EUR / USD - Weekly forecast - Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast (Daily TF):
1.0777 is a major resistance, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be downtrend.
A peak is formed in daily chart at 1.0629 on 12/06/2024, so more losses to support(s) 1.0332, 1.0206, 1.0002 and more depths is expected.
Trading suggestion:
There is possibility of temporary retracement to suggested Trend Hunter Sell Zone (1.0669 to 1.0777). We wait during the retracement, until the price tests the zone, whether approaching, touching or entering the zone.
We would set sell orders based on Daily-Trading-Opportunities and expect to reach short-term targets.
Beginning of entry zone (1.0669)
Ending of entry zone (1.0777)
Take Profits:
1.0600
1.0517
1.0445
1.0332
1.0206
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Candlestick Analysis
Strategy 2025. BTC Airless Scenario Below $100'000 Choking PointThe crypto market is flashing a worrying outlook for 2025, since a disappointing Santa Claus rally this year could deepen issues.
This is especially important if BTC will not be able to finish the year 2024 firmly above $100'000 per coin.
The financial market has had a tough week, but it might also be in store for a tough year in 2025.
The market is on track for its worst weeks over years after the Federal Reserve gave a hawkish forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025. But looking at the market's internals, it's clear that damage had been inflicted well before the Fed's Wednesday meeting—and the signal is a historic indicator of tough times ahead.
The number of stocks in Top Stock Club S&P 500 that are declining outpaced advancing stocks for 14 consecutive days on Thursday.
The advancing/declining data helps measure underlying participation in market moves, and the recent weakness signals that even though the S&P 500 is only off 4% from its record high, there's damage under the hood of the benchmark index.
This is evidenced by the equal-weighted S&P 500 index being off 7% from its record high.
According to Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research, the 14-day losing streak for the S&P 500's advance-decline line is the worst since October 15, 1978.
Clissold said 10-day losing streaks or more in advancing stocks relative to declining stocks can be a bad omen for future stock market returns.
While this scenario has only been triggered six times since 1972, it shows lackluster forward returns for the S&P 500. The index has printed an average six-month forward return of 0.1% after these 10-day breadth losing streaks flashed, compared to the typical 4.5% average gain seen during all periods.
"Studies with six cases hardly make for a strategy. But market tops have to start somewhere, and many begin with breadth divergences, or popular averages posting gains with few stocks participating," Clissold said.
Perhaps more telling for the stock market is whether it can stage a recovery as it heads into one of the most bullish seasonal periods of the year: the Santa Claus trading window.
If it can't, that would be telling, according to Clissold.
"A lack of a Santa Claus Rally would be concerning not only from a seasonal perspective, but it would allow breadth divergences to deepen," the strategist said.
Also concerning to Clissold is investor sentiment, which has flashed signs of extreme optimism since September. According to the research firm's internal crowd sentiment poll, it is in the seventh-longest stretch in the excessive optimism zone, based on data since 1995.
"Several surveys have reached what could be unsustainable levels," Clissold said, warning that any reversal in sentiment could be a warning sign for future market returns.
Ultimately, continued stock market weakness, especially in the internals, would suggest to Clissold that 2025 won't be as easy as 2024 for investors.
"If the stock market cannot rectify recent breadth divergences in the next few weeks, it would suggest our concerns about a more difficult 2025 could come to fruition," the strategist said.
Moreover, Dow Jones index has printed recently The Three Black Crows Bearish candlestick pattern, on weekly basis.
This is especially important, since mentioned above pattern is massively unwinding from Dow's all the history highs.
Previously this pattern has already appeared in TVC:DJI in November 2021 and lead to 20 percent decline in 2022 for Dow Jones Index and to more than 70 percent decline in BTC.
The Three Black Crows Bearish candlestick pattern also has appeared in Dow Jones Index in September, 2018 (lead to 18% decline) and in July, 2007 (lead to more than 50% decline).
The main technical graph represents a Choking Strategy for BTC in 2025, i.e. BTC airless scenario below $100'000 choking point.
The epic 52-week SMA breakthrough in BTC will definitely accelerate a decline at all.
GBP/CAD LONGSI think GBP/CAD has a good potential for more upside. The weekly and daily bother look great and having pulled into the daily support I was ready to look for entry. I took an entry based on a 1h confirmation but I still think there will be a bit of a pullback going into next week before getting the bigger push to the target
USD/ZAR LONGThis is not really a currency I trade much much everything lines up for a trade to the upside. I have weekly daily and 4h timeframes as bullish and we have pulled back to a pretty well respected daily zone. So on Sunday/Monday I’ll be looking for potential entry opportunities to take it to the next higher high
Buy under 100K and Target 125K by Jan 20Simple strategy of buying bitcoin when it's trading under 100K leading up to Trump Presidency, I don't see why Bitcoin can't continue to 125K by Jan 20 (Trump inauguration). Fed went from from dovish to dovish/neutral in my opinion, not hawkish. This is a buying opportunity and the strong reversal forming a bullish hammer after the cooling PCE report today is the confirmation to continue buying BTC here.
SMART BUY LIMIT from my past experience I know from a fact that it is going to retest no matter the condition. why? LIQUIDATION bby ! I know that entering now might cancel me out on various FVG so where do I feel safe and confident about my trade and risk management for sure I feel safe @0.000391 LOWEST LOW here my risk management is low and I feel less anxious lets see how it plays out TRADERS> God Bless
Devyani International can give a tasty breakout. Devyani International Ltd. engages in the development and operation of quick service restaurant. It operates through Within India and Outside India segments. The company manages brands like Costa Coffee, KFC, Pizza Hut, Vangoo and The Good Street.
Devyani International Ltd. CMP is 172.37. The Positive aspects of the company is Company with Zero Promoter Pledge and increasing revenues for last 4 Quarters. Book value of the share is also increasing for the last 2 years. The Negative aspects of the company are extremely high Valuation (P.E. = 644.2), Companies Increasing Debt as per Annual Report, Declining Net Cash Flow : Companies not able to generate net cash.
Entry can be taken after closing above 174 Targets in the stock will be 181, 188 and 198. The long-term target in the stock will be 205, 218 and 223. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 167 or 158 depending on your risk taking ability.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Cyient DLM looking like it will deliver. Cyient DLM Ltd. engages in providing total electronic manufacturing solutions. It operates through the following segments: Aerospace and Defense, Medical, Industrial, and Transportation and Telecom. It offers design-led manufacturing (DLM) solutions.
Cyient DLM Ltd. CMP is 677.85. The Positive aspects of the company are Company with Low Debt, Company with Zero Promoter Pledge. The Negative aspects of the company are extremely high Valuation (P.E. = 79.8) and Inefficient use of shareholder funds.
Entry can be taken after closing above 686 Targets in the stock will be 722, 747 and 775. The long-term target in the stock will be 802, 841 and 869. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 649 or 599 depending on your risk taking ability.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Nifty Short Term Analysis. Nifty today has given a poor closing below 200 days EMA but the only saving grace can be that the closing is just above Mid-Channel support of 23500 and Important Fibonacci support of 23263.
These Two supports are broken then more hell can break loose and we can get to see the next Fibonacci supports being tested. The next Fibonacci supports can be near 22509 or 21585. On the positive side if either of the support is held and then we can see a new rally in Nifty wit resistances at 24718 and 25347. It looks like Nifty will take some time to reach new highs as the the mode is bottom searching and consolidation as of now.
Fresh rally and Bullish recovery can start only after we get a closing above these 2 levels. However, this can be a good time to go long by picking good blue chip stocks available at good valuations.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
AUDJPY moving downwards.Rejected +/- 4 times daily open (not having strength to reach it), + rejected NY High.
From JPY 98.00 - 96.900\800
To try and recover the 2 imbalanced candles on the 15M TF
Note: Risky Trade as RSI is also on the 50% line
I am thinking that the mean reversion is in play. IMO, not financial advise.
NILI.V Possible Trend Reversal & Entry - First AnalysisNILI.V (Surge Battery Metals)
Candlesticks:
This past week NILI.V closed Thursday with a dragonfly doji candle, followed by a bullish engulfing on friday. The last time a dragonfly doji appeared was on September 9th, which marked a trend reversal that resulted in a 90% in price over 45 days.
Technical Indicators:
MACD on the daily is about to crossover indicating a possible shift in momentum from bearish to bullish.
Possible Entry:
looking for a confirmation on the trend reversal on Monday with a candle closing above the downward channel that Nili has been trading in over the past couple weeks. If that happens I will take a long position and be looking for profit taking opportunities at .40, .45, and .50 cent price ranges.
I am new to trading and this is my first analysis. Let me know what you think and if I got anything wrong here, any feedback is appreciated!
EURCHF Wave Analysis 20 December 2024
- EURCHF falling inside minor impulse wave 5
- Likely to fall to support level 0.9250
EURCHF currency pair continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 5, which started earlier from the pivotal resistance level 0.9430 (standing well above the upper daily Bollinger Band), which has been reversing the price from the start of October.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.9430 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing.
Given the overriding daily downtrend and the strongly bullish Swiss franc sentiment seen today, EURCHF currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.9250, low of the earlier minor correction b.
Three Year Parallel Channel of Nifty with Multiple indicators. We have tried to draw a Three Year Parallel Channel of Nifty with Multiple indicators. We will try to understand what is happening as per each indicator and try to get the jist of moves that may occur with a medium to long term perspective.
Indicator 1) Parallel Channel: The parallel channel indicates that after hitting the channel top at 26277 the Nifty is receding and is on a search of it's bottom from where it can launch forward again. That is the case when every time Nifty has it a channel top as you can see in the chart. The Future Channel Top once Nifty picks up the next Bull run seems to be around 29497 as per the parallel channel. Mid channel support of the parallel channel is around 23500 zone which can support Nifty. If we get a weekly closing below 23500 this level will become a resistance. In such a scenario of weekly closing below 23500 Channel bottom seems to be near 21296.
Indicator 2) Fibonacci Retracement: Fibonacci retracement suggests a bottom near 23263. If this level is broken there is a possibility of Nifty falling to the next fibonacci supports will be at 22506 and 21577. Once the Bull run begins the next resistance levels as per Fibonacci seem to be at 24725, 26777 (Previous high), 27162 and finally 28331.
Indicator 3) Bollinger Band: Support with respect to lower width of Bollinger Band seems to be near 23340. Mid Bollinger band resistance seems to be near 24660 and Bollinger band upper width resistances seems to be near 25981.
Indicator 4) RSI or the Relative Strength Index: RSI currently is at 44.41 and going downwards showing weakness. The RSI support can be found in the zone of 40, 38 or 36. Usually When RSI is below 30 the stock or index is considered oversold and when the stock or index RSI is above 70 it is considered overbought. RSI Below 20 is extremely oversold zone and RSI above 80 is considered extremely overbought.
Indicator 5) MACD or Moving Average Convergence and Divergence: MACD is a combination of Moving averages lines which tend to indicate direction in which stock or index will move and histograms indicate strength or weakness of a rally. As per MACD Nifty right now is in extreme Bear grip and will take a little time to recover. When the Blue line will start moving upwards and when it might cross the red line and continue to move upwards it can be considered as Nifty will come back to Bull Zone. Colour of histograms at that time will also start going Dark Green or light Green.
Indicator 6) 50 and 200 weeks EMA or the Mother and Father line: I have designed a theory called Mother, Father and Small Child Theory. As per this theory the movement of index or a stock in the chart is like a movement of a 3 year old child when it goes to a garden. The movement of 50 EMA is like movement of the mother and movement of the 200 EMA is like movement of a Father of that child. To know more about this theory or other indicators mentioned earlier you need to read my book THE HAPPY CANDLES WAY TO WEALTH CREATION. This book is available in Amazon in paperback or Kindle version. It is one of the Highest rated book in the category. Have a look at that book it will help you immensely in your wealth creation journey. Now as per this theory the Nifty right now is at 23587. 50 Weeks EMA is at 23403. 200 Weeks EMA is at 19335. as the Nifty is above these levels both these levels will work as a great support to Nifty and can help Nifty from falling further.
Conclusion: Nifty is approaching multiple supports from where it has potential to turnaround. Mid channel support is around 23500, 50 Weeks EMA support or the Mother line is at 23403. 23340 is the Bollinger band lower band width support. Fibonacci support is at 23263. We can see a turnaround mostly from either of these three supports. If these supports are broken by chance (looks less likely but you can never say never) then the next supports will be at 22507, 21296 or worst case scenario as of now looks like 19335. On the upper side resistances seem to be at 24660 Fibonacci mid resistance, 24725 is the Fibonacci resistance, 25981 is Bollinger band upper width resistance and 26277 is the Fibonacci resistnace which also the previous high of Nifty. Once this zone is crossed in a long term we can reach the targets of 27162 Fibonacci resistance, 28331 Fibonacci golden ratio resistnace and 29497 which is the approximate nex channel top. (This is the Medium to Long term outlook of Nifty).
This is how you can analyse any index or a stock using the 6 indicators mentioned in the writeup. I give top most priority to these 6 indicators in my analysis.
Disclaimer: Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Incoming $1trillion dollar correction for crypto people... ** weeks ahead **
Is the market top in? This next move in the market will certainly convince the crypto folks that it is.
According to social media, Youtube influencers etc.. the bull run is just beginning.
That is in despite of a swathe of News article headlines “Bitcoin reaches new all time high $100k” and the janitor I have not spoken to in 10 years asking me if I'm buying Bitcoin.
The signs are there.
On the above 6 day chart, the TOTAL crypto market capitalisation, currently 3.57 trillion dollars price action has risen 46% since the November breakout. A number of reasons now exist for a bearish outlook:
1) Price action and RSI support breakdowns. Indeed the November breakouts requires confirmation of support on past resistance to allow for continuation. That's a long way down.
2) Support is exactly $1 trillion below at $2.57 trillion.
3) Price action is at a significant Fibonacci extension, look left.
4) This signal is found across the entire crypto market on both 6 day and weekly charts, in other words there is confluence across timeframes. That is important.
Is it possible speculators keep throwing good money after bad in the hope price go up? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Bulls make money.
Bears make money.
Pigs get slaughtered.
TOTAL3 - Hanging man
OTHERS total - Hanging man
GBPAUD: Strong Resistance in Play – What’s Next?Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** GBPAUD Analysis !
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Long trade
1Hr TF entry
Buyside trade
Mon 16th Dec
LND to Ny Session AM
8.00 am
Entry 1.49665
Profit level 1.51248 (1.06%)
Stop level 1.49231 (0.29%)
RR 3.65
Reason: Overview of the 1Hr TF we buyside momentum indicates buyside pressure since Mon 16th Dec 24, and narrative based on supply and demand for directional bias.
Long trade
4Hr TF overview
Trade Setup Breakdown:
Trade Type: Buyside (Long position)
Date: Monday, December 16, 2024
Time: 5:00 AM
Timeframe: 4-hour (4H) chart
Session: Tokyo to London (AM session)
Entry 1.42471
Profit level 1.45600 (2.20%)
Stop level 1.42119 (0.25%)
RR 8.89
Reason: Overlooking the 4Hr TF and monitoring USDCAD indicates buyside momentum at this time.