Break of lower trendline, more downside momentum on DXY likelyThe US dollar index is at a turning point. For close to 6 months, this index has been in a converging symmetrical triangle that was playing out on the daily chart. During that time, many tests of both the upper and the lower bounds of the triangle have happened, but there was never an actual breakout. This has now changed.
On Friday, the DXY broke and closed below the lower trendline for the first time. It also broke the 5-month lows and it closed relatively strong to the downside. We need to see what happens next week, but my initial bet is that we might see more downside momentum. This would be in line with multiple setups I have added to my weekly watch list, where I also expect to see the dollar lose some strength. For more potential setups, have a look at my outlook for next week .
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Dollar_index
Stuck between 200 days MA line and a daily uptrend lineThe Dollar Index gapped down last week following the French Elections.
The price couldn't close above its 200 days MA line despite multiple attempts.
What stands between DXY and the next support zone (harmonic support zone shown at the chart) is the uptrend line that still holds as support.
Key Price Zone this week - 99$
A close above the 200 days MA line can send DXY back towards 100$ and the downtrend line.
A close below 99$ can send DXY to test the harmonic support zone (2 AB=CD patterns) near 97.5$
Read more about this analysis and other trading scenarios in my weekly newsletter - #WeeklyMarketsAnalysis on Twitter
DX to resume uptrend next weekAlthough I am a long term dollar bear, I think next week we see some upside. Maybe even new highs later this year. Daily divergence at a major support is what interests me in a long
Dollar Index Preparing Next BreakdownThe past days the Dollar Index has been touching the lower range, it lackek bullish momentum to bounce back up cancelin the 5th wave. ADX shows that the bearish trend is still strong while the Stoch Rsi still indicates strong sell pressure. Because of this we can assume that the Dollar Index will break-out of the lower range next week.
Possible targets 98 and 97. Please note that on allot of Dollar pairs you see setups against the dollar, so this alligns with the bearish setup on the Dollar index.
This is what you need to know before the elections results EURUSD is trading inside a yearly trading range.
There's a daily uptrend line that EURUSD is currently still above.. and from above it has a daily downtrend line and the middle of the range - 1.1 (Resistance Zone).
In case of a bullish move, focus on 1.1.
A breakout above this price zone could send EURUSD towards 1.14-1.115 again to re-test the top of the range
In case of a bearish move, a breakdown of the 1.04 support zone can lead EURUSD towards parity and even lower.
As long as it stays inside the range, you can try and trade the range
Dollar Index Bullish SetupThe dollar index made a nice bounce back up from the lower green range. The Stoch Rsi indicator shows a possible bullish crossover and the Adx indicator shows a very weak bearish trend meaning that its more then likely the bulls will take over.
Because of this I see the dollar gaining some strenght this week and the dollar index attacking and breaking 100. It's most likely that this will be fueled alot by the Usd gaininst most of its strenght against the Cad and Jpy (see my Jpy chart).
If you're less bullish than I am on the Dollar then you should wait till the lower range breaks (around 99.40) and then sell the Usd
The Kiwi Bulls AwakeWe have finally reached the golden zone for a buy. I mentioned reaching this area in my previous post. As the week went by we saw the Dollar Index decline and this pair was doing the exact opposite of what it was supposed to do. The bulls allowed the bears to slowly bring price down to the .69300 area. That is the perfect place for a long term buy. for now i expect the pair to show signs of a retracement, followed by a strong push up.
Place your buys in now cause we wont see the .70 zone for a while.
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DXY UpdateOn the Last DXY post we followed the wedge and shorted this. we have now arrived at the bottom and I suspect that we will start climbing our way back to about 101 level or until we hit the falling trend line.
Long term it seems that this will be DXY last rise to the upside. failure to break above the wedge will result in a large decline.
POST ANY THOUGHTS.
USDCAD Daily Level Short (Mar 28, 2017)Dollar bears have been appearing to hold the 1.34000 level on USDCAD with a big volume selloff on Mar 15th. I shorted a 50% retracement around 1.34200 and looking to target 1.30200 though we do have first support at 1.33000. Will look to cut risk around that level.
Reached a potential Sell ZoneI've mentioned this price zone in this week's newsletter and, as expected, EURUSD is already testing it on Monday morning.
1.085-1.1 is a weekly resistance zone that include:
1) 200 days MA line
2) Daily downtrend line
3) Weekly Structure
4) AB=CD pattern
Although it is a wide price zone, I think you should pay attention to it and look for intra-day bearish reversal patterns that will allow you to better time a bearish entry.
the 1.085 is this week's focus zone with the 200 days MA line that should act as resistance.