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XAUUSD 4H Analysis: Rejection at Resistance – Drop to $2,850?📉 XAUUSD (Gold) 4H Analysis – March 5, 2025 Key Levels: Resistance: Around $2,920 - $2,940 (price is testing this zone) Support: Around $2,850 - $2,860 (marked as a demand zone) Market Structure & Projection: Gold is currently at a resistance level, which has previously acted as a strong supply zone. The price is showing signs of rejection at resistance, indicating a potential bearish move. The chart suggests a drop towards the $2,850 support level if price fails to break above resistance. Indicators & Confluence: 200 EMA (Red Line): Located below the price, showing an overall bullish trend, but short-term correction is possible. Bearish Structure: The recent push to resistance followed by rejection hints at a potential sell-off. Liquidity Grab? If price briefly spikes above resistance and then reverses, a deeper drop could be confirmed. Trading Bias & Strategy: 📉 Bearish Scenario: If rejection at resistance holds, price could head towards $2,850 support. 📈 Bullish Breakout?: If price breaks & closes above resistance with strong volume, upside continuation could be possible. ⚠ Watch for price action at resistance before taking trades. A breakout or rejection confirmation is key. 🔥 What’s Your Take? Bullish or Bearish? Let me know! 🚀📊
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MrStellanSight
2
GOLD Daily Analysis: Is This the Start of a Deeper Correction?OANDA:XAUUSD is moving inside a clear ascending channel, with the upper boundary acting as long-term resistance and the lower boundary providing dynamic support. Price has been respecting this channel, with multiple touches on both the upper and lower boundaries, reinforcing its structure. Recently, the price formed a double top near the upper boundary, a classic reversal signal suggesting bullish exhaustion. If the price continues to hold below this level, it could lead to further downside. The next major support is around 2,780 , which aligns with a previous support level and also falls within the golden pocket on the Fibonacci retracement, making it a significant area for a potential reaction. However, if the price reclaims the double-top region and pushes above recent highs, it would invalidate the bearish outlook and suggest another attempt to break the channel’s upper boundary. For now, the structure remains bearish, with 2,780 as the main downside target.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TrendDiva
27
Don’t forget: US also faces a government showdown With markets in turmoil, it's easy to overlook the growing risk of a U.S. government shutdown. A three-week market sell-off intensified today as investors worry that unpredictable policies from the Trump administration are pushing the economy into recession. The S&P 500 is down 9.1% from its February high, the Nasdaq 14%, and the Russell 2000 18%. A 10% decline is considered a correction. Bitcoin also dropped below $80,000, while the USD and gold are seeing some weakness. Meanwhile, Lawmakers have until Friday, March 14, to pass a funding bill. But House Republicans must secure near-unanimous support. The longest shutdown in history lasted 34 days in 2018 over Trump border wall funding. Now, Democrats again hold key leverage. While Republicans have a House majority, they need Democratic support in the Senate to pass funding. Some see this as a rare chance for Senate Democrats to challenge Trump’s/ Elon Musk’s cuts via the Department of Government Efficiency, though it’s unclear if they will take that risk.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Bearish drop?XAG/USD has reacted off the support level which is a pullback support ad could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 32.31 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Stop loss: 33.15 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 31.48 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:XAGUSDShort
by VantageMarkets
Bullish bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci support?COPPER is falling toward the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 4.5711 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 4.4640 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 4.6871 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:COPPERLong
by VantageMarkets
WTI CRUDE OIL: 4H Channel Down targeting 64.00WTI Crude Oil is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 33.014, MACD = -1.680, ADX = 27.887) but on the lower 4h timeframe its formed a Channel Down that just completed a peak formation. This indicates that it is ready for its next bearish wave, with the previous two registering -6.55% declines. The trade is short, TP = 64.00. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILShort
by InvestingScope
1
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, We started the week with our Bearish target hit first at 2901, which gave multiple weighted level bounces of 30 pips plus. We were able to capitalise on these bounces, inline with our plans to buy dips. We are now seeing price breakout of the 2901 Goldturn level and ema5 is about to lock. We will wait to confirm a lock for the continuation into the retracement level for further weighted level bounces. Failure to lock below 2901 will see a re-test back into the upper Goldturn. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2922 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2922 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2947 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2947 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2968 BEARISH TARGETS 2901 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2901 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING RETRACEMENT RANGE 2878 - 2851 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2851 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2820 - 2796 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
13
CHINA FIN MARKETS | Investing in China & AIChina's market resurgence might pose some great opportunities for investors, especially after a long bearish cycle for the global Chinese financial markets. February 2025 saw a significant shake-up in global markets, with China emerging as a key player driving investor sentiment. The MSCI China Index surged by 11.2% for the month, vastly outperforming the MSCI US Index: One of the biggest catalysts behind China’s recent rally has been its advancements in Artificial Intelligence (DeepSeekAI being one of the key drivers). By operating at a fraction of the cost of their US counterparts, such as OpenAI and Meta, DeepSeek's competitive advantage has given China an edge in the AI space, which can be seen in the market confidence. XIAOMI has been one of the top gainers, largely as they are expanding their market penetration: Chinese markets in February saw a boost when President Xi Jinping was warmly received by tech industry leaders. A handshake between Xi and Alibaba’s Jack Ma who previously stepped back from the public eye following regulatory crackdowns, was seen as a major gesture of reconciliation between the government and the private sector. This renewed support for private enterprises. China’s long-term strategy has been paying dividends in high-tech industries. China has increased its global market share in nearly all industries and is outperforming competitors in cost-efficiency, particularly in sectors like copper smelting. Despite recent gains, China’s stock market has yet to fully recover from its underperformance over the past decade. While the MSCI China Index has risen 34.6% over the past year, long-term returns still lag behind global markets. A US$100 investment in an MSCI World Index tracker in 2010 would have grown to US$480 by early 2024, whereas the same amount invested in an MSCI China Index fund would have only reached US$175. China’s resurgence has brought a renewed sense of optimism, but investors remain cautious. While AI advancements and low cost of labor have positioned China as a competitive force, historical challenges like regulatory intervention, tariffs and economic instability still loom. _________________________
NYSE:BABALong
by CryptoCheck-
3
GOLD Technical Analysis! BUY! My dear friends, My technical analysis for GOLD is below: The market is trading on 2604.7 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 2617.6 Recommended Stop Loss - 2897.7 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AnabelSignals
1
Latest USOIL Trading Signal PlanToday's crude oil opened at $66.34, slightly higher than yesterday's low, indicating that the market has some support around $65. After Wednesday's low of $65.22, the 4-hour chart closed with a positive line with a long lower shadow, showing that bulls have strong defense around $65. According to the current trend analysis, the price fell from $73.14 to $68.36, a drop of $4.78; it rebounded from $68.36 to $70.60, a rebound of $2.24, and a correction of about 50%. The drop from $70.60 to $65.22, a drop of $5.38, may theoretically have ended, but considering the support of the $65 mark, it may further fall below $65. The current trend stage may be nearing its end, but the $65 mark has not been effectively broken, and the possibility of further decline needs to be paid attention to. The target below may be in the $64.00-63.00 range. If the price stabilizes around $65, it may start to rebound, with the target in the $67.00-68.00 range. Short selling is the main method of rebounding during the day. Pay attention to the support effect of the $65 mark. If the price effectively falls below $65, short selling can be pursued, with the target at $63.00-64.00. Trading is risky and positions should be controlled reasonably. When the opportunity comes, if you don’t know when to buy or sell, pay close attention to my real-time signal announcement or leave me a message so that you can realize the joy of quick profits. FOREXCOM:USOIL FX:USOIL TVC:USOIL
TVC:USOILShort
by Cryptocurrency_analystBaker
GOLD INTRADAY Key Trading Level at 2,900Key Support and Resistance Levels Key Trading Level: 2,900 Resistance Level 1: 2,927 (intraday swing high and trendline resistance) Resistance Level 2: 2,940 Resistance Level 3: 2,955 Support Level 1: 2,870 Support Level 2: 2,830 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by TradeNation
RSI is oversold, suggesting a bottom-picking signalAlthough the unexpected cold non-farm data last Friday failed to push gold prices above the key resistance of $2,930, the logic of gold's rise has not been shaken - the five core supporting factors of global central banks' increased holdings, continued inflows of ETFs, surge in demand for physical gold, deepening of the U.S. debt crisis and excessive money supply are constantly consolidating the long-term bull market foundation of gold. From a technical perspective, the daily MACD maintains a golden cross and the energy column expands. The weekly big positive line has established a medium-term upward trend. 2,990 is only the first target, and 3,000 or even higher may become the new normal. The short-term market is in a volatile adjustment, but this is a necessary accumulation stage for a healthy rise. The current gold price is repeatedly pulling back in the range of 2,918-2,890, which is essentially a process of digesting previous profit-taking and waiting for new catalytic events. If it can effectively stand firm at the key support of $2,890, it is expected to restart the upward trend and challenge the historical high. It is worth noting that against the backdrop of the continued rise in expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the spillover of geopolitical conflict risks and high global inflation, the dual attributes of gold's "anti-inflation + safe-haven" will continue to attract capital inflows. The general trend is still mainly to go long after falling back to lows. Gold strategy suggestion: continue to go long after falling back to around 2900-2910.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-10-25: Gap/BreakawayToday's Gap Breakaway pattern suggests the markets will attempt to gap at the open, then move into a breakaway trending phase. Given the downward price trend currently in place, I believe the markets will gap downward, then possibly attempt to move higher as we pause above the 568 (pre-election) support level. Ultimately, I see the markets entering a brief pause/sideways price trend (maybe 2 to 5 days) before rolling downward again into the April 14 and May 2 base/bottom patterns. I see very little support in the markets right now - other than a potential BOUNCE setup this week and into early next week. I'm not suggesting this bounce will be a very big bullish price reversion. My upper levels are still in the 590 to 600 area for the SPY. But I do believe the markets are likely to try to find support near the 565-575 level. Gold and silver will move into a Harami Pattern today (sideways consolidation). I don't expect much related to a big move in metals today. Bitcoin is still consolidating in a very wide range. I expect the next move for Bitcoin to be a bit higher over the next 3-5+ days, so I believe the SPY/QQQ may trend a bit higher for about 3-5 days. Overall, I suggest traders stay very cautious of volatility this week. Obviously, the trend is still bearish and the current EPP phase setups suggests we are consolidating into a sideways channel before moving downward seeking the Ultimate Low patterns. Therefore, any bounce/pause in price will be very short-lived. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
Crude Oil: Is There More Downside?Following crude oil’s rebound from its September 2024 low of $65.20, the risk of a reversal remains uncertain amid ongoing bearish pressures. Key Events This Week: Chinese deflation risks OPEC monthly report US CPI data Trade war developments Potential Scenarios: 🔻 Bearish Scenario: A clean break below $65 could extend losses toward $63.80, a key level that may determine whether the market holds neutral and rebounds or breaks further into a steeper bearish trend towards $62, $60, and $55 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the 2020–2022 uptrend). 🔺 Bullish Scenario: If the rebound sustains above $67, resistance levels at $68.70, $70.80, and $72.50 could come back into play. - Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
Amid Price Uncertainty, Gold Straddle Paves the PathYellow metal prices have soared. It has been setting several new all-time highs with futures trading just shy of the USD 3,000/oz level. However, gold has struggled to breach past the crucial mark despite multiple attempts. Some data points suggest that the rally in gold might be losing steam even though fundamental demand drivers remain intact. A nuanced position is required at times like this. Options are tailored to help portfolio managers to position shrewdly in such dicey situations. GEOPOLITICAL RISK IS PERSISTENTLY ELEVATED IN THE NEW WORLD ORDER The Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) remains above one hundred since 2022 which reflects sustained global uncertainty driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions. This trend has persisted for years, with recent tariff-related uncertainty adding fuel to this fire. Data Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty Gold, as a safe haven asset, benefits from these conditions. However, the recent bond selloff has driven Treasury rates higher which could potentially reduce demand for gold as it is a non-yielding asset. CENTRAL BANKS ARE LOADING ON RISING GLOBAL TRADE UNCERTAINTIES Central banks are resuming gold purchases, with January showing an uptick, albeit below the 2024 average. The accelerating pace could signal further momentum, particularly amid rising global trade uncertainty. Data Source: WGC China resumed gold buying in November 2024 following a six-month hiatus. China was one of the largest buyers in 2023 and a repeat of that in 2025 will see a sharp demand spike. LARGE GOLD FLOWS INTO THE US The large financial institutions which serve as counterparties in the futures market have been importing significant quantities of physical gold to the US. The recent flows have surpassed levels seen during COVID pandemic. Physical imports have been driven by fears of a tariff on gold imports. However, the pace of imports has slowed down and is starting to plateau. Looking back at 2020, when similar conditions arose, prices remained stagnant after the sharp rally driven by physical gold imports. The risk of a repeating pattern is even more potent given the strong resistance at the USD 3,000/oz level. A strong driver may be required to allow prices to cross this threshold. Chart Source: WGC Another factor contributing to the temporary physical supply shock is the refining process required before gold reaches the U.S. The physical gold reserves held in London for Good Delivery are the 400-oz bars, which must be refined into 1-kilo bars for CME delivery. This process requires an intermediate stop in Switzerland, adding delays that exacerbate supply constraints. However, as the additional refined metals reach the U.S. in the coming weeks, supply is expected to normalize, potentially putting downward pressure on prices. Chart Source: WGC Other supply stress indicators are easing. Gold leasing rates, which reflect the cost of borrowing for physical use, recently surged above 5%, with near-term borrowing costs rising sharply. Leasing rates have returned to normal, albeit slightly elevated. TECHNICAL SIGNALS POINT TO STRONG MOMENTUM ENCOUNTERING RESISTANCE The summary below suggests a bullish stance in gold but prices are encountering resistance. Over the past month, prices have faced strong resistance at the USD 3,000 level despite a strongly bullish sentiment. The resistance formed after a stunning rally which pushed gold into overbought territory, a correction at this stage is expected. Should momentum fade, gold prices may continue to consolidate between present levels and the 100-day moving average. Gold futures prices formed a death-cross on 5th March 2025 which may fuel a near term price correction. GOLD VOLATILITY IS NOT LOW BUT CAN RISE HIGHER IF CONDITIONS TURNS TENSE Gold Volatility as measured by CME’s Gold CVol printed a high of 50.13 on 18th March 2020 and a low of 8.18 on 3rd May 2019. Presently hovering at 16.35, the implied volatility in gold is not too low but below average with the potential to spike higher should geopolitical or other shocks rock the market. Source: CME CVol HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Fundamentals remain intact and could intensify if tariff and/or geopolitical tensions peak. That said, the phenomenal gold rally is starting to lose shine as it encounters strong resistance with death cross forming on 5th March 2025. Supply shocks that fueled the rally in Feb are now fading. Equity risks are elevated with expensive S&P 500 P/E multiples. Geopolitical and trade risk remain tense. These conditions support a further bullish position in gold. With prices expected to swing either way, portfolio managers are best positioned to have a convex position that gains from sharp moves in either direction. To express this ambivalent view on the path ahead for gold prices, portfolio managers can utilize CME Micro Gold Options to establish a long straddle (combination of long put & long call) that gains from (a) deep pull back in prices (puts gain in value), or (b) sharp rally (calls deliver the gains), and (c) implied volatility expansion (where both puts & calls gain in value). Conversely, this trade will incur losses if prices remain flat and if volatility shrinks. The pay-off of the hypothetical long straddle set up using CME Micro Gold Options June 2025 contract expiring on 27th May 2025 is illustrated below. The long call at a strike of 2,945 will cost USD 84.9 per lot and the long put at the same strike will cost USD 86.9 per lot adding up to USD 171.80 per lot in total premiums. The long straddle will generate positive returns at expiry if the underlying futures prices are (a) above the upper break even point of USD 3,116.80/oz, or (b) below the lower break even point of USD 2,732.20/oz. Source: QuikStrike Strategy Simulator If the underlying futures prices stay within the break-even points, this straddle is exposed to a maximum loss of USD 171.80/lot representing the total premium. Happy Investing. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by mintdotfinance
XAUUSD One more push to 3100 to price the Top.Gold (XAUUSD) continues to trade within its 2025 Channel Up, in fact the uptrend started a little bit sooner on the November 14 2024 bottom. As we've mentioned before and you can see again today, this is a recurring pattern which has been in effect since October 2022, the bottom of the Inflation Crisis. This involves the market forming Channel Up patterns of around +20% price increase, which are supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and when that breaks, they bottom around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and then turn into a buy opportunity for the next Channel Up. The 1D RSI Double Tops and signals the price (Channel Up) High. It's first Top is where Gold is right now, typically within the 0.5 - 0.382 Fib Zone. The only time it was above the 0.382 Fib, was when it rose by +22%. As a result, we expect a similar course and a price peak around $3100 but the most effective sell signal remains when the 1D RSI Double Tops. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot