Commodities
Platinum – Potential Short Setup with RetestPlatinum is currently trading below a key resistance zone, following a breakdown from the ascending channel. The recent bearish momentum indicates the potential for a continuation lower if the price fails to reclaim the resistance zone.
If the price retests this zone and shows rejection signals—such as bearish wicks, engulfing candles, or decreased buying pressure—it would strengthen the case for a short trade. In this scenario, the next target for sellers would be the $926.94 support zone, where buying interest may re-emerge.
This setup aligns with the broader bearish structure following the channel breakdown. Traders should monitor price action closely at the resistance level for confirmation of rejection before entering short positions.
Will gold fluctuate significantly today?
In the early Asian session on Wednesday (January 15), spot gold fluctuated slightly and is currently trading at $2,683 per ounce. Gold prices rebounded slightly on Tuesday, closing at $2,677.22 per ounce, after U.S. inflation data was slightly lower than expected, giving investors a faint hope that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates in 2025, and the U.S. dollar fell in response. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields may still be unfavorable factors for gold in the first half of this year, but the demand for gold as a diversified investment tool will be enough to outweigh these unfavorable factors. On Tuesday, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield continued to rise, once refreshing a more than 14-month high of 4.820%. This yield is regarded as a risk-free yield, the opportunity cost of holding gold in the market, and the rise in this yield will reduce the attractiveness of gold. In addition, concerns about Trump's policy uncertainty also provide support for gold prices, but U.S. Treasury yields continue to climb, which makes gold bulls cautious. Investors are currently waiting for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday to analyze the Fed's policy path.
U.S. President-elect Trump will return to the White House on January 20. He has previously vowed to impose additional trade tariffs. Analysts expect this will trigger a trade war and reignite inflation. President-elect Trump said on Tuesday that he would set up a new department called the External Revenue Service, "to collect tariffs, import duties and all taxes from foreign countries." Trump is preparing to impose new import tariffs before taking office next week. In terms of geopolitical situation, negotiators are trying to agree on the final details of the Gaza ceasefire after marathon talks in Qatar, with mediators and both warring parties saying they are closer than ever to reaching an agreement. However, after more than eight hours of talks, a senior Hamas official told Reuters reporters late on Tuesday that the group is still waiting for Israel to submit a map for its withdrawal from Gaza. U.S. President Biden attended the talks together with envoys of President-elect Trump. Investors need to pay attention to relevant news. In addition, New York Fed President Williams and Chicago Fed President Goolsburn will deliver speeches on the trading day, which investors need to pay close attention to. In addition, pay attention to the release of the Beige Book of Economic Conditions by the Federal Reserve.
Gold market trend analysis:
Gold technical analysis: The gold range has contracted and fluctuated, the daily physical K-line is small, and the short-term space has become passivated. If the space cannot be walked out, it will fall into a narrow range of contraction and saw-saw oscillation, and it is not strong or weak. The daily structure enters the triangle range. Although the low point is upward, forming a small step upward, the resistance at the upper track has not been effectively broken through, and there is no upward space for the time being. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate back and forth within the range. If the gold rebound and rise is not sustained, then gold will continue to be a volatile market. Gold has poor sustainability recently. Don't chase the rise easily. Continue to short gold at a rebound high.
The gold 1-hour moving average is about to enter a dead cross downward. If the gold 1-hour moving average forms a dead cross downward, then the gold downside space will be further opened. The market is changing rapidly. Gold is now a volatile market. Gold rebounds high and continues to short. On the whole, the professional and experienced gold analyst team recommends shorting on rebounds as the main strategy for short-term gold operations today, and long on pullbacks as the auxiliary strategy. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 2676-2680 resistance line, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2645-2650 support line.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Go long on gold when it falls back to the 2660-65 line, stop loss at 2655, target at 2675-80 line, and look at 2690 line if it breaks;
2. Go short on the 2690 line when gold rebounds for the first time, and cover short on the 2704 line when it rebounds, stop loss at 2711, and target at 2665-70 line;
Silver H4 | Pullback resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementSilver (XAG/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 30.966 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 31.70 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 29.54 which is a swing-low support.
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Gold Price Update: Potential Bullish ContinuationGold prices are showing signs of a potential bullish continuation. The price has retraced to the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 2,677.26 USD after a strong upward move and appears to be stabilizing around this support.
The current consolidation above 2,677.26 USD suggests the possibility of another upward push toward the 1.0 Fibonacci level at 2,697.98 USD, with further resistance levels at 2,718.71 USD and 2,729.08 USD. However, if the price fails to hold above 2,677.26 USD, the next support level to watch is 2,666.89 USD.
Key Levels:
Immediate Resistance: 2,697.98 USD (1.0 Fibonacci level)
Support Zone: 2,677.26 USD (0.5 Fibonacci level) and 2,666.89 USD (0.25 Fibonacci level)
Potential Targets: 2,729.08 USD (1.75 Fibonacci level)
This setup indicates a bullish outlook if key support levels hold. Should monitor price action closely for confirmation of the next move.
Gold prices continue to increase from the level 2675OANDA:XAUUSD continuing the uptrend in local and medium-term timeframes. The price is once again testing strong resistance levels on the H4 chart, with prospects for a breakout toward the 2700–2750 range.
The US Dollar remains near weekly lows, touched after weaker-than-expected US PPI data on Tuesday, providing key support for the market, including gold. Attention now shifts to the upcoming CPI report, a critical release that could reshape market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. A stronger-than-expected CPI could increase pressure on gold, while a weaker report would bolster buying momentum. Additionally, the Fed’s hawkish stance is supported by the premise that Trump, beginning his second term next week, may drive inflation higher with protectionist policies.
From a technical perspective, significant volume lies ahead, which could trigger a minor pullback toward support before the uptrend resumes.
Key short-term levels to watch:
Support: 2678, 2670
Resistance: 2690, 2697
However, in both the short and medium term, everything hinges on the upcoming scheduled news. Stay focused on these critical levels, traders!
Best regards, Bentradegold!
Bitcoin & Gold: Weekly Options Trading Recap
Gold: 🌟 The entire past week saw a positive trend in gold trading, characterized by a continuous accumulation of vertical call spreads targeting $2925-$2950. On Friday, higher targets around $2990-$3000 were added, with expiration in August of this year. The sentiment remains positive. However, volatility increased last week and remains at a relatively high level, indicating potential turbulence in the precious metals market.
Bitcoin: 💰 Interesting portfolios aiming for $120,000-$140,000 have been observed in Bitcoin trading. These portfolios emerged on January 16 when Bitcoin was around $99,000. Within a couple of days, Bitcoin surged by 6.8% and broke the previous high around $102,500.
THE 2ND TRADE OF THE DAY TO HIT THE STOPAs I posted on the post on NASDAQ earlier, this is our 2nd trade of the day to reach our stop and to be in loss after we made a profitable one on OIL which I will link to this post below.
You can check them and read what I explained in NASDAQ's post about how to stick to your plan and not let your emotions take over your trading.
Follow for more!
LUCMF Asymmetric Trade PossibilityLuca Mining Corporation high reward:ratio — multi-month swing trade Here we have an asymmetric trade potential on LUCMF. Price has broken a long term downtrend and seems to have been creating a reversal pattern in the form of an inverse head and shoulders, as many silver miners are currently doing. This same pattern is not only present on most miners, but on the silver futures or spot charts themselves, in which silver has already broken out of; seemingly following the exact pattern of gold, in the handle portion of its cup and handle In this sense, it is safe to assume the miners are lagging silver in such a way that silver has been lagging gold — same exact pattern just slightly late to the party — this gives traders a “second chance” at catching the move in which silver is currently completing — in the miners
Long term target: $1.65.
Speculative entry point — any price above .45 in case of a false breakout
Conservative entry point — any price above the neckline breakout level (you can adjust this lower according to your risk tolerance as many smaller cap miners often produce false breakdowns)
I suspect there will be a false breakdown after seemingly confirming the breakout, which may warrant a liberal stop loss according to your personal risk preference
XAUUSD, EXCACTLY AS PLANNED IN OUR LAST POSTTechnical Analysis:
XAU/USD (Gold) has shown strong bullish momentum, trading comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which signal a sustained uptrend. The price recently broke a key resistance level at $1,950, which now acts as strong support. Momentum indicators like the RSI are in bullish territory but remain below overbought levels, suggesting room for further upside. The MACD histogram is widening, indicating increasing bullish momentum.
The next key resistance lies at $2,000, a psychological level, followed by $2,030, a recent multi-month high. A confirmed break above $2,000 could set the stage for a move toward $2,050. On the downside, support at $1,950 and $1,920 will be critical to watch for any potential retracement.
Fundamental Analysis:
Gold's bullish outlook is driven by a combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Concerns over global economic slowdown, persistent geopolitical tensions, and central banks maintaining high levels of gold reserves are supporting safe-haven demand.
In the U.S., softer inflation data and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve have weakened the dollar, making gold more attractive for international buyers. Additionally, Treasury yields have started to stabilize, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
Furthermore, with the Chinese economy showing signs of recovery and increased demand for physical gold from Asia, gold prices are expected to remain well-supported in the near term. Central bank buying also continues to provide a long-term tailwind for prices.
Key Catalysts to Watch:
U.S. economic data, particularly inflation and labor market reports.
Fed policy updates and FOMC meeting minutes.
Developments in geopolitical hotspots that could spur safe-haven flows.
Demand trends from major gold-importing countries like China and India.
Institutional Supply: XAU/USD shortsHey,
One of the key charts that I am focused at is GOLD.
As you can see at the chart, price is moving towards a key supply area.
It's a very basic chart, but simple works and keeps us consistent.
I'll be looking at GOLD short plays when the zone is reached...
And when the 4-hour shapes up.
Kind regards,
Max Nieveld
Brent - Peace returned to the Middle East?!Brent oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour time frame and is moving in its upward channel. On the ceiling of the ascending channel, we will look for oil selling positions. In case of a valid break of the $80 range, we can see the continuation of the downward trend. On the other hand, within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward.
Brent crude oil prices have surpassed $80 per barrel. This price increase continues to be supported by declining U.S. crude oil inventories and uncertainties surrounding Russian oil supplies following new U.S. sanctions.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has stated that the latest U.S. sanctions have the potential to significantly disrupt Russia’s energy exports. These sanctions have blacklisted over one-fifth of the tanker fleet transporting Russian oil. Last week, 160 sanctioned tankers transported over 1.6 million barrels per day of Russian oil in 2024, accounting for approximately 22% of the country’s maritime exports. However, the IEA has maintained its current outlook on Russia’s oil supply and will update it based on future developments.
Meanwhile, reports indicate that Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire agreement, though Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office stated that details are yet to be finalized. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked U.S. President-elect Donald Trump for his role in the Gaza agreement and announced plans to meet him in Washington soon. Netanyahu also expressed gratitude to U.S. President Joe Biden for aiding in the hostage agreement. A senior Hamas official confirmed the group’s commitment to the ceasefire proposed by mediators.
In the oil market, attention remains focused on uncertainties surrounding Russian oil supply after the announcement of stricter U.S. sanctions. Additionally, declining U.S. crude oil inventories provide further support for prices. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 1.96 million barrels last week to under 413 million barrels, the lowest level since March 2022. This decline was primarily due to a decrease in crude oil imports by 304,000 barrels per day and an increase in exports by 1 million barrels per day. In refined products, despite a 1.6% drop in refinery utilization, gasoline and distillate inventories rose by 5.85 million barrels and 3.08 million barrels, respectively.
The Colonial Pipeline, which transports about 1.5 million barrels per day of gasoline from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the East Coast, is expected to remain closed until Friday following a leak earlier this week. This has provided limited upward support to gasoline prices.
The IEA and OPEC have both released their monthly oil market reports. The IEA warned that new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s energy sector could lead to supply disruptions. Additionally, the agency revised its global oil demand growth forecast upward due to colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere. The IEA estimates that global oil demand in 2024 will increase by 940,000 barrels per day, 90,000 barrels per day higher than the previous estimate. For 2025, demand is expected to grow by 1.05 million barrels per day.
OPEC, in its monthly report, maintained its 2025 oil demand growth estimate at 1.45 million barrels per day. For 2026, the group’s initial forecast predicts an increase of 1.43 million barrels per day. OPEC also kept its 2025 supply growth estimate for non-OPEC+ countries unchanged at 1.11 million barrels per day and expects a similar increase for 2026. OPEC’s production in December rose slightly to 26.74 million barrels per day, while overall OPEC+ output fell by 14,000 barrels per day to 40.65 million barrels per day due to reduced production in Kazakhstan. OPEC data indicates that demand for OPEC+ crude in 2025 will reach 42.5 million barrels per day and rise to 42.7 million barrels per day in 2026.
Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani told Reuters that Iraq plans to sign a major oil and gas deal in Kirkuk with BP by early February. He noted that this deal will surpass the scale of the major 2023 agreement with TotalEnergies.
Natural Gas Futures (4H) - ABCD Pattern Analysis and PRZ Levels"In this analysis of Natural Gas Futures (4H timeframe), we identify a bullish ABCD pattern that projects a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) around 394.5-395. Key highlights include:
ABCD Pattern: The 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the BC leg aligns with the PRZ.
Current Price Action: Natural Gas is trading around 368.6, indicating a strong upward momentum.
Key Levels:
Resistance at 394.5 (PRZ zone).
Support levels marked at 365.2, 364.3, and 361.5.
Strategy Insight:
Traders may look for potential shorting opportunities at the PRZ (394.5) with confirmations.
Alternatively, breakouts above 394.5 could indicate further bullish movement toward 400+ levels.
This setup is ideal for monitoring reversal or continuation scenarios. Keep an eye on volume and momentum indicators for better confirmation."
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
NASDAQ closed lower, facing resistance near the 20-day moving average. It struggled at the midpoint of the long bearish candle formed on January 7 (21570), which coincides with the upper trendline resistance originating from the December 16, 2023 high (22450). The market's direction—whether it breaks above the upper trendline resistance around 21500 or reverts to the center of the downtrend—remains to be seen.
On the weekly chart, a sell signal has been triggered. On the daily chart, the significant gap between the MACD and signal line suggests a higher likelihood of continued downside. However, after consolidating around the center of Wednesday's large bullish candle, the market may trade sideways for a few days before determining its next direction.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and signal line are above the zero line. After consolidating in a box range, the market may see a bullish third wave supported by the MACD holding above the signal line. Alternatively, a dead cross could form, signaling a shift to bearish momentum. For today, a range-bound strategy focusing on selling at highs and buying at lows is appropriate. Note that Fridays can often bring choppy price action.
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil closed lower after facing resistance at the upper monthly boundary. On the daily chart, the significant gap between the price and moving averages increases the risk of pursuing long positions at higher levels. If oil breaks below the 5-day moving average, the 10-day moving average or the $74–$75 range could act as support. A pullback to these levels would provide an opportunity for buying on dips.
The recent month-long rally has caused the MACD and signal line to diverge significantly above the zero line, supporting a buy-on-dip strategy during corrections. However, as mentioned previously, a sell signal has appeared on the 240-minute chart, along with MACD divergence, suggesting a higher probability of additional downside. The recent $79 rally could represent the head of a head-and-shoulders pattern, with the right shoulder acting as resistance upon a rebound. Below $76, strong support exists, so box-range trading near critical levels is recommended.
GOLD
Gold closed higher, supported by declining Treasury yields. The daily chart confirms a fully established uptrend, making it advantageous to focus on buying during pullbacks. Treasury yields, which have been inversely correlated with gold, are also showing sell signals, suggesting further downside in yields and strength in gold.
If gold breaks above the 2755 level, it could test the weekly chart resistance at 2788. However, resistance at this level may prevent the weekly MACD from forming a golden cross, leading to a consolidation phase over the next few weeks. On the 240-minute chart, strong buying momentum suggests a bullish third wave that could replicate the prior move from 2625 to 2735. With the clear daily trend and one-way price action, this is a favorable period for swing trading to maximize profits. Traders should consider this an opportunity to grow their accounts.
This week included major events like the CPI report. Next Monday, Donald Trump will officially be inaugurated as U.S. President. Given past market volatility during Trump's presidency, expect heightened price swings ahead. Always adhere to stop-loss levels and manage risks diligently. Wrap up the week well, and best of luck in your trading endeavors.
■Trading Strategies for Today
NASDAQ - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 21150 / 21090 / 21020 / 20940
-Sell: 21330 / 21370 / 21420 / 21490
Crude Oil - Bullish Market (March futures)
-Buy: 77.50 / 77.00 / 76.20 / 75.70 / 74.90
-Sell: 78.55 / 79.00 / 79.35 / 80.30
Gold - Bullish Market
-Buy: 2738 / 2729 / 2722 / 2715 / 2700
-Sell: 2757 / 2765 / 2772 / 2780 / 2788
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
2025-01-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: The bull channel is clear and valid until broken. I do think a bigger pull-back is overdue but until then, bulls are in control.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2670 - 2770
bull case: Bulls want to print above 2761 and make a new high above the December high. If they can get it, we could see more upside to 2800 since there is no more resistance afterwards. the bull channel is tight and no matter how you count it, we had at least 3 legs up and betting on a 4th is a losing strategy in most cases.
Invalidation is below 2700.
bear case: Bears doing not enough and if they fail at 2761, we will go 2800+ again. Not much to interpret here. We are still in a bull channel on the 1h tf and bears would need a 1h bar close below the 20ema for a start. The previous times we got above 2740, we printed huge bear reversal bars and I am hoping for another one tomorrow. Bears are also seeing this as at least 3 legs up and they want another decent pull-back for at least 50 points like the prior ones.
Invalidation is above 2765.
short term: Neutral. Waiting for bears to come around here at big resistance. If they fail, we see 2800 soon. No bigger interest in buying this.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the double bottom on the 1h tf at 2722 before EU open. Otherwise just any pullback to the 1h 20ema.
Buy OIL 71$ - 74$ zoneOil needs a temporary rest after the rapid pump it had. This rest is somewhere between $71 and $74. Since the oil trend is still bullish, it is not easy to enter the trade. It is reasonable to wait for the trend correction. The first definite target for oil according to the chart ahead is $82. However, in my opinion, the great oil cycle has begun to grow again and it has goals of close to $170 to $200 in the future. However, it is better to consider short-term goals. The final point, based on the analysis ahead, is that oil will definitely see a price of $100 again in the next few months.
8 Tips to Optimize Your Tradingview for Clarity & PerformanceIn this video I share 8 ways to optimize your Tradingview for improve your performance.
Most people focus on strategy, but that is only a piece of successful trading. What I would argue is even more important....is your ability to execute.
Better execution is a result of - repetition, clarity, understanding
The things in this video will help you with clarity.
People make the comparison to trading and gambling all the time, for good reason.
But let me ask you this...
Have you ever taken a moment to look at your tradingview workspace and see how it's like walking through a virtual casino?
Think about it...
You have thousands of assets to choose from (machines & tables)
You have people with their ideas and chatter (forums, ideas, chats)
You also have sounds and stimulation everywhere (notifications, alarms)
This is not bad! But it's something to be mindful of as you design your work environment for execution.
We want to improve clarity, and simplicity. We want to eliminate as much noise as possible to improve your ability to focus on the task at hand, which is to execute your strategy.
Here are 8 tips to improve your performance:
(yes some of these are generic but they make a huge difference)
Turn off the Gain%, Change, Vol, and Last on your asset sidebar
On the same side bar, drag the news section down to the bottom so it's not visible anymore
Change the color of your candles to soft more soothing colors ( google search calming colors )
Turn off notifications so you don't get hit with other trader's ideas while you're trading
Use anchor text notes to put your plan for each asset right on the chart so you don't deviate
Remove news event from the bottom of your charts, reduces clutter (personal preference)
Create templates for each step in your analysis process
I realize now that there were only 7 not 8, but I recorded the video so it's too late to go back now lol.
I hope this helps you on your journey!
I'd love to know what helps you with clarity, and getting in flow state while you trade.
👇 Share in the comments below
-Gio
CADJPY Rising Wedge Breakout and Targeting Support LevelCADJPY is currently trading at 108.300, with a target price set at 106.000, offering a potential gain of 200+ pips. The analysis is based on a support and resistance pattern, indicating the pair’s key price levels. A rising wedge breakout has already occurred, a bearish signal pointing to further downside potential. The price is now positioned below a major resistance level, confirming sellers' dominance in the market. With this setup, the pair is likely to continue its downward movement toward the main support level, which aligns with the target price. The bearish momentum is expected to persist as long as the resistance level holds strong. Traders should watch for any confirmation of increased selling pressure to solidify this trend. This setup highlights a favorable opportunity for bearish trades with a defined risk-reward ratio. The focus remains on the target support level as the next key price point.
GOLD MICRO ANALYSISAnd this is what the micro view looks like. If you've not seen our precedent post on the macro view, you should check it out so you get the global scheme of the move.
The red line has to be reached at some point over the next few weeks, maybe even days, because Gold has a "desert area" to cross : this is the area where there's no blue lines, which are basic KL.
What we believe is that when there 's no or not enought KL, the price moves way faster, hence the green drawing.