Candlestick Analysis
AMD - Weekly ChannelsLooking at AMD for potential long position. Previous times playing downward channels AMD usually breaks out of the channel on the 4th retest of bottom part of channel.
Could Enter on 3rd test with tight stop and early scales marked in orange.
With recent hawkish Fed on 12/18, we may see more downside (a 4th test) before a breakout from the channel.
Short trade
Day - Structure
1Hr entry
Pair NZDUSD
Sellside
Mon 16th Dec 24
LND to NY Session AM
8.00 am (NY time)
Entry 0.57716
Profit level 0.55994 (2.98%)
Stop level 0.58005 (0.50%)
RR 5.96
Reason: Price seems to be printing sell-side delivery, intending to balance out the price range and complete the cycle, chasing buy-side liquidity, in my humble opinion.
Can The Major Support Zone Save Nifty From Falling Further?There is a triple Support zone that has been reached by Nifty. The Zone between today's low that is 23870 and 23692 has multiple supports of a trend line and Father Line of 200 day's EMA. Let us see if we have a revival from here. If that will be the case the next resistance zones will be 24019, 24175, 24416(Major Mother Line Resistance of 50 day's EMA) and 24529 (Major Trend Line Resistance).
If the support of 23870 is broken we will have to rely upon 23962 that is the major 200 day's EMa of Father line. If we get a closing below 23692 or the Father line. Bears will become more powerful and we may see them control the game. In such a scenario the supports will be at 23350, 23088 and 22828. So very critical weekly closing tomorrow. Shadow of the candle for tomorrow is neutral to negative.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Beyond Basic Candlestick Pattern AnalysisLearning to Recognize Who Is Controlling the Stock Price
There is a plethora of training on Candlestick Pattern Analysis and interpretation, and yet this remains one of the most problematic areas for Technical Traders who want to trade at the expert level.
Once the basics of Japanese Candlestick Patterns are understood, it is time to move up to the next tier of analysis. That is being able to recognize not only where a pattern is, but also who forms that pattern, why they are capable of creating that pattern, what automated orders generate that pattern, and which Market Participant Groups react or chase that pattern.
Nowadays it has become critical to include Volume with Candlestick Analysis, because this provides the basis for recognizing which Market Participant Group created that candle pattern.
Candlestick Pattern Analysis at the expert level involves more than just one to three candles. Instead it includes a larger group of candles in the near term. This is what I call "Relational Analysis." This is especially useful for Swing Traders, Momentum Traders, Velocity Traders, Swing Options Traders, and Day Traders using Swing Style Intraday action.
The NYSE:RAMP chart is an excellent example of a Candlestick Pattern for Swing Style Trading.
See where High Frequency Traders (HFTs) took control of price, and gapped the stock down for one day on extreme volume. Selling did not continue the following two days, and Volume was above the Moving Average, but much lower than the High Frequency Traders' spiking Volume pattern.
This was the first accumulation level for this stock. Dark Pools started buying the stock even though High Frequency Traders were selling, since they typically miss this initial buy mode of the giant Institutions.
High Frequency Traders typically create the final gap down to the low which, if it reverses quickly, indicates a Buy Zone area for the Dark Pools. These patterns are what I call "Shifts of Sentiment." They happen in bottom formations where buying is generally dominated by the Largest Institutions' quiet accumulation.
The next phase will be when Professional Traders and then High Frequency Traders discover the Dark Pool accumulation. The bottom is not complete, but it shifts sideways if more Dark Pools decide to buy.
POLKADOT- BUY HIGH, SELL HIGHERIn the midst of chaos, I've decided to increase my position in Polkadot, as I've been holding since $5.82. The structure continues to show bullish signals, and we’re still in a bull market. Moreover, the Christmas and New Year rally hasn’t even started yet.
For traders feeling anxious right now, it's better to step away from the screen and avoid making impulsive decisions. For those focused on knowledge and strategy, there’s no better moment to consider opening a long position—fully aware of the possibility that your stop-loss might be hit.
Trade Management:
Entry: $7 or market price
Stop-loss: $6.31 (keeping the previous position intact)
Remember to control your emotions and avoid overtrading. Maintaining liquidity is crucial—don’t put all your capital at risk. Protect your psychology and trust your skills. Don’t let the market shake your confidence in what you know works.
I’m sticking to my plan, as mentioned in my previous idea. Nothing changes if you follow your plan.
May God bless you all.
Jay
Missed Trade Recap: EURUSD - SHORT, 19/12/2024EU Bias Analysis: Daily EPD had been achieved on the minor range and the 4H had established a bearish pro-trend. After reading between the messy price actions lines, I confirmed that short entries were in line with the 1H bearish range. Price pulled back to equilibrium at 50% and the short position could've been executed after entry confirmation.
Grade: High Risk
Why I Missed This Position:
- This position was a high risk trade, and as I'm currently in phase 2 of the trait building protocol, I am only permitted to take low risk variations.
- A low risk variation of this position would've seen price retrace to at least the 70.5% fib level without displacing and forming 1-sided FVG's. Once a 1H or 4H KI area was mitigated, I would then require an internal sweep of TBL on the 15M timeframe to satisfy trade parameters.
AES Corporation - Short term view with strong supportSo first of all both price and indicators are confirming the downtrend.
Today NYSE:AES opened with a gap succeeding yesterday's equilibrium in price with doji candles.
The price is still in the middle of the regression line and in the next few days the price don't seems to be close to upper 2 SD.
In the print above the yellow line shows the support at $11.43. The image's time horizon starts at the end of 2006.
Furthermore looking at short ratio available online the value is about 2,7 from mid October as well as more than 22M short interest
EURGBP Wave Analysis 19 December 2024
- EURGBP reversed from support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8300
EURGBP currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone located between the key support level 0.8225 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave i) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this from the support zone is likely to form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing – of the pair closes today near the current levels.
Given the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic, EURGBP currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.8300.
USDCHF: Bullish Move Confirmed 🇺🇸🇨🇭
It looks like a local correctional movement is over on USDCHF
and the pair is returning to a bullish trend.
The release of the today's US fundamentals made the pair
violate a resistance line of a narrow consolidation range on an hourly.
The price will most likely go up to 0.9007 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
NZDCAD SHORT Market structure bearish on HTFs 30
Entry at both Daily and Weekly AOi
Weekly Rejection from AOi
Bearish Harami formed on the Weekly
Daily Rejection from AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 0.82500
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 6.05
Entry 100%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King
After the Fed’s Rate Cut: Gold’s Price Action and What’s NextYesterday was another wildly volatile day for OANDA:XAUUSD , with prices dropping approximately 600 pips following the Fed's rate cut.
After breaking below the 2645-2650 confluence support on Tuesday, the market entered a day of consolidation with a tight trading range.
However, the calm didn’t last long...
Yesterday's sharp decline took prices below the 2610-2615 technical support zone and even breached the critical 2600 level.
Overnight, Gold rebounded back above 2600, but in my opinion, this recovery is likely a normal retracement and does not signal a bottom for the yellow metal.
For bears, the sell zone begins at 2620 and extends slightly past 2630, accounting for the heightened volatility. This area presents an opportunity to look for short entries. The initial target for this move would be yesterday's low, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gold drop further toward the 2525 key support level in the near future.
As long as prices remain below the 2650-2660 resistance range, the outlook for XauUsd stays firmly bearish .
$2800- $3000: how does gold hold steady amid global uncertainty?Gold has once again emerged as a focal point in global financial markets, gaining significant attention from investors amidst economic instability and geopolitical tensions. In 2024, the price of gold increased by over 28%, reaffirming its role as a reliable asset for capital preservation during uncertain times. Below, we explore the primary factors influencing gold prices, investment strategies, and future prospects for this precious metal.
What Drives Gold Prices?
1. Geopolitical Tensions as a Catalyst:
Political and military conflicts , such as those in the Middle East, amplify the appeal of gold as a "safe haven."
During periods of uncertainty, gold becomes a hedge against shocks in the global economy, prompting higher demand from both individual investors and institutions.
2. Impact of U.S. Federal Reserve Policy:
The Federal Reserve's monetary decisions significantly influence gold prices.
The current economic environment, shaped by pressure for lower interest rates, benefits gold as an asset class.
Under the influence of a potentially “dovish” U.S. administration, expectations of sustained inflation and reduced rates create a favorable backdrop for gold.
3. Increased Central Bank Purchases:
Central banks worldwide have been actively boosting their gold reserves.
Gold serves as a hedge against inflation and currency fluctuations, particularly for economies in regions like India and the Middle East, where the metal holds cultural and financial significance.
Investment Opportunities in Gold
Investing in gold offers diverse options, each catering to different risk appetites and levels of expertise:
• Gold ETFs:
Exchange-traded funds are an accessible entry point for novice investors due to their simplicity and low barriers to entry.
These funds allow investors to gain exposure to gold without the complexities of physical ownership.
• Shares of Gold Mining Companies:
Stocks in companies like Newmont (USA), Barrick Gold (Canada), and Freeport-McMoRan (USA) offer potential for higher returns compared to direct gold investments.
However, they come with added risks due to market volatility and company-specific factors.
• Gold Futures:
Futures contracts enable investors to lock in prices and mitigate volatility.
This strategy is best suited for experienced investors who understand market dynamics and risk management.
Outlook for 2025
The combination of geopolitical instability, high inflation, and low interest rates sets the stage for continued growth in gold prices. Over the next six months, gold prices are projected to reach $2800 per ounce. While crossing the $3000 mark may seem overly optimistic, it remains a possibility under certain geopolitical scenarios.
As global economic uncertainties persist, gold's role as a stable and reliable investment is likely to strengthen, ensuring its continued relevance in diversified portfolios.
NYSE:NEM
TSX:ABX
NYSE:FCX
EconOptic| We are still in the ascending channel Bitcoin Analysis in the 4-Hour Timeframe
Yesterday, Bitcoin experienced a price correction, reaching the lower boundary of the ascending channel, as the midline of the channel lacked sufficient strength to support the price.
The observed correction and decline were stronger than the previous upward wave, which may indicate the sellers' dominance. However, since the price remains within an ascending channel and the overall trend is bullish, I do not recommend opening short positions at this time.
My first trigger for a short position would be a lower high formation and a confirmed break below the ascending channel's bottom line.
For long positions, the safest entry remains above the green line at **107,538**. Alternatively, another viable option could be waiting for price consolidation and the formation of a new breakout trigger, likely around the midline of the ascending channel. This scenario would be ideal if accompanied by a decrease in red candle volume and an increase in green candle volume, signaling momentum building in favor of the trend.
i recommend you to use safe stoploss .
Conclusion:
While the recent correction suggests increasing selling pressure, the overall bullish trend and channel structure indicate better opportunities for long positions. A confirmed breakout trigger with momentum support will provide the most favorable entry for buyers.
Thank you for reading this analysis.
-EconOptic
Silver Rebound Offers Short Trade Potential: Targeting $28In my weekend analysis, I highlighted the potential formation of a Head and Shoulders pattern in Silver's price, with the neckline positioned precisely at the psychologically significant $30 level.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve’s rate cut triggered a drop below this key level. Currently, OANDA:XAGUSD is experiencing a normal rebound.
This rebound may provide traders with an opportunity to consider short positions if the broken $30 level is retested.
The next significant support level is at $28, which could serve as the target for this potential move.
From Decline to Opportunity: Total3 Poised for RecoveryAfter breaking below the critical $1.04T support level yesterday, Total3 experienced a sharp decline, finding its footing at a key horizontal support level.
This drop coincided with many altcoins also reaching their respective support zones. For traders, this presented an attractive opportunity to enter the market at more favorable prices, effectively halting the downward momentum.
Currently, the chart shows a promising reversal forming. As long as this horizontal support level holds, there is a strong likelihood of continued upward movement, potentially paving the way for a new all-time high.
Trading Silver: Sell Rallies Amid XAG/USD’s Bearish MomentumLast week, OANDA:XAGUSD made several attempts to break through the 32.30 resistance zone but failed to sustain any momentum. Much like the price action in OANDA:XAUUSD , Thursday was marked by a bearish engulfing candle, which was even more significant given the preceding day's Doji formation. Following the formation of this bearish engulfing candle, the price dropped sharply, reaching a local low around the 30.30 level, marking a 2,000-pip drop from the previous high.
The structure forming since mid-September resembles a potential head and shoulders pattern, although it has not been confirmed yet.
If the price breaks below the 30.00 zone, it could put further pressure on the selling side, triggering more downside momentum. In this scenario, the next key support level to watch would be around 27.80, with the measured target for the pattern being approximately 25.00.
At this point, resistance is positioned at 31.50, and any rallies approaching this level should be viewed as potential selling opportunities. Sellers may look to capitalize on these rallies, anticipating a continuation of the downtrend.
Additionally, the bearish outlook is reinforced by a bearish Pin Bar on the weekly chart, which adds further weight to the negative bias. This combination of factors—bearish patterns on both the daily and weekly charts—suggests that the downward pressure could persist, with further downside potential for XAG/USD in the near term.
In summary, traders should remain cautious about buying in the current environment. Instead, the focus should be on selling rallies, especially near key resistance levels, while keeping an eye on the 30.00 support level as a key area for potential breakdown.