Looking to see if DXY re accumulatesLast week was definitely a lesson learned. This week working on my patience and really waiting for the market to show me direction, without marrying a bias.
Currently seeing DXY coming into the extreme of the trading range, understanding price can alway re accumulate at a previous are of accumulation. I want price to show me re accumulation before I start looking for price to continue higher.
If we don’t get clear re accumulation then either we sweep the low then accumulate, or just continue lower since price is coming in a bearish counter trend.
Dollarindex
DXY is Ready to Go UP🚀🏃♂️The DXY index is moving in the 🟢 Support zone($103.78_$102.93) 🟢 near the SMA(200) and 1 00_SMA(Weekly) .
🕯If we want to look at the last three daily candles of the DXY index from the candlestick pattern, we can see the reversal patterns of Hammer and Morning Star very well.
💡Also, another sign that shows us the end of the downward trend of the DXY index is the Falling Wedge Pattern in the RSI indicator .👇
🔔I expect the DXY index to trend higher in the coming days and attack the 🔴Resistance zone($105.88_$104.630)🔴 again.
U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, Daily frame⏰.
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$US10Y -Important Close *Weekly- US 10 Years Government Bonds(Yield) TVC:US10Y experienced a pull back in the fourth
week of August,
after having rallied previously for five (5) consecutive Weeks,
printing only green *W candlesticks.
The Weekly pullback retraced to a Weekly price level of 4.09% for $U10Y
(key level marked on dashed green line)
We can clearly see TVC:DXY being dragged higher as well during Yields uptrend
(indicating a weak and fearful state of other Major Financial Markets).
Seen on Weekly Timeframe, we can easily spot a triangle pattern being formed
on $US10Y.
Triangle Pattern's Apex can be stretched as far as 238Days from where it
currently is.
In case Pattern is violated to the downside,
a considerable Support-Resistance zone lays just underneath dating back
ever since 1912.
Below that would be the catching up dynamic support of 200EMA on the Weekly,
as well the support-trendline coming from Pandemic Lows.
TVC:US10Y uptrend resumption seems very likely from here,
especially after bouncing at the key level marked on dashed green line.
What is more important to be monitored is the correlation of TVC:DXY going higher
in the same time with TVC:US10Y .
That would be a nightmare scenario for an investor, and a golden opportunity
for those who are on the sidelines and waiting to be heavily invested
in diversification .
Monthly / Weekly / Daily OutlookThe following are my Conclusions on DXY:
Monthly Perspective
- DXY is Bullish
- DXY is retracing Lower to continue higher
- Stops below $89.5 are Safe
- Logical Targets upwards are $107.38, $114.778
Weekly Perspective
- DXY is Bullish
- DXY is retracing Lower to continue higher
- Stops below $99.5 are Safe
- Logical Targets upwards are $107.38, $107.993, $114.778
Daily Perspective
- DXY is Bearish
- DXY is going Lower
- Stops above $104.213 are safe
- Logical Targets downwards are $102.936, $101.742, $101.840, $99.578
Bonus: H4 Perspective
- DXY is Bearish
- DXY is going Lower
- Stops above $104.539 are safe
- Logical Targets downwards are $103.195
DXY (Dollar) Shorts from 103.300 down to 102.200This Weeks DXY bias is to expect another major move to the downside to continue its bearish trend that it has now set. To capitalise on this movement we will wait for a minor pull back up to a near unmitigated supply, (which will be the 9hr) to look for entries to get into this selling trend.
From this we will look for our usual wyckoff distribution to play out on the lower time frame and a CHOCH inside our POI to the enter our sell positions. I would love to see the asian high get swept as well because it will increase our confluence for a stronger sell bias. Overall I am temporarily bearish for the dollar and I expect price to keep dropping for the rest of this year.
Confluences for DXY (dollar) sells are as follows:
- Price is temprorarily bearish due to the perpetual BOS to the downside.
- There's still trend liquidity left to the downside that hasn't been taken.
- For price to react off next there is a demand zone below on the 4hr region.
- There is a clean supply 9hr that caused an impulsive to the downside.
- By the candle stick anatomy bearish candles are very strong holding lots of momentum.
P.S. I would ideally wait for this structure to break first before seeing the correction back up to the 9hr however, if price goes that low I see it continuing going down to reach our next demand. Which we will then anticipate a potential short term buy back up.
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DXY BEARISH OUTLOOKThe US dollar index (DXY) experienced a notable decline, hitting a two-month low at 103.6, following its sharpest weekly drop since July. This downward trajectory was fueled by weaker-than-expected inflation data, solidifying expectations that the Federal Reserve might refrain from raising interest rates, leading market sentiment to anticipate potential rate cuts. Despite dovish signals from Fed officials indicating a softer dollar, market pricing has yet to fully incorporate the possibility of the Fed reactivating tightening policies when necessary. The technical analysis suggests a bearish outlook for the dollar, with the breach of key support levels potentially targeting the 102.5 - 103 support zone.
Amidst these developments, the EUR/USD pair rose amid speculations of earlier Fed rate cuts and lower inflation in the Eurozone. Facing resistance at 1.093, it could either advance to 1.1 or decline to $1.083. USD/JPY retreated from pressure at 151, experiencing a sharp decline due to weak US data, though it remains within a rising channel. Gold prices displayed resilience around $1,930 and aim for $1,980; surpassing this level is crucial for further upward movement. While market anticipation of limited data supporting dollar demand persists, the OPEC's decision to cut oil supply amid declining oil prices may prompt short-term dollar purchases. Overall, the market outlook indicates a bearish trend for the US dollar, with pivotal resistance and support levels ahead for major currency pairs, and potential implications from the upcoming Fed meeting minutes.
On a technical note, both RSI and MACD are showing sell signals, further confirming the bearish sentiment for the instrument. If this trend continues, the price might reach levels of 101.68. As a pivot point might be considered 103.775, from where the price might reach resistance levels of 103.89
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DXY Elliot WaveUpon examining the Elliott Wave pattern for the DXY in a broader timeframe, it seems that the current phase aligns with the fourth wave. This phase could be characterized either as a zigzag or a WXY correction. Based on this interpretation, it's plausible to anticipate an initial upward trend leading towards the fifth wave, preceding a notable pullback in the index.
EUR USD IdeaIn recent weeks, our analysis pinpointed the monthly highest volume node, resulting in a retracement that brought the market back to this critical level. Looking ahead, the strategy is poised for a potential shift in the 4-hour chart, with a preference for a downward trajectory before considering a sell trade. The overarching goal is to capitalize on the downside momentum and target lower lows.
However, it's crucial to acknowledge the possibility of the chart entering a consolidation phase, given the strength of the order block observed on the monthly charts. This dynamic situation demands a keen eye on the market for potential scalping opportunities if favorable conditions present themselves.
Stay tuned Traders!
DXY (Dollar index) Longs to 104.000My bias for the dollar is bullish, as I am expecting a major pull back from this key level of demand that we have marked out on the daily time frame. As you can tell by the price action, bearish pressure is now getting exhausted so, we will be looking out for a wyckoff accumulation on the lower time frame to give us more confluence that this move will take place. As I don't personally trade the dollar, I will be using as it a sign to sell my other pairs.
As we know already if the dollar becomes bullish we will expect bearish pressure for pairs like GU, EU and gold, visa versa. In addition to this, the daily demand holds a lot of significance as it has broken structure to the upside and swept liquidity therefore, we can expect a nice reaction from this AOI to potentially mitigate the supply above or fill the imbalances that have been left.
My confluences for DXY$ Longs are as follows:
- Overall DXY market is still long term bullish even though we temporarily bearish.
- Price mitigated a strong level of demand on the (daily Time frame) that caused a BOS to the upside.
- Price tapped in very slowly and the candle sticks have less volume, indicating that the bearish pressure is now exhausted and price is now looking like it wants to reverse.
- Wyckoff accumulation has started to form very gradually on the lower timeframe.
- Theres lots of imbalances above to target as well as supply zones to mitigate in order for price to continue in its bearish trend.
- Price has also taken out a key level of engineering liquidity on the way down approaching the zone, so now price has enough liquidity to move the market back up.
P.S. I am still bearish but as price has tapped in a key level, my thoughts are to buy back up to the nearest supply in order for us to follow the dollar trend downwards. I will be waiting on what market does on Monday as I will be looking for imminent Sells for EU, GU and XAUUSD.
#DXY The dollar has reached the reversal zone#DXY
The dollar has reached the reversal zone (Harmonic Enlightenment pattern)
The decline prediction fails with a daily close above 108.14. Otherwise, we wait for the green targets
The "Butterfly" pattern is a technical analysis pattern used in trading, including cryptocurrency trading. It is a specific type of harmonic pattern that traders use to identify potential reversal points in the price of an asset. The Butterfly pattern is characterized by several price points that form specific geometric shapes on a price chart. Here's a brief explanation of the Butterfly Bearish Harmonic Pattern in crypto:
1. **Initial Move:** The pattern begins with a significant price move, which could be either an uptrend or a downtrend, depending on whether it's a bearish or bullish Butterfly pattern.
2. **X-A Leg:** This is the first leg of the pattern and represents the initial move's retracement. It's labeled as "X" and is usually the point where traders first identify the potential pattern.
3. **A-B Leg:** This leg is the next move in the opposite direction of the initial move, labeled as "A." It retraces a portion of the X-A leg.
4. **B-C Leg:** The B-C leg represents a move in the direction of the initial X-A leg and is labeled as "B."
5. **C-D Leg:** The final leg, labeled as "D," is the most critical part of the pattern. It extends beyond the X-A leg and typically ends near a Fibonacci extension level of 1.618 or 2.618 of the X-A leg.
The Bearish Butterfly pattern suggests a potential reversal to the downside. Traders look for this pattern to anticipate that the price may start declining after completing the D leg. It's important to note that not all identified patterns result in price reversals, so traders often use additional technical indicators and risk management strategies to make informed trading decisions.
Remember that cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and trading based solely on technical patterns carries risks. It's crucial to conduct thorough research and consider other factors before making trading decisions in the crypto market or any financial market.
DXY back to 105.400DXY index will go green again after testing 103.700 level this week.
Yesterday unfortunately dollar was red.
But probably it will go up again today.
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DXY 2 senario with detailhi dear trader
this price action for dxy with detail
It is near the end of the year, institutions want to put a stop to the money for the Christmas celebration and take it out now... be careful.... My personal opinion is that he may not pay attention to the conversation this year, but this year he will fill the conversation with news of a war with something, but in any case, two scenarios should be considered... My personal opinion is that he will complete scenario 1 later. From the diamond pattern
good luck
mehdi
DXY D1 - Short SignalDXY D1
This week, our perspective on the USD remains consistent with last week's analysis. The dollar demonstrated a bullish W1 close, while remaining firmly within the confines of the breakout and reversal structure on the lower timeframes (LTF).
The 106 resistance level continues to stand its ground, and we maintain an optimistic outlook for USD pairs this week, which includes XAUUSD. Anticipating further upside potential in the days ahead.
DXY - Intraday Analysis (ICT)My DXY interest for today.
Assuming the last dump was to trap shorts, with the confluence of trading into a Monthly Bisi and Monthly Breaker (Body) and New Month Opening Gap. I am interested to see if this can now move higher.
It also traded off a Daily Bisi then broke higher, again playing around a 4h Sibi, and now seems to be moving lower. There is a 1h Balanced Price Range inside a Breaker on this timeframe at OTE of that range. I would like to see it react off of there, go higher, use the 4h gap as support, then move higher to target an actual liquidity void above.
DXY$ Shorts from 105.800 down towards 105.200As expected our last week scenario (A) played out perfectly like we anticipated which was seeing a bullish reaction from the 4hr demand. For this week's bias we are still temporarily bearish with the dollar as it's approaching a clean 14hr supply zone. As soon as it gets tapped in I will be waiting for my lower time frame confirmation i.e. a Wyckoff distribution schematic and a clean CHOCH to the downside.
I would preferably wait for the asian high to get swept inside the zone before looking for a drop in the dollar index. I am bullish long term but, as price has broken structure a few times to the downside I would like to catch sells down towards the next demand at least.
My confluences for DXY$ Shorts are as follows:
- Price approaching a 14hr supply zone that has broken structure the downside.
- Imbalances have fully been filled and momentum has slowed down (good sign for a reversal)
- Huge trend line left way below that price would want to grab and theres also lots of liquidity below to target as take profit levels.
- In order for price to keep pushing up it will need to enter a level of demand, so as of now we will be trying to catch sells down towards a demand.
P.S. Only if my extreme 7hr supply zone gets violated, we will then know if price wants to continue in its bullish trend or not. But as of now I see price dropping more due to the perpetual BOS's. Also, as the dollar is a direct negative correlation to most of my pairs, the bias will suggest a bullish move to take place for EU, GU and gold If DXY$ decides to continue bearish.