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BITCOIN The Super Cycle Still Unfolding Wave 3 in Motion!Bitcoin continues to respect the Main Trend Indicator, keeping the broader super cycle wave (3) intact. Based on our projection, the ongoing bullish leg is expected to complete near $172,000, marking the end of wave (III). From there, we anticipate a corrective wave (IV) to unfold likely breaking below the uptrend support toward the $107K region. This move will act as the last deep pullback before Bitcoin begins its final explosive rally (wave V) that could extend toward $300K, concluding the entire bull cycle before a true bear market emerges. Historical Parallel: To understand this better, it’s important to recall the 2020–2021 bull cycle. Back then, BTC repeatedly tested a similar dynamic trendline, maintaining its strength as long as the structure held. Even after the eventual breakdown that confirmed the bull cycle’s exhaustion, price still pushed to a new all-time high before the real decline began. This serves as a crucial reminder market tops rarely happen instantly. They evolve with clear structural warnings, and we may be approaching such a phase again. Key Takeaway: As long as Bitcoin trades above the Main Trend Indicator, the bull cycle remains valid. A confirmed breakdown below it, however, will signal the start of the macro correction phase one that may eventually reset the entire structure. Stay prepared, stay disciplined, and understand that each phase of the cycle brings new opportunities. If you find this analysis insightful, don’t forget to like, share, and drop your thoughts below, your engagement helps keep quality analysis alive! Meanwhile, I’ve noticed a surge in volume across Binance Alpha projects. Drop your coin name below for a quick market analysis.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by weslad
89
Lingrid | GOLD Weekly Analysis: Pullback From Record HighsThe price perfectly fulfilled my previous weekly idea . OANDA:XAUUSD market continues to navigate through considerable volatility as it pulls back from the recent spike that tested zone below the $4,400 resistance zone. After achieving a new all-time high, the metal is now experiencing natural selling pressure and technical correction, bringing some gravitational force into the equation. Despite this near-term weakness, the underlying trend structure remains constructively bullish, suggesting any substantial decline could present attractive entry opportunities for those seeking value. The technical landscape reveals gold trading within a well-defined upward channel that has guided the rally since late September. The recent rejection from resistance has brought price action back toward the mid-channel area around $4,200, which aligns with the previous Monday high below and represents a crucial inflection, optimal entry point. The triangle pattern that formed during the consolidation phase earlier in the trend provided the springboard for the explosive breakout, and now the market may repeat this pattern, creating continuation formation. The key support zone sits at $4,130-$4,135, and holding above this level would keep the bullish structure intact for another potential test of $4,400 and beyond toward the $4,500 projection zone. However, failure to hold could trigger deeper correction toward the lower channel boundary near $4,000 or even the stronger support at $3,730-$3,780, which would actually offer more compelling risk-reward for strategic accumulation. The coming week will clarify whether this represents healthy digestion or something more corrective in nature. If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lingrid
35
Gold Extends Its 8-Week Winning Streak👋Hello everyone, what are your thoughts on OANDA:XAUUSD ? Over the past week, gold prices climbed close to the $4,400 mark before pulling back sharply and closing the week around $4,250, up $223 from the weekly open of $4,022 — nearly a 6% gain, marking the eighth consecutive week of growth. Despite the volatility, Main Street investors remain confident that the precious metal will continue to rise this week. Trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties have been the key drivers supporting gold’s rally. Meanwhile, the Fed’s rate cut and the U.S. government shutdown have strengthened the dollar while simultaneously providing support for gold prices. At the time of writing, gold is fluctuating around $4,255, showing little change since the start of the session. Overall, the bullish trend remains intact, and as long as the confluence zone holds, buying opportunities are still favored. What about you — what’s your outlook on XAUUSD? 💬Share your thoughts in the comments below, and let’s discuss! Good luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kevinn_Nguyen
23
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone, Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 4275 and a gap below at 4229. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges. BULLISH TARGET 275 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4275 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 4320 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4320 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 4360 BEARISH TARGETS 4229 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 4229 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 4194 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 4194 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 4151 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 4151 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 4122 4075 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 4075 WILL OPEN THE SECONDAARY SWING RANGE 4022 3955 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
24
JP Morgan (JPM) - H4 - Breakout Pattern (20.10.2025)📊 Setup Overview: J.P. Morgan ( NYSE:JPM ), presenting a bearish outlook based on the price action. 📈 Trade Plan: Bias: Bearish below $310 1st Target: $272 ✅ 2nd Target: $258.52 🎯 Resistance Zone: $311 – $318 🧩 Technical Confluence: 1.Price Breaks the Wedge Pattern. 2.Trendline break confirming reversal 3.Ichimoku Cloud crossover indicating bearish momentum 🏦 Key Fundamentals & Recent Performance 1.JPM reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted revenue of ~$47.12 billion, topping estimates. 2.Net interest income (NII) rose only ~2% YoY in Q3 to $24.1 billion, and the bank raised its 2025 NII outlook to ~$95.8 billion. 3.JPM itself flags major risks: ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, elevated asset valuations, potential credit stress and slower growth. #JPM #JPMStock #NASDAQ #USStocks #TechnicalAnalysis #wedgePattern #BearishSetup #PriceAction #EarningsWatch #StockMarket #SwingTrading #TradingView #Ichimoku #CloudCrossover #ChartsDontLie #Kabhi_TA_Trading ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not investment advice. Always perform your own due diligence and manage risk appropriately before taking any position. 💬 Support the Analysis: If this chart helped you — LIKE 👍, COMMENT 💬 your thoughts, and FOLLOW ✅ for more daily stock & forex chart breakdowns from Kabhi_TA_Trading!
NYSE:JPMShort
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
10
Lingrid | BTCUSDT Consolidation Period Following CorrectionBINANCE:BTCUSDT remains under heavy pressure after a sharp rebound from 102K met resistance near the 114K–115K zone. The market continues to respect its downward structure within the broad descending channel, suggesting sellers are still in control. A rejection around the trendline could confirm a new bearish leg toward 107.5K or even 102K if weakness accelerates. Overall momentum favors further downside as lower highs keep forming under resistance. ⚠️ Risks: Sudden bullish breakout above 115K could invalidate the bearish channel. Positive macro news or ETF inflows could trigger short-term recovery. Oversold market conditions may lead to a temporary corrective bounce. If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Short
by Lingrid
15
GBP/NZD - Wedge Breakdown (20.10.2025)📊 Setup Overview: GBP/NZD has formed a Rising Wedge Pattern on the 30-min chart, signaling a potential trend reversal from the recent bullish structure. The pair has also completed a Cloud Cross, indicating early bearish momentum as price begins to break below the wedge support line. OANDA:GBPNZD 📈 Trade Plan: Bias: Bearish Sell Entry Zone: Below 2.3400 (after candle close confirmation) 1st Target: 2.3288 ✅ 2nd Target: 2.3277 🎯 Resistance Zone: 2.3479 – 2.3523 🧩 Technical Highlights: 1.Rising Wedge pattern breakdown – early bearish signal 2.Ichimoku Cloud Cross confirms downside pressure 3.Volume profile thinning below 2.34, showing potential liquidity vacuum 4.Clean bearish structure with clear risk–reward setup #GBPNZD #ForexAnalysis #WedgePattern #BearishBreakout #Ichimoku #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #ChartSetup #SwingTrade #TradingView #FXMarket #Kabhi_TA_Trading #ChartsDontLie #TradersDontQuit #ForexSignals ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always confirm setups with your own analysis and manage risk properly before entering any trade. 💬 Support This Analysis: If this setup helped your trading view — LIKE 👍, COMMENT 💬 your thoughts, and FOLLOW ✅ for more daily forex setups and chart breakdowns from Kabhi_TA_Trading!
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
12
USDJPY – Yen Weakens as Japan Forms New Coalition👋Hello everyone, what are your thoughts on FX:USDJPY ? At the start of the new week, USDJPY is showing interesting movements following news that Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party have agreed to form a coalition government. This development paves the way for Sanae Takaichi to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister, sparking market expectations of increased fiscal spending and a more accommodative monetary policy. From a market perspective, these expectations tend to weaken the yen, as investors anticipate low interest rates to continue and ample liquidity support from the Bank of Japan. As a result, USDJPY is likely to maintain its upward momentum, with potential for further gains if the U.S. dollar continues to be supported by higher Treasury yields and solid U.S. economic data. What about you — do you think USDJPY will keep rising or start to fall? 💬Share your thoughts in the comments below! Good luck!
Long
by Kevinn_Nguyen
14
Discipline vs. Motivation: The Trader’s Real Edge1. Introduction Most traders wait to “feel motivated” before they act. They look for that burst of excitement to drive their next session. But motivation is unreliable. It fades after a few losses, a bad week, or a missed setup. The traders who last aren’t driven by motivation. They’re driven by discipline, the quiet consistency that shows up even when excitement disappears. 2. Why Motivation Fails Motivation is emotional. It peaks after a win and collapses after a setback. When you rely on it, your behavior becomes inconsistent. Examples: – You skip journaling when tired. – You overtrade after a loss. – You hesitate until you “feel ready.” Motivation starts the journey. Discipline finishes it. The traders who survive long term are those who act from process, not mood. 3. The Power of Routine Discipline isn’t about willpower. It’s about structure. A simple daily routine removes emotional decision-making and replaces it with clarity. One example framework: Pre-market: Review levels and define risk. During trading: Execute only setups that fit your plan. Post-session: Journal outcomes and walk away. Done consistently, this becomes second nature. You’ll trade correctly even when you don’t “feel like it.” 4. When Discipline Feels Boring Discipline is not exciting. It’s repetitive, quiet, and often dull — but that’s why it works. The more boring your process, the more consistent your results. Amateurs seek excitement. Professionals seek predictability. 5. The Real Lesson Motivation fades. Discipline compounds. Every time you follow your rules — even on a losing day — you strengthen the foundation of a professional mindset. The market rewards consistency, not emotion.
Education
by HyroTrader
7
GBP/USD - Fundamental Drive Ahead! (21.10.2025)🧠 Setup Overview: GBP/USD has broken below its rising trendline after testing the 1.3470 resistance zone multiple times. The pair is under fundamental selling pressure, fueled by risk aversion and renewed U.S. dollar strength. Fundamental Drivers: 1️⃣ U.S. markets gained as President Trump decided not to impose very high tariffs on Chinese goods, which temporarily boosted sentiment. 2️⃣ However, investors are now digesting U.S. credit risks and US–China trade tensions, both adding safe-haven demand to the USD. 3️⃣ Meanwhile, the UK economy faces uncertainty from softer consumer spending and weak housing data — further limiting GBP’s upside potential. 📉 Technical Plan: Bias: Bearish below 1.3400 Structure: Trendline breakdown confirmed Cloud Resistance: Adds confluence to downside momentum Next Levels to Watch: 🟥 1st Support: 1.3349 🟥 2nd Support: 1.3310 📊 If price closes below 1.3349 on the 30-min chart, further selling pressure may extend toward 1.3310 and possibly deeper if fundamentals align. #GBPUSD #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #Ichimoku #TrendlineBreak #FXMarket #BearishSetup #TradingView #KABHI_TA_TRADING ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only — not financial advice. Always manage your risk and use proper position sizing before entering any trade. 📣 Support My Work If you found this analysis useful — LIKE 👍, COMMENT 💬, and FOLLOW 🔔 to stay updated with daily Forex setups!
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
15
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG: A fantastic start to the week with price following and the indicator levels on the dip before resuming the move upside into the regions we wanted. We did say yesterday that the move on Friday was a little suspicions and we had a feeling they would correct the move this week, little did we know it would happen in one day. We have now broken above the level after updating traders suggesting scalps only for the short from the hotspot, which worked well but we're a little stretched now. Support here is way down at the 4310-6 level and resistance stands at 4355 which is where we may get a potential RIP back into support before further advances in price. KOG’s bias of the week: Bullish above 4230 Bearish below 4220 RED BOXES: Break above 4255 for 4265✅, 4270✅, 4284✅ and 4304✅ in extension of the move Break below 4237 for 4230, 4220, 4210, 4206, 4185 and 4177 in extension of the move As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
3
ETHUSDT – Bullish Breakout Ahead?👋Hello everyone, do you think BINANCE:ETHUSDT will go up or down? From a technical perspective, the pair has successfully broken above the descending trendline. This breakout opens up a potential opportunity for a new short-term uptrend. In addition, ETHUSDT is currently reacting to a clearly defined support zone. If Ethereum continues to hold above this support area, I expect the price could rise toward the next resistance level near $4,300. From a broader viewpoint, market sentiment is gradually improving as investors regain confidence in risk assets, amid expectations of a softer Fed policy and growing interest in Ethereum’s upcoming network upgrades. As long as ETH stays above $3,750, the bullish outlook remains valid, and buyers may soon regain control of the market. What about you — do you agree with this view? 💬Share your thoughts in the comments below. I’d love to hear your opinion!
Long
by Kevinn_Nguyen
12
USDJPY Rally Faces Pressure Near 151.250 on Safe-Haven FlowsHey Traders, in the coming week we’re monitoring USDJPY for a selling opportunity around the 151.250 zone. The pair remains in a broader downtrend, currently in a corrective phase as it approaches this key resistance level. Meanwhile, DXY is also correcting within its own downtrend, approaching resistance near 98.600, which reinforces the bearish bias on USD pairs. With US–China tensions escalating, we’re seeing renewed safe-haven demand for JPY, potentially setting the stage for another leg lower in USDJPY. Trade safe, Joe
Short
by JoeChampion
16
AUDUSD - Buy the dip at daily support!AUDUSD is still traveling inside a broader descending channel, but on the H1 we’ve carved a tight range/contracting structure. Price is now approaching a daily support zone that aligns with the channel’s lower boundary and a local rising base—strong confluence for a bounce. I’ll look for longs from the green support area after a clear H1 bullish reaction (wick rejections, bullish engulfing, or break–retest of the intraday lower-high line). If triggered, I’ll trail into the range highs first, then the upper orange boundary. All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr.
Long
by TheSignalyst
4
Lingrid | EURUSD Round Number Resistance Short SetupFX:EURUSD faded from a lower high at the channel border and slipped back beneath the 1.1700 pivot inside the highlighted range. Structure shows a descending sequence within a broader downward channel, with the recent squeeze stalling just under the 1.1700 mark. While price holds below 1.1700, continuation toward 1.16175 and potentially 1.1600 is favored. Bearish momentum prevails with lower highs and repeated rejections from trend resistance. ⚠️ Risks: A sustained reclaim and 4H close above 1.1700 would invalidate the bearish view. US data/ECB headlines could spark volatility and squeeze price higher. A DXY pullback or broad risk-on bid could buoy FX:EURUSD toward 1.1780. If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Short
by Lingrid
4
AMAZON (AMZN) - H4 - Double Top Breakdown (19.10.2025)📊 Setup Overview: Amazon stock (NASDAQ: AMZN) is forming a Double Top Reversal Pattern on the 4H chart, signaling potential weakness after failing twice to break above the major resistance zone near $238–$240.The price has also broken below the ascending trendline with a cloud crossover, confirming bearish momentum building up. NASDAQ:AMZN 📈 Trade Plan: Bias: Bearish below $220 1st Target: $197.91 ✅ 2nd Target: $183.99 🎯 Resistance Zone: $238 – $240 🧩 Technical Confluence: 1.Double Top formation near major resistance zone 2.Trendline break confirming reversal 3.Ichimoku Cloud crossover indicating bearish momentum 4.Volume profile shows selling pressure increasing below $215 📉 Fundamental Amazon (AMZN): Amazon remains one of the most dominant global tech giants, but several near-term factors could impact its price action: ⚡Upcoming Earnings (Late October 2025): 1.Analysts project Q3 FY2025 revenue around $158–160 billion, with EPS expectations near $1.24–$1.30. 2.Focus will be on AWS (Amazon Web Services) performance — which still contributes over 50% of total operating income, but has shown slower growth due to corporate cost-cutting and cloud competition. ⚡Retail & E-commerce Trends: 1.Amazon’s North America segment remains strong but margin pressure continues due to logistics and rising fulfillment costs. 2.The company’s push into AI-driven retail advertising could offset some of that weakness if ad revenue exceeds expectations. ⚡Broader Market Context: 1.With U.S. yields staying elevated, large-cap tech stocks like Amazon may face valuation compression. 2.Institutional rotation toward value and defensive stocks could further weigh on AMZN in the short term. 🎯Overall, fundamentals remain strong for the long-term, but the technical structure suggests a near-term correction before accumulation resumes. #AMZN #AmazonStock #NASDAQ #USStocks #TechnicalAnalysis #DoubleTopPattern #BearishSetup #PriceAction #EarningsWatch #StockMarket #SwingTrading #TradingView #Ichimoku #CloudCrossover #ChartsDontLie #Kabhi_TA_Trading ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not investment advice. Always perform your own due diligence and manage risk appropriately before taking any position. 💬 Support the Analysis: If this chart helped you — LIKE 👍, COMMENT 💬 your thoughts, and FOLLOW ✅ for more daily stock & forex chart breakdowns from Kabhi_TA_Trading!
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
17
Does the MAG7 Really Rule the S&P 500? I have heard people say things like: "Without the mag 7, SPY would go nowhere" and "Apple IS the market" and "Tech is what the market is built on". Various things to that effect. I have heard this more with the quite obvious AI bubble going on, where the extreme bullishness and propping of the market is being attributed to the heavily weighted mag 7 stocks, such as NVDA, META, MSFT, AAPL etc. etc. But I wondered to myself, how true is this? And what happens when and/or if the bubble pops? What stocks are really carrying the S&P and is it true that all that matters is tech? So, being the quant based math person I am, I decided to answer this question in the best way I knew how. Math and coding. The questions I want to answer are: What are the top 10 weighted stocks of the S&P? What are the top 20 stocks over the last 5 years that have gained the most returns? Is it all tech? What happens if the AI bubble were to pop and tech were to become a drain on the S&P? Question #1: Is tech disproportionately weighted on the S&P? So, let's get into the process. The first thing to do was to analyze actually how heavily tech is weighed on the S&P. This is simple enough, I can accomplish this by pulling ETF holdings from Alpha Vantage and getting their corresponding weight. Using Alpha Vantage's API, I pulled the top 10 highly weighted stocks of the S&P and here are the results: So.. yeah, SPY heavily favours tech in terms of weighing. Question #2: Does tech actually carry the S&P and is it the only reason the S&P sees the gains it does? To answer this question, we need to find out, over the last 5 years, which stocks had the highest average annual return? I isolated the top 20 stocks with the highest average returns and also calculated the number of bullish vs bearish years over the 5 year period, here are the results: You should already be seeing something interesting. While there is indeed some tech in here, there are a substantial amount of non-tech tickers. For example, NYSE:BLDR is a construction based ticker, NASDAQ:HOOD is finance, NYSE:PWR , NYSE:EME and NYSE:VST are utility based/power/electric based tickers. You also don't see such tickers as NASDAQ:META or NASDAQ:MSFT leading the gains. So already we have invalidated the thesis that "tech runs the market", as only 6 of these top 20 tickers are tech based, the rest vary from utilities, to finance to construction. Another interesting thing to note is that utilities tend to be resistant to negative returns/draw downs. If you notice, NYSE:PWR , NYSE:EME , and NYSE:VST have had 0 bearish years in the past 5 years, vs the rest having some draw downs. Interesting, no? We can't draw conclusions about the stability or returns of tech stocks from this, but we can draw conclusions about the importance of diversification. We can opine that tech sees more swings and is more prone to volatility than say stable utility based tickers. But it doesn't mean that the actual cumulative returns over 5 years wouldn't outweigh a stable stock that maybe has less returns. So now that our findings raise this question, let's compare what our returns would be if we had bought some of these top performers 5 years ago. Let's start with NASDAQ:NVDA If you bought NASDAQ:NVDA October 20th, 2020, you would have bought at 13.65 per share (bearing in mind there was a split between this timeframe). Current price is 182.64, making your 5 year return 1238.46%. Now NYSE:BLDR If you bought NYSE:BLDR on October 20th of 2020, you would have bought it for 33.66 per share, with the current price being 122.46 being a 263.76% return on your investment. Next NASDAQ:AVGO If you bought AVGO on October 20th of 2020, you would have paid 37.7$ per share, with a current price of 349.24, making your return over 5 years 826.39%. Not bad. What about NYSE:PWR Ah, NYSE:PWR , a stable stock with 0 bearish years over the last 5 years. Had we purchased NYSE:PWR October 20th, 2020, we would currently be up 599.14%. And what about NYSE:VST ? Had we bought VST 5 years ago, October 20th, 2020, we would be up 912.72%. Second rank to $NVDA! Nuts right? What about some tickers that are not on the list? Assuming the same, you bought October 20th, 2020, here is what you would be up on various stocks: NASDAQ:MSFT = 140.75% NASDAQ:META = 173.65% NASDAQ:AAPL = 123.16% NASDAQ:NFLX = 135.73% NASDAQ:IRDM = -34.28% NASDAQ:GSAT = 768.78% NYSE:VZ = -28.73% NASDAQ:PLTR = 1858.9% NYSE:LMT = 35.92% NYSE:BA = 29.65% Interesting? Probably! In fact, this actually helps us answer our question more concretely. We can see that tech returns, while admirable, are not really all that ridiculously inflated. I mean 123% return on your investment over 5 years is pretty good, but its not 900%. Thus, we can say that it can't be true that tech fully drives the S&P, at least not entirely. That's all fine and dandy, but what is critical is our next question, what happens if the tech bubble (AKA AI bubble) pops? How will the weight impact the S&P? Question #3: What happens if AI bubble pops? Well, this is the most interesting question. And we can actually begin to answer this question, not so mathematically by simply looking at charts during the dotcom bust. We can see in 1999 at the peak of the bust, SPY lost about 50%: Of we look at, say, NYSE:PWR and NYSE:EME during that time: NYSE:EME lost about 36% NYSE:PWR just over 50% but quickly rebounded while AMEX:SPY continued to tank. So this doesn't bode well for AMEX:SPY being able to offset such a heavy weighing of tech. But let's approach this mathmatically. Since we have the actual weight of the Mag 7. For clarity, the Mag 7 are said to be NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AMZN , NASDAQ:META , NASDAQ:GOOG , $TSLA. If we take the weighing of these 7 companies and calculate the actual dollar amount this weight translates to, it translates to exactly 141.57$ USD, comprising a total weight of 31.46%. What this means is if you were to buy $1,000 worth of SPY, approximately 315$ of your money would be allocated just to those 7 tickers, or 1,000 x 0.315 = 314.6$. Running a simulation in R based on the weight of 31.46%, assuming that all 7 of these tickers were to drop 50%, that would equate to a loss of -15.73% on SPY. That is assuming that other companies did not, in sympathy of the bubble pop, also not come down with $SPY. We know this to obviously be false from experience, even NYSE:PWR tanked at first during the dotcom bust and same with NYSE:EME despite them having absolutely nothing to do with dotcom nonsense. But, in a perfect world, if only the mag7 were impacted, we would see about a -10 to -15% decline in AMEX:SPY on a bubble pop, assuming of course these companies tanked 50%. So now what? So I have answered my questions, I could just leave it there. But perhaps it may be more advantageous to talk about what this actually means for an investor. We can draw some initial speculations, unfortunately we don't have enough data to draw concrete conclusions. The first assessment we can draw is, does it even make sense to invest in AMEX:SPY ? The 5 year return on SPY, if we bought in 2020-10-20, would be 95.5%. Had we invested in NASDAQ:AAPL or any of the other tickers I mentioned above, specifically tech, our return would have been slightly better. It begs the quesiton, what's the point? If AMEX:SPY is so exposed to tech, its actually hindering your returns when you can just invest in the raw tech ticker itself, and diversify more fully in other tickers such as NYSE:PWR and NASDAQ:EXE to offset the drawdawns. Overall, your returns would be better than just investing simply in the ETF SPY. If you look at it more concretely, the R:R may theoretically be worse. If you are a savvy investor and you are up over 100% on your investment, the logical thing to do is to set a profit stop (this is something I do in my investment account). This can shield your returns from bubble pops and other financial hardship while retaining a substantial portion of profit. You can also just chose to take profit at 100% and over and then look for something else too invest in. When you dissect annual returns of various tickers and look at the impact these tickers have on the ETF, ETFs lose their air of "safety" and "solid investments". Because in the end, you are super exposed to a handful of stocks that you would do better to just individually invest in independently. While AMEX:SPY is diversified, being super exposed to the most volatile industries in the market does not necessarily make it a safe investment nor does it make sense from an actual R:R perspective if you were to really consider the risk that the collapse of only 7 companies of the 500 would have on the ETF itself. This isn't advice by any means, just some food for thought. When you dissect the anatomy of the market and its components, you can get further insight into what you are actually getting into when you buy a, quote , "safe and stable ETF" like $SPY. These are my thoughts, opinions and some objective analysis. Hopefully you find this information helpful and use some of these principles in gauging your risk exposure. Thanks for reading! and as always, safe trades!
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by Steversteves
1
USD/JPY – Buy Entry (H1- Channel Breakout Pattern) The USD/JPY Pair, Price has been trading within a Channel Breakout Pattern on the H1 chart, forming consistent higher highs and higher lows. Price action is now testing the upper boundary of the Pattern, signalling a possible breakout. FX:USDJPY ✅Market Context: 1️⃣Strong Upward Structure Inside the Pattern. 2️⃣Buyers are showing strength near Resistance. 3️⃣Breakout above the Trendline indicates Momentum continuation toward higher zones. ✅Trade Plan: Entry: Buy after Confirmed Breakout above the Resistance (H1 candle close above trendline or retest of the breakout). 💰Take Profit (TP): At the Key Zone – a Major Resistance area identified ahead. 🛑Stop Loss (SL): Below the Pattern Structure. ✅Psychological Discipline : 1️⃣Stick to plan – No Revenge Trades. 2️⃣Accept losing trades as Part of the Strategy. 3️⃣Risk only 1–2% of your account balance per trade. 💬 Support the community: If you found this useful, drop a 👍 like and share your thoughts in the comments! ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Forex trading involves high risk. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose and always do your own research.
Long
by AM_AlphaTrading
8
EURUSD Massive Long! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below: The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.1649 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 1.1677 Recommended Stop Loss - 1.1633 About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
2