Commodities
USOIL BULLS ARE STRONG HERE|LONG
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 69.37
Target Level: 70.64
Stop Loss: 68.53
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 2h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Silver H4 | Overlap support at 50% Fibonacci retracementSilver (XAG/USD) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 32.69 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 31.70 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 34.02 which is a swing-high resistance.
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The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
XAUUSD: 3/4 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance 3200, support below 3100
Four-hour chart resistance 3170, support below 3100
One-hour chart resistance 3150, support below 3105.
Gold news analysis: For weeks, Trump has been claiming that April 2 is "Liberation Day", on which the United States will introduce large-scale reciprocal tariffs that may subvert the global trade system, and plans to announce this wave of new tariffs at 4 pm Eastern Time (in the Rose Garden of the White House). According to the Washington Post, Trump's aides are considering a plan to impose tariffs of about 20% on products from almost all countries, rather than targeting certain countries or certain products. According to the newspaper, the government expects the new tariffs to bring more than 6 Trillion dollars of income, these income can be returned to Americans in the form of tax refunds.
Gold operation suggestions: Gold consolidated yesterday and held the 3100 integer mark. Today, the Asian session opened and broke through. After reaching 3167.8, it began to turn downward and fell below the short-term long and short top and bottom conversion position of 3135.
From the current trend analysis, the short-term support below focuses on 3100-3105 on the one-hour/four-hour/daily chart. The daily level stabilizes above this position and continues to buy at a low level. Patiently wait for the retracement to buy. Short selling can only enter the market after the key support is lost.
Buy: 3120near SL:3115
Buy: 3105near SL:3099
Buy: 3100near SL:3095
For more daily sharing, please pay attention
WTI CRUDE OIL TRADE SETUP : BREAKOUT OR BREAKDOWN ?📊 Key Observations:
🔹 Trend:
🚀 Strong bullish move followed by a correction 📉
🔻 Price is testing a support zone
🔹 Pattern Formation:
📏 Descending channel or flag-like structure
📍 Price is near a breakout point
🔹 Trade Setup:
✅ Entry Zone: Around 70.77
🛑 Stop Loss: 70.44 - 70.49 (Risk limit ❌)
🎯 Target Point: 71.80 (Profit zone ✅)
🔹 Indicators & Confirmation:
📊 DEMA (9) at 70.92 → Price is slightly below short-term momentum
🔥 A breakout above resistance could confirm a bullish move 🚀
📌 Conclusion:
✅ If price breaks the trendline upwards → Buy 📈 aiming for 71.80 🎯
❌ If support at 70.44-70.49 fails → More downside possible ⚠️
🚀 Watch for volume & candlestick confirmation before entering!
Gold H1 | Approaching multi-swing-low supportGold (XAU/USD) is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 3,106.58 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 3,071.00 which is a level that lies underneath a multi-swing-low support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 3,162.54 which is a swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Trump's Tariff War! GOLD nears targetIn Asian trading on Thursday (April 3), the market's risk-off sentiment increased, boosted by Trump's wide-ranging tariff actions. Spot gold prices jumped to $3,167.77/ounce in early trading, up nearly $37 in a day and hitting a new record high.
OANDA:XAUUSD Continues to Rise as Trump Launches Tariff Campaign
The US Dollar fell sharply in Asian trading on Thursday, contributing to the boost in gold prices. The US Dollar Index is currently at around 103.050, down more than 60 points on the day.
On April 2, local time, the White House issued a statement saying that US President Trump declared a national emergency on the same day to enhance US competitiveness, protect US sovereignty, and strengthen US national and economic security. Trump declared this as America's "declaration of economic independence".
The statement said that Trump will impose a 10% "base tariff" on all countries, effective from 0:01 a.m. Eastern time on April 5. In addition, Trump will impose higher, personalized "reciprocal tariffs" on countries with the largest US trade deficits, effective from 0:01 a.m. Eastern time on April 9. All other countries will continue to adhere to the original base tariff of 10%.
Gold prices hit a new record above $3,160 an ounce after US President Donald Trump announced comprehensive “reciprocal” tariffs, imposing a minimum 10% tax on imported goods, raising concerns that this could trigger a global economic recession.
Investors have flocked to gold as concerns about the health of the global economy have grown. Gold prices have risen 20% this year after a strong rally in 2024, driven largely by central bank buying and strong demand in Asia.
AND IT WILL KEEP RISE AS FUNDAMENTAL SUPPORT IS ABSOLUTELY IN PLACE!
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after approaching the target level of attention to readers in yesterday's publication at the price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension, there are temporary signs of cooling down, mainly this is considered a correction state after a shock increase.
In terms of trends, gold is currently being noticed by the short-term price channel, this is an uptrend in which the medium-term trend at the price channel is also an uptrend channel, in addition, EMA21 is also the current main support.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also in an uptrend channel, which shows that gold is also in an uptrend in terms of momentum, and a signal for a possible downward correction in terms of momentum can only occur when the RSI folds downwards below 80.
As long as gold remains in the price channel, it is still in an uptrend in the short term, and the notable positions for the day will be listed as follows.
Support: 3,135 – 3,106 – 3,100 USD
Resistance: 3,172 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3171 - 3169⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 3175
→Take Profit 1 3163
↨
→Take Profit 2 3157
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3098 - 3100⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 3094
→Take Profit 1 3106
↨
→Take Profit 2 3112
Crude Oil Dipped, Testing Critical Support Level FenzoFx—Crude oil dropped from $72.20 and is now testing the $68.8 support. The decline was expected as the Stochastic oscillator signaled overbought conditions.
If $68.8 breaks, the downtrend could extend to $67.6.
Bullish Scenario : However, a higher low above $70.15 would invalidate the bearish outlook, potentially pushing prices back to $72.20.
Gold short-term analysis and signalsOn the daily chart, gold started the downward adjustment mode on Tuesday, breaking the previous continuous rise in one fell swoop. However, the current moving average system still maintains an upward divergent shape. The 4-hour chart of gold maintains a high range of fluctuations. At present, the short-term moving average is basically in a state of adhesion and flattening. It is highly likely to continue to maintain a high-level oscillation trend during the day.
The 1-hour moving average of gold is still golden cross upward, with a bullish divergent arrangement. Although gold fell below the moving average support yesterday, the strength of gold bulls to bottom out and rebound is still relatively strong, and coupled with the support of gold safe-haven, the bulls will eventually dominate. As long as it does not fall below 3100, it will continue to be strongly bullish.
After the announcement of the tariff policy, the risk aversion sentiment of gold has escalated, and gold has broken upward again. Then the previous resistance of gold has now become support again. The previous platform support of gold, 3135, has broken upward, so gold has now formed support at 3135. Gold will continue to buy in the Asian session. After the sideways fluctuation, gold bulls once again exerted their strength under the stimulation of risk aversion, so they will continue to trade with the trend.
Gold's 1-hour moving average turned upward again, and the bulls regained control of the main field. If gold falls back to the previous platform support of 3135 in the Asian session, it can continue to buy on dips. Now the risk aversion sentiment stimulates the rise of gold. Don't chase the highs directly for the time being, and wait patiently for opportunities after the decline.
Key points:
First support: 3140, second support: 3133, third support: 3120
First resistance: 3166, second resistance: 3174, third resistance: 3187
Operation ideas:
Buy: 3132-3135, SL: 3124, TP: 3150-3160;
Sell: 3174-3177, SL: 3185, TP: 3150-3140;
XAUUSD Analysis: Why I’m Not Buying Gold at the Highs!Gold’s Rally: A Strategic Plan for the Next Buy Setup!
✨ Gold (XAUUSD) has experienced a strong rally recently, fueled by the stock market sell-off. However, I’m waiting for a better entry point rather than buying at the current highs, as price is trading at a premium. 📉 My focus is on a potential retracement on the daily and 4-hour timeframes, targeting a pullback into the swing low-to-high range. Specifically, I’m watching for price to return to the equilibrium zone around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. 🔄 If price pulls back and we see a bullish break of market structure in this area, it could present a solid buying opportunity. Until then, patience is key! 🛠️
⚠️ This is not financial advice. Always trade responsibly and conduct your own analysis.
Gold (XAU/USD) – Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish SetupOverview
Gold (XAU/USD) has been in a strong uptrend, making consistent higher highs and higher lows. However, the price action has formed a Rising Wedge Pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal formation. This pattern suggests that the bullish momentum is weakening, and a potential sell-off could follow.
The recent breakdown of the wedge structure confirms the bearish bias, and sellers are now in control. Based on price action analysis, we can anticipate further downside movement toward key support levels.
📊 Technical Analysis – Rising Wedge Breakdown
1️⃣ Understanding the Rising Wedge Pattern
The Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that occurs when the price consolidates within an upward-sloping channel but shows signs of exhaustion. Here’s how it developed:
Higher Highs & Higher Lows: The price consistently formed higher peaks and troughs, indicating an uptrend.
Declining Bullish Momentum: As the wedge progressed, price action became increasingly squeezed, showing reduced bullish strength.
Breakout Confirmation: Once the lower trendline of the wedge was breached, it confirmed that buyers were losing control and that sellers had stepped in.
2️⃣ Key Levels & Market Structure
🔵 Resistance Level: The upper boundary of the wedge around $3,150 - $3,163 acted as a supply zone, where sellers pushed prices lower.
🟠 Support Level: The lower boundary of the wedge, around $3,100 - $3,120, initially provided demand but eventually failed to hold.
🔻 Breakdown Confirmation: The price broke below the wedge, which is a strong bearish signal.
🎯 Trade Setup & Strategy
3️⃣ Bearish Trading Plan
Given the breakdown of the wedge pattern, the setup favors a short (sell) trade. Here’s how to approach it:
📉 Sell Entry:
The ideal short position is initiated after a confirmed break of the wedge’s support level.
📍 Stop Loss (SL):
A tight stop-loss is placed above the previous resistance at $3,163.67, ensuring risk is controlled if the trade goes against the bias.
🎯 Take Profit (TP) Targets:
TP 1: $3,080.66 – First major support level, where buyers might step in temporarily.
TP 2: $3,057.33 – Extended downside target, offering a greater risk-to-reward ratio.
4️⃣ Additional Price Expectations
Retest of the Wedge Breakdown: The price may pull back to the broken wedge support before continuing downward.
Stronger Bearish Momentum: If selling pressure remains strong, price could fall even lower, breaking TP 2.
Invalidation Level: If price climbs above $3,163, the wedge breakdown would be invalidated, signaling that bulls have regained control.
📌 Conclusion & Market Sentiment
🔹 Rising Wedge Breakdown Signals Further Downside – The market structure suggests that sellers are gaining control.
🔹 Sell Setup with Risk-Managed Approach – With a defined stop-loss and two profit targets, this trade offers a favorable risk-to-reward setup.
🔹 Gold’s Short-Term Bearish Outlook – The chart confirms a potential correction, and price may drop towards $3,080 and $3,057 if the bearish momentum continues.
📊 Final Thought:
This is a high-probability short trade based on classic technical analysis. Traders should monitor for confirmation retests and manage risk accordingly. ✅
Would you like any refinements or additional insights? 🚀
XAU/USD(20250403) Today's AnalysisMarket news:
US trade policy-① Trump signed an executive order to establish a 10% "minimum base tariff" for all countries, and will impose reciprocal tariffs, including 20% for the EU, 24% for Japan, 46% for Vietnam, and 25% for South Korea. The tariff exemption for goods that meet the USMCA will continue, and the tariff for those that do not meet the requirements will remain at 25%; ② The US Treasury Secretary called on countries not to retaliate; ③ The base tariff will take effect on April 5, and the reciprocal tariff will take effect on the 9th. In addition, the 25% automobile tariff will take effect on the 3rd, and the automobile parts tariff will take effect on May 3rd; ④ Gold bars, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and wood products are also not subject to "reciprocal tariffs".
Today's long and short boundaries:
3127
Support and resistance levels
3164
3150
3141
3113
3103
3089
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 3150, consider going long, with the first target price at 3164
If the price breaks through 3141, consider going short, with the first target price at 3127
WTI Crude Oil (XTIUSD) – H4 SELL SetupWTI Crude Oil (XTIUSD) – H4 SELL Setup
Price has reacted from a key H4 supply zone after taking out previous highs. A clean bearish shift suggests continuation to the downside.
🔹 Entry: At supply zone
🔹 SL: Above mitigation zone
🔹 TPs:
First support
Equal lows
Extended swing low
Bias: Bearish
Reasoning: Liquidity sweep + market structure shift + imbalance
XAUUSD H1 | Bearish fall in the short termBased on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 3150.56, which is a pullback resistance.
Our take profit will be at 3132.63, a pullback support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 3168, which is a swing high resistance level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Gold is reversing before reaching the round $3,000 mark.Gold is reversing before reaching the round $3,000 mark.
As you can see on the chart, we’ve hit the 227% Fibonacci level.
— Back in 2008, after testing this level, we went into a correction.
— I think we might see a similar scenario play out from here.
Dollar Index:
SP500/SPY:
Gold reverses sharply after Trump's tax announcementThe world gold price has reversed sharply because the global market has just received information last night (Hanoi time) that US President Donald Trump has just signed an executive order to impose taxes on all goods imported into the US, many countries will have to pay high taxes of up to tens of percent.
Specifically, the UK, Brazil, Singapore will be subject to a 10% tax. The European Union, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea, and India will be subject to 20-26%. China, Thailand, and Vietnam are among the countries subject to the highest tax rates, at 34%, 36%, and 46%, respectively. The highest is Cambodia, which will be subject to a tax rate of up to 49%. This tax rate will be applied from April 9. In addition, Mr. Trump said that a 10% import tax will be applied to all goods imported into the US from April 5.
Mr. Trump said that every year the US loses 1,200 billion USD due to the trade deficit due to 3,000 billion USD of imported goods.
After this information, the global financial market was shaken, in which the US stock market had a strong decline, losing from more than 1% to more than 2%. On the contrary, gold - an asset that ensures capital safety in case of risk - has benefited from a strong increase in price.
Many experts commented that the Trump government's tariff policy has increased global trade tensions. Previously, the US imposed tariffs on some goods from Canada, Europe and China, aluminum and steel. These countries have responded to the tariffs on the US.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher on the daily chart. However, following the announcement of mutual tariffs after the previous session’s close, the index experienced a significant gap-down. On the daily chart, the MACD has crossed below the signal line, generating a sell signal, though confirmation is still pending. If today's session closes with a bearish candle, we must monitor whether this leads to a third wave of selling, signaling further downside.
Due to the gap-down, the price is now significantly distanced from the 3-day and 5-day moving averages (MAs), making it crucial to observe whether the price rebounds intraday or continues to decline further. With the first support level at 19,000 now breached, the next key support is around 18,500. When considering buy positions, it is essential to manage stop-loss risk carefully.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has appeared but is not yet confirmed. If confirmed, it could trigger a third wave of selling pressure, potentially leading to further declines. Given the increased market volatility, a cautious approach is recommended—reducing leverage and only trading at key price levels to minimize potential losses.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed higher while maintaining a range-bound movement around $72. On the daily chart, the MACD has moved above the signal line and the zero line, establishing a bullish trend. However, following the mutual tariff announcement, the price gapped down, dropping below $70. The strongest support zone lies around $68, making it crucial to observe whether the MACD adjusts and aligns with the signal line before rebounding from this support level to resume the bullish trend.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has appeared, but with multiple support levels nearby and both MACD and the signal line still above the zero line, the market is likely to attempt rebounds. A buy-the-dip approach remains favorable, but caution is necessary given today’s OPEC meeting, which could lead to increased volatility.
Gold
Gold closed higher, finding support at the 5-day MA. Following the mutual tariff announcement, the price initially gapped up to around 3,200, before pulling back. As previously mentioned, the upward target for this wave is around 3,216, with strong buying momentum continuing. On the daily chart, gold is trading between the 5-day MA and the upper Bollinger Band, maintaining a one-way bullish structure.
A bullish strategy remains favorable unless the daily close falls below the 10-day MA. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD remains above the zero line and previously attempted to break above the signal line but has since pulled back. Since buying momentum is still present, if the price finds support at a key supply zone, another leg higher could occur, potentially triggering a golden cross in the MACD and leading to a third wave of buying pressure.
Short positions should be approached with caution, and given the increased market volatility, risk management is crucial. Whether buying or selling, stop-loss discipline is essential to manage potential risks.
Market volatility has surged since the pre-market session due to Trump’s mutual tariff policies. Volatility is both an opportunity and a risk for traders. Do not let greed lead to losses in a market that doesn’t match your trading style. Adjust position sizes accordingly and only trade within your comfort zone. The market is always open. Do not focus solely on today—take a steady and stable approach to trading.
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