Electronic Arts: Breakout and PullbackElectronic Arts broke out to new all-time highs last month, and now it’s pulled back.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the bullish gap on August 11 following a successful test of its Battlefield 6 video game. Combined with a strong quarterly report on July 29, those moves could reflect positive fundamentals.
Second is $167.01, an old record weekly closing high from December 6. EA has tested below that level in recent sessions but remained above it. Has old resistance become new support?
Third, Wednesday’s session saw a higher high and lower low. That kind of bullish outside candle may be viewed as evidence of buying activity. EA also closed above its 21-day exponential moving average, a potentially positive short-term signal.
Next, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is above the 100-day SMA. Both are above the 200-day SMA. That recent alignment, with faster SMAs above slower ones, may suggest a long-term bullish trend has begun.
Finally, stochastics are rebounding from an oversold condition.
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AppLovin: Undervalued AI Ad Tech Powerhouse or Volatility Trap? AppLovin: Undervalued AI Ad Tech Powerhouse or Volatility Trap? $615 Target Incoming?
AppLovin (APP) shares are trading at $567.12 today, up 1.60% amid a fresh 52-week high and S&P 500 inclusion set for September 22, fueling a 75% YTD rally driven by its AI-powered marketing platform.
With Q2 2025 earnings crushing expectations—revenue surging 44% YoY to $1.44B and EPS at $0.89—analysts are bullish, hiking targets to $615 amid 53% projected EPS growth over 3-5 years. But at a trailing P/E of 78x, is APP the undervalued gem poised to go viral in the $500B mobile ad market, or will high beta (3.85) and market jitters trigger a pullback? Let's unpack the fundamentals, SWOT, charts, and setups for September 11, 2025.
Fundamental Analysis
AppLovin's dominance in mobile app advertising and gaming, bolstered by its AXON AI engine, has propelled explosive growth, with free cash flow hitting $1.2B TTM and margins expanding to 35%. Analysts forecast 2025 EPS of $13.49 on $5.74B revenue, up 40% YoY, as AI optimizations drive advertiser ROI in a post-cookie world. Recent S&P 500 addition could attract $10B+ in passive inflows, underscoring its undervalued status at 1.8% below fair value per DCF models. However, premium valuations reflect growth bets, with risks from ad spending slowdowns if the economy softens.
- **Positive:**
- AI platform fueling 53% EPS growth forecast; Q2 beat with 44% revenue jump and net income flipping to $236M from prior losses.
- S&P 500 entry sparks institutional demand; market cap at $191.8B undervalues its 700%+ stock surge since 2023 lows.
- Broader trends in digital ads and gaming (e.g., partnerships with Unity) position APP for 20%+ annual gains amid AI boom.
- **Negative:**
- High beta (3.85) amplifies volatility; recent 24% monthly gain risks overextension if Fed delays cuts.
- Competition from Meta and Google could pressure market share if ad budgets shift.
SWOT Analysis
**Strengths:** Leading AI-driven ad tech with 2B+ daily users; strong cash generation ($1.2B FCF) enables buybacks and acquisitions; proven turnaround from gaming to profitable software focus.
**Weaknesses:** Elevated P/E (78x TTM) signals growth dependency; high volatility with beta 3.85 exposes to market swings; reliance on mobile ecosystem vulnerable to app store policy changes.
**Opportunities:** S&P 500 inclusion for passive inflows; expansion into e-commerce and CTV ads via AI; undervalued growth at 42x forward P/E amid 53% EPS CAGR.
**Threats:** Economic downturn crimping ad spend; intensifying competition from Big Tech; regulatory scrutiny on data privacy impacting AI models.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, APP is in a strong uptrend, breaking to new 52-week highs at $576 after consolidating above $500 support, with volume spiking on S&P news. The weekly shows a multi-year bull flag breakout from 2023 lows, now extending with higher highs. Current price: $567.12, with VWAP near $560 as intraday pivot.
Key indicators:
- **RSI (14-day):** At 68, bullish but approaching overbought—room for extension if momentum holds. 📈
- **MACD:** Positive crossover with expanding histogram, confirming upside acceleration; watch for divergence on overbought signals. ⚠️
- **Moving Averages:** Price well above 21-day EMA ($520) and 50-day SMA ($480), with golden cross intact; 200-day EMA at $350 trails far below.
Support/Resistance: Key support at $500 (recent breakout level and 50-day SMA), resistance at $576 (all-time high) and $615 (analyst target). Patterns/Momentum: Bull flag extension targets $650; strong buy rating for 1-week horizon. 🟢 Bullish signals: Volume surge and S&P catalyst. 🔴 Bearish risks: Overbought RSI could prompt 10% pullback on profit-taking.
Scenarios and Risk Management
- **Bullish Scenario:** Break above $576 on S&P inflows or soft CPI data targets $615 short-term, then $650 by year-end. Buy pullbacks to $500 for high-conviction entries.
- **Bearish Scenario:** Drop below $500 eyes $450 (200-day EMA); broader tech selloff could retrace 15-20% if growth slows.
- **Neutral/Goldilocks:** Range-bound $500–$576 if data mixed, ideal for options plays or waiting for Q3 earnings.
Risk Tips: Set stops 3% below support ($485) to manage volatility. Risk 1-2% per trade. Diversify with META or GOOGL to hedge ad sector correlations—avoid overexposure in high-beta names.
Conclusion/Outlook
Overall, a bullish bias if APP sustains above $500, highlighting its undervalued growth with 50%+ upside amid AI ad dominance and S&P buzz—perfect for viral momentum in retail circles. But monitor Fed decisions and Q3 guidance for confirmation; this fits September's small-cap rotation into high-growth tech. What’s your take? Loading up on APP's rally or waiting for a dip? Share in the comments!
BITCOIN PULLSBACK TO COMPLETE A CORRECTION BEFOPRE IT DROPSBITCOIN ANALYSIS (Hourly Timeframe)
0n the 14th of August 2025 price terminnated to complete primarry wave 5. According to this count, minor wave 1 terminated on the 1st of September 2025 to begin the primary wave ABC correction. Price is currently printing the minor wavee 2 pullback before anotther drop (minor wave 3). MMinor wave 2 is forecasted to terminate around 61.8% retraceemmennt of minor wave 1
#SabaliCapital
#TechnicalAnalysis
#Bitcoin
Gold Pulls Back Short-Term After Hitting $3,673📊 Market Overview:
• Gold eased after touching $3,673, pressured by profit-taking and a slight rebound in the U.S. Dollar.
• Expectations of Fed rate cuts continue to support gold in the medium term, but near-term correction pressure is dominant.
• Geopolitical tensions and bullish forecasts of $3,800–$4,000 remain longer-term supportive factors.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance: $3,645 – $3,670
• Nearest Support: $3,600, further down $3,585
• EMA 09: Price is currently below EMA 09, signaling short-term bearish pressure.
• Candles / Momentum: After peaking at $3,673, gold formed a corrective sequence; RSI has cooled off from overbought, confirming selling pressure in the short term.
• Fibonacci Extensions: A breakout above $3,670 could open the way toward $3,697 and $3,725.
📌 Outlook:
In the short term, gold is likely to continue correcting toward $3,600 before buyers may step back in. A reclaim of EMA 09 and a breakout above $3,670 could extend the bullish move toward $3,697 – $3,725.
💡 Suggested Trading Strategy:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD : $3,670 – $3,673
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
🛑 SL: $3676
🔺 BUY XAU/USD : $3,602 – $3,605
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
🛑 SL: $3,599
XUUSD IDEAGold is consolidating ahead of key U.S. inflation data (CPI), trading near $3,650 and testing short-term support. Despite the intraday correction, the broader bullish structure remains intact as the market holds below the recent record high of $3,675.
CPI Outlook:
Higher-than-expected CPI: Likely to strengthen the dollar, weigh on gold, and reduce expectations for Fed easing.
Lower-than-expected CPI: Could trigger fresh highs in gold, reinforcing expectations of aggressive rate cuts.
Currently, markets are pricing a 92% probability of a 25 bps rate cut and an 8% chance of a 50 bps cut at the September 17 meeting.
Technical Picture:
Gold is consolidating within a bullish trend. The $3,620 zone is critical holding above it would confirm buyer strength, while a breakdown could extend the correction toward the $3,607–3,600 imbalance zone before renewed upside momentum.
Resistance: 3,638, 3,649, 3,657
Support: 3,620, 3,607, 3,600
Trading Signals (XAU/USD):
🟢 Buy Zone: 3,600 – 3,605 | TP1: 3,639 | TP2: 3,658
🔴 Sell Zone: 3,625 – 3,621 | TP: 3,603
BTC has formed an Ascending Triangle in a DowntrendWhat is Happening Here?
If we take a look at Bitcoin, it's pretty interesting right now: we can observe an ascending triangle just formed. But this pattern took shape after a sharp drop in price.
An ascending triangle is a bullish continuation pattern:
- The resistance line stays horizontal (flat top).
- The support line is rising, creating higher lows.
So what does this mean?
This indicates that buyers are gradually pushing prices higher while sellers are consistently defending the resistance level.
And often with this pattern, the buying pressure overwhelms the sellers, causing a breakout to the upside.
🔹 Breakout expectation:
- Wait for breakout confirmation always! (strong candle close above resistance with volume), and/or on a retest of the broken resistance (now acting as support).
- With this pattern, if it breaks above strongly, the target can typically be measured by taking the height of the triangle and adding it to the breakout level.
🔹 Risk Factors:
- False breakouts can occur (price temporarily breaks resistance but falls back inside).
- If the pattern fails and price breaks below the rising trendline, it may signal bearish weakness.
✅ The reliability of the pattern increases on higher timeframes and with strong breakout volume.
In summary
An ascending triangle shows the following: Buyers are showing strength with rising lows, while resistance is being pressured repeatedly. A confirmed breakout above resistance could drive price toward a psychological target. Waiting for a strong breakout and possibly a retest helps reduce false signal risk.
Not financial advice, just sharing my thoughts on the charts.
Trade safely 😊
NAS100 Outlook: Recent rise has been steady!Market context on NAS100 remains bullish clearly. The most recent move saw a steady recovery, heading towards the upper boundary of the newly projected channel. And this right here is another great opportunity to get involved.
The market is likely in the early stages of a new impulsive leg to the upside right here.
We could also have short-term consolidation or pullback, then a continuation toward the upper boundary but I believe the latter is more plausible.
My target will be at 25,100.
BTCUSD 4-Hour Chart Analysis
In terms of resistance, the 116,000 level is a key hurdle to watch. If the price can successfully break through 116,000 with strong momentum, it would open the door to further upside potential. Before that, the 115,000 level could act as a near-term resistance to test the bulls' strength.
For traders, the strategy could be to monitor the price action around the 112,500 support. If the support holds and there are signs of a bullish reversal , it may be an opportunity to consider long positions with a target towards 115,000 and then 116,000. Conversely, a breakdown below 112,500 would shift the bias to the downside, with the next support level to watch at 110,640
Overall, the near-term trend hinges on the price's interaction with the 112,500 support and the subsequent attempt to challenge the 115,000 - 116,000 resistance zone.
Buy 112500 - 113500
TP 114500 - 115500 - 116000
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
AUDJPY: Confirmed Break of Structure 🇦🇺🇯🇵
AUDJPY set a new higher high higher close on a daily,
breaking a major horizontal resistance cluster.
I expect more growth now.
I think that the pair will reach 98.0 level soon.
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Gold Faces 3700 USD Resistance – Reversal or Breakout?👋Hello everyone, what do you think about the trend of OANDA:XAUUSD ?
Currently, gold is trading around 3645 USD in a price box, almost unchanged compared to the same session yesterday. Alternating rises and pullbacks indicate accumulation. Investors are now eagerly waiting for the upcoming CPI and Unemployment Claims data. If results come out weaker for the USD, gold may find an opportunity to challenge the key 3700 USD level.
Let’s wait for the results and see how gold will move!
Good luck!
$MILK Breakout Descending Broadening Wedge Patterna bullish reversal pattern in technical analysis that forms during a downtrend. Characterized by increasing volatility, it is outlined by two downward-sloping, diverging trendlines that form a megaphone shape. The pattern indicates a potential long-term trend reversal where bearish momentum is weakening, and bullish sentiment is gaining.
Itron: Undervalued Smart Grid Play or Tech Pullback Risk? Itron: Undervalued Smart Grid Play or Tech Pullback Risk? $144 Target in Play?
Itron (ITRI) shares are trading at $118.29 today, down 0.40% from yesterday's close but up 2.5% over the past week amid broader market gains following S&P 500 and Nasdaq record highs. As a leader in smart metering and utility analytics, Itron reported record Q2 2025 profitability and raised its full-year earnings guidance, even as revenue expectations were trimmed slightly due to supply chain hiccups.
With analysts pegging a $144.40 one-year target—implying 22% upside—and the stock flagged as one of September's top undervalued picks, is ITRI poised for a breakout on IoT and energy transition tailwinds, or will sector rotation and macro jitters weigh it down? Let's dissect the fundamentals, SWOT, technicals, and setups for September 11, 2025.
Fundamental Analysis
Itron's growth is anchored in the booming demand for smart grid solutions, with Q2 2025 delivering EPS of $1.12 (beating estimates) and margins hitting all-time highs at 11.05%. Analysts forecast 2025 EPS of $6.45 on $2.5B revenue, up 10% YoY, fueled by utility digitization and partnerships in renewables. However, softer demand in some segments and persistent supply issues could pressure short-term execution if inflation lingers.
- **Positive:**
- Raised 2025 earnings guidance signals operational strength; strong backlog in smart metering amid global energy upgrades.
- Institutional buying and ETF inflows in industrials highlight undervaluation at 18.35 forward P/E versus sector average of 22x.
- Broader trends like AI-driven grid management and ESG mandates position Itron for 15%+ annual growth.
- **Negative:**
- Revenue trim in guidance reflects supply chain vulnerabilities and delayed projects.
- Economic uncertainties, including potential tariff escalations, could slow utility capex if rate cuts stall.
SWOT Analysis
**Strengths:** Dominant market position in smart metering with a 20%+ share in North America; robust R&D pipeline yielding high-margin IoT innovations and recurring software revenue.
**Weaknesses:** Heavy reliance on cyclical utility spending exposes earnings to economic downturns; elevated debt levels at 0.8x EBITDA limit flexibility amid rising rates.
**Opportunities:** Expansion into emerging markets like Asia-Pacific for grid modernization; integration of advanced analytics and AI for $11.9B global utility market by 2025 end.
**Threats:** Intensifying cybersecurity risks in connected devices; fierce competition from Siemens and Schneider, plus regulatory shifts in energy policies.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, ITRI is forming a bullish ascending triangle after rebounding from $115 support, with volume rising on the upside amid the broader tech rally. This follows a 3.68% monthly dip, now stabilizing near key EMAs as September forecasts eye a range of $108–$120. Current price: $118.29, with VWAP at $117.80 offering intraday balance.
Key indicators:
- **RSI (14-day):** At 52, neutral but climbing from oversold—bullish if it sustains above 55. 📈
- **MACD:** Histogram ticking positive with lines converging for a potential crossover, signaling emerging momentum. ⚠️
- **Moving Averages:** Price above the 21-day EMA ($116.50) but testing the 50-day SMA ($119)—a hold here maintains the uptrend.
Support/Resistance: Solid support at $115 (recent low and 200-day EMA), resistance at $120 (September high). Patterns/Momentum: Triangle apex approaching; breakout above $120 targets $130. 🟢 Bullish signals: Higher lows and analyst upgrades. 🔴 Bearish risks: Bearish MA trend could drag to $108 on sector weakness.
Scenarios and Risk Management
- **Bullish Scenario:** Clear $120 on strong earnings momentum or soft CPI data targets $130 short-term, then $144 by year-end. Buy dips to $115 for value entries.
- **Bearish Scenario:** Drop below $115 eyes $108 (monthly low); broader tech correction could trigger 10% pullback.
- **Neutral/Goldilocks:** Range-bound $115–$120 if data mixed, suitable for covered calls or waiting for Q3 catalysts.
Risk Tips: Set stops 2% below support ($112.70) to curb downside. Risk 1-2% of portfolio per trade. Diversify with peers like SEDG or broader industrials to dodge utility-specific traps.
Conclusion/Outlook
Overall, a bullish bias if ITRI holds $115 and guidance beats continue, cementing its undervalued status with 20%+ upside on smart grid demand.
But watch Q3 earnings and Fed minutes for confirmation—this echoes September's value rotation in tech amid record highs. What’s your take? Bullish on Itron's rebound or sidelining for now? Share in the comments!
GBP/USD Faces Resistance at Weekly Supply,Signal for Short EntryI am initiating an additional short position on GBP/USD as the currency pair has reached the Weekly Supply zone and is currently facing resistance in breaking above this area. The price action indicates a struggle to sustain upward momentum, with repeated rejections at this level. Moreover, the pair appears to be rejecting the Daily Supply zone as well, further confirming bearish pressure. Based on this technical setup, I am looking to capitalize on a potential downward move, positioning myself for a short trade.
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THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
Not bad for today with the lower hot spot holding and giving the move upside into the hot spot above for a decent long capture. We managed a couple of trades on the intraday red boxes but the up and down ranging was enough for us to stop and call it a day.
Now, we have support lower at the 3630 level and resistance higher at the 3660-5 region. With Cpi tomorrow, we would expect this to potentially spike but remain close to the mean. As long as we stay relatively below the red box we should test lower. Let's play caution though and wait for the breaks.
Apart from that, nothing else to report, an unusually quiet day on gold for a change.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Bullish Rally Confirmed?!
As I said yesterday, Bitcoin managed to violate a key daily
resistance cluster, and we have a confirmed bullish Change of Character CHoCH now.
Analyzing intraday time frames, I see a strong bullish confirmation
after a retest of a broken structure on an hourly time frame.
We can expect growth now.
First goal will be 115000.
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Monthly Closing above 440 would be a positive sign.GLAXO
CMP 413.56 (11-09-2025 12:57PM)
Monthly Closing above 440 would be a positive sign.
On the flip side, 385 - 390 seems to be a Good Support
with Immediate Resistance around 440 - 445.
Though it is Bullish on Bigger tf but its important to
Cross its mentioned Resistance level & sustain it.