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GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, After successfully sharing our 1H chart target updates earlier this week, here’s an update on our our 4H chart idea shared on Sunday. This setup has also played out perfectly: We started the week with 3655 being hit. That was followed by the EMA5 cross and lock, which opened the target for 3696, also hit perfectly to complete the target. Currently, we’re seeing range play between 3655 and 3696. The next move will depend on whether we get another EMA5 cross and lock above or below these two Goldturns, which will guide us toward the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges. BULLISH TARGET 3655 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3655 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 3696 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3696 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3738 BEARISH TARGETS 3615 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3615 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3583 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3583 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3545 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3545 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3509 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3509 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 3458 3409 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3409 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE 3360 3320 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
1
BTC Long, but correction first. TL;DR BTC setup looks bullish — reclaimed support, VWAP and trendline are holding, and I expect a retest of the yellow box. However, BTC Dominance is showing strength, which could spell trouble for alts if it pushes above the red box. So the play is: long BTC, be cautious on alt exposure. ///////////////////////////// I think this is setting up as a high-probability long. In short: we saw support flip into resistance, then resistance flip back into support. That’s classic manipulation — whales pushed the narrative to short BTC, only to reclaim the level and turn it back into support. I’m expecting price to come back and retest that zone (yellow box). On top of that, the VWAP has been respected all through the correction, and the trendline is holding. Both point to strength, not weakness — these are bullish signals, not bearish. I’ve marked out two stop-loss levels: SL1 (aggressive) – tighter risk but more chance of being wicked out. SL2 (conservative) – safer placement if you want to ride the setup with less noise. On the second chart (BTC Dominance): We’re seeing divergence + a breakout above the downtrend line. That could be a headwind for alts — if BTC dominance continues higher, altcoins are likely to bleed. If BTC.D breaks above the red box, that’s a clear risk signal for alts.
Long
by lojjkkjvvv
Netflix Has Been SnoozingNetflix has done little for months, but some traders may think the streaming giant is ready to wake up. The first pattern on today’s chart is the $1,193 level. It was a low in mid-August where NFLX is potentially trying to find new support. Second, that level potentially represents an incrementally higher low compared with troughs in May and early August. (See the white arrows.) Those higher lows are also occurring along the rising 100-day simple moving average, which may be consistent with a long-term uptrend. Next, Bollinger Band Width recently narrowed to its tightest reading since August 2021. Could that price compression give way to expansion? Stochastics are additionally trying to rise after nearing an oversold condition. Finally, NFLX is an active underlier in the options market. (It’s averaged more than 90,000 contracts per session in the last month, according to TradeStation data.) That could help traders take positions with calls and puts. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See www.TradeStation.com . Visit www.TradeStation.com for full details on the costs and fees associated with options. Margin trading involves risks, and it is important that you fully understand those risks before trading on margin. The Margin Disclosure Statement outlines many of those risks, including that you can lose more funds than you deposit in your margin account; your brokerage firm can force the sale of securities in your account; your brokerage firm can sell your securities without contacting you; and you are not entitled to an extension of time on a margin call. Review the Margin Disclosure Statement at www.TradeStation.com . TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by TradeStation
Money, Time and Emotions – The Trio before Balance in Trading Gurus love to tell traders: “You just need to find your balance.” But to be honest, balance doesn’t exist when Gold just ripped through your stop loss for the second time today, and you do a sneak charts check on your phone while pretending to work. For sure, you are not calm or zen. At least in the first 2 years... more like frustrated, scattered, and asking yourself if this whole thing is even worth it. But you’re not broken. Just carrying the wrong kind of weight, and it usually shows up in three ways combined. ⏳ The Time Pressure Trading doesn’t fail because you cannot read the charts when you put a bit of an effort into it. But your life is already so full. Work, family, bills, endless noise, and you’re trying to squeeze trading into the cracks for the sake of a better financial outcome. So you start chasing candles and force trades into the tiny windows you’ve got. Plus stare at the screen longer, hoping focus & hidden entries will magically appear. But Gold does not bend to your schedule. And that mismatch wrecks your decisions. 🔑Shift: Don’t out-stare the chart. Get rid of some stress levels by: Set alerts near the key reaction zones. Create focus slots. Let price knock on your door by doing homework in advance. 💰 The Money Illusion Every trader has tried it: opening a tiny 200 USD account and hoping it’ll explode into freedom. But pressure makes that account heavier than it really is. Instead of freedom, you get fear. So your clarity goes away. And suddenly every single candle feels like it’s deciding your future. So in the end, that little account gets blown several times. 🔑Shift: Lower the stakes. Trade smaller than you think you should. ALWAYS. Track everything, especially your state of mind, keep a journal, and do not be ashamed to put down some thoughts. The game isn’t about miracles, but making repetition boringly consistent like gym reps. 🐺 The Lone Wolf Spiral The hardest part isn’t the losses but the silence that surrounds when you choose trading. When you do it alone, every mistake feels like proof that you are bad at this in the beginning. Every win feels like dumb luck, or it blinds you further more. There’s no feedback loop, no outside voice to ground you. And that silence eats at you until you are second-guessing everything you do. 🔑Shift: Find real traders to connect with. Not 15 channels and 10 Discords, they will eat your time alive. Not fake hype. Actual humans who talk about process, not just profits. The right community cuts through the spiral faster than any indicator ever will. One group that gives you a direction and you can learn from, or gives you the secrets to the ropes ‘til you catch them. 🧭 And The Good News Is... Stress doesn’t mean you’re doomed. It just means the game is heavy in the wrong places: your time, your money, your isolation. And all three are fixable in time with patience and the right support. Balance isn’t about meditating after a loss, even though that can be good too:) Start building a structure in your daily trading schedule bit by bit. And by putting systems around your weak spots. About letting caring trading mentors who guide you well, in your life, instead of doing all of the thinking by yourself. If this article helped you today and brought you more clarity: Drop a 🚀 and follow us✅ for more trading ideas and trading psychology. Thank you.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by GoldMindsFX
4
KSE 100 Index Technical Analysis for 17-09-2025KSE 100 Index Technical Analysis 17-09-2025 The index is moving upwards after a pullback from its all-time high of 157,820. Today's price action indicates potential support at 155,750. Key Levels - *Immediate Support*: 155,750 - *Retest Zone*: 152,450 - 150,450 (identified several days ago) Scenario - *Support Hold*: Potential upward move - *Break Below Support*: Expected to reach retest zone (152,450 - 150,450) for potential A-B-C correction completion Advice - *Caution*: Recommended until further behavior is observed at the immediate support level. This analysis highlights potential scenarios based on the index's behavior at key support levels.
PSX:KSE100
by THE-CHART-ALCHEMIST
Zinc & Copper Correlation is very healthyZinc and copper markets are closely related because both metals are used heavily in construction, manufacturing, and electrical applications, so demand often rises and falls together with industrial activity. They’re also frequently mined from the same deposits, meaning supply-side disruptions can affect both. As a result, prices for zinc and copper tend to show a high degree of correlation, moving in similar cycles tied to global economic growth and infrastructure. Comparing the Charts (Zinc on the left on a Monhtly TF), we see that Zinc has a lot of room left to the upside. Because it's goal is to go back to balance, which is the Centerline. And because of the close correlation, I think the Chart of Copper HG1! is still OK. So, in Copper, the Centerline target is still in play.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
Rate Cuts, Liquidity, and BTC: Why 120K Is the Danger ZoneYesterday , while everyone was screaming about a Bitcoin dump, we caught the breakout of that resistance I showed you. Today, I want to talk about the upcoming rate cut news , what could happen after it, and what we should do with our open positions. Now personally, I’m still holding the breakout position we entered a week ago . I didn’t secure any profits, and honestly—I didn’t even want to. Because if the Fed cuts rates, we could kick off the next leg of this uptrend. But keep this in mind: opening fresh positions around 120K IS NOT EASY AT ALL. Why? Because there’s massive liquidity up there, huge volatility, and the chances of getting stopped out are very high. That’s exactly why I’d rather hold my position from earlier than be forced to open new ones in that zone. 👉 Let’s look at yesterday’s daily candle: it closed super bullish. This shows the market is leaning positive on the idea of a rate cut. But is this candle just front-running the news? Hard to say. We can’t exactly go ask every trader if they bought because of the Fed. So, better not overthink it. I personally expect a short-term dip after the news drops. But more important than the cut itself are Powell’s words. If he signals more cuts are coming, markets could explode higher. If he says “not anytime soon,” we might get a pullback. ⚠️ My advice: If you don’t already have a position, stay on the sidelines for a few hours. Any stop loss you put now has a big chance of getting hit. But if, like me, you’re already in from the earlier triggers, just hold. It’s worth it. For me, I’m also long on GBP/USD, and I didn’t secure profits there either—I’m waiting to see how it reacts. 👉 Quick look at BTC.D: dominance is rising with Bitcoin, which means it’s smarter to keep focus on BTC rather than altcoins. When dominance turns bearish again, that’s when we’ll shift back to alts. This is why for the past few days I’ve been saying: stick with Bitcoin. Liquidity is flowing into it. Ethereum? It gave back almost 70% of its recent move. LONG STORY SHORT: don’t do anything stupid here. The best play, if you don’t have an open position, is to stay patient. Don’t FOMO. Remember: the most important thing is not Bitcoin’s price itself. It’s stop-loss size, liquidity zones, and momentum. here in Skeptic Lab, that’s exactly what we dig into. I’ll try to post another update after the Fed news drops. Until then, stay safe. Peace ✌️
by SkepticLab
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG: Well, I don't think that could have gone any better with the KOG Report plan published on Sunday. We hit the final red box, exhausted and extended a bit but managed to get the move down from there that we had planned. In Camelot, we gave the exact level 3703 as the potential level and one that can not break if they want to retrace, which worked well. With FOMC tomorrow, we can expect a retest of that high and if failed in the Asian session potential for a move back down into the 3660-65 region initially. That's the level we want, so lets see if we get it! Best entry came from the red box which gave a capture twice and moved well. This should be protected and managed. We'll be back tomorrow for the KOG Report FOMC so stay tuned and please take some time to hit the boost button on the Tradingview ideas. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
16
EUR/USD: Bullish Breakout to 1.20 Amid Fed Rate Cut Hype EUR/USD: Bullish Breakout to 1.20 Amid Fed Rate Cut Hype and #Fed Trends Buzz? 1.1920 Target in Sight? EUR/USD is trading at 1.1878 today, up 0.3% amid surging to a fresh four-year high as markets brace for the Fed's interest rate decision later, with expectations of a 50bps cut to 4.00-4.25% fueling dollar weakness. This comes as South Africa's Treasury eyes new Eurobonds post-$2B redemption, potentially bolstering Euro demand amid broader EM inflows. Just as #Fed racks up 12K mentions on X with rate cut speculation exploding, and #business trends highlight global bond stability (e.g., SA's move), EUR/USD's rally ties into ECB hawkishness versus Fed easing—positioning it as a high-conviction pair for September volatility. But with RSI overbought, is EUR/USD poised for a breakout to 1.20, or will a hawkish Fed surprise trigger a pullback? Let's break down the fundamentals, SWOT, charts, and setups for September 17, 2025. Fundamental Analysis EUR/USD's strength stems from diverging monetary policies, with the ECB holding rates steady at 3.50% while Fed cut bets hit 65% for 50bps today, pressuring the dollar index to 98.50 lows. Analysts forecast a potential climb to 1.1920 if cuts confirm, with 2025 averages eyed at 1.15 amid Eurozone recovery data like 0.3% Q2 GDP growth. With #Fed trends going viral on X, the pair's sensitivity to dot plot signals undervalues its upside if projections show three more cuts by year-end; however, sticky US inflation (core PCE at 2.6%) could cap gains if the Fed pauses. - **Positive:** - Fed easing expectations weaken USD, amplified by #Fed hype and SA Eurobond plans signaling global Euro appetite. - Eurozone resilience with PMI at 51.2 supports hawkish ECB, projecting 1.5% 2025 GDP growth versus US slowdown risks. - Broader trends in #business (e.g., EM bond inflows) position EUR/USD for 2%+ monthly gains if cuts deliver. - **Negative:** - Overbought conditions risk correction to 1.1762 if Fed signals fewer cuts, clashing with #Fed optimism. - Geopolitical tensions and US election uncertainty could strengthen USD as safe-haven if volatility spikes. SWOT Analysis **Strengths:** Policy divergence favors Euro with ECB's steady rates versus Fed cuts, amplified by #Fed relevance in weakening USD sentiment. **Weaknesses:** High sensitivity to US data; overbought momentum vulnerable in a #business-shifting market post-Fed. **Opportunities:** SA Eurobond tap boosts Euro liquidity; #Fed cut confirmation could narrow discount, with undervalued upside at current levels amid 1.5% projected 2025 appreciation. **Threats:** Hawkish Fed pivot eroding gains; competition from yen or pound if global easing synchronizes amid viral #Fed discussions. Technical Analysis On the daily chart, EUR/USD shows a bullish ascending channel breakout to four-year highs at 1.1878, with volume surging on Fed anticipation and mirroring #Fed volatility. The weekly confirms an inverse head-and-shoulders from summer lows, now extending higher. Current price: 1.1878, with VWAP at 1.1850 as intraday pivot. Key indicators: - **RSI (14-day):** At 72, overbought but holding bullish—potential bounce signal amid #Fed surge. 📈 - **MACD:** Positive histogram expanding, crossover intact for upside momentum. - **Moving Averages:** Price above 21-day EMA (1.1750) and 50-day SMA (1.1650), golden cross supporting bull trend. Support/Resistance: Key support at 1.1810 (recent low), resistance at 1.1920 (Fib target) and 1.2000 (psychological). Patterns/Momentum: Channel extension targets 1.1920; fueled by #Fed momentum. 🟢 Bullish signals: Higher highs on volume. 🔴 Bearish risks: RSI divergence could prompt drop to 1.1690. Scenarios and Risk Management - **Bullish Scenario:** Break above 1.1920 on dovish Fed targets 1.2000; go long on pullbacks to 1.1810, especially if #Fed goes mainstream with cuts. - **Bearish Scenario:** Drop below 1.1810 eyes 1.1762; watch for death cross amid #Fed fade if hikes signal. - **Neutral/Goldilocks:** Range-bound 1.1810–1.1920 if dot plot mixed and #Fed cools. Risk Tips: Use stops at 1.1790. Risk 1-2% per trade. Diversify to avoid correlation traps with #Fed-linked pairs like USD/JPY. Conclusion/Outlook Overall, a bullish bias if EUR/USD holds 1.1810, supercharged by today's #Fed and #business trends, with 1%+ upside to 1.20 on rate cut confirmation. But watch the Fed decision for confirmation—this fits September's policy divergence theme, but SA Eurobonds add supportive Euro tailwinds. What’s your take? Bullish on EUR/USD amid #Fed cuts or hedging the dip? Share in the comments!
by DCAChampion
XAUUSD: Will This Correction Fuel the Next All-Time High?After a powerful breakout and a new All-Time High, the market often needs to take a breath. For Gold, this breathing room comes in the form of a 4-hour correction. This isn't a sign of weakness, but an opportunity. This analysis maps out three high-probability zones where this correction could end, providing a potential entry to join the bulls for the next major leg up. After Gold broke out of the global range, which I showed in the analysis " The Most Accurate Gold Forecast on the Market ", and continued its uptrend to form a new ATH, the asset is showing the beginning of a possible correction on the 4H structure. If the correction continues, I will be considering a pro-trend long from a manipulation in the form of a demand zone in conjunction with one of the Fibonacci retracement levels, or from the 4H Break of Structure (BOS 4H) level . The first long scenario involves a reversal reaction from the 61.8% Fib level , which would simultaneously rebalance a daily FVG . If this level is broken, the second scenario will be activated, which involves a deeper correction with a reversal reaction from the 78.6% Fib level . If the final local retracement level is broken, a reversal will still be possible upon a liquidity sweep of the BOS 4H level . This will be the third long scenario , confirmation of which would be a sharp return of the price above the BOS 4H level and the beginning of a bullish order flow on a lower timeframe. The target for a potential long, upon confirmation of a setup from one of these scenarios, will be the formation of a new ATH . The invalidation of the long scenarios will be the price finding acceptance below the 4H Break of Structure level, as the correction would then likely shift to a higher timeframe. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The principles and conditions for forming the manipulation zones I show in this trade idea are detailed in my educational publication, which was chosen by TradingView for the "Editor's Picks" category and received a huge amount of positive feedback from this insightful trading community. To better understand the logic I've used here and the general principles of price movement in most markets from the perspective of institutional capital, I highly recommend checking out this guide if you haven't already. 👇 P.S. This is not a prediction of the exact price direction. It is a description of high-probability setups that become valid only if specific conditions are met when the price reaches the marked POI. If the conditions are not met, the setups are invalid. No setup has a 100% success rate, so if you decide to use this trade idea, always apply a stop-loss and proper risk management. Trade smart. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ If you found this analysis helpful, support it with a Boost! 🚀 Have a question or your own view on this idea? Share it in the comments. 💬 ► Follow me on TradingView for timely updates on THIS idea (entry, targets & live trade management) and not to miss my next detailed breakdown. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by TheWhaleSM
14
DOW JONES (US30): Your Plan to Trade FOMC Today US30 keeps coiling on a recently broken daily key resistance that turned into a support after a breakout. To buy the market with confirmation after today's rate decision, concentrate your attention on a double bottom pattern on a 4H time frame. A bullish breakout of its neckline and a 4H candle close above 46850 will provide a reliable signal. A bullish continuation will be expected to a current structure high then - 46087. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:US30Long
by VasilyTrader
1
Gold: Buying the Dip? A Plan for the Pullback to the Daily OBAfter breaking out of its local range and establishing a new ATH, Gold has begun a correction and is approaching support in the form of a daily order block . I will be looking for a long position, with the target of creating another ATH, upon the mitigation of this order block in conjunction with a reversal reaction from one of three Fibonacci retracement levels: the 50%, 61.8%, or 78.6% level . A break of the 78.6% level by the price will invalidate the long scenarios and, with a high probability, will mean the correction is transitioning to the higher, weekly structure. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The principles and conditions for forming the manipulation zones I show in this trade idea are detailed in my educational publication, which was chosen by TradingView for the "Editor's Picks" category and received a huge amount of positive feedback from this insightful trading community. To better understand the logic I've used here and the general principles of price movement in most markets from the perspective of institutional capital, I highly recommend checking out this guide if you haven't already. 👇 P.S. This is not a prediction of the exact price direction. It is a description of high-probability setups that become valid only if specific conditions are met when the price reaches the marked POI. If the conditions are not met, the setups are invalid. No setup has a 100% success rate, so if you decide to use this trade idea, always apply a stop-loss and proper risk management. Trade smart. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ If you found this analysis helpful, support it with a Boost! 🚀 Have a question or your own view on this idea? Share it in the comments. 💬 ► Follow me on TradingView for timely updates on THIS idea (entry, targets & live trade management) and not to miss my next detailed breakdown. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by TheWhaleSM
26
Naspers: Tencent AI Proxy Amid #AI and South Africa BondsNaspers: Undervalued Tencent AI Proxy Amid #AI and South Africa Bond Stability Trends? $80 Target in Sight? Naspers (NPSNY) ADRs are trading at $67.69 today, up 0.5% amid positive South African market sentiment following the Treasury's smooth $2 billion Eurobond redemption and hints at new issuances to replenish reserves. This fiscal resilience has spurred foreign inflows into SA bonds, with R24.8 billion net buys recently, boosting local equities like Naspers—which has rallied 34% YTD on Tencent's AI-driven rebound. As #AI trends explode with 17K mentions on X (fueled by AI video generators and drug discovery hype), and #technology buzz hits 46K amid global chip and ad innovations, Naspers' indirect 24% stake in Tencent (via Prosus) positions it as an undervalued gateway to Chinese AI growth in gaming and cloud. But with a forward P/E of 15x, is NPSNY the discounted multi-bagger ready for a push to $80, or will China risks weigh it down? Let's dissect the fundamentals, SWOT, technicals, and setups for September 17, 2025. Fundamental Analysis Naspers' value is deeply tied to its Prosus subsidiary, which holds a 24.3% stake in Tencent—valued at ~$120B against Naspers' $52B market cap, implying a 50%+ discount on sum-of-parts analysis. FY2025 results showed 21% Ecommerce revenue growth to $7B and an 18x EBIT improvement, with analysts forecasting 2025 EPS of $4.50 (up 25% YoY) amid Tencent's AI tools launch. With #AI going viral, Naspers' exposure to Tencent's programming AI and cloud positions it perfectly, undervalued at 18% below fair value per DCF amid SA's bond stability signaling economic strength. However, regulatory risks in China loom if crackdowns intensify. - **Positive:** - Tencent stake undervalues Naspers by 50%+; $12.8B buybacks enhance shareholder value amid #technology hype and AI investments. - SA Eurobond redemption boosts foreign inflows (R41.3B YTD), supporting JSE rally and Naspers' 135% 3-year returns. - Broader #AI trends (e.g., Tencent's AI tool launch) project 20%+ CAGR for holdings. - **Negative:** - China exposure risks from geopolitics, clashing with #AI optimism if Tencent growth slows. - Upcoming 5-for-1 split (Oct 6) could add volatility if retail hype fades post-event. SWOT Analysis **Strengths:** Massive discount to Tencent holdings (50%+), amplified by #AI relevance in gaming/cloud; strong Ecommerce profitability with 18x EBIT jump. **Weaknesses:** Heavy reliance on China assets (80%+ value); cyclical Ecommerce exposure in a #technology-shifting market. **Opportunities:** SA bond stability attracts inflows, unlocking value; #AI boom via Tencent could narrow discount to 30%, undervalued at 15x P/E amid 25% EPS growth. **Threats:** Regulatory changes in China eroding Tencent value; intense competition from global tech amid viral #AI discussions on X. Technical Analysis On the daily chart, NPSNY is in a strong uptrend, forming a bull flag after breaking $65 resistance, with volume spiking on SA bond news and mirroring #AI volatility surges. The weekly confirms higher highs from 2023 lows, now accelerating. Current price: $67.69, with VWAP at $67 as intraday pivot. Key indicators: - **RSI (14-day):** At 65, bullish territory—room for upside amid #technology surges. 📈 - **MACD:** Positive crossover with expanding histogram, indicating momentum build. ⚠️ - **Moving Averages:** Price above 21-day EMA ($64) and 50-day SMA ($62), golden cross intact. Support/Resistance: Key support at $65 (recent breakout), resistance at $70 (psychological) and $80 (analyst target). Patterns/Momentum: Flag breakout targets $75; fueled by #AI momentum. 🟢 Bullish signals: Volume on inflows. 🔴 Bearish risks: Overextension if China news hits. Scenarios and Risk Management - **Bullish Scenario:** Break above $70 on Tencent AI updates or SA inflows targets $75 short-term, then $80 by year-end; buy pullbacks to $65, especially if #AI goes mainstream. - **Bearish Scenario:** Drop below $65 eyes $60 (200-day EMA); watch for regulatory cross amid #technology fade. - **Neutral/Goldilocks:** Range-bound $65–$70 if data mixed and #AI cools. Risk Tips: Use stops at $64. Risk 1-2% per trade. Diversify to avoid correlation traps with #AI-linked assets like TCEHY. Conclusion/Outlook Overall, a bullish bias if NPSNY holds $65, supercharged by today's #AI and #technology trends plus SA's Eurobond stability, affirming its undervalued status with 18%+ upside on Tencent AI plays. But watch Q3 earnings and China policy for confirmation—this fits September's emerging market rotation amid viral tech hype. What’s your take? Bullish on Naspers amid #AI Tencent trends? Share in the comments!
OTC:NPSNYLong
by DCAChampion