SMC Trading Basics. Change of Character - CHoCH (GOLD FOREX)
In the today's post, we will discuss one of the most crucial concepts in SMC - Change of Character.
Change of Character relates to market trend analysis.
In order to understand its meaning properly, first, we will discuss how Smart Money traders execute trend analysis.
🔘Smart Money Traders apply price action for the identification of the direction of the market.
They believe that the trend is bullish ,
if the price forms at least 2 bullish impulse with 2 consequent higher highs and a higher low between them.
The market trend is considered to be bearish ,
if the market forms at least 2 bearish impulses with 2 consequent lower lows and a lower high between them.
Here is how the trend analysis looks in practice.
One perceives the price action as the set of impulse and retracement legs.
According to the rules described above, USDCAD is trading in a bullish trend because the pair set 2 higher lows and 2 higher highs.
🔘Of course, trends do not last forever.
A skill of the identification of the market reversal is a key to substantial profits in trading.
Change of Character will help you quite accurately identify a bullish and bearish trend violation.
📉In a bearish trend, the main focus is the level of the last lower high.
While the market is trading below or on that, the trend remains bearish .
However, its bullish violation is a very important bullish signal,
it is called a Change of Character, and it signifies a confirmed violation of a bearish trend.
In a bearish trend, CHoCH is a very powerful bullish pattern.
Take a look, how accurate CHoCH indicated the trend reversal on Gold.
After a massive selloff, a bullish breakout of the level of the last lower high confirmed the initiation of a strong bullish wave.
📈In a bullish trend, the main point of interest is the level of the last higher low. While the price is trading above that or on that, the trend remains bullish.
A bearish violation of the last higher low level signifies the violation of a current bullish trend. It is called a Change of Character, and it is a very accurate bearish pattern.
Take a look at the example on Dollar Index below.
In a bullish trend, bearish violation of the last higher low level
quite accurately predicted a coming bearish reversal.
Change of Character is one of the simplest , yet accurate SMC patterns that you should know.
First, learn to properly execute the price action analysis and identify HH, HL, LL, LH and then CHoCH will be your main tool for the identification of the trend reversal.
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Buy limit 146.60 TiqGPT buy signalAnalyzing the SOL/USDT across multiple timeframes, we observe a consistent upward momentum, particularly evident in the shorter timeframes (1H, 15M, 5M, and 1M). The 1D and 4H charts show a recent recovery from a downward trend, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment or a retracement phase.
1D Chart: The daily chart shows a series of bearish and bullish candles with recent bullish activity suggesting a potential reversal or pullback from previous lows.
4H Chart: This timeframe shows more granularity in the recovery, highlighting a resistance-turned-support level around $142, which has been retested and held as support.
1H Chart: A strong bullish impulse is visible, breaking past previous minor highs, suggesting an increase in buying pressure.
15M Chart: This chart shows a continuation of the bullish momentum with higher highs and higher lows, a classic sign of an uptrend.
5M and 1M Charts: Both these timeframes show detailed price action within the bullish trend, with the 5M chart beginning to form a pullback.
SMC Mechanical Entry Models✅ SMC Checklist:
1. Market Structure
🔹 Identify HTF Trend (H4 or H1): bullish, bearish, or range
🔹 Confirm Break of Structure (BOS) or Change of Character (CHoCH) on M15–M5
🔹 Look for lower highs/lows (downtrend) or higher highs/lows (uptrend)
2. Liquidity Zones
🔹 Look for equal highs/lows (liquidity pools)
🔹 Asian highs/lows — common targets during London/NY session
🔹 Recent internal range liquidity
🔹 Trendline liquidity — fakeouts often occur here
3. Premium & Discount Zones (PD Arrays)
🔹 Use Fibonacci from recent swing high to low
🔹 Look for entries at Discount (Longs) or Premium (Shorts) pricing
🔹 Ideal entries happen between 0.62–0.79 retracement
4. Supply & Demand Zones
🔹 Find fresh OBs (Order Blocks) that caused a break of structure
🔹 Use last bullish candle before strong drop (for short) or last bearish candle before strong rally (for long)
🔹 Confirm zone isn’t mitigated yet
5. Imbalance / Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
🔹 Identify large imbalanced candles (no wick overlap)
🔹 Ideal entries are inside the FVG aligned with direction
🔹 High probability if FVG is within OB or confluence with structure/liquidity
6. Confluences for Entry
🔹 Entry aligns with liquidity sweep or FVG/OB tap
🔹 Volume spike or rejection wick confirms interest
🔹 RSI divergence or exhaustion = bonus confirmation
🔹 Use M1/M5 for entry trigger after setup is formed on M15–H1
7. Entry Trigger
🔹 CHoCH or BOS on lower timeframe (M1-M5)
🔹 Confirmation with engulfing candle, FVG fill, or break/retest
🔹 SL below/above recent swing or OB boundary
8. TP/Exit Zones
🔹 TP1: After BOS/structure shift + partial
🔹 TP2: Next liquidity level (equal high/low or OB)
🔹 TP3: Opposite OB or major FVG
🔹 Adjust SL to breakeven after reaching TP1
9. Session Timing (Important)
🔹 Asian range → look for liquidity setup
🔹 London Open (3PM–6PM PH))→ manipulative move (liquidity grab)
🔹 NY Open (8PM–11PM PH) → continuation or reversal opportunity
🔹 Avoid high-impact news releases unless breakout
🔹 Use Forex Factory / MyFXBook for news calendar
10. Post-Trade Journaling:
🔹Screenshot HTF → LTF Setup (H4 > M15 > M1)
🔹Don’t skip journaling — it’s your #1 improvement tool.
V2. US S&P Zones - PMI Manuf, USINTR, Inflation, DXY & QEV2. US S&P Zones - PMI Manuf, USINTR, Inflation, DXY & QE
US S&P Zone Analysis -- Correlation with
1. Leading Economic Indicators (PMI Manufacturing Index, PMI Services Index, Building Permits)
2. US Interest Rates (MEAN 1.97 from Jan 2003)
3. US Inflation Rate YoY
4. Dollar Index (DXY)
5. Quantitative Easing Episodes
WHY CHANGE IN APPROACH?
As per Ammar Bhai, Red and other Zones for US and developed markets shall not follow only Interest Rates after 2000. Traditional single impact of Interest Rate is not Enough.
NOTE ABOUT INFLATION ABOVE 5%
It was also noticed that if inflation was about 5% that coincided with Red and Yellow zone and it must be avoided for stock trading.
NEW APPROACH
NEW GREEN ZONE
1. PMI Manuf Index is RISING or ABOVE 50
2. Interest Rates are FALLING or LEVELED or BELOW MEAN (Expansionary Policy in Effect)
3. Inflation is FALLING or AROUND TARGET
4. DXY is FALLING or SIDEWAYS
5. Stock Market RISING
NEW APPROACH for RED ZONE
1. PMI Manuf Index is FALLING or BELOW 50
2. Interest Rates are RISING or LEVELED or ABOVE MEAN (Contractionary Policy in Effect)
3. Inflation is RISING or SIDEWAYS. (Also Check if Inflation rate is above 5%)
4. DXY is RISING
5. Stock Market FALLING or SIDEWAYS
NEW YELLOW ZONE
1. PMI Manuf Index is RISING or ABOVE 50
2. Interest Rates are RISING or LEVELED
3. Inflation is RISING or SIDEWAYS (Also Check if Inflation rate is above 5%)
4. DXY is RISING or SIDEWAYS
5. Stock Market RISING or SIDEWAYS
NEW ORANGE ZONE
1. PMI Manuf Index is SIDEWAYS or BELOW 50
2. Interest Rates are FALLING or LEVELED or BELOW MEAN (Expansionary Policy in Effect)
3. Inflation is FALLING or SIDEWAYS (Also Check if Inflation rate is above 5%)
4. DXY is FALLING or SIDEWAYS
5. Stock Market RISING or SIDEWAYS
Historically whenever Interest Rates are dropping, US market goes down for some months:
US somehow try to control Inflation before bringing the interest rates down.
When Inflation is under control and Growth has not gone down much, then they decrease the interest rates
Because in past whenever Interest rates were decreased, growth also fell for some months and then improved.
Then FED does QE, which bring surplus cash in the market, Which drops Dollar rate, that helps the Stock Market grow.
BTC - Falling Correction = Continuation?BTC has been playing by the rules lately!
Every time Bitcoin forms a falling correction, it turns out to be a bullish continuation pattern — and history might be repeating itself 👀
As shown on the chart:
Previous falling channels (flag/wedge structures) have consistently led to strong bullish impulses.
The current correction also appears to be a falling channel, hinting at another potential bullish leg soon.
As long as the structure holds and no major support is broken, the next target could be a new all-time high.
Let’s see if BTC continues to respect this textbook behavior.
📌 Remember: Falling corrections in an uptrend = healthy continuation!
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
US100 BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
US100 SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 22,518.7
Target Level: 21,870.2
Stop Loss: 22,949.8
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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EUR/AUD BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are going short on the EUR/AUD with the target of 1.772 level, because the pair is overbought and will soon hit the resistance line above. We deduced the overbought condition from the price being near to the upper BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is green and gives us a counter-signal.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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EUR/CAD BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the EUR/CAD pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 1.588 level.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Middle East peace/war = Bitcoin’s Explosive Price CoilDo you know why every time tensions rise in the Middle East, Bitcoin springs upward like a compressed coil?
This market reaction isn’t just a coincidence it’s the result of a mix of psychological and economic factors we’ll explore today.
Get ready to understand how these crises can create golden opportunities for the world’s favorite digital currency.
Hello✌
Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material.
🎯 Analytical Insight on Bitcoin:
Price is approaching a significant support level that has held strong historically. A potential rebound from this zone could lead to at least a 7% upside move 📈, with the primary target set around $115,000—near a key descending trendline on the daily chart. Watching this level closely for confirmation 🔍.
Now , let's dive into the educational section,
Market Psychology: When War Plays with Fear and Greed 🧠
Middle East crises act like a spring: when released, they trigger intense fear in the market. Many traders react emotionally and start selling their holdings. The key point: this fear often flips into greed.
When Bitcoin’s price drops due to war fears, savvy traders seize the opportunity and enter the market. This cycle of fear and greed causes Bitcoin’s price to surge faster than usual just like a compressed spring suddenly releasing.
If you understand these market emotions and trade without bias, you can maximize gains from such volatility.
Key TradingView Tools for Bitcoin Analysis 📊
When the Middle East conflict heats up, market volatility spikes, affecting Bitcoin as a high-risk asset.
Using essential indicators like RSI , Fibonacci retracements , and volume on TradingView helps you pinpoint precise entry and exit points and better understand market reactions.
Practical Tips for Better Tool Usage ⚙️
To get the most out of TradingView:
Activate several indicators simultaneously and compare price movements with volume.
Draw Fibonacci retracements on previous trends to find key support and resistance levels.
Check RSI to see if Bitcoin is overbought or oversold.
Monitor trading volume to confirm momentum shifts.
This approach turns your analysis from guesswork into a logical, actionable strategy.
How Middle East War Drives Bitcoin Growth: Final Analysis 🚀
As tensions escalate, investors seek safe-haven assets, and Bitcoin, known as digital gold, attracts massive attention. Also, banking restrictions and sanctions push liquidity toward cryptocurrencies.
These condition s, combined with market psychology and the analytical tools we covered, make Bitcoin behave like a compressed spring that suddenly leaps upward, driving significant growth. Traders aware of these trends and skilled in using indicators and sentiment can find better profit opportunities.
Recommendations 📌
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East act as a powerful trigger for Bitcoin volatility. Understanding market psychology, smart use of TradingView tools, and having a solid risk management strategy are key to success in such times. I recommend keeping an eye not just on technical analysis but also on market sentiment and political news to make the best timely decisions.
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📜 Please remember to do your own research before making any investment decisions. Also, don’t forget to check the disclaimer at the bottom of each post for more details.
Falling Wedge: The Bullish Pattern Most Traders Miss Falling Wedge: The Bullish Pattern Most Traders Miss
A falling wedge is a bullish pattern that forms when price action contracts between two downward-sloping lines. Both highs and lows are getting lower, but the lower trendline declines more slowly. This shows that sellers are losing momentum.
There are two types of falling wedges:
🟢In an uptrend, it acts as a continuation pattern. The price pauses and consolidates before breaking out upward again.
🔴In a downtrend, it acts as a reversal pattern, often signaling a bottom before a trend change.
Both versions look similar on the chart — a narrowing wedge sloping down. The breakout usually happens to the upside. To trade it 👇
1️⃣Wait for a confirmed breakout above the upper resistance line.
2️⃣Look for strong volume on the breakout to confirm the move.
3️⃣You can enter on the breakout or wait for a retest of the trendline.
4️⃣Place your stop below the recent low.
5️⃣Set a target based on the height of the wedge.
Falling wedges work best in strong trends and become more reliable the longer they form ✍️
#FAQ
GBP_JPY SWING SHORT|
✅GBP_JPY is going up now
But a strong resistance level is ahead around 199.828
Thus I am expecting a pullback
And a move down towards the target of 197.825
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Weekly Volatility SnapshotGood Morning --
I hope everyone had a good week of trading ranges -- although short, we saw some VOLATILITY .
Here we will step back with the year-to-date TVC:VIX in the background as we look towards a fresh week trading within the broader market ranges.
Let us begin --
Last week the S&P500 -- with the SP:SPX gapped up opening into strength of a short week at $6,007.46 and wicking up to $6,050.83 only to sell off during U.S. wartime engagement threats within the news cycle, closing the weeks range at $5,984.57. This provided a move of $96.96 and is most comparative to what IV (16.18%) stated entering last week -- that was predicting a range of +/- $101.24.
Now, looking towards this week -- IV (16.34%) is nearly unchanged as HV10 (9.75%) is showing a 'strength of IV' lowering at only 60% currently. IV within the yearly spectrum sits with an IVp of 74% -- fairly expensive as this can show the majority of money is spending up to protect downside uncertainties.
Understandable of course.
Our long-term trending volatility of HV63 (30.25%) is showing a 'strength of IV' at 185% which is correlating to an implied move of +/- $188.98 for the week. This is an advantage if reached of $86.90 over stated IV. A massive premium capture potential.
With the MACRO news cycle pointing EXTREMELY NEGATIVE, I will be watching for volatility expansion. I believe futures will open up gapping into quarterly marks -- this is just my humble opinion of course.
I see the opposite of last week happening, where we gap down and run up into the week. I don't hold a swing position, just an observation that psychologically retail will flip bearish on wartime news with a massive gap down, only to get trapped as broader markets expand upwards into the week.
That's all for now. Everyone have a good week trading ranges, and I will see you Saturday to review! As always, know you ABCs and stay hedged for whatever your bias may be!
CHEERS
Complete Analysis of DOGE/USDT 4hComplete Analysis of DOGE/USDT 4h
The chart suggests a transition phase toward an uptrend.
Moving averages are beginning to slope upward, indicating a potential trend reversal. The MACD shows weakening selling pressure and is approaching a bullish crossover, which often precedes upward price movement.
Entry zones: Between 0.14452 and 0.15185 — favorable areas for position accumulation.
Price targets:
First target: 0.20455 (a key resistance zone).
Second target: 0.22942, where stronger selling pressure may emerge.
Risk management: A suggested stop-loss at 0.13561 to protect capital if the anticipated move fails.
If the price breaks and consolidates above 0.17, the market could gain momentum to reach the projected targets. Monitor volume during breakout candles to confirm the presence of buying flow.
FARTCOIN Swing Long — Reclaimed Support, Bids at Bullish OBSwing Long Setup:
Entries: Limit orders in $0.91–$0.93 (12h OB zone, 1D support)
Stops: 4h close below $0.86–$0.87 (support invalidation)
Targets: $1.16 (first TP), $1.43 (secondary target)
🔔 Triggers & Confirmations:
Only stay in trade if 1D/12h support holds on 4h closes
Re-enter on reclaim if stopped out and structure recovers
🚨 Risk Warning:
Breakdown of reclaimed S/R flips setup invalid — exit on signal
Bullish Divergence on Daily tf.ENGROH
Closed at 182.38 (27-06-2025)
Bullish Divergence on Daily tf.
Immediate Resistance is around
193 - 194.
Crossing it with Good Volumes may result
in upward price movement towards 200+
However, if 160 is broken this time,
we may witness further selling pressure
towards 145 - 150.
AUDNZD The Target Is DOWN! SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on AUDNZD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 1.0803 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 1.0792
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSD Will Collapse! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for EURUSD is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.1716
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 1.1644
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AUDUSD Set To Fall! SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the AUDUSD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 0.6555
Bias - Bearish
Safe Stop Loss - 0.6583
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 0.6497
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK