Commodities
XAUUSD Intraday Analysis – Correction in Play, Key Levels AheadGold (XAUUSD) recently rejected the 3,720 USD/oz zone after a strong rally and is now forming a clear ABC corrective structure on the H1 timeframe.
Wave (A) bottomed near 3,640.
Wave (B) retraced back to 3,670 – 3,680, showing weak momentum.
Wave (C) could be underway, with potential targets at lower support levels.
Key Technical Levels
Immediate Resistance: 3,670 – 3,680 (wave B peak).
Major Resistance: 3,700 – 3,720 (previous high and supply zone).
Immediate Support: 3,640 (wave A low).
Major Support: 3,600 – 3,610 (Fibonacci 0.382–0.5, aligned with descending trendline).
Indicators
EMA20 crossing below EMA50 on H1 → bearish short-term bias.
RSI bounced from oversold but still below 50 → weak recovery, favoring further downside into wave (C).
Trading Strategies
Primary Scenario (Bearish): Look for SELL opportunities around 3,670 – 3,680, targeting 3,640 first and extending to 3,600. Stop loss above 3,690.
Alternative Scenario (Bullish): A breakout and H1 close above 3,700 would shift bias to the upside, opening room toward 3,720 – 3,740.
Conclusion
Gold remains in a corrective phase with downside risk toward 3,600 if resistance holds. Watch closely how price reacts at 3,670 – 3,680 for short-term opportunities.
Stay tuned for more strategies and insights – follow along if you find this analysis helpful.
GOLD -- SELL 200 pips 18Sep2025, 15minIn the name of ALLAH the most merciful..
Trade Discipline:
Risk no more than 1.5% of your equity on a single trade.
As trade reaches the 50% of target pips, close 80% of trade position and move SL to breakeven after; if you follow my signal setup..
Success is achieved by following STRICT discipline..!
FX:XAUUSD
DXY at a Critical Juncture — What’s the Fed’s Next MoveHey Guys,
I’ve put together a swing-style analysis for the DXY.
This one’s been highly requested — my followers are valuable to me, and I never turn them down.
DXY Daily Levels:
- Resistance: 100.606 – 99.837
- Support: 96.530 – 95.902
From a fundamental perspective, the U.S. Dollar Index is currently dropping due to Fed policies.
No steps are being taken to push the dollar higher.
Because of this, investors are choosing gold as a safe haven instead of buying dollars.
Gold keeps hitting new ATHs, and naturally, the dollar index is sliding.
Unless the Fed takes action to support the dollar, this decline will continue.
In short, the drop in the dollar is entirely due to the policies implemented by the Fed Chair.
Remember — DXY isn’t heavily influenced by technical analysis; it’s driven by Fed policy.
That said, since the index has fallen so much, I believe we might see some steps taken in the coming months to lift the dollar.
I’ll be sharing updates right here.📢
Once support or resistance levels are broken, I’ll post new insights immediately.
Every like from you is my biggest motivation to keep sharing these analyses.
Thanks to all my friends who support me — you’re the best. ❤️
GOLD → Rates have been cut. Will growth continue?FX:XAUUSD , following the Fed's decision on interest rates, caused a shock, updating the ATH to 3707, then updating the minimum to 3633. Since the opening of the European session, the market has been recovering, but there is a BUT...
The Fed's Dot Plot confirmed the forecast of two additional rate cuts before the end of the year, which provides long-term support for gold.
The USD remains under pressure after the Fed's decision, despite a short-term rebound. Trump's statements and the escalation of conflicts continue to fuel demand for safe havens.
After rising to a record high of $3707, a short-term correction is possible. If today's jobless claims come in better than expected, it will temporarily strengthen the USD. As for Powell, his emphasis on “meeting-to-meeting decisions” may limit appetite for risky assets.
Resistance levels: 3674.7, 3688.6
Support levels: 3654.5, 3633, 3626.8
Technically, since the opening of the European session, gold has spent its intraday ATR reserve. From the specified resistance level of 3675 (psychological level), a correction to 3660-3655 may form before continuing to grow to 3675-3688.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Gold Pulls Back Within UptrendGold pushed higher to the upper side of the triangle this month, and then also broke above the 3450 area, above both waves D and B swing points. This suggests the contracting range since May is finished and we are now in a new bullish phase, likely the fifth wave on the higher time frame chart. We see metal now in the third subwave of this fifth wave, extending now to 261.8% Fib target. So gold is clearly in an uptrend as long as we trade above 3400, but keep in mind that this higher-degree fifth wave could complete the bull run from the 2023 lows within the next few weeks. But we are not in that final stage yet, looks like more upside after intraday sub wave four pullback., First support is at 3579-3600. So after some slow-down, gold is expected to stay up.
DeGRAM | GOLD rebound in the ascending channel📊 Technical Analysis
● XAU/USD rebounded sharply from the ascending channel’s lower boundary near 3,640, confirming active demand.
● Price is now targeting 3,685 resistance; a breakout above could extend momentum toward 3,700.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Softer U.S. yields and weaker dollar momentum support gold’s short-term bullish outlook despite Fed’s cautious stance.
✨ Summary
Gold bullish above 3,654; near-term targets 3,685 and 3,700. Key support remains at 3,654.
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
U.S. Natural Gas rises, but outlook mixedU.S. Natural Gas rises, but outlook mixed
U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% to an eight-week high on August 17, supported by lower daily output and stronger demand forecasts for the next two weeks. However, October contracts retreated from a one-week high on Wednesday, settling slightly lower as traders anticipated a larger-than-average build in EIA inventories.
Prices initially spiked midweek on forecasts for late-summer heat across much of the U.S., which is expected to drive up power-sector demand for air conditioning and slow inventory accumulation ahead of the winter heating season. Atmospheric G2 projected above-normal temperatures for September 22–26, with warmer conditions extending into the north-central U.S. from September 27–October 1.
On the supply side, higher U.S. production remains a headwind. The EIA last week raised its 2025 output forecast by 0.2% to 106.63 bcf/day, near record highs, with active natural gas rigs recently hitting a two-year peak.
Gold (XAUUSD) – 18 Sep | Watching 3644–3637 Demand Zone for Long🟡 Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis – 18 September
Market Context
• Yesterday’s FOMC event caused extreme volatility, with price spiking to a new all-time high at 3707.5 , followed by sharp selling.
• M15 structure remains bearish, but our key demand zone from yesterday’s analysis is still valid.
• Market may look to grab sell-side liquidity below this zone before any potential move up, so caution is key.
Key Zone to Watch
• Demand Zone : 3644 – 3637 (strong area of interest for potential buy setups).
• Monitor price reaction here before committing capital.
Execution Plan
• Wait for price to respect 3644 – 3637 demand zone
• Look for LTF confirmation before planning a long setup
• If zone is invalidated, step aside and wait for deeper levels
Let price come to your zone — patience turns setups into opportunities.
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
Gold Rejected at $3,700 – Correction Ahead?Gold (XAUUSD) is currently trading around $3,662 and moving within an upward channel structure, but showing signs of weakness near the resistance zone. Price recently tested the $3,698–$3,700 resistance area and failed to break higher, creating a potential short-term top (marked as a weak high). This rejection signals that sellers are gaining strength. If price fails to sustain above $3,675–$3,698, it increases the probability of a deeper correction toward the lower channel and demand
Overall, Gold remains vulnerable to correction unless bulls reclaim and sustain above $3,700, which would invalidate the bearish setup and reopen the path toward $3,725–$3,750.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance: 3670 – 3690
- Support: 3625 – 3600
📌 Sell Zone & Sell Trigger:
- Sell Zone: 3675 – 3680 area
- Sell Trigger: If Gold retests and rejects the $3,690–$3,700 resistance zone, it becomes a valid sell entry with confirmation of bearish rejection.
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
XAUUSD – Medium-Term Outlook Following Fed Rate CutXAUUSD – Medium-Term Outlook Following Fed Rate Cut
Good day traders,
The key event for September has now taken place: the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, its first cut this year. Market expectations also suggest a further 50 basis point reduction may be on the table at the next meeting. In his remarks, Chairman Powell emphasised a dual risk – inflationary pressures could re-emerge while signs of labour market weakness continue to build.
Technical Perspective
Gold printed an H1 candle closing beneath the ascending channel, which signals a potential breach of the medium-term uptrend.
The bullish side failed to sustain momentum following the rate cut, reflecting a cautious approach to initiating long positions at elevated levels.
Medium-term investors may prefer to await a deeper pullback before considering new long exposure.
That said, the downside is not yet fully confirmed, as price continues to oscillate near the upward trendline → immediate short positions carry a degree of risk.
Trading Scenarios
Sell Strategy
Scalping: 3676 – 3678 | SL: 3683 | TP: 3666 – 3650 – 3635 – 3628
(Stop-loss may be adjusted to breakeven should price respond favourably, allowing trades to run longer).
Sell Zone: 3697 – 3700 | SL: 3705 | TP: 3680 – 3666 – 3650 – 3635 – 3628
Buy Strategy
Scalping: 3634 – 3636 | SL: 3629 | TP: 3645 – 3660 – 3672
Buy Zone: 3600 – 3598 | SL: 3590 | TP: 3633 – 3645 – 3660 – 3675 (extended)
Conclusion
Gold remains in a delicate phase in the aftermath of the Fed’s rate cut. Close monitoring of price behaviour around key support and resistance levels is essential before a clearer directional bias can be established.
Stay aligned with this outlook — I will provide timely updates should the market structure shift. Follow to receive the latest scenarios as price action unfolds.
Gold faces pressure with data-dependent stanceGold prices increased after the Fed cut the rate by 0.25%, bringing the Fed fund rate to 4.0 - 4.25%. The dot plot showed two more cuts in 2025 by 0.5% and only a 0.25% cut in 2026 and 2027 each.
The Fed also indicated the inflation risk and forecast inflation to be up to 3.1% by the end of this year. It stressed that the labor market is weakening now amid an elevated unemployment rate that has remained low.
However, the gold price fell after Fed Chair Powell's speech, which emphasized a data-dependent stance and raised expectations of more aggressive action from the Fed.
Markets need to observe the next labor data to evaluate how bad the labor market is, which could affect concerns over the US economy's stagflation, which could support the gold price in the medium term.
Technically, the XAUUSD broke down under the EMA21 but remains above the EMA78, indicating that the bullish momentum is weakening. If the XAUUSD closes under 3660, it may prompt a retest of the next support at 3600.
By Van Ha Trinh, Financial Market Strategist at Exness
Gold 1H – Dollar Strength Weighs Ahead of US DataGold on the 1H chart is testing deeper demand zones near 3,612–3,614 after repeated liquidity sweeps into 3,678 and 3,702. Sellers continue to defend premium supply, with engineered stop-runs fading quickly. Today’s US data releases and renewed dollar strength keep gold vulnerable to further downside unless discount demand zones show strong defense.
________________________________________
📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H):
• 🔴 SELL SCALP 3,678 – 3,680 (SL 3,685)
Premium intraday pocket for rejection targeting 3,675 → 3,670 → 3,665.
• 🔴 SELL ZONE 3,704 – 3,702 (SL 3,711)
Major premium supply trap for engineered sweep before continuation lower toward 3,670 → 3,655 → 3,640.
• 🟢 BUY GOLD SUPPORT 3,616 – 3,618 (SL 3,610)
Fresh deep discount demand zone, targeting recovery into 3,630 → 3,645 → 3,655+ if defended.
________________________________________
📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based):
🔻 Sell Setup – Intraday Premium Rejection (3,678–3,680)
• Entry: 3,678 – 3,680
• Stop Loss: 3,685
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,675
TP2: 3,670
TP3: 3,665
👉 Expect engineered liquidity grab into premium before NY session.
🔻 Sell Setup – Higher Premium Trap (3,704–3,702)
• Entry: 3,704 – 3,702
• Stop Loss: 3,711
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,670
TP2: 3,655
TP3: 3,640
👉 Smart money may sweep highs near 3,704 before extending bearish leg.
🔺 Buy Setup – Discount Reversal (3,612–3,614)
• Entry: 3,616 – 3,618
• Stop Loss: 3,610
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,630
TP2: 3,645
TP3: 3,655+
👉 Strong bounce potential if dollar retraces post-data; favorable risk/reward from deep demand.
________________________________________
🔑 Strategy Note
With US data and dollar strength in focus, gold remains heavy below 3,678–3,704. Favor short setups into premium sweeps, but monitor 3,612–3,614 closely for signs of accumulation. Trade smaller size until direction clarifies post-news.
Gold Price Trend and Strategy on September 18th:
I. Core Driver Analysis (News)
Unexpected Hawkishness Pressures Gold Prices: The Fed meeting failed to send dovish signals, and Powell emphasized "upward inflation risks," characterizing the rate cut as "risk management" rather than the beginning of an easing cycle. This shatters the market's fantasy of more radical interest rate cuts and constitutes a short-term negative factor.
Mixed Bullish and Bearish News, Source of Volatility: The meeting also confirmed the baseline expectation of "two more rate cuts this year," limiting the downside for gold prices. The interweaving of bullish and bearish news (inflation risk vs. certainty of interest rate cuts) was the fundamental reason for yesterday's sharp fluctuations.
Future Uncertainty: Significant changes in the FOMC membership are expected, raising questions about the sustainability of Powell's remarks, increasing market uncertainty and potentially maintaining high volatility.
II. Technical Analysis
Daily Chart: Yesterday's high-rise followed by a decline in a medium-sized bearish candlestick pattern clearly indicates strong resistance at the $3,700 level. The market is clearly experiencing profit-taking and a correction pattern.
4-hour level: The 3700-3706 area has initially formed a "double top" suppression pattern, and the market has entered a technical correction stage. This correction could occur in two ways:
Weak Correction: Prices retreat downward to find support (trading space for time).
Strong Correction: Prices fluctuate and consolidate at high levels (trading time for space).
Key Positions:
Upper Resistance: 3700-3706 (double top neckline, bullish watershed)
Lower Support: 3656 → 3648 (short-term correction target) → 3550 (core trend support; a break below would disrupt the short-term uptrend).
III. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy
Overall Approach: Gold prices are in a technical correction cycle in the short term. The primary strategy is to short on rallies, while also monitoring rebound opportunities at key support levels. Before the 3700 mark is effectively broken through, we maintain a bearish view of volatility.
IV. Specific Trading Recommendations
Short Strategy (Primary):
Entry Area: Around $3666-3668
Targets: First target: 3656, second target: 3648
Stop-loss: Recommended above $3675
Long Strategy (Secondary):
Wait-and-See: Focus on stabilization signals at $3648 and the support area below (such as stop-loss candlestick patterns). Consider a light position for short-term rebound opportunities.
Core Defense: As long as the price holds above $3550, the overall upward trend will be maintained. Deep pullbacks present opportunities to enter long positions on dips.
V. Risk Warning
Pay close attention to subsequent speeches by Federal Reserve officials and US economic data (especially inflation data) to determine whether they will disrupt expectations of a rate cut.
If gold prices break through and stabilize at $3706, the short-term correction will be invalidated, and a reassessment of market direction will be necessary.
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCTHE KOG REPORT – FOMC
This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price.
We’ve seen this play well so far this week so we’ll sit back and let them make the move before then looking for a set up to get in. We have initial support at the 3670 level and resistance above at the 3690 level which is the level that will need to break for price to then attempt a new high. Potential level here 3720-30 which is where we will want to assess the price action and potentially an opportunity to attempt the short trade for the swing may arise. Breaking above that level will invalidate the move.
Downside, there is a hot spot at 3665 which is the level that will need a strong close, this level also has an extension of the move into the 3650-55 level and on the break 3630-35.
Quick summary:
Ideally, we support the 3670 level, push upside, attack the 3720-30 region and we’ll look for a reversal up there. IF we break below 3655, we’ll look further down around the 3620-30 region for a reversal for the scalp long.
There is a big stretch on and in normal market conditions, this should have dropped all the way back down into the 3500’s at least. But, we have to play the game they present us with so let’s wait and see what happens. Also, FOMC might already be priced in, so it’s the press conference after the statement that will be of interest to the markets.
Key levels to watch for the break:
Red box level 3690
Red box level 3673
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
GOLD Will Move Lower! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 3,641.09.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 3,599.64 level soon.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Hellena | GOLD (4H): SHORT to support area of 3558.Colleagues, gold is in an active upward impulse of big wave “1” and if until now I was only talking about long positions, now it is time to think about the correction in wave “2”.
Wave “1” (red) consists of five waves and, to all appearances, wave “5” (blue) has either completed or is about to complete.
This means that I expect a corrective movement to the 3558 support area. I believe that this is the minimum retracement level, and the price may reach lower values, but we will work for the result, which we will achieve soon.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Gold Market Technical Outlook and Key Levels BULLS/BEARS📊 Technical Outlook Update — Gold (H4)
As of 15 Sep 2025
• Spot is holding ~$3,640–3,650/oz after last week’s record spike; price is consolidating since.
• On futures, settlement came in $3,686.40 (Sep 12) with a short-term “bullish breakout” narrative into today’s session.
🏆 Bull Market Overview
▪️ Massive rally now pausing below $3,700; momentum stalling under headline resistance.
▪️ Overhead resistances will limit upside:
— $3,700 (first major cap) • $3,750 (stretch/overshoot)
▪️ Key S/R zones (now):
— Resistance: $3,700 / $3,750
— Support: $3,600 / $3,500 / $3,400 (step-downs)
▪️ Bias: short-term limited upside after the run; risk of liquidity sweep lower before trend resumes.
▪️ October roadmap: looking for a re-test near $3,500 later in the month to reload bullish flow/liquidity.
▪️ Volatility: elevated vs. summer; headline-sensitive into the Fed this week.
⭐️ Recommended Strategy (H4 game plan)
▪️ Sell the first tests into $3,700 / $3,750 with tight risk; fade wicks.
▪️ Buy the dip into $3,600 → $3,500 → $3,400 zones; scale entries, keep stops beyond structure.
▪️ Momentum traders: wait for clean H4 close above $3,700 to target $3,730–$3,750; otherwise fade spikes.
▪️ Position traders: patient bids $3,520–$3,480 zone preferred for October reload.
▪️ If flat right now: no chase—let price come to your levels.
Latest gold market updates
📈 Post-CPI pop kept spot above $3,640, reinforcing dip-buying interest even as the dollar firmed.
📰 Technicians flag bullish breakout dynamics despite intraday chop; futures settled $3,686.40 (Sep 12) ahead of fresh catalysts.
🧭 Context: market is consolidating beneath record highs set last week; pullbacks seen as tactical within a larger uptrend.
Level map
R2: $3,750 (bulls’ stretch / likely exhaust on first touch)
R1: $3,700 (primary cap; fade unless impulsively reclaimed)
S1: $3,600 (first bounce zone; liquidity magnet)
S2: $3,500 (October re-test area to accumulate)
S3: $3,400 (deeper flush / high-conviction buy zone)
XAGUSD H4 | Potential bearish dropSilver (XAG/USD) is reacting off the sell entry which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to the downside.
Sell entry is at 41.47, which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 39.51, which is a swing high resistance.
Take profit is at 39.51, which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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Gold 1H – Fed Decision Looms After $3,700 BreakGold on the 1H timeframe is consolidating around 3,675 after sweeping the historic $3,700 level. Price briefly tapped 3,702 before retreating into the 3,670s, showing engineered liquidity runs both sides. With the Fed policy decision due at 1 AM VN time, volatility is expected to spike. Market remains supported by easing USD, central bank flows, and geopolitical tension, but short-term positioning suggests possible liquidity grabs before a directional move.
________________________________________
📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H):
• 🔴 SELL SCALP 3,696 – 3,694 (SL 3,703)
Premium supply pocket for engineered rejection targeting 3,690 → 3,685 → 3,680.
• 🟢 FVG BUY ZONE 3,674 – 3,665 (SL 3,660)
Fair Value Gap demand zone for retracement into structure, targeting 3,685 → 3,695 → 3,700+.
• 🟢 BUY SUPPORT 3,636 – 3,638 (SL 3,630)
Deep discount accumulation zone targeting 3,655 → 3,670 → 3,680+.
________________________________________
📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based):
🔺 Buy Setup – FVG Reclaim (3,674–3,665)
• Entry: 3,674 – 3,665
• Stop Loss: 3,660
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,685
TP2: 3,695
TP3: 3,700+
👉 Look for liquidity sweep into FVG before NY session/Fed.
🔺 Buy Setup – Deep Discount (3,636–3,638)
• Entry: 3,636 – 3,638
• Stop Loss: 3,630
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,655
TP2: 3,670
TP3: 3,680+
👉 High R:R setup if stops hunted before Fed decision.
🔻 Sell Setup – Premium Trap (3,696–3,694)
• Entry: 3,696 – 3,694
• Stop Loss: 3,703
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,690
TP2: 3,685
TP3: 3,680
👉 Expect engineered stop-runs into premium before fading lower.
________________________________________
🔑 Strategy Note
Gold’s break above $3,700 highlights strong bullish sentiment, but Fed decision risk means smart money may sweep liquidity both ways. Stay nimble: fade extremes at 3,696–3,694 for shorts, and defend demand at 3,674–3,665 and 3,636–3,638 for longs. Trade lighter size until post-Fed clarity.
Potential bearish drop off?The Gold (XAU/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 3,674.77
1st Support: 3,624.94
1st Resistance: 3,697.75
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GOLD was clearly supported, but Powell stopped shortIn the trading session on September 17 in New York, the US financial market "spinned like a pinwheel" after the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates and Chairman Jerome Powell's speech. The Dollar recovered after Mr. Powell's speech, causing gold to be sold off strongly. As of the time the article was completed (Thursday, September 18), the gold price was trading at 3,662 USD/oz.
The Fed officially cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate band down to 4.00% - 4.25%, as expected. This is the first time the Fed has cut interest rates since December last year. This decision immediately caused the USD to plummet to a 4-year low against the euro, while spot gold prices jumped to a new record. However, after Powell's speech, the USD quickly recovered strongly, while gold fell from the peak due to profit-taking pressure.
The US stock market also fluctuated violently: all three major indexes rose sharply for a moment and then quickly reversed. Powell emphasized that the Fed was in no hurry to ease further and this move was considered a “risk management cut”.
In the statement after the meeting, the FOMC acknowledged that the US economy was “slowing”, employment was weakening, inflation was rising and the downside risks to the labor market were growing. However, the Fed still forecast two more 0.25% rate cuts this year, according to the “dotplot chart” tool showing the expectations of each official. New member Milan was the only one who opposed, wanting a sharp 0.5% cut.
Powell said future decisions would be considered “on a meeting-by-meeting basis,” suggesting the Fed is moving cautiously rather than aggressively easing. Officials are also increasingly converging on the idea that the Trump administration’s trade and tariff policies will only have a temporary impact on inflation.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has not been able to surpass the 3,700 USD price mark, the profit-taking momentum has caused the gold price to drop sharply and very quickly, but with the current position, it still has all the conditions to increase in price. Specifically, the main trend is still stable with the price channel as the medium-term trend, and the support from EMA21 as the main support, followed by the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level as the current nearest support.
On the other hand, in terms of momentum, the RSI has not yet signaled the possibility of a more significant downside correction, as the RSI is still operating in the overbought area and is mostly moving sideways, indicating that profit-taking in the market is limited, leading to limited downside momentum. A downward sloping RSI through the 80 level is the best signal for a more significant downside correction. During the day, if gold breaks above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension level again, it will be in a position to retest the $3,700 level, more so the $3,722 level once the original $3,700 level is broken.
Finally, the general trend of gold price on the daily chart is bullish and the notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 3,645USD
Resistance: 3,677 – 3,700USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3696 - 3694⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3700
→Take Profit 1 3688
↨
→Take Profit 2 3682
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3616 - 3618⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3612
→Take Profit 1 3624
↨
→Take Profit 2 3630
XAUUSD Intraday Analysis – September 18, 2025On the H1 chart, gold shows clear weakness after failing to sustain bullish momentum. The “Bulls Break Down” phase occurred with a strong rejection around 3,674 – 3,680 USD/oz, which has now turned into a key short-term resistance zone.
Key Support & Resistance Levels
Immediate Resistance: 3,674 – 3,680 USD/oz (Stop Loss zone for short positions).
Minor Resistance (now supply): 3,648 – 3,650 USD/oz.
Immediate Support: 3,643 USD/oz.
Deeper Support: 3,622 – 3,625 USD/oz.
Trading Strategies
Main short-term trend: Bearish.
Price has broken the previous bullish structure and is forming a downside wave with minor pullbacks toward resistance zones.
Scenario 1 – Sell on pullback (preferred):
Entry: 3,656 – 3,660 USD/oz upon retest.
Stop Loss: above 3,675 USD/oz.
Take Profit: 3,643 USD/oz (TP1), extended to 3,622 USD/oz (TP2).
Scenario 2 – Countertrend Buy (high risk, less favorable):
Only valid if price holds above 3,643 USD/oz with clear bullish reversal candles.
Take Profit: 3,660 – 3,670 USD/oz.
Stop Loss: below 3,638 USD/oz.
Technical Confluence
EMA: Price is trading below short-term EMAs, confirming bearish pressure.
RSI (H1): Trending lower, not yet oversold, leaving room for further downside.
Fibonacci Retracement: The 3,674 USD level aligns with the 61.8% retracement, strengthening the bearish rejection.
- In summary, gold is leaning bearish intraday, with a preference for short positions on pullbacks. A clean break below 3,643 USD/oz would open the door to 3,622 USD/oz.