All Signs Point to Bitcoin Hitting a New ATH in the Next 2 MonthThe entire market is currently in fear following the recent crypto correction.
But if we take a step back and look at the bigger picture, it’s clear that Bitcoin is still in an uptrend — consistently forming higher highs and higher lows on the macro scale.
What we’ve just seen is a typical 30% pullback within the cycle, which is completely normal in crypto. Throughout this cycle, we’ve already witnessed several 20–30% corrections.
According to the majority of my systems, the cycle is still ongoing, and I don’t expect it to end before fall 2025.
On the chart, I highlighted one particularly interesting metric: Global Liquidity Index.
This indicator has been rising for the past two months, and historically, it has shown strong correlation with market performance — although markets tend to react with a slight delay.
The logic is simple:
more liquidity → money flows into markets → markets rise.
From a macro-fundamental perspective, this is a positive signal suggesting that the correction may be coming to an end — and that a new upward phase could be starting soon.
📈 In my opinion, we could revisit previous ATHs and set new ones in the near future.
Based on current data, a potential recovery may begin as early as April.
This is not financial advice — just sharing my personal view.
As for me, I’m currently out of the market, having closed all positions from my algorithmic systems at around $97,500 BTC.
Now simply waiting for fresh signals.
Contains image
$F: Ford Motor Company – Driving Profits or Stalling Out?(1/9)
Good afternoon, everyone! ☀️ NYSE:F : Ford Motor Company – Driving Profits or Stalling Out?
With F at $10.18, is this auto giant revving up with EVs or sputtering in the market? Let’s shift gears and find out! 🔍
(2/9) – PRICE PERFORMANCE 📊
• Current Price: $ 10.18 as of Mar 18, 2025 💰
• Recent Move: Slight uptick in March, per data 📏
• Sector Trend: Auto sector mixed, EV demand growing 🌟
It’s a road with twists—let’s see where it leads! ⚙️
(3/9) – MARKET POSITION 📈
• Market Cap: Approx $45B (4.4B shares) 🏆
• Operations: Global auto manufacturer, focusing on EVs ⏰
• Trend: EV push with F-150 Lightning, per data 🎯
Firm in its lane, with electric acceleration! 🚗
(4/9) – KEY DEVELOPMENTS 🔑
• Q1 2025 Earnings: Expected soon, EV sales in focus 🌍
• EV Sales: F-150 Lightning gaining traction, per data 📋
• Market Reaction: Stock reflects cautious optimism 💡
Shifting to electric, eyes on the horizon! ⚡
(5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS ⚡
• Economic Slowdown: Impact on auto sales 📉
• Competition: Tesla, GM, VW in EV race ❄️
• Supply Chain: Geopolitical tensions affecting parts 🛑
It’s a competitive race—buckle up! 🚦
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS 💪
• Brand Power: Iconic auto brand 🥇
• EV Strategy: F-150 Lightning leading the charge 📊
• Undervalued: Low P/E ratio, strong cash flow 🔧
Got the engine to roar! 🏁
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES ⚖️
• Weaknesses: Traditional auto sales vulnerable to economic shifts 📉
• Opportunities: Growing EV market, new models 📈
Can it charge ahead or run out of juice? 🤔
(8/9) – POLL TIME! 📢
F at $10.18—your take? 🗳️
• Bullish: $12+ soon, EV boom drives growth 🐂
• Neutral: Steady, risks balance out ⚖️
• Bearish: $9 looms, market stalls 🐻
Chime in below! 👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY 🎯
F’s $10.18 price tags potential value 📈, but volatility’s in the air 🌿. Dips are our DCA fuel 💰—buy low, ride high! Gem or bust?
AUDNZD Under Pressure! SELL!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for AUDNZD is below:
The market is trading on 1.0985 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 1.0951
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDCAD Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
USDCAD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 1.4316 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 1.4336
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would anticipate a potential curveball and that being that price may just support on the open at the immediate support level and give the move upside into the 3010 and above that 3020 region which was achieved. We then updated traders with the FOMC report suggesting a further move upside into the 3050-55 region which is where we suggested the potential short will come from.
After the push up into the level and then some accumulation, Friday gave us the volume we needed to break away from the range and complete the move downside to end the week.
Again, nearly all of our bias level targets were completed, the bias level worked well, Excalibur performed well and the red box indi’s worked a dream, even in the choppy market conditions.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
We have an issue with gold at the moment, although it’s broken the immediate range, it’s still above 3000 with a larger range low around the 2990 and below that 2970-75 region. That potential swing point below is an area of interest for us this week and leading up towards the end of the month. For that reason, if we can support at the first red box below, and continue the move that started on Friday up into those 3025, 3030 and above that 3035-7 price points we’ll want to monitor this careful for a reversal to form. If we can get it, an opportunity to add or take the short may be available to traders, this time in attempt to break below the 3000 level into those lower support level mentioned and shown on the chart, which also correspond with the red boxes. As many of you have seen over the last year or so, we’ve been sharing these indicator boxes on the 4H for the wider community for free, as they are extremely powerful in identifying turning points and entry and exit points for traders. So let’s keep an eye on them this week for the break and closes, RIP’s and rejections.
We’re mostly looking for this one move to complete, however, there has to be a flip! This week, the flip is breaking above that 3035-37 level which will also be this week’s bias level. If we do breach, we’ll be looking at this to then continue higher, breaking 3050 and then resuming the move into the active Excalibur targets above which ideally, we don't want to see happen yet!
So, we know we want higher, what we do want though is better entry levels for the longs, until then, if we can capture these short trades we’ll of course gratefully take them.
KOG’s bias for the week:
Bearish below 3040 with targets below 3010, 3006, 2997, 2985 and below that 2978
Bullish on break of 3040 with targets above 3050, 3055, 3063 and above that 3067
RED BOXES:
Break above 3037 for 3040, 3047, 3050, 3055, 3063 and 3066 in extension of the move
Break below 3010 for 3006, 3000, 2997, 2990 and 2985 in extension of the move
This should give you an idea of your levels, please use them!
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Breaking: Filecoin Reclaims $3 Surging 4.80% Today The price of Filecoin ( LSE:FIL ) saw a noteworthy uptick in price surging 4.80% today, breaking key resistance albeit the crypto market in a bullish trend. LSE:FIL is enroute the $4 mark.
The decentralized storage system that aims to “store humanity’s most important information has been constrained in a consolidation zone for almost 2 months without a clear cut direction, sticked in the $2.70 price zone.
Should Filecoin breakthrough the $3.3 pivot point and possibly the 1month high that is serving as the the resistant point ($3.5), LSE:FIL could secure a move to the $4 zone and consequently a breakout to $7-10.
Filecoin Price Live Data
The live Filecoin price today is $3.12 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $131,402,802 USD. Filecoin is up 3.50% in the last 24 hours, with a live market cap of $2,016,455,965 USD. It has a circulating supply of 645,941,959 FIL coins and the max. supply is not available.
Worldcoin $WLD Child Sam Altman (CEO of OpenAI) Worldcoin Project Analysis
Worldcoin is a cryptocurrency aimed at providing secure global economic access through innovative technology, primarily utilizing iris biometric identification. Co-founded by Sam Altman(CEO of OpenAI) , the project merges AI, blockchain, and decentralized finance for identity verification and equitable economic participation.
Key Innovations
Iris Biometric Technology : Unique method of online identity verification, addressing identity fraud concerns.
Layer 2 Ethereum Solution : Enhances transaction speed and security within the crypto landscape.
World ID and Orb: Users get a digital identity with unique IrisHash, promoting human verification against systems designed to prevent Sybil attacks.
Market Forecasts
Long-term Growth Potential: Analysts suggest potential price increases, a maximum of $6$, until the end of 2025
Current Market Condition: Despite innovations, Worldcoin’s WLD token is trading at an all-time low, emphasizing market volatility.
Regulatory Challenges
Privacy Concerns: Investigated in multiple countries for data protection, raising ethical questions regarding biometric data usage.
I mpact on Market Launch: Ongoing regulatory scrutiny may delay the global rollout, particularly in the US.
Investment Outlook
Pros:
- Innovative approach offers unique value in the crypto space.
- Significant token allocation for community support adoption.
- Focus on security enhancements and compliance could improve market perception.
Cons:
-Regulatory investigations may impact growth and trust.
-Current low market performance showcases potential investor skepticism.
-Ethical concerns surrounding biometric data handling may deter users.
Conclusion: Worldcoin holds significant long-term growth potential due to its innovative identity verification technology and economic paradigm shift towards equitable participation. However, market conditions, regulatory challenges, and privacy concerns pose serious investor risks. Monitoring regulations and technological developments will be crucial for potential investors in navigating this complex landscape.
Best regards EXCAVO
GBPUSD I Weekly CLS , KL - Order block, Model 1 , CLS restestHey Traders!!
Feel free to share your thoughts, charts, and questions in the comments below—I'm about fostering constructive, positive discussions!
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS represents the "smart money" across all markets. It brings together the capital from the largest investment and central banks, boasting a daily volume of over 6.5 trillion.
✅By understanding how CLS operates—its specific modes and timings—you gain a powerful edge with more precise entries and well-defined targets.
🛡️Follow me and take a closer look at Models 1 and 2.
These models are key to unlocking the market's potential and can guide you toward smarter trading decisions.
📍Remember, no strategy offers a 100%-win rate—trading is a journey of constant learning and improvement. While our approaches often yield strong profits, occasional setbacks are part of the process. Embrace every experience as an opportunity to refine your skills and grow.
Wishing you continued success on your trading journey. May this educational post inspire you to become an even better trader!
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
David Perk ⚔
Potential Downtrend in AlcoaAlcoa has bounced this month, but some traders could think it’s due for a pullback.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower lows and lower highs since December. The aluminum company has climbed to the top of that falling channel, which may create potential resistance.
Second, prices stalled at the falling 50-day moving average (SMA) in February and seem to be peaking at the same SMA this month.
Speaking of the 50-day SMA, it recently had a “death cross” below the 200-day SMA.
Next, stochastics are dipping from an overbought condition.
Finally, the 52-week low is near $27 and last year’s low is under $25. Combined with the falling channel, those levels may provide space for potential moves to the downside.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
ADA Ready for PUMP or what ?Currently, ADA is forming an ascending triangle, indicating a potential price increase. It is anticipated that the price could rise, aligning with the projected price movement (AB=CD).
However, it is crucial to wait for the triangle to break before taking any action.
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
_ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Dow Jones Industrial Average ($US30): Market Mover or Stumbling?(1/9)
Good afternoon, everyone! ☀️ Dow Jones Industrial Average ( BLACKBULL:US30 ): Market Mover or Stumbling Block?
With the Dow at $42,407.80, is this blue-chip index a steady climber or a shaky step? Let’s chart the course! 🔍
(2/9) – PRICE PERFORMANCE 📊
• Current Price: $ 42,407.80 as of Mar 24, 2025 💰
• Recent Move: Up 0.8% from $41,985.35 on Mar 21, per data 📏
• Sector Trend: Mixed with tech, aerospace gains 🌟
It’s a bumpy climb—let’s see what’s driving it! ⚙️
(3/9) – MARKET POSITION 📈
• Composition: 30 U.S. blue-chip firms, all sectors but transport, utilities 🏆
• Trend: Volatile but up 1.2% weekly as of Mar 21, per data ⏰
• Sentiment: Cautious optimism amid trade tensions 🎯
Firm but tested by macro winds! 📊
(4/9) – KEY DEVELOPMENTS 🔑
• Fed Update: Rates steady, economic uncertainty up, per data 🌍
• Sector Gains: Boeing up 7% on Air Force deal, per data 📋
• Market Reaction: Dow up after tariff reprieve hopes 💡
Navigating a stormy market! 🌪️
(5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS ⚡
• Trade Tensions: U.S.-China tariffs spark inflation fears 🔍
• Economic Slowdown: Consumer sentiment at 2022 lows 📉
• Policy Shifts: Trump tariffs add uncertainty ❄️
It’s a rocky path—watch the curves! 🛑
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS 💪
• Blue-Chip Base: 30 industry leaders 🥇
• Sector Gains: Tech, aerospace lift index 📊
• Resilience: Up 12.7% from 52-week low 🔧
Got a sturdy engine under the hood! 🏦
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES ⚖️
• Weaknesses: Volatility, 5.9% off peak 📉
• Opportunities: Rate cut hopes, tech rebound 📈
Can it climb higher or stall out? 🤔
(8/9) – POLL TIME! 📢
Dow at $42,407.80—your take? 🗳️
• Bullish: $44,000+ soon, rally resumes 🐂
• Neutral: Steady, risks balance out ⚖️
• Bearish: $40,000 looms, correction deepens 🐻
Chime in below! 👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY 🎯
Dow’s $42,407.80 price shows cautious gains 📈, but volatility’s in the air 🌿. Dips are our DCA fuel 💰—buy low, ride high! Gem or bust?
Gold Maintains Bullish Momentum Despite Untouched Imbalance@2987Gold market continues its bullish congestion, holding steady after last Friday’s demand zone mitigation at $3001/OZ. However, an untouched imbalance at $2987 remains a key level to watch. If price retraces, this zone could act as a support before a potential move back towards the previous high at $3056.follow for more insight , comment and boost idea .
Chaos = OpportunityThe key to crypto is to embrace the market chaos and learn to thrive in it!
When FUD hits, you should never panic.
Instead, use it as an opportunity to reassess your strategies and capitalize on the opportunity.
The key is not to try and predict every price swing but to have a solid plan that rides out the storm.
Remember, it's not timing the market it's time in the market that counts. @CryptoJayTrades
SAND in coming days ...Currently, SAND is forming an ascending triangle, indicating a potential price increase. It is anticipated that the price could rise, aligning with the projected price movement (AB=CD).
However, it is crucial to wait for the triangle to break before taking any action.
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
_ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Pullback in Palantir Palantir Technologies had a dramatic rally in recent months, and now traders may see an opportunity in its latest pullback.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). While many other stocks, like Apple and Microsoft, have plunged below their 200-day SMAs, PLTR ended last week above its 50-day SMA. That may reflect relative strength versus the broader market.
Second, prices made a lower low and higher high on Friday. That kind of outside candle is a potentially bullish reversal pattern.
Third, the software company just had its highest weekly close since February 21.
Next, some short-term indicators may be positive: MACD is rising and the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is nearing a potential cross above the 21-day EMA.
Finally, PLTR is one of the top underliers in the options market. (Its 800,000 contracts per day in the last month ranks it fourth in the S&P 500, according to TradeStation data.) That could help traders take positions with calls and puts.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See www.TradeStation.com . Visit www.TradeStation.com for full details on the costs and fees associated with options.
Margin trading involves risks, and it is important that you fully understand those risks before trading on margin. The Margin Disclosure Statement outlines many of those risks, including that you can lose more funds than you deposit in your margin account; your brokerage firm can force the sale of securities in your account; your brokerage firm can sell your securities without contacting you; and you are not entitled to an extension of time on a margin call. Review the Margin Disclosure Statement at www.TradeStation.com .
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
ANKR/USDT Will Bulls Take Control or Are We Heading Lower?
Yello Paradisers! Are we about to see #ANKRUSDT break out, or is another rejection incoming? Let’s break it down this is a crucial moment in the market, and you don’t want to miss it.
💎Right now, the 4-hour chart shows SEED_DONKEYDAN_MARKET_CAP:ANKR sitting above the EMA 50, signaling a short-term bullish push. But don’t get too excited just yet—price is still below the EMA 200, which keeps the overall market bias neutral to bearish. For the bulls to take over, a clean breakout above the EMA 200 resistance is needed. If ANKR fails here, we could see another test of the supply zone between 0.02019 - 0.02271, followed by a potential pullback toward the 0.01504 support level.
💎Now, zooming out to the 1-day chart, the picture gets even more interesting. The price is still trading below both the EMA 50 and EMA 200, confirming that the bigger trend remains bearish. What does this mean? Any bullish moves on the 4-hour chart could just be temporary retracements within a larger downtrend. With this structure, selling pressure is still dominant, and unless we see a major reversal, further downside remains on the table.
💎So, what’s the key takeaway? Short-term bullish opportunities exist, but they’re facing strong resistance from the EMA 200 and supply zone. Meanwhile, the longer-term trend remains bearish, meaning any failure to break higher could increase the risk of a deeper drop possibly toward the 0.01294 support area.
Patience and precision are key in these conditions wait for strong confirmation before making your moves.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
GOOGL: Bullish Bounce Before a Bigger Drop? Here's My RoadmapGoogle NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:GOOGL is shaping up to look bullish in the short term, and I believe that in the next few weeks to months, we could see a solid upside move - before things could turn ugly again later on. Let me explain why.
Big picture: we’re currently in a Wave (2) corrective structure, which is playing out as a complex WXY correction (marked in orange). This type of correction follows a 3-3-3 wave pattern, and everything we’ve seen so far fits that structure. Since the top in February, NASDAQ:GOOGL has dropped around 24% , which is significant - but also not unexpected within this context.
What’s interesting now is that we’ve just printed a bullish divergence on the RSI for the first time in this move down. That’s the first green flag. The second? The lower wick, which I currently mark as sub-wave ((a)) has been very well respected so far. That’s the second sign that this could be the turning point - at least temporarily.
I’m expecting a move up in the coming weeks toward the 2024 VAH, around $178, where we could see a first rejection. From there, the price should continue higher in a 3-wave structure toward Wave ((b)), likely reaching between $187.80 and $196.30 (the 61.8% to 78.6% retracement zone).
But let’s be clear: this is not the start of a new bullish trend. After Wave ((b)), I expect a 5-wave move to the downside, completing Wave ((c)) - and that means lower prices ahead , potentially in Q3, Q4 2025 or even into 2026.
Until then, I’m keeping a close eye on this structure. As long as the current Wave ((a)) low holds, this short-term bullish scenario remains valid. If we get a strong breakout in the coming days / weeks, I’ll be looking to enter on a retest, targeting that $187.80–$196.28 zone.
Let’s see if the market plays it my way.
Make sure to follow me for future updates on this scenario and other setups !
Update: Elliot-wave-says-no INDEX:BTCUSD
Hypothesis:
- Rejection from confluence of 20 week MA, 50 day MA and 0.786 Fib level (and Elliot prediction pattern)
- Test $74k support line and 0.618 weekly Fib level, possibly wick $69k
Fundamentals
Key Points
Research suggests inflation is moderate, with annual CPI at 2.46% and PCE at 2.06% for March 2025, though tariffs may push prices higher.
It seems likely that employment growth is slowing, with 151,000 jobs added in February 2025 and unemployment at 4.1%, showing some weakness.
The evidence leans toward economic contraction, with Q1 2025 GDP growth estimated at -1.8%, following 2.3% in Q4 2024.
Consumer strength appears mixed, with a 4.6% personal savings rate in January 2025 and high credit card rates at 24.20%.
Monetary policy is steady, with the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, and potential future rate cuts are anticipated.
Fiscal policy faces challenges, with debt projected to reach 200% of GDP by 2047 if unchanged, amid possible tax cuts.
Banking risks include regulatory and credit issues, especially in commercial real estate for smaller banks.
Energy demand is rising, with renewables like solar growing fast, while natural gas remains key.
Real estate is tough, with high prices and rates, but moderation in price increases is expected.
Commodities outlook is bearish, with declining prices, except for gold, which may see record highs.
Inflation: Current Projections and Tariff Impacts
Inflation projections, as per the Cleveland FED's inflation nowcasting (Cleveland FED Inflation Nowcasting), indicate that for March 2025, the annual CPI is estimated at 2.46%, with core CPI at 2.99%, and PCE at 2.06%, with core PCE at 2.47%. Quarterly figures for 2025 Q1 show CPI at 3.85% and PCE at 2.80%. These nowcasts are based on daily oil prices, weekly gasoline prices, and monthly CPI/PCE readings, aiming to estimate current inflation before official data releases.
Recent US tariff policies, implemented in early March 2025, add complexity. As of March 7, 2025, additional tariffs include 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada not satisfying USMCA rules of origin, 10% on Canadian energy products outside USMCA, and 20% on Chinese imports, up from 10% (CBP Tariff Statement). Economic analyses suggest these tariffs could increase inflation, with estimates ranging from a one-time 0.6% price increase to a 0.4% rise in PCE inflation, depending on implementation and retaliation (Impact of Tariffs on Inflation). The nowcasts likely account for these factors, but ongoing trade tensions, including retaliatory tariffs from Canada effective March 13, 2025, on $29.8 billion in US products, could further influence prices (Canada Tariff List).
Employment: Signs of Softening
The latest employment data, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation Summary for February 2025, released on March 7, 2025, shows nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000, below the 168,000 average over the prior twelve months (BLS Employment Situation). The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4% in January, with the labor force participation rate falling 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%, its lowest since January 2023. A broader measure of unemployment, including discouraged workers, jumped to 8%, the highest since October 2021, indicating potential cracks in the labor market amid policy uncertainty and government layoffs.
Economic Growth: Contraction Concerns
Economic growth estimates, as per the Atlanta FED's GDPNow model, indicate a significant slowdown, with Q1 2025 growth nowcast at -1.8% as of March 18, 2025, up from -2.1% on March 17, but still negative (Atlanta FED GDPNow). This follows a 2.3% growth in Q4 2024, as per the BEA's second estimate, driven by consumer and government spending but offset by investment declines (BEA GDP Q4 2024). The negative Q1 nowcast, if realized, could signal a recession, given the historical threshold of two consecutive quarters of negative growth, though Q4 2024 was positive.
Consumer Strength: Savings and Debt Pressures
Consumer strength is mixed, with the personal savings rate at 4.6% in January 2025, up from 3.5% in December 2024, reflecting caution (BEA Personal Saving Rate). This rate, calculated as personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, suggests households are saving more amid economic uncertainty. However, credit card interest rates are high, with the average APR at 24.20% for March 2025, down slightly from recent months but still burdensome, especially for those with weaker credit, where rates can reach 27.71% (Average Credit Card Rate).
Monetary Policy: Steady Rates with Future Cuts Anticipated
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, as outlined in the March 19, 2025, FOMC statement, maintains the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, unchanged from January and following cuts in late 2024 (Federal Reserve FOMC Statement). The FOMC projects a 50 basis point reduction in 2025 and another 50 in 2026, reflecting a cautious approach amid solid labor conditions and elevated inflation, with PCE inflation expected at 2.7% by year-end, influenced by tariffs. The Fed's stance balances supporting growth while monitoring inflation risks.
Fiscal Policy: Unsustainable Debt Trajectory
Fiscal policy faces significant challenges, with the GAO's February 2025 report warning of an unsustainable path, projecting federal debt held by the public to reach 200% of GDP by 2047 if current revenue and spending policies persist (GAO Fiscal Health). The Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure shows fiscal policy added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in Q4 2024, but expects a negative impact in Q1 2025, driven by weak federal and state purchases (Hutchins Center FIM). President Trump's proposed tax cuts, including extending TCJA provisions and new breaks, could increase deficits, adding pressure on interest rates and long-term fiscal sustainability (US Fiscal Policy 2025).
Banking and Credit Risks: Sectoral Vulnerabilities
The US banking sector faces multiple risks in 2025, particularly for midsize and regional banks with concentrated exposures to commercial real estate (CRE), especially office space. Deloitte Insights notes banks with assets between $10 billion to $100 billion have CRE loans at 199% of risk-based capital as of Q2 2024, compared to 54% for banks over $250 billion, highlighting potential credit risks (Banking Outlook 2025). Regulatory scrutiny, cybersecurity threats, and operational risks, as per Ncontracts, add pressure, with 89% of community bankers rating regulation as critical (Emerging Risks in Banking). Larger banks, however, have buffers to manage loan losses, and the sector is seen as resilient by some, with opportunities in fixed-income investments.
Energy: Rising Demand and Renewable Growth
The energy sector is experiencing robust demand, with utility-scale power generation reaching 3,287 billion kWh by September 2024, up 3% year-over-year, driven by federal policies promoting domestic content (Power and Utilities Outlook). Renewable energy, particularly solar, grew by 30% in 2024, expected to reach 34% growth by year-end, while natural gas, generating 43% of electricity, saw a 4.1% increase but is projected to decline to 40% in 2025 due to high fuel prices. The Trump administration's policies add uncertainty, but demand from data centers and electrification continues to grow (US Power Sector Outlook).
Real Estate: High Prices and Affordability Challenges
The real estate market remains challenging, with home prices and mortgage rates high, around 7%, prolonging buyer struggles (Housing Market Predictions). The surge in prices since 2020 has lost steam, with some markets seeing declines due to increased inventory and softer demand. Experts project moderation in 2025, with slower increases in prices and rents, but affordability gaps persist, especially with potential rate cuts expected to boost buying power (5-Year Housing Predictions).
Commodities: Bearish Outlook with Gold Exception
The commodities outlook for 2025 is generally bearish, with the World Bank projecting a 5% decline in commodity prices, reaching a five-year low, driven by an oil glut limiting price effects even with Middle East conflicts (Commodity Markets Outlook). Energy prices are expected to drop, with oil prices declining, though natural gas may rise. Metal prices are set to edge lower, while agricultural prices should ease. However, gold is expected to hit record highs, driven by central bank easing and safe-haven demand amid trade tensions (Commodities Outlook 2025).
Additional Considerations
Other important factors include geopolitical risks, such as trade wars and conflicts, impacting energy and commodities, and technological shifts like AI driving energy demand. The interplay of these elements, alongside domestic policy shifts, underscores the complexity of the economic outlook, with significant implications for growth, inflation, and financial stability.
Breaking: Intuitive Machines ($LUNR) Up 2% In Mondays Premarket The shares of Intuitive Machines, Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:LUNR ) are up 2.35% in Monday's premarket session. A company that designs, manufactures, and operates space products and services in the United States.
Its space systems and space infrastructure enable scientific and human exploration and utilization of lunar resources to support sustainable human presence on the moon. The company offers lunar access services, such µNova, lunar surface rover services, fixed lunar surface services, lunar orbit delivery services, rideshare delivery services to lunar orbit, as well as content sales and marketing sponsorships.
Technical Outlook
As of the time of writing, shares of Intuitive Machines, Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:LUNR ) are up 3% in premarket session. Trading in tandem with the 1-month low pivot albeit close to the support point, NASDAQ:LUNR is gaining momentum with a break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement point set to be the catalyst to spark a bullish renaissance for NASDAQ:LUNR shares.
Though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is oversold at 30, NASDAQ:LUNR is looking poised to break the psychological 38.2% Fib level. Intuitive Machines, Inc. earnings is coming up Tuesday, May 13, 2025, before market open.
Analyst Forecast
According to 6 analysts, the average rating for LUNR stock is "Strong Buy." The 12-month stock price forecast is $15.5, which is an increase of 118.62% from the latest price.
DOT in coming days ...The pattern has broken, and now I expect the price to rise to $5.3.
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
_ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
EGLD in coming days ...Currently, EGLD is forming an ascending triangle, indicating a potential price increase. It is anticipated that the price could rise, aligning with the projected price movement (AB=CD).
However, it is crucial to wait for the triangle to break before taking any action.
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
_ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!