XAGUSD - Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels.
In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower, this indicates on probable distribution Wyckoff range.
But to take more statistically probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and in this case we can notice sign of weakness (reaching the middle of the range), so potentially there is a higher probability to see price lower.
Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Commodities
Gold breaks up, can it test the previous high?
Recently, gold has maintained an upward channel and fluctuated upward, and the overall trend is strong. From the hourly line, the gold price has continued to fluctuate higher since the 2615 line, and has now broken through the top pressure of the upward channel, forming a typical top-bottom conversion structure. The key support below is in the 2676-2678 area. In the Asian session, gold fell slightly from the high level and received support at the 2680 line. It rebounded again in the short term and is currently testing the 2700 line of resistance.
From a technical perspective, gold is still in an upward break structure as a whole, and the short-term long and short key points are concentrated in the 2680-2676 area. If the price stabilizes in this range, it is expected to continue to rise in the future, with the target pointing to the two strong resistance areas of 2725 and 2750; on the contrary, if it falls below this range, it may return to the previous channel, with a bearish trend, and further move down to the 2664 line.
In the short term, although gold has failed to rise many times, showing the characteristics of "slow rise and fast fall", the upward breakout pattern has not been destroyed, and the price structure is still bullish. In terms of operation ideas, it should be mainly low-long, combined with high-short strategies to respond flexibly.
Summary: The current upward breakout pattern of gold has not changed. In terms of operation, it is advisable to mainly do more at low levels. If the high level is under pressure, you can try shorting with a light position, strictly control risks, and pay attention to the breakthrough of key intervals.
Trading strategy recommendations
Short strategy
Layout area: Gold rises to 2700 and is under pressure, and short orders can be arranged.
Stop loss setting: above 2715.
Target position: First target: 2675, observe the support strength. If it falls below 2675, look further down to the 2664 area.
Long strategy
Layout area: After gold adjusts to the 2675-2680 area and stabilizes, long orders are arranged.
Stop loss setting: below 2664.
Target: First target: 2690 Second target: 2700 is further expected to 2725-2750 after breaking through.
Risk warning
The trend of gold is currently affected by both technical and emotional factors, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the performance of key support and resistance levels. At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of fundamental factors such as the US dollar index and economic data on gold prices and adjust strategies in a timely manner.
Gold key levels with both buy and sell entries 12/01 to 17/01Gold key support and resistance levels for the coming week .
Ill look to enter a buy at 2692 monitering support and resistance levels to the upside.
For a sell my entry would be 2684 .
For Gold we have seen a rise after a strong drop , we have retraced from 2600 to 2690/91 area now we could see a correction to the downside again.
As always trade safe wait for levels and conformation of entry.
This is not finincial advice mearly shareing my technical analasis on gold for the coming week
WTI Oil Short: Bearish Setup After Sharp RallyOil prices have surged impressively, fueled by recent fundamental-driven market moves. However, this swift upside has led WTI crude to my point of interest, offering a prime opportunity to short against the trend. My trade strategy includes taking partials at the $74 price zone. Here’s why this setup is supported by bearish fundamentals:
1. Rising U.S. Fuel Inventories
Recent data shows significant growth in U.S. gasoline and distillate stockpiles, hinting at a potential oversupply in the market.
2. Strengthening U.S. Dollar
A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing global demand and weighing on prices.
3. Increased Non-OPEC Supply
With rising production levels from non-OPEC countries, analysts expect an oversupplied market in 2025, adding further pressure on oil prices.
4. Weakening Global Demand
Economic growth concerns in major markets like China and Germany are fostering expectations of reduced oil demand, reinforcing a bearish outlook.
These combined factors strongly support a short position on WTI crude oil. Stay strategic, take profits along the way, and manage your risk carefully in this volatile environment!
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
A Bullish Momentum Ahead! XAU/USDH1 Analysis - Current Price: $2687
Gold has been climbing steadily over the past few days, and the daily (D1) bias remains bullish. My weekly analysis suggests that the market is likely to reach $2760 this week, with strong bullish momentum.
For now, with the daily close at $2697, I expect a minor correction towards the H1 unmitigated order block. Notably, this order block coincides with a trendline. If prices bounce from this demand zone, there are two key levels where the market could face resistance:
The first resistance is at the trendline, between $2703 and $2706.
The second resistance zone is between $2710 and $2715, where we have an H4 Fair Value Gap (FVG) and an order block. At this point, a small correction could occur again.
Let's observe how the price reacts to these zones and monitor the potential upward movement. Always remember to conduct your own analysis before making any trading decisions.
XAGUSD - Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels.
In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower, this indicates on probable distribution Wyckoff range.
But to take more statistically probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and in this case we can notice sign of weakness (reaching the middle of the range), so potentially there is a higher probability to see price lower.
Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Trend analysis and buy signalsThe negative non-agricultural data on Friday did not cause a fall, but the bulls started a surge mode. In the intraday, it not only hit the previous high pressure of 2693, but also returned to the vicinity of the 2700 mark. Although it failed to break through the 2700 mark in the end, the technical form also highlighted the fact that the decline has stopped and is favorable to the bulls.
First of all, looking at the weekly line, the weekly line has closed positively for consecutive weeks, and this week closed a long lower shadow line. The bulls do have an advantage. In addition, the short-term moving average keeps moving upward and other periodic indicators, as well as the Bollinger Bands, are also intended to move upward, so the overall weekly line can be expected to be strong. The bulls can launch a strong counterattack at any time.
Gold non-agricultural data is bearish, and gold has bottomed out and rebounded. Gold rose again under the stimulation of risk aversion in the US market on Friday. The short-term pressure is under the resistance of the 2700 mark, and the short-term pressure is adjusted. However, the bullish trend of gold is still there. Continue to buy when it falls back this week!
Just don't chase the rise in the short term under pressure at 2700. If gold breaks through 2700 further under the stimulus of risk aversion, then gold will fall back and continue to follow up and go long. If it cannot break through, then gold will wait patiently for low points to buy. Gold stopped at 2663 after the negative non-agricultural data on Friday. Gold bought on dips above 2663 this week. The gold moving average support now moves up to 2672. Wait for 2672 to enter the market first.
First support: 2685, second support: 2672, third support: 2666
First resistance: 2700, second resistance: 2715, third resistance: 2726
Operation ideas:
BUY: 2672-2675
SELL: 2708-2710
GOLD Will Move Higher! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for GOLD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 2,681.093.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 2,705.266 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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Natural Gas Short: Testing the $4 Barrier – Opportunity Knocks!Natural Gas (XNG/USD) has spiked to revisit the $4 price zone, activating my short trade. This marks the second time in two years that the price has reached this significant resistance area. The $4 level is pivotal, serving as a key psychological barrier and a historic zone of strong price action. With the position now live, I am leveraging the resistance for a retracement opportunity.
Fundamentals:
• Weather and Seasonal Demand: Short-term spikes in demand are driven by cold weather in the U.S., but with futures traders starting to focus on spring, we may see waning bullish momentum in the coming weeks.
• Russian Gas Supply Constraints: Limited Russian gas flows to the EU continue to add uncertainty to the market, but the current rally seems to be pricing in short-term factors rather than long-term structural changes.
• Historical Levels: The $4 spot price has attracted significant attention as a resistance zone, with $3.40 acting as a key support in recent months. The bounce from this level earlier this year highlights its importance.
• Market Behavior: Futures traders’ sentiment and seasonality are critical drivers. As winter progresses, reduced speculative demand may favor a bearish pullback.
Technicals:
• Entry: $4.00 (Resistance Zone)
• Target: $2.60 - 2.70
• Partials: From $3,19
• Stop Loss: $4.40 (Above Recent Highs)
• Timeframe: 12H
This short trade aligns with technical, fundamental, and seasonal narratives. As the price has shown rejection at this zone, I will actively monitor for a breakdown toward the $3.40 level while managing risk prudently. Stay disciplined, follow your trading plan, and remember to pay yourself as the market unfolds.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
USOIL Short Setup: Key Zone to WatchUSOIL is testing a significant resistance zone around the 78.00 level, an area where price previously faced strong selling pressure. Current price action suggests potential exhaustion, with signs of rejection visible.
If sellers take control, a pullback toward the 76.01 level, acting as the first key support, could be in play. Traders should look for bearish confirmation, such as reversal candlestick patterns or breakdowns below recent lows, to position for a potential short move.
GOLD BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello, Friends!
GOLD uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 2,655.537 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the GOLD pair.
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Crude Oil breaks and follows projectionAfter the long consolidation time, CL finally broke the Trend-Barrier (TB) and is now on the move to the upside.
It's not stupid to aim for the 1/4 line as PTG1.
But for sure I would only close a portion of the position, since the upside potential is far higher.
And if you don't know how much to bank, just go with 50% of your investment. If it's going higher, you're still participating from the move.
If it goes sour, you have already banked 50%.
Just create a plan and follow it.
XAUUSD Channel Up pull-back and then new High.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a short-term Channel Up on the 4H time-frame since the December 26 2024 High. It just formed a 4H Golden Cross, which gives the medium-term a stronger bullish potential but on the short-term, it is highly likely to see the Channel Up first pull-back on a new Bearish Leg to test the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
That will be the best buy opportunity (assuming the candles close within the Channel Up) and aim for a new Higher High near Resistance 1 at 2725.
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New Quarterly Shift Analysis for XAUUSDThis post is based on my learnings from ICT Quarterly Shift Analysis teachings.
In September 2024, I published my quarterly shift analysis for #Gold. Back then, I estimated a shift in the market structure for Gold on or around the US Presidential Election date. It happened exactly as outlined. I estimated Gold to make a bear move or to create a large range, it did indeed created large range and has been moving within the range since then. The top of the range is 2790.10 and the bottom of the range is 2536.60.
For the new quarter, I expect Gold to make a new market structure shift during the week of President Trump's inauguration, specially on the Inauguration Date (20 January 2025).
During this critical period (from 20th to 31st January 2025), If Gold closes a strong bull candle above 2790.10, then I expect Gold to move towards new highs (2828, 2918 and 3000) in the next three-four months.
BUT, if Gold closes a strong bear candle below 2536.60, then I expect Gold to move towards 2480, 2340, and 2200 in the next three-four months.
Since US Elections, Gold has created more bearish indications compared to bullish indications, therefore, I am more in the favor of a bearish move, but I will wait for price confirmations to make up my final decision during the Inauguration Week.
Disclaimer: This is not a signal, just an analysis for your consideration and benefit. Please mix it with your own analysis.
Gold Race to 3,000: Rates, Politics, and BeyondAs visible on daily TF ,Key resistance levels 2720 were challenged two times already. A clean breakout above 2720 could lead to further bullish momentum also we have seen that the price recently retraced to 2,538 and 2,583 levels, forming bullish pullbacks before continuing upward, The corrective pullbacks appear to be shallow, indicating strong bullish momentum.
Based on Fibonacci extensions and historical price action, a bullish move toward the psychological level of 3,000 seems possible.
so with all this talk about the Fed cutting rates, FOMC's moves, there's a real buzz around gold hitting 3,000. Lower interest rates mean less reason to hold onto cash or bonds, making gold look pretty attractive. If Trump's policies stir up inflation or global uncertainty, even better for gold.
gold's been on a nice climb last week, bouncing back from where it should dip, which suggests there's strong buying interest. If it keeps this up, breaking past the current highs near 2790, we might just see it hit that 3,000 mark. But remember, this is all speculative; gold can be as unpredictable as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs. Keep an eye on those FOMC meetings and any geopolitical drama; that's where the real action could come from.
Scenarios for buying Gold!Hello Everyone,
Dear Traders,
A triangle was formed for Gold
After the break TP could be around top of this Channel
However, an overbought witnessed in the LTF.
We might see some corrections here!
This could be the potential channel in future moves of the gold.
Two possible setups:
1-You can buy now and hope for sharp moves and your TP would be around top of channel.
2-You can wait for bottom of bullish potential LTF channel and set the TP as mid of the long-term channel
xauusd 1hr chart analysisTechnical Analysis
Key Levels
Support:
Primary Support: $2,675- 2680, a crucial level that has consistently held over the past weeks.
Secondary Support: A breakdown below $2,675 could lead to further declines toward $2,669 and $2,663
Resistance:
Primary Resistance: $2,693–$2,700, a zone gold must clear to confirm bullish momentum.
Extended Target: A sustained move above $2,703 could push gold toward $2,713 or higher, with the long-term target near $2,723
Price Action:
Gold has been consolidating around $2,650, indicating indecision in the market. Traders are awaiting a catalyst for a breakout in either direction
Indicators:
RSI: Neutral, indicating no overbought or oversold conditions.
Moving Averages: Gold is trading near its 50-day moving average, reflecting a balance between buyers and sellers.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Suggests the current correction phase might end soon, potentially paving the way for an upward movement
Hellena | GOLD (4H): Long to resistance area of 2717.733(Again).Dear colleagues, I believe that the 2717 level will be reached again, because the five-wave upward movement is not over yet.
I see here the development of wave “3” of higher order and the completion of the correction in wave “2” of medium order. I expect the price to start an upward movement this week.
I do not recommend placing short orders.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Silver H4 | Falling to overlap supportSilver (XAG/USD) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 29.85 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 29.33 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 30.68 which is an overlap retracement.
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CRUDE OIL // long after correctionThe market has managed to stay above the monthly impulse base (orange), and the weekly/daily has turned up.
The daily has reached the target fibo 138.2 with an impulse, therefore, I expect a countertrend here on H4/H1, and I want to go long after that countertrend breaks.
The target is the monthly breakdown and the daily target fibo 200.
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EXPLAINING COLORS
Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.
Level colors:
H4 - aqua
Daily - blue
Weekly - purple
Monthly - magenta
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Gold--> Retest the resistance level before declining!Hello, dear friends! This is Ben here!
Gold prices continue their upward trend, currently hovering around 2671, with a modest daily increase of 0.05%.
The chart indicates that gold is consolidating and attempting to approach the critical resistance level of 2675. The bullish market structure suggests that prices are gearing up for a potential breakout. However, the key question remains, will the breakout occur? This depends largely on external factors, including the U.S. economy's performance and the inflationary trends, which have been long anticipated by the market.
Based on current market behavior, we might expect gold to test liquidity and recheck key resistance levels before any potential downward correction. Buyers are likely to exercise caution after disappointing inflation data from China and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes.
Frankly speaking, I’m not overly optimistic about gold’s upward momentum at the moment, given the lack of strong bullish catalysts aside from lingering trade policies, such as Trump's tariffs on major global powers. Fundamentally, the dollar’s strength and the Fed's hawkish stance continue to cap significant gains for the precious metal.
Resistance levels: 2675, 2680
Support levels: EMA 2665, 2655
From a technical standpoint, the market structure remains bullish, and in the short term, we could see an attempt to break through the 2675 resistance. If successful, prices may test the next areas of interest at 2680 or even 2692 (OB Zone),which could later result in a possible decline.
Best regards, Bentradegold!