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Shopify Inc | SHOP & AIShopify stock has seen sideways momentum for the last few weeks despite posting good results in the recent quarter. One of the reasons is the bull run in early 2023 due to which the stock has seen over 60% jump in year-to-date. Shopify has been able to reignite revenue growth in the last few quarters and there are strong tailwinds that can help the company improve its topline. At the same time, Shopify has been able to improve the conversion of Gross Merchandise Value or GMV into revenue due to better services. Shopify’s GMV has increased 11x between the last quarter of 2016 and the last quarter of 2022. During this time, Shopify’s quarterly revenue base has increased from $130 million to $1.7 billion or 13x. Shopify’s GMV for 2022 was $195 billion and rapid growth in this key metric should help the company improve monetization. The company has also undertaken some cost-cutting which is having a positive impact on the bottom line. Analysts have forecasted Shopify’s EPS at $1 for fiscal 2025 which means that the stock is trading 60 times the EPS estimate of 2025. However, better monetization and focus on cost optimization could help the company deliver good EPS growth in the next few quarters. The PS ratio is also at 12 which is significantly lower than the pre-pandemic years. Shopify stock can deliver good returns in the long term as the company adds new services and improves its GMV growth trajectory. Shopify reported a GMV of $5.5 billion in December 2016 quarter. This has increased to $60 billion in the recent December 2022 quarter. Hence, Shopify’s GMV has increased to 11 times within the last seven years. On the other hand, Shopify’s revenue during the December quarter has increased by 13 times, from $130 million to $1.7 billion. This growth trend shows that the company is able to convert more GMV into actual revenue. One of the main reasons behind this trend is that Shopify is adding new services and it can charge customers a higher commission for these services. Shopify’s GMV for 2022 was a staggering $195 billion. The company has been able to reignite revenue growth in the last few quarters. The YoY revenue growth hit a bottom of 15% in June 2022. Since then the YoY revenue growth has picked up again as the company faces easier comps. In the recent quarter, the company reported YoY revenue growth of over 30% which is quite high when we consider that the GMV base of Shopify is more than $200 billion. The revenue growth will not build a bullish momentum for the stock unless the company can deliver sustainable profitability. During the pandemic years, Shopify’s revenue growth and high EPS helped the stock reach its peak. The company would need to focus on profitability in the next few quarters in order to rebuild a long-term bullish rally. Shopify has divested from its logistics business which should help improve the bottom line. We should also see better monetization of current services as the company tries to build new AI tools. The EPS estimates for 2 fiscal years ahead have steadily improved in the last few quarters. According to current consensus, Shopify should be able to deliver EPS of $1 in fiscal year 2025. However, it is highly likely that Shopify will beat these estimates as the company launches new initiatives to improve monetization of its massive GMV base. Shopify’s trailing twelve months EPS during the peak of the pandemic went to $2.6. If the company can get close to this EPS rate by 2025, we should see a significant bullish run in the stock. The recent cost-cutting should also help the company improve the bottom line. We have seen a similar trend in all the Big Tech companies who have reported a rapid growth in EPS as their headcount was reduced. While most analysts agree over the long-term revenue growth potential of Shopify, some of them are wary of the pricey valuation of the stock. Shopify is trading at 12 times its PS ratio. This is quite high when we compare with most of the other tech players and even Shopify’s peer like Wix (WIX), Etsy (ETSY), and others. However, it should be noted that Shopify’s PS ratio is significantly lower than the average PS multiple prior to the pandemic when the stock had an average PS ratio of over 20. Shopify’s revenue estimates for 2 fiscal years ahead is close to $10 billion which is equal to annualized revenue growth of over 25%. If we look at this metric, Shopify stock is trading at 7 times the revenue estimate of fiscal year 2025. This looks reasonable if the company can also manage to improve its EPS trend over the next few years. The long-term tailwind from ecommerce growth is still very strong. Shopify will benefit from an increase in GMV and a higher ecommerce market share in key markets. This should help the company gain pricing leverage over other competitors and also improve its monetization momentum Shopify has reported a faster revenue growth rate compared to its GMV growth in the last few years. This shows that the company is able to charge higher rate for additional services. There has been an acceleration in revenue growth over the last few quarters. Shopify has also divested from logistics services which were pulling down the profitability of the company. Shopify could deliver over 20% YoY revenue growth for the next few years as the company gains from strong tailwinds within the ecommerce business. If Shopify regains its earlier ttm EPS of $2 by 2025, we could see a strong bull run within the stock. While the stock is not cheap, it seems to be reasonably valued and longer-term investors could gain a better return from Shopify, making the stock a Buy at current price.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by moonypto
2
DOGE & ELON The price of Dogecoin is $0.09 today with a 24hour trading volume of 770 million dollar . This represents a 10% price increase since last week and 22% price increase since last month Musk's tweet offering 1 million Dogecoin to anyone who could prove ownership of an emerald mine has led to gains of 4.9% and who can forget when he changed the Twitter logo to feature the Shiba Inu dog, which caused another 30% pump while Dogecoin's technical structure is bullish, there is a lack of buying pressure behind the coin. traders should be cautious and consider waiting for a break in structure on lower timeframes before seeking to enter short positions. daily active addresses have increased as social media buzzed about Dogecoin, but the 90-day mean coin age has been sliding downward since mid-March. Dogecoin bounced off the moving averages on April 12, as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick. The bulls tried to drive the DOGE/USDT pair above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.09 but the bears did not budge. This suggests that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. Buyers must push and sustain the price above $0.09 to indicate that the selling pressure may be reduced. The pair may then ascend to the 61.8% retracement level of $0.10. Usually, a break and close above this level results in a 100% retracement. If that happens, the pair may soar to $0.11.
by moonypto
11
Bitcoin's 2024 Halving to 2025 Peak: Will BTC Reach $294K?📌Historical Observations - 2012 Halving → 2013 Top: Duration: ~1 year. Price increase: ~8,600% (from ~$12 to ~$1,150). - 2016 Halving → 2017 Top: Duration: ~1.5 years. Price increase: ~2,900% (from ~$650 to ~$19,500). - 2020 Halving → 2021 Top: Duration: ~1.5 years. Price increase: ~900% (from ~$8,600 to ~$69,000). - 2024 Halving → Projected 2025 Top: Halving price: ~$64,000. 📌Identified Patterns - Time from Halving to Peak: Peaks occur around 1.33 to 1.5 years after the halving. - Diminishing Returns: Growth rates decrease with each cycle: 2012 to 2016: ~66% reduction in returns. 2016 to 2020: ~69% reduction in returns. Expected reduction for 2024 cycle: ~60-70%. 📌Projection for the 2024 Cycle Duration to Peak: Add 1.33 to 1.5 years to the halving date (April 2024). Projected top: June to October 2025. Price Growth: Assuming diminishing returns, we estimate 300% to 360% price growth from the halving price. Next Top Price=Halving Price×(1+Growth Rate) 300% growth: $64,000 × 4 = $256,000. 360% growth: $64,000 × 4.6 = $294,400. 📌Final Projection Next Bitcoin Peak Price: Estimated between $256,000 and $294,400. Timing: Likely between June and October 2025. Here’s to a successful and prosperous trading year ahead! 🎉 You’ve got this! Let’s make 2025 your best trading year yet. ~ Rich
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
23
Gold Analysis: Key Levels and Trends on the Year's Final DayGold Technical Analysis The price continues to consolidate within the range of 2,620 and 2,604, awaiting a breakout. A 1-hour or 4-hour candle closing below 2,604 would confirm a bearish trend, with potential targets at 2,585 and 2,558. Conversely, if a 4-hour candle closes above 2,623, it would signal a bullish trend, paving the way for upward movement toward 2,636 and 2,653. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 2615 Resistance Levels: 2623, 2636, 2645 Support Levels: 2604, 2591, 2585 Trend Outlook: Bearish below 2604 Bullish above 2623 previous idea:
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SroshMayi
USD/JPY Surges Higher:US Economic Strength Fuels Dollar MomentumThe USD/JPY exchange rate continues its upward trajectory, aligning with our forecast as robust US economic data bolsters the dollar. The price movement reflects the strong momentum of the USD, with the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report indicating that commercial traders maintain a strong position, while retail investors are riding the wave. Our initial price target is set at 155.050, and beyond that, we anticipate a potential move towards 158.000, where a notable supply zone exists. Recent US macroeconomic indicators point to significant growth in the fourth quarter. Investor sentiment remains buoyed by expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement interest rate cuts in December. However, the Fed may emphasize the strengthening economic conditions and rising inflation, which could lead to a more hawkish stance in their forward guidance. Conversely, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to maintain its current interest rate levels during Thursday's meeting. This comes after indications of a possible 25 basis point reduction just a week prior. Dovish comments from BoJ officials suggest that the bank will likely postpone any decisions until January to evaluate how US policies under the Trump administration might affect the Japanese economy. Today's economic calendar highlights US Retail Sales, which are projected to reflect strong consumer spending. This, combined with positive services activity reported earlier this week, is likely to curtail any downside pressures on the US dollar, at least until the Fed meeting's outcome. We are optimistic about a continued upward movement in the USD/JPY pair. Our Initial Forecast: ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
Yen Struggles as Investors Question BoJ's Rate Hike ProspectsThroughout the first half of the European trading session on Monday, the Japanese Yen continues to struggle against the US Dollar, with the exchange rate slipping to 0.006436 as I write this article. Investor skepticism regarding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) potential for further interest rate hikes plays a significant role in this downward trend. This uncertainty, combined with an overall positive market sentiment, is putting pressure on the traditionally safe-haven Yen. Moreover, the recent widening of the yield gap between US and Japanese government bonds—intensified by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance—further contributes to the Yen's decline. As the Fed signals a more aggressive monetary policy, the lower-yielding Yen becomes less attractive to investors. In terms of market outlook, we are anticipating a continuation of this bearish trend for the Yen against the Dollar. USD/JPY Previous Idea as reference: ✅ Please share your thoughts about JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6J1!Short
by FOREXN1
1
GOLD:Will the U.S. Dollar Cap Gold Gains?Analyzing Market TrendsGold prices have seen a surge in buying activity as the week begins, aiming to build upon the recovery initiated from a one-month low reached last Thursday. Analyzing the market from a technical perspective, we've observed the price hitting our pending order level. According to the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, retail traders remain bullish while commercial traders have shifted to a bearish stance over the past week. This dynamic suggests that we are anticipating a bearish continuation in gold prices despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, fears surrounding trade wars continue to create a backdrop that benefits the safe-haven appeal of gold. However, the strength of the U.S. Dollar (USD) presents a contrasting scenario that could further suppress gold prices. Recently, there has been a resurgence in dip-buying within the USD, fueled by the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and rising U.S. Treasury yields. These factors are likely to impose additional constraints on gold, a non-yielding asset, limiting its upside potential. In summary, while the geopolitical landscape might support gold's appeal, the prevailing strength of the dollar could undermine any significant price increases in the near term. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GOLD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD: Anticipating Market Movements Amid Holiday TradingAs the holiday season approaches, many institutional traders are taking a break for Christmas, leading to a unique trading environment in the financial markets. Today marks the reopening of Forex markets and selected indices, but traders should anticipate lower trading volumes due to the absence of many market participants. This reduced activity often results in heightened volatility, as fewer traders can lead to larger price swings when trades are executed. Turning our attention to the GBP/USD currency pair, it opens the week with a rather narrow candle range, currently trading around the 1.2531 mark. This level underscores the bearish trend that we’ve previously discussed, suggesting a continuation of downward movement in the near term. Traders should closely watch the significant support level at 1.2500, which may come under pressure as we approach the end of the year. There is a legitimate possibility that this demand zone could be breached, particularly with the unique market conditions prevailing during the holiday period. If the 1.2500 support does fail, the next area of interest for bearish traders would likely be around 1.2400. This level represents another critical support point, which, if broken, could indicate a strong bearish impulse in the market. As we navigate through the remainder of December, it's essential for traders to be prepared for unexpected moves. Currently, we find ourselves in a cautious position, opting to hold off on any trading activity at the moment. Our strategy is to wait for the price to reach our ideal demand area around 1.2500 before considering the next trade. It’s crucial to have a clear plan in place, especially in a market characterized by low liquidity and potential volatility. Monitoring the price action closely will be key to identifying optimal entry points that align with our trading strategy. As the year draws to a close, it’s vital to remain vigilant and adaptable. The interplay between reduced market participation and potential volatility could create opportunities, but it also necessitates prudent risk management. Whether we see a bearish momentum take shape before year-end or have to wait for the new year, patience and a disciplined approach will be critical to navigating this unique trading environment. Previous Idea ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Technical Analysis: Key Levels After 400-Pip DropTechnical Analysis Yesterday, the price dropped approximately 400 pip and reversed at its support level. Today, the price is expected to test 21,200. A break below this support level (21,200) could extend the bearish trend toward 20,990. However, if the price stabilizes above 21,200 with a 4-hour candle close, it could push higher toward 21,400. Stability above 21,400 would support a bullish move toward 21,535. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 31350 Resistance Levels: 21400, 21535, 21620 Support Levels: 21160, 20990, 20860 Trend Outlook: Consolidation between 21200 and 21395 Bearish Momentum by stability below 21200
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SroshMayi
S&P 500: Final Day Analysis with Key Levels and Trend OutlookS&P 500 Technical Analysis It's the final trading day of the year. The price shows bullish momentum up to 5,969, which must be confirmed by a 4-hour candle closing above this level. This could lead to a further rise toward 6,022, followed by a correction. Conversely, stability below 5,969 will trigger a bearish move from 5,969 toward 5,899 and potentially 5,863. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5937 Resistance Levels: 5969, 6022, 6053 Support Levels: 5905, 5863, 5790 Trend Outlook: Bearish Momentum: Stability below 5,969 Bullish Trend: If 5,969 is broken
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT 4H – LAST ONE OF THE YEAR! In last week’s KOG report we said we would be looking for price to find support on the open into path illustration and then attempt the move upside into the 2630-35 range which we suggested would be a reasonable target for any long trades. It’s at this level we wanted to take out our longs and attempt the short trade sticking with the bias of the week which was the 2660 bearish below level. It was a ranging week with minimal movement considering recent weeks, however, we managed to get the resistance level and then the move down on the red boxes where we suggested traders take partials and then leave runners at BE into the close. Another decent week on the markets in Camelot not only on Gold but the other pairs we trade and analyse. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? Well, we again have that order region of 2630-35 which we ideally would like to see visited one more time, however, there is a key level of resistance sitting at the 2625-7 region which we would price to attempt during the early session before settling again. Ideally, we would like to see one of these levels reject giving a further move downside into the lower support levels which are active on the red boxes. The first level being 2610 and below that 2600-4 which will need to break for us to go lower into the new year! It’s a really important week with the yearly candle close above the 2655 level to confirm further movement upside. The key levels for the end of year, support 2596, needs to break and close below in order to form the structure to go lower and break the range. Resistance 2640 needs to break upside and hold in order to see more gains on this precious metal. Simple one this week as we’re still on our festive break and spending limited time on the charts. We’ll update and post the analysis for the wider community as we go through the week. Otherwise, wishing you the best of success in your trading journey for the New Year and thank you for being with us. KOG’s Bias for the week: Bearish below 2640 with targets below 2610, 2604, 2596 and below that 2580 Bullish on break of 2640 with targets above 2655 and above that 2665 RED BOXES: Break above 2625 for 2630, 2635 and 2638 in extension of the move Break below 2613 for 2604, 2597, 2592 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
4
Will Bitcoin Push BLX to New Heights? Analyzing Market Cycles anHI traders Bitcoin has the power to shape the future, and as BLX follows its path, understanding the emotional market cycles becomes key to navigating its potential. In this analysis, we’ll explore the relationship between Bitcoin's movements and the psychological phases of the market cycle. From the initial optimism that drives the first wave of buying, to the euphoria when prices surge to new highs, and then the inevitable anxiety as market sentiment begins to shift. Fear sets in during the panic phase, leading to widespread selling, followed by despair, where most investors exit the market. However, this is followed by hope as the market stabilizes and slowly recovers. Understanding how these emotional shifts influence BLX and Bitcoin will help you spot opportunities, manage risk, and position yourself for success as the market moves through its cyclical nature. The key is not just predicting the market, but mastering your emotions to thrive in any phase.
BNC:BLXEducation
by hamidTrader21
How Does Market Psychology Shape BLX's Price Movements?Hi traders "How the Psychology of Market Cycles Influences BLX" The Psychology of a Market Cycle refers to the emotional and behavioral phases investors and traders experience as markets move through different stages, from optimism during bull markets to fear and despair during downturns. Understanding these psychological patterns is crucial for making informed decisions and avoiding common pitfalls. Market cycles are deeply intertwined with investor psychology, and their impact is clearly reflected in indices like BLX, which tracks Bitcoin’s price performance. The emotional phases of optimism, fear, and recovery that characterize market cycles shape the trajectory of BLX in profound ways. Bull Markets and Euphoria: In the optimistic and euphoric stages, BLX often experiences significant upward momentum as confidence and greed drive speculative buying. The "fear of missing out" (FOMO) accelerates the rise, pushing BLX to new highs. Bear Markets and Panic: When anxiety and denial give way to fear and capitulation, BLX faces sharp declines. Investors overwhelmed by negative sentiment sell off assets, leading to steep corrections in the index. Recovery and Hope: As despair subsides and hope emerges, BLX starts to stabilize and climb, driven by early adopters and institutional interest. This phase lays the groundwork for the next market cycle. Understanding the psychological dynamics behind market cycles can help traders and investors navigate BLX’s fluctuations, make informed decisions, and avoid being swayed by emotional reactions.
BNC:BLXEducation
by hamidTrader21