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NZD/USD Climbs on US-China Optimism and RBNZ Rate Cut ExpectatioNZD/USD Climbs on US-China Optimism and RBNZ Rate Cut Expectations
The NZD/USD currency pair edged higher during European trading hours on Thursday, recovering from two consecutive sessions of losses. Trading near 0.5982, the pair benefited from renewed optimism surrounding potential US-China trade negotiations, a key factor given New Zealand's strong economic ties with China.
This resurgence in the Kiwi dollar (NZD) contrasts with the broader trend of recent days. The previous decline was likely fueled by concerns over global economic growth and the impending interest rate decisions from central banks across the globe. The pair's upward movement now suggests a shift in sentiment, with investors recognizing the potential positive impact of a potential trade thaw.
Crucially, expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) upcoming May meeting are also playing a significant role. Markets are overwhelmingly pricing in a 25 basis-point cut to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from its current 3.5%. Furthermore, there's a growing expectation of further easing to 2.75% by the year-end. This anticipated easing of monetary policy in New Zealand is providing substantial support to the NZD, adding another bullish element to the current trading environment.
From a technical perspective, the price action around the crucial 0.5980 level highlights the interplay of fundamental and technical factors. While the price has reached a weekly supply zone, the confluence of optimistic trade sentiment and the expected OCR cut is currently outpacing any bearish technical indicators.
However, a sustained move above the significant resistance of the 0.6000 level is critical to confirming the renewed bullish momentum. A break above this psychological barrier would signal further strength in the Kiwi dollar, whereas a reversal below 0.5980 would bring the previously discussed bearish factors back into the forefront.
Looking ahead, the key to future direction for the NZD/USD will likely depend on the outcome of the US-China trade negotiations and any potential further developments regarding the RBNZ's interest rate decisions. Markets will be watching closely for any tangible progress in either area, as this will likely dictate the pair's trajectory.
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Trade Wars, Tariffs & Currencies: The Connection Explained📊 What Are Tariffs & Why Should Traders Care? 💱
Tariffs are taxes imposed by a country on imported goods. Think of them as the "price of entry" foreign products must pay to access domestic markets.
🔍 Why Governments Use Them:
Protect domestic industries from cheaper foreign goods
Retaliate in trade disputes
Raise revenue (less common today)
🧠 Why Traders Should Watch Tariffs:
Tariffs don’t just hit companies—they ripple through economies and currency markets. Here’s how:
📉 1. Currency Impact
Tariffs can lead to currency depreciation in the targeted country as trade volumes fall and foreign demand drops.
Example: When the U.S. imposed tariffs on China, the Yuan weakened to offset the blow.
📈 2. Inflation Pressure
Tariffs make imports more expensive, fueling inflation. Central banks may respond with rate hikes—which moves markets.
🌐 3. Risk Sentiment
Tariff wars increase global uncertainty = risk-off sentiment. Traders flee riskier currencies (like EMFX) for safe havens like the USD, CHF, or JPY.
🔄 4. Trade Balance Shifts
Tariffs can affect a country's trade balance, influencing long-term currency valuation.
💡 Trading Tip:
Watch for tariff announcements or trade tension headlines—they often precede volatility spikes in major pairs. Combine with sentiment tools and fundamentals for best results.
Gold Falls Below $3,320 as Dollar Strengthens Post-Fed Gold (XAU/USD) extended losses for a second day, falling to $3,320 on Thursday as the US Dollar gained traction post-Fed’s hawkish hold . Markets remain cautious after Trump downplayed urgency on trade deals , while geopolitical tensions lend mild support to bullion. A key technical floor lies at $3,340 — a break below may open the path to $3,270. On the upside, bulls must reclaim $3,340 to aim for a fresh test of the $3,500 all-time high.
Resistance : $3,410, $3,500
Support : $3,270, $3,340
Long BitcoinBitcoin poised for much higher prices and target of 165,000. End of wave 2 is complete with institutional trade sizes at the end of the correction. Additionally, there was extreme CALL buying with Stochastic trend indicating that the upward trend is just beginning to continue.
Long Trade Setup – BTSG!📈
🔹 Asset: BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (NASDAQ: BTSG)
🔹 Timeframe: 30-Minute Chart
🔹 Setup Type: Bullish Wedge Breakout
📌 Trade Plan (Long Position)
✅ Entry Zone: Above $23.05 (Breakout Confirmation)
✅ Stop-Loss (SL): Below $21.66 (Wedge Invalidation Level)
🎯 Take Profit Targets
📌 TP1: $25.04 – First Resistance
📌 TP2: $27.45 – Measured Move Target
📊 Risk-Reward Calculation
📉 Risk: $23.05 - $21.66 = $1.39
📈 Reward to TP1: $25.04 - $23.05 = $1.99 → 1:1.43 R/R
📈 Reward to TP2: $27.45 - $23.05 = $4.40 → 1:3.16 R/R ✅
🔍 Technical Highlights
📌 Clean rising wedge breakout
📌 Strong bullish momentum following prior trend
📌 Volume build-up around breakout zone
📌 Higher highs and higher lows suggest strength continuation
📈 Execution Strategy
📊 Enter after confirmed breakout above $23.05
📉 Use SL below recent swing low ($21.66)
💰 Book partial profits at TP1, let winners ride to TP2
🚨 Invalidation Risk
❌ Exit if price falls below $21.66 with volume
❌ Avoid chasing if breakout lacks momentum
🚀 Final Take
✔ Bullish wedge breakout with momentum
✔ Excellent R:R profile for long setup
✔ Ride the breakout — stay disciplined and manage risk smartly
Short Trade Setup – FTDR!📉
🔹 Asset: Frontdoor, Inc. (NASDAQ: FTDR)
🔹 Timeframe: 30-Minute Chart
🔹 Setup Type: Rising Wedge Breakdown
📌 Trade Plan (Short Position)
✅ Entry Zone: Below $52.98 (Breakdown Confirmation)
✅ Stop-Loss (SL): Above $54.52 (Wedge Invalidation)
🎯 Take Profit Targets
📌 TP1: $50.65 – Key Support / Breakdown Target
📌 TP2: $48.46 – Extended Downside Target
📊 Risk-Reward Calculation
📉 Risk: $54.52 - $52.98 = $1.54
📈 Reward to TP1: $52.98 - $50.65 = $2.33 → 1:1.51 R/R
📈 Reward to TP2: $52.98 - $48.46 = $4.52 → 1:2.93 R/R ✅
🔍 Technical Highlights
📌 Rising wedge structure with overextension
📌 Breakdown at wedge support with retest rejection (yellow line)
📌 Volume thinning at highs – suggests buyer exhaustion
📌 Momentum fading after sharp rally
📉 Execution Strategy
📊 Watch for breakdown continuation below $52.98
📉 Move SL to breakeven after TP1 hit
💰 Scale out partial profits at TP1, ride rest to TP2
🚨 Invalidation Risk
❌ Exit if price reclaims and closes above $54.52
❌ Weak breakdown = re-evaluate or stay out
🚀 Final Take
✔ Clean rising wedge breakdown setup
✔ Great risk-reward for disciplined short traders
✔ Stick to plan, manage size — let price action lead
Long Trade Setup – SIBN!📈
🔹 Asset: SI-BONE, Inc. (NASDAQ: SIBN)
🔹 Timeframe: 30-Minute Chart
🔹 Setup Type: Bullish Pennant Breakout
📌 Trade Plan (Long Position)
✅ Entry Zone: Above $17.44 (Breakout Confirmation)
✅ Stop-Loss (SL): Below $16.70 (Pennant Invalidation Level)
🎯 Take Profit Targets
📌 TP1: $18.40 – Recent Resistance Zone
📌 TP2: $19.44 – Measured Move Target
📊 Risk-Reward Calculation
📉 Risk: $17.44 - $16.70 = $0.74
📈 Reward to TP1: $18.40 - $17.44 = $0.96 → 1:1.29 R/R
📈 Reward to TP2: $19.44 - $17.44 = $2.00 → 1:2.70 R/R ✅
🔍 Technical Highlights
📌 Bullish pennant forming after strong rally
📌 Breakout candle confirmed with volume
📌 Clean structure with consolidation above previous high
📌 Favorable price action with momentum buildup
📈 Execution Strategy
📊 Enter after breakout candle above $17.44
📉 SL below pennant base ($16.70)
💰 Partial profits at TP1, trail rest toward TP2
🚨 Invalidation Risk
❌ Exit if price breaks below $16.70 with volume
❌ Weak follow-through = reduce position or exit early
🚀 Final Take
✔ Bullish continuation pattern with strong structure
✔ Excellent reward-to-risk setup
✔ Let momentum work for you — plan your trade, trade your plan
$HIMS is in a livermore pattern This Livermore pattern is playing out great. 1.618 will be big resistance tho
Inverted H&S Pattern in place.
Inverted H&S Pattern in place.
Breakout done.
May take a Risk with a SL of 81 on Closing basis.
Targets can be around 92 - 95 then 100-102
$RATS Heating Up — 100% Move on the Table?$RATS – Pressure Building, Breakout Imminent
$RATS is quietly loading up for a massive breakout. Price has been grinding higher with strong demand stepping in at every dip — support structure is holding beautifully.
🧠 Key Observations:
Clean ascending structure
Consistent higher lows
Testing a major resistance zone
Volume creeping up = Accumulation signs
📈 Breakout Potential:
Once $RATS clears this resistance zone, the chart opens up for a sharp move — a 100%+ pump is well within reach based on the current range.
📌 What I’m watching for:
Break & close above resistance
Volume confirmation on breakout
Retest = entry zone for momentum chasers
The structure’s solid, the risk is tight, and the upside is explosive. Eyes on $RATS — the move could be BIG.Image
$GOOGL Breakdown – AI Risk Is No Longer "Future Tense"🚨 BREAKING: NASDAQ:AAPL confirms they are exploring AI-powered search within Safari after a decline in browser searches for the first time ever.
💥 NASDAQ:GOOGL is down over 8% intraday, cracking long-term trendline support and decisively below the 200DMA ($173).
📉 The setup is ugly:
Insiders sold post-earnings (again).
Trendline + moving average both lost.
Volume spike and vertical price action = capitulation risk ahead.
🔻 Downside momentum could accelerate if price fails to reclaim $155 quickly.
Mongoose Capital: Macro Dashboard – US500 Fed & Recession WatchOverview:
The Mongoose Capital Macro Dashboard offers a high-level view of key macroeconomic metrics driving market sentiment. Designed for the US500 (S&P 500 index), this tool tracks the interplay between Federal Reserve policy expectations, recession risk signals, and overall macro conditions in a clean, multi-panel layout.
Key Features:
FFR Cut Probability: Real-time assessment of Federal Reserve rate cut odds.
Macro Conditions Score: Composite indicator showing the alignment of liquidity, inflation, labor market health, credit spreads, yield curve status, and global growth.
Recession Risk Gauge: Aggregated recession probability, with dynamic background shading to reflect rising or falling risk.
Yield Curve & Credit Spreads: Plots to monitor inversion trends and credit market health.
Macro Event Markers: Highlights key events like CPI and FOMC meetings.
How to Use:
Optimized for the US500 on the 1D or 1W timeframe.
Use the Macro Conditions Score and FFR Cut Probability as a context filter for your trade setups.
Watch for Recession Score shifts (3/5 or higher) to flag caution zones.
Best Practice:
This dashboard is built for situational awareness, not as a direct buy/sell signal. Combine with technical analysis for trade execution.
Example Chart Setup:
US500 1D / 1W chart
Apply as an overlay to maintain macro visibility alongside price action.
Built by TheRealMongoose / Mongoose Capital.
Futures on CME and Launch of XpFinance DeFi PlatformOn May 7, 2025, the XRP ecosystem received two major developments that signal a new chapter in its evolution. First, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced the launch of futures contracts for XRP. Shortly thereafter, developers behind the XRP Ledger unveiled XpFinance — the first non-custodial lending platform built on the network. These two events are poised to reshape XRP's market perception and could attract a wave of new investment.
XRP Futures on CME: A Leap Toward Institutional Adoption
Set to go live on May 19, the new CME product will enable investors to trade XRP through regulated futures contracts. This is a major milestone. With similar contracts already in place for Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP becomes the third digital asset to gain such legitimacy in institutional markets.
The introduction of futures means greater liquidity, risk management tools, and a clear path for hedge funds, pension managers, and banks to engage with XRP — without needing to custody the underlying token directly. Analysts anticipate that this added market structure could drive up demand, especially if the rollout is smooth and met with trading interest.
XpFinance and the XPF Token: DeFi Comes to XRP Ledger
The second big announcement came from XpFinance, a new decentralized lending protocol. What sets it apart is its non-custodial model — users can lend assets and earn interest while retaining full control of their private keys. At a time when centralized platforms are under scrutiny, this approach appeals to security-conscious users.
XpFinance is powered by a new token, XPF, which will be used for staking rewards, fee payments, and governance. The pre-sale of XPF has already begun and is generating buzz, especially among XRP community members eager to participate in the first major DeFi initiative on the ledger.
Market Outlook and Analyst Forecasts
Reactions from analysts have been positive. According to a report from DigitalMetrics, if both the CME futures and XpFinance platforms gain traction, XRP could see a sharp upward move — potentially reaching $10 by summer 2025. That would represent a fourfold increase from its current price.
However, risks remain. Ripple Labs continues to face regulatory pressure in the U.S., and crypto markets overall remain volatile. Still, the general tone has shifted. With increasing institutional interest and expanding utility, XRP appears to be entering a new phase of growth.
Conclusion
The combination of institutional infrastructure and decentralized finance innovation makes May 2025 a pivotal moment for XRP. If these initiatives succeed, XRP could transition from a mid-cap altcoin to a primary digital asset in the eyes of both institutional investors and the broader crypto community. Whether this momentum will translate into long-term market dominance remains to be seen — but the foundation is clearly being laid.
Inflation Adjusted Market Valuation since 2007 max liquidityHere's a loose estimation (using basic compound interest over time delta) of what the market would be worth with adjusted inflation if liquidity remained constant since 2007. Inflation adjusted value estimated through the yearly growth % of the market adjusted for inflation and averaged with general inflation trends from 2000-2025 at a ~85% inflation, year by year avg 85/25 = ~3.4%.
(hard to get exact numbers so include a +-10% error at a 90% confidence interval)
What does this tell us? We are above peak value of 520, in consideration of the stimulus being applied over time in buy backs and inflating the market over the last 15+ years, we have a high probability chance that we are at peak investment liquidity and upward movement can be delayed for the next 5-10 years in the form of a major correction to market valuation.
1 minute ago
Trade active
Inf Est since 2007 using adjusted 6.7% year by year inflation
Peak Yr 2007 2015 2020 2022 2025
M.Val 162 213 340 475 613
Inf Est 0 272 376 428 520
Why does the M. Val eventually exceed the Inflation Estimated Value?
Consider the buy backs from stimulus that entered the market after GFC.
1) In no way will they max out on buy backs immediately
2) Buy backs over time guarantee consistent upward market price movement
3) That stimulation is not included in the Inf Est
a. The Inflation Est is simply the max value in 2007 and its inflated relation today
b. The Inflation Est is a control value that only shows existing liquidity in market
At the time of 2007 excluding buy back stimulus event
GBP/CHF BULLS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|LONG
GBP/CHF SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 1.098
Target Level: 1.103
Stop Loss: 1.095
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
EUR/AUD BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are targeting the 1.742 level area with our short trade on EUR/AUD which is based on the fact that the pair is overbought on the BB band scale and is also approaching a resistance line above thus going us a good entry option.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Hidden Bullish Divergence +Hidden Bullish Divergence +
Closing above 298 is a +ve sign.
Immediate Support can be around 283 - 287.
Breaking 272 may bring more
selling pressure towards 246 - 250.
The World’s Financial PowerhousesMoney never sleeps — and in certain cities, it practically runs the show.
These financial capitals aren't just centers of wealth; they're the beating hearts of global finance, moving trillions every single day.
Today, let's take a quick tour through the cities that move markets, set trends, and shape economies.
🌍 1. New York City: The Global Titan
Nickname: The City That Never Sleeps
Key Institutions:
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)
NASDAQ
Wall Street banks (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley)
Why It Matters:
New York is the world's largest financial center by market cap, volume, and influence.
If you trade stocks, currencies, or commodities, you’re feeling New York’s pulse — even if you don’t realize it.
🔔 Trading Fact:
The NYSE alone handles over $20 trillion in listed market cap!
🌍 2. London: The Forex King
Nickname: The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street (referring to the Bank of England)
Key Institutions:
London Stock Exchange (LSE)
Bank of England
Hundreds of forex and investment firms
Why It Matters:
London is the epicenter of forex trading — commanding nearly 40% of the global forex market turnover.
Its time zone also bridges Asia and North America, making it crucial for liquidity during major sessions.
🔔 Trading Fact:
The 4 PM London Fix is a major reference point for institutional forex traders worldwide.
🌍 3. Tokyo: The Asian Anchor
Nickname: The Gateway to the East
Key Institutions:
Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE)
Bank of Japan (BOJ)
Why It Matters:
Tokyo sets the tone for Asian markets — and often for global risk appetite during the Asian session.
The Japanese yen (JPY) is the third most traded currency globally, often acting as a safe-haven barometer during market turmoil.
🔔 Trading Fact:
Japan is also home to massive institutional players known as the "Japanese real money accounts" — pension funds, insurers, and mega-banks.
🌍 4. Hong Kong & Singapore: The Dual Dragons
Nicknames:
Hong Kong: Asia’s World City
Singapore: The Lion City
Why They Matter:
Hong Kong: Gateway for global money flowing into China and emerging Asian markets.
Singapore: Major hub for forex trading, wealth management, and commodity trading.
Both cities are fiercely competitive, tech-driven, and strategically vital for accessing Asia’s fast-growing economies.
🔔 Trading Fact:
Singapore is now ranked among the top 3 global forex trading hubs, catching up fast to London and New York.
🌍 5. Zurich: The Quiet Giant
Nickname: The Bank Vault of Europe
Key Institutions:
Swiss National Bank (SNB)
Swiss private banking giants (UBS, Credit Suisse)
Why It Matters:
Zurich represents stability, security, and discretion. It's a powerhouse in private banking, wealth management, and gold trading.
The Swiss franc (CHF) is another classic safe-haven currency — and Zurich's influence is a big reason why.
🔔 Nerdy Fact:
Despite its small size, Switzerland punches way above its weight in forex and commodity markets.
🗺️ Why These Cities Matter to Your Trading
Liquidity:
Big cities = Big volumes = Tighter spreads and faster executions.
Market Movements:
Economic reports, policy decisions, and corporate news from these capitals can spark global volatility.
Session Overlaps:
New York–London overlap?
Tokyo–London handoff?
Understanding when these cities are active helps you time your trades better.
Final Thoughts :
You don't have to live in New York or Tokyo to trade like a pro.
But you do need to understand where the big moves are born.
Follow the money.
Watch the capitals.
Trade smarter.
Markets may seem chaotic — but behind the noise, the world’s financial capitals keep the rhythm steady.
put together by : @currencynerd as Pako Phutietsile
GOLD (XAUUSD): Trading Plan BEFORE FOMC
Gold bounced yesterday, as I predicted.
Today, we see a retest of a broken daily resistance
that turned into support after a breakout.
BEFORE FED Rate Decision today, there is another opportunity
to buy Gold:
I see a double bottom pattern on an hourly time frame.
Bullish violation of its neckline and an hourly candle close above
3394 will provide a strong intraday confirmation.
It will push the prices at least to 3429 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Lingrid | GOLD structure BREAKOUT. Potential BULLISH RallyThe price perfectly fulfilled my previous idea . OANDA:XAUUSD has broken out of a descending triangle and bearish channel, signaling a short-term reversal. After printing a Lower Low near the support area, price surged past the downward trendline and is now forming a consolidation above it. This suggests bullish strength, but a retest of the breakout level may occur before a continuation.
📌 Key Levels
Support Zone: 3,219 – 3,321
Breakout Target: 3,435
Invalidation Level: Below 3,219 (re-entry into previous bearish structure)
⚠️ Risks
Rejection near 3,435 or failure to hold above the trendline could trigger a correction.
Bearish divergence or strong resistance at 3,487 may cap upside.
Upcoming economic news (e.g., NFP, CPI) could lead to volatility.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Lingrid | AUDUSD bullish CONTINUATION PotentialFX:AUDUSD is currently respecting an upward trendline after bouncing off the local bottom. The pair broke out of the consolidation range and formed a higher high, signaling bullish continuation. A pullback is now testing the trendline and support zone — a bounce here could lead to a rally toward the upper resistance.
📌 Key Levels
Support Zone: 0.64391 – 0.64450
Breakout Target: 0.65000
Invalidation Level: 0.63934 (below trendline + structural break)
⚠️ Risks
Failure to hold the support zone could lead to a trendline break and deeper drop toward 0.63934.
Low liquidity or fakeouts near 0.65000 may trigger reversals.
Unexpected macro news may distort short-term technicals.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Hoping for the best.
Closing within this box (above 109000)
would be a relaxing sign. Inshaa ALLAH
& Closing above 111500 would be a
Healthy sign.
