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Fibonacci Retracement

EUR/JPY – High-Probability Short Setup 1️⃣ Market Overview – Bearish Bias Confirmation EUR/JPY remains in a strong downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. Currently, the price is retracing into a critical Fibonacci resistance zone, making this a prime opportunity to short the pair in line with institutional sentiment and seasonality trends. 2️⃣ Fibonacci Levels – Identifying Key Resistance The Fibonacci retracement is drawn from the most recent bearish impulse. Resistance Zone: 0.5 (156.888) to 0.786 (157.107) – a high-probability rejection area. If price fails to break above this zone, a continuation to the downside is expected. Prime Seasonality Insights – Historical Data Supports the Short Bias 📊 Seasonality trends over 15 years indicate that EUR/JPY historically declines in late February and early March. 🔻 February seasonality performance: -0.7% average return 🔻 Next 3-5 day forecast: Bearish probabilities (-0.06% to -0.21%) 🔻 Seasonality prediction candles show a short-term retracement, followed by downside continuation. 💡 This aligns with the technical setup, reinforcing a short bias. 4️⃣ Retail Sentiment – Smart Money Edge 🚨 79% of retail traders are LONG on EUR/JPY – a contrarian signal for a short trade. 🔻 Institutions (Smart Money) are aggressively shorting EUR/JPY, as seen in COT data. 🔻 Commitment of Traders (COT) Report shows increased institutional short positioning. 🔻 Retail traders trapped in longs will likely get stopped out, fueling further downside. 5️⃣ Technical Confirmation – Trendline & Indicators ✅ Price is below all major EMAs (6, 24, 72, 288) on the 4-hour chart. ✅ Supertrend remains bearish on the 4-hour timeframe. ✅ A downward sloping trendline aligns with the Fibonacci resistance zone. 💡 I will wait for confirmation (rejection wick, bearish engulfing candle) before entering a short position. 6️⃣ Conclusion – Trade Plan for EUR/JPY 🔹 Bias: Bearish due to downtrend, Fibonacci resistance, seasonality, and institutional short positioning. 🔹 Trade Setup: Sell EUR/JPY at 156.88 - 157.10 (Upon rejection) Stop Loss: Above 157.26 Take Profit Targets: 156.30, 156.04, 156.00 🔹 Key Confirmation: Retail traders are trapped in longs, seasonality supports further downside, and institutions are short. 🚀 This is a prime example of how combining Seasonality, Smart Money Positioning, and Technicals can create a powerful trade setup. 📌 What’s your outlook on EUR/JPY? Let’s discuss in the comments!
Short
by LDForex_
GOLD → Shaking. Going into flat. What's next?FX:XAUUSD is moving from a local bullish trend to a flat state. Bulls are still protecting strong risk zones. What to expect from the metal next? Investors are returning to safe-haven assets due to uncertainty over Trump's tariffs and weak U.S. economic data. Gold pulled back from a record $2,956 on Tuesday on profit taking and due to a drop in Chinese imports. However, a weak U.S. consumer confidence index helped the price recover. Gold's rise is being held back by a strengthening dollar and bond yields, but trade war fears are supporting demand for the metal Resistance levels: 2921, 2929, 2942 Support levels: 2905, 2888 Thus, we are forming a flat (sideways range). There is a possibility for a decline, for example, to retest the support 2905 - 2888 before further growth. Or growth and breakdown of resistance. If the bulls can enter the 2921-2929 zone and keep the defense above this zone, the metal may return to growth. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
7
EURUSD → Pre-break consolidation against 1.053FX:EURUSD continues to form bullish hints for a possible continuation of growth. There is strong resistance ahead and the market is forming a pre-breakdown consolidation The dollar continues its correction amid economic data, the country's politics and hints from Trump and Powell of a possible rate cut soon. The euro is benefiting from the dollar's decline, but how long will it last, especially amid the tariff war between the U.S. and Europe? Technically, at the moment, the chart indicates a bullish outlook. Within the local uptrend, an ascending triangle is forming, which generally indicates bullish interest in the market. The focus is on the pattern base - resistance at 1.053. Support levels: 1.045, 1.040 Resistance levels: 1.053 If the dollar continues its downward course, the currency pair has all chances to grow. A retest of the trend support (false breakout) before the resistance breakout is possible. Breakout and consolidation of the price above 1.053 may provoke growth. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
2
BITCOIN → Testing $88K - $90K. False or true breakdown?BINANCE:BTCUSD enters the risk zone and forms a false breakdown of the key support zone. All eyes are on the bulls, whether they can keep their defense on the market or not.... On D1 - W1 price in global consolidation after strong growth. The focus is on 90-91K, a zone that is a strong support for the global trend. A false breakout is forming at the moment. On the Local timeframe H1 - H4 the price is testing the local channel support, as well as the risk zone 89400. If the bulls can keep the defense above 89400 - 90K, bitcoin may strengthen. The primary target in this case could be 94K Support levels: 91280, 89400 Resistance levels: 94800, 99200 Statistically, the strongest dvjeniyas are formed after a false breakdown. But there is another question here, what kind of breakout will be - true or false. In our case, we need to wait for confirmation, namely, for the price to consolidate above the key zones and levels. Emphasis on 89400, 90000, 91300 Regards R. Linda!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by RLinda
18
GOLD → Bullish structure. Emphasis on 2955FX:XAUUSD is still in consolidation, but the flat is gradually changing into an ascending triangle structure, which further explains the bullish interest in the market. Gold price is consolidating near the record high of $2,956. Investors took a pause before a possible continuation of gains amid renewed trade war fears over Trump's statements on tariffs and controls on exports of Nvidia chips to China. Weak risk sentiment and a rising dollar are holding back gold, but lower bond yields and expectations of Fed policy easing are supporting prices. Gold will remain influenced by tariff negotiations and US consumer confidence data in the coming days Resistance levels: 2940, 2954.5 Support levels: 2930.7, 2921 Local resistance at 2940 is ahead. If the bulls are able to consolidate above this area, we should wait for the growth and the retest of 2954.5. 2954.5 is a trigger, the breakdown of which will provoke the continuation of the bull rally. But before that the consolidation between 2954 and 2940 may be formed. I don't exclude the flat support retest before further growth. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
11
GOLD → Price is in consolidation and getting ready to go to $3KFX:XAUUSD is preparing to continue its growth. Consolidation is forming against strong resistance. The dollar in the correction phase continues to update the lows.... Gold is consolidating near 2945-2955, remaining cautious due to Trump's tariff threats and waiting for US inflation data. Which technically increases the chances of continued gains. Optimism in the markets is supported by upcoming US-Russia talks on Ukraine, new Chinese measures and the victory of conservatives in Germany. Weak dollar and expectations of Fed rate cuts support gold, but rising risk appetite reduces its attractiveness Resistance levels: 2946.5, 2954.5 Support levels: 2935, 2921 Technically, the focus is on 2946.5. If the bulls are able to break this level, the resistance ahead at 2954.5 will not seem so strong. In this case, the price will continue its growth to 2969 - 3K But, before further growth, as gold is still in consolidation, the price may test the liquidity zone 2935 - 2921. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
17
BTC/USDT 1h chart reviewHello everyone, let's look at the 1H BTC chart to USDT, in this situation we can see how the price moves in the downward trend, the reflection from the downward trend line was currently visible. However, let's start by defining goals for the near future the price must face: T1 = 94661 $ T2 = 95162 $ Т3 = 95521 $ T4 = 95969 $ T5 = 97241 $ Let's go to Stop-Loss now in case of further declines on the market: SL1 = 93804 $ SL2 = 93279 $ SL3 = 92421 $ Looking at the RSI indicator, we see How we stay below the lower range of the range, which may potentially indicate the end of the current relaxation.
by cryptodailyuk
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Trade Setup – Potential Long Opportunity ChartChart Overview: A possible bullish retracement setup. The price has recently experienced a sharp decline, but a recovery is forming, suggesting a potential buying opportunity. Key Trading Zones: 🔹 Entry Zones: 1st Entry: Around 95,790 USD, where the price is currently consolidating. 2nd Entry: Near 97,150 USD, an intermediate resistance level. 3rd Entry: Close to 97,678 - 98,205 USD, marking a stronger resistance area. 🔹 Stop Loss: Placed above 99,000 USD to protect against further upside risk. Trade Plan: 📌 Entry Strategy: Buyers may step in near the current support zone (~95,790 USD) for a potential upside move. If the price breaks above the 97,150 USD level, a further rally toward 98,205 USD could occur. 📌 Target Levels: A possible short-term bullish retracement toward the entry zones (97,150 - 98,205 USD) before deciding further direction. 📌 Stop Loss Strategy: If price moves above 99,000 USD, it invalidates the short-term bearish scenario. Market Structure Analysis: ✅ Previous Strong Drop: Indicates sellers' control, but a retracement is expected. ✅ Potential Retracement Levels: Buyers may attempt to push BTC back into the entry zones. ✅ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: The trade setup suggests a favorable risk-reward balance if price follows the expected path. Final Thoughts: Watch for confirmation of a bullish retracement before entering. A break below 95,000 USD could invalidate the setup. Manage risk properly and adjust stop losses accordingly. 📈 Trade carefully and monitor market conditions! 🚀
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by PIPsOptimizer
LTC/USDTHello everyone, let's look at the 4H LTC chart to USDT, in this situation we can see how the price moves in the local high -ranking channel in which we quickly saw the return to the lower border of the channel. However, let's start by defining goals for the near future the price must face: T1 = $ 129 T2 = $ 132 Т3 = $ 138 Let's go to Stop-Loss now in case of further declines on the market: SL1 = $ 125 SL2 = $ 121 SL3 = $ 118 SL4 = $ 114 Looking at the RSI indicator, we see As we entered the lower part of the range again, which may indicate a new growth movement, but here you can see the city so that any correction deepens.
by cryptodailyuk
XRP/USDT 1D chart reviewHello everyone, let's look at the 1D XRP chart to USDT, in this situation we can see how the price moves under the downward trend line, but we can see some price stabilization, which can affect the potential change of trend. However, let's start by defining goals for the near future the price must face: T1 = $ 2.57 T2 = $ 2.39 Т3 = 2.15 $ T4 = 1.76 $ Let's go to Stop-Loss now in case of further declines on the market: SL1 = $ 2.77 SL2 = $ 3.07 SL3 = 3.40 $ The MacD indicator shows how we are still in the downward trend, but here you can see some stabilization, which may indicate an attempt to return to the upward trend.
by cryptodailyuk
1
BITCOIN → Price is in consolidation, but there are bullish signsBINANCE:BTCUSD broke resistance and gave a 4% momentum, it is not enough yet, but we have triggers and key zones. Price is still in consolidation, but it is likely that spring may be close. You may ask - why are there two scenarios here? Up↑ and down↓ (before growth) ? Well, the price is in consolidation and we have no clear assumptions in which direction the price will go. But we have key levels and zones, price behavior relative to them will tell us where the price will go. So, let's get to the bottom of it! Fundamentally , there is a small but important nuance: This week Trump said: “I am done with the war against cryptocurrencies”. Followed by almost $ 1bn dollars flowing into binance. Is someone getting ready for something?) 1) Technically, we have a trigger for further growth: $99000 - $99300 zone. If the bulls hold the price above the previously broken descending line, the price will head to attack the trigger in the medium term. A breakdown and price consolidation above 99K could trigger a rally. 2) But, chances of reaching 90-91K before rising are still high. If the price continues to test 94.8 - 95K and gradually push through this zone, everything will become obvious. In this case we will wait for a retest of 90K and further growth. Resistance levels: 99200, 102700 Support levels: 94800, 91280, 90К On the daily and weekly timeframe we can see that the price is forming a strong consolidation after a strong growth. Globally, this is a positive sign for a continuation of growth, but locally, inside the range, set-ups can be both short and long. Regards R. Linda!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by RLinda
36
GOLD → Retest of trend support before the NEWS FX:XAUUSD is forming a false breakdown of the lower boundary of consolidation and support of the uptrend within the correction. Traders are waiting for S&P Global PMI indices in the US. The gold price has rolled back from the record $2,955, but still retains chances for growth continuation. The decline is due to profit taking as traders prepare for the release of the S&P Global PMI indices in the US. The PMI data may affect the expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates. Nevertheless, a possible price drop on the back of strong PMI data could be short-lived if Trump's new tariff plans reignite demand for safe-haven assets. While gold may continue to correct, any drawdowns are likely to be seen as a near-term buying opportunity Resistance levels: 2933, 2939, 2946, 2955 Support levels: 2924, trend support A false breakdown of the uptrend support is forming. If the bulls hold their defenses above the key area, gold may continue its rise in the short to medium term. But, the short-term outlook depends on the news Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
7
USDJPY → Retest of key resistance before fallingFX:USDJPY breaks the bullish structure of the market. Dolla in the correction phase has a favorable impact on the market. The currency pair is forming a retest of the previously broken trendline after a strong impulse The yen reached a 10-week high on Thursday, causing the USDJPY pair to fall to 149.5. Investors are looking for safe-haven assets due to increased trade tensions caused by Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policy. The Japanese currency received additional support due to expectations of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, which will increase its attractiveness for investors For now, the focus is on the 0.5 fibo resistance zone, 150.95, and previously broken upside support Support levels: 149.5, 148.64 Resistance levels: 150.95, 151.4 Most likely, before a possible fall, the price will be able to test the previously broken support, and now it is resistance 150.95 - 151.4. False breakdown of the key Fibo zones may provoke further fall. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
2
OMUSDT → Flag (correction) before the rally BINANCE:OMUSDT still looks quite interesting. Consolidation in the flag format is forming within the bullish trend. The structure looks strong especially against the background of a weak altcoin market Bitcoin after Trump's speech yesterday was able to overcome local resistance and entered the buying zone. If the price can hold above 96.5 - 97K and continue its growth, some altcoins may have a bullish driver, which could push them up in general, including the already strong OMUSDT Technically, the focus is on the local descending flag channel, within which there are two key supports 7.324, 7.213. A false breakdown could trigger a continuation of the upside. Resistance levels: 7.755 Support levels: 7.324, 7.213 The trigger for growth continuation in our case is the channel border and resistance at 7.755. At the moment, we are still far from this zone and the coin is heading towards the support. A retest of the liquidity zone may end with a bullish impulse. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
8
LINK/USDT 1W chart ReviewHello everyone, let's look at the 1W link to USDT, in this situation we can see how the price moves under the downward trend line, but we can see some price stabilization, which can affect the potential change of trend. However, let's start by defining goals for the near future the price must face: T1 = 19.20 $ T2 = = $ 21.67 Т3 = $ 25 T4 = $ 27.65 Let's go to Stop-Loss now in case of further declines on the market: SL1 = $ 16.82 SL2 = $ 14.90 SL3 = 12.73 $ Looking at the RSI indicator, we see the descent below the lower limit of the range, which may also indicate
by cryptodailyuk
GOLD → Updated to the max. Growth may continueFX:XAUUSD updates its high to 2955, entering a clear zone where nothing prevents the price from continuing its rise. Economic risks and the dollar correction are still supporting the price of the metal Investors are seeking refuge in gold amid Trump's threats to impose another tariffs as early as next month. Markets remain under pressure due to a lack of support from China and tensions between the US and EU over peace talks with Russia without Ukraine. Although the Fed meeting minutes have gone unreported, investors remain focused on tariff negotiations, expecting gold prices to rise further amid market uncertainty Technically, the strong bullish trend and rally continues. Focus on key levels and local range 2955 - 2946 Resistance levels: 2955 Support levels: 2946, 2938 The price is pinned at 2955, the next trigger, the breakdown of which will provoke the continuation of growth. But before that the gold may test the support zone 2946 - 2938. The growth may continue after a false breakdown of support. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
5
GOLD → ATH Retest. High chance of breakout and growth to $3KFX:XAUUSD has again approached ATH 2938 - 2942. This yours increases the chance of resistance breakout and further growth. We are getting closer and closer to $3000 The market maintains recent gains as it awaits the release of minutes from the January Fed meeting and news of Trump's tariff plans. The US President threatened to impose duties on pharmaceuticals and chips, and confirmed the imposition of tariffs on automobiles from April 2, which strengthened demand for defensive assets. The lack of progress in peace talks between the US and Russia has also supported gold prices. However, traders are cautious ahead of the release of Fed minutes, which could cool expectations of rate cuts this year. Technically, all eyes are on the conglomerate resistance at 2938 - 2942. A breakdown and consolidation of the price above this area will provoke further growth Resistance levels: 2938, 2942 Support levels: 2924, 2915 Gold is in local pre-breakdown consolidation 2938 - 2924. Emphasis on these boundaries. Breakout and consolidation of the price above the resistance can provoke continuation of growth. But, before the growth the price may test the nearest support. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
23
EURJPY → Consolidation before further declineEURJPY is forming a downtrend. The price is bouncing off the channel resistance and has approached strong support, the breakout of which may trigger further decline Global EURJPY is in a neutral trend, but locally, due to economic nuances, the euro is weakening against the Japanese yen There are two key zones on the chart - resistance at 159.112 against which a false breakdown can be formed before the price continues its decline. And support at 158.45 - support of the pre-breakdown consolidation and at the same time a strong level, the break of which will open the way to 156.29. Resistance levels: 159.11, 160.16, 160.9 Support levels: 156.29 Technically, the situation is weak and hints that in the short term the bears could overcome the key support, which could trigger a bearish momentum Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
13