Microsoft - Correction Is Not Over Yet!Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) can still drop a little lower:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
It seems like the correction on Microsoft is not over yet and following previous price action and market structure, a move back to the previous triangle breakout level seems to be quite likely. However Microsoft still remains in an overall bullish market so looking for long setups is best.
Levels to watch: $350
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Microsoft
Microsoft risks shown in chartThe biggest stocks in the market, from the technology sector, tops on July 2024. Now they are showing some concerning data. The weak RSI and Fibonacci retracement levels perfectly match previous support and resistance levels. There are also other concerning factors.
Microsoft is showing a weak RSI in the latest move-ups. Maybe it needs to find liquidity in the 0.382 FIB level around 370$.
MICROSOFT Targeting $500 before the end of the year.Microsoft (MSFT) has made a new long-term bottom and recovered almost all of August's losses. That bottom is technically the Higher Low of the 20-month Channel Up that started in January 2023.
The price is currently consolidating below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and if broken, it will confirm the new Bullish Leg. In the previous (2) Bullish Legs of this Channel Up, the price tends to re-test the 1D MA50/100 cluster to confirm it as the new long-term Support after the break-out, so expect that to take place at some point.
Having though formed a new 1D MACD Bullish Cross, we can assume that this is already a safe level to buy for the long-term, as every Bullish Cross below 0.0 has technically been a confirmed buy level. Our Target for the end of the year is $500, which is still technically a 'modest' one as it is considerably below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which priced the March Higher High.
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MSFT / MICROSOFTMSFT (Microsoft Corporation) Stock Analysis:
Key Dates and Potential Market Movements:
1. August 23, 2024 - Potential Upside:
• Scenario: The chart suggests that Microsoft might experience a bullish phase around late August 2024. This could be driven by positive quarterly earnings, strong product launches, or renewed investor confidence in Microsoft’s cloud and AI strategies.
• Impact on Price: We may see Microsoft’s stock price rally, potentially revisiting previous highs around the $460-$470 mark.
• Reflection: As we witness the potential rise in Microsoft’s value, let us also reflect on the importance of placing our trust in both our investments and in a higher power that guides our steps.
2. November 11, 2024 - Potential Downside:
• Scenario: Moving into November 2024, the chart indicates a potential bearish trend. This could be attributed to broader market corrections, changes in global economic policies, or challenges within the tech sector.
• Impact on Price: Microsoft’s stock might face a pullback, potentially testing lower support levels around $380-$400.
• Reflection: In times of decline, whether in markets or in our personal lives, it’s our faith that provides stability. Just as we hold onto our investments during downturns, we should also hold onto our faith, trusting in recovery.
3. January 2, 2025 - Recovery and Consolidation:
• Scenario: By early 2025, Microsoft might enter a recovery phase, possibly driven by strong end-of-year performance, increased adoption of new technologies, or favorable market conditions.
• Impact on Price: This could lead to a stabilization or gradual increase in the stock price, with potential movements towards $420-$430.
• Reflection: As the new year begins, let this recovery remind us that perseverance through challenging times, with faith as our foundation, often leads to renewal and growth.
4. July 14, 2025 - Continued Growth or Consolidation:
• Scenario: The chart suggests that mid-2025 could either continue the growth trend or enter a consolidation phase, depending on market conditions and Microsoft’s performance in the first half of the year.
• Impact on Price: If positive momentum continues, we might see Microsoft’s stock breaking new highs; otherwise, the stock could trade sideways within the $420-$450 range.
• Reflection: As we navigate the complexities of the market, let us remember the words from Proverbs 16:3, “Commit to the Lord whatever you do, and He will establish your plans.” This verse encourages us to combine faith with our strategic planning.
5. November 8, 2027 - Long-Term Outlook:
• Scenario: Looking further ahead, the chart indicates significant potential shifts by late 2027. This could be influenced by global technological advancements, changes in leadership, or major economic events.
• Impact on Price: This period could mark either a major breakout for Microsoft or a significant correction, depending on the overall market environment and Microsoft’s adaptation to future trends.
• Reflection: As we plan for the long term, let us build our investments on solid foundations, just as we build our lives on faith. In doing so, we prepare for both the challenges and the opportunities that lie ahead.
Considerations for Investors:
• Technological Innovation: Microsoft’s ongoing advancements in AI, cloud computing, and enterprise solutions will be crucial drivers of its stock performance.
• Market Sentiment: Investor confidence in the tech sector, especially in established leaders like Microsoft, will play a significant role in price movements.
• Economic and Geopolitical Factors: Global events, such as trade policies, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic trends, could impact Microsoft’s performance.
As we approach these key dates, how do you plan to position your investments in Microsoft? Are you prepared to navigate both the potential ups and downs, relying not only on market analysis but also on a steady foundation of faith?
Microsoft Recovers 10% From Market Correction!Berkshire Hathaway has significantly cut its Apple investment, selling 505 million shares—a 55.8% reduction. This move reflects a major shift in its investment strategy, despite an 800% gain in its Apple shares since 2016.
The decision is influenced by multiple market factors, including a slowdown in Apple's revenue growth and a significant drop in smartphone demand, particularly impacted by shrinking markets in China and ongoing legal challenges, such as a U.S. Department of Justice antitrust lawsuit.
Despite these hurdles, Apple is pushing innovation, venturing into artificial intelligence and satellite connectivity, which could strengthen its market position and open new revenue streams.
Meanwhile, Apple's stock, after peaking at $237 in July and dropping to $200, has begun to recover, rising 10% since a post-earnings dip in early August, with a 12% year-to-date increase.
This volatility underscores the need for investor patience, given Apple's trend of prolonged growth phases interspersed with flat periods.
Microsoft crashing with the world markets $322 on the cardsInv C and H has formed on Microsoft.
We have seen a cosnsistent downtrend forming (Safety line).
And we have an uptrend (action line) that has broken.
So once price goes below 200MA, we could see a huge crash for Microsoft.
NATURE: Medium Probability due to:
Price<20
Price>200
Target 1 will be at $322.62
With Israels conflict exacerbating and with the interest rates staying put which is leading to less buying and more saving, we can continue to see world markets crash along with Crypto in the week coming.
Is MSFT Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?MSFT is one of the few tech stocks which trades close to all-time highs, seemingly oblivious to the brutal valuation reset that swept through the sector
In the most recent quarter, MSFT delivered strong results when factoring in the tough macro environment. MSFT grew revenues by 7% (10% constant currency) and earnings per share by 10% (14% constant currency) - two achievements not necessarily typically seen under difficult economic circumstances.
MSFT generated $8.64 billion of that operating income from its productivity and business processes segment, which houses its Office 365 product suite among others. As to be expected, LinkedIn revenue growth came in light at just 8%, a reflection of lower hiring demand.
MSFT generated another $9.4 billion in operating income from its intelligent cloud segment. Azure grew at a 27% clip, far surpassing the 16% growth seen at competitor Amazon Web Services
Investors have been cautious on the ever-valuable cloud business ever since the cloud titans all revealed cloud optimization efforts undertaken by its customers. On the conference call, management implied that they may see easing headwinds as they pass the anniversary of those optimization efforts, stating that “at some point, workloads just can't be optimized much further.” It is possible that MSFT’s partnership with ChatGPT’s creator OpenAI has something to do with that, as management noted that while they do not consolidate any operating losses due to them holding a minority equity interest, they do indeed recognize revenues generated from OpenAI using their cloud services. The other cloud titans did not offer the same bullish commentary surrounding the end of cloud optimization.
MSFT continued to see headwinds from its more personal computing segment, which saw revenues decline by 9% though still managed to generate $4.24 billion in operating income. At some point the comps should become easier here, but that may still be a couple of quarters away.
MSFT ended the quarter with $104.5 billion in cash versus $48.2 billion in debt. I note that the company also has another $9.4 billion in equity investments (the announced $10 billion investment in OpenAI is set to take place in parts throughout the year).
The company continues to pay a growing dividend and conducted $5.5 billion in share repurchases in the quarter. It is not too often that one can get long term innovation and have the majority of free cash flow returned to shareholders as well.
Looking ahead, management has noted that overall growth may struggle due to the prior year’s quarter being a tough comp, with that being their “largest commercial bookings quarter ever with a material volume of large multiyear commitments.” Management did, however, guide for up to 27% in Azure growth, which seems to imply that the bottom for that segment may be very near if not already passed. Investors may be worried about how ongoing tech layoffs may impact Office 365 growth, but management appeared unfazed by this risk, citing that they continue to see strong demand for their product suites.
MSFT continues to show why it is a favorite tech stock in growth allocations, as it has shown resilient growth in the face of tough macro. The strong fundamentals have helped the stock sustain a premium valuation multiple, as the stock recently traded hands at just under 35x earnings.
Valuation remains the most obvious risk with that stock trading something between 50% and 100% higher than GOOGL depending on how many adjustments applied to the latter. With the stock trading so richly on present earnings, the stock could go nowhere for 7-10 years and still be trading at around 15x earnings at that time. Unless MSFT manages to sustain double-digit earnings longer than consensus, the stock will likely need to sustain a rich multiple in order to beat the market index. I note that this risk does not appear as large at the aforementioned mega-cap peers due to not just lower valuations but also due to MSFT appearing to already be operationally efficient with operating margins in excess of 40%. Another risk is that of potential disruption to its enterprise tech business. Wall Street appears to view the stock as being the strongest operator in any of its competing markets, but I do not share such views. In particular, I view competition from the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD),and GOOGL’s productivity suite as being underestimated risks. It is possible that MSFT is about to face long- term disruption just as its growth story is decelerating - which would have a catastrophic impact on multiples. Due to the near term upside from OpenAI, MSFT hit ATH and now its in pullback mode, I took huge profit and waiting for more confirmation
THE FREAKY SEVEN IS SET TO CONTINUE ITS CHEMICAL TRIP. SOON...US stock indexes closed mixed on Monday as investors awaited a massive wave of data this week.
171 companies within the S&P 500 are set to report their second-quarter earnings results this week, and expectations are high given the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) 16% year-to-date rally.
Some of the biggest companies including Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon will report results this week.
I won't sing you lullabies about expected numbers.
The major technical graph indicates that 50-Day SMA already done & fully retested.
The next one chase is IXIC 125-Day SMA & all the way below, as much as it possible.
Microsoft Earnings Raise Fears Over AI Spending. Bubble Go Pop?Playing catch-up is big among the highflyers of technology as the Magnificent Seven club races to slurp up AI demand. But is AI spending going to lead to AI bonanza? It’s not that straightforward.
Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ) reported its earnings update for the spring quarter Tuesday after the closing bell. But it failed to appease investors who seem to be waking up to a reality where the billions of dollars jammed into artificial intelligence might not that easily convert into coveted profits.
The AI-optimistic large-cap behemoth has spent piles of cash on advancing its artificial-intelligence capabilities without much to show for it. Markets punished the stock in after-hours trading with shares diving as deep as 8% — a drop that later recovered but still lingered under the flatline.
“Throw Some AI in There, They’ll Love It”
You know how much CEOs love to throw AI in their earnings calls? Microsoft boss Satya Nadella praised the company’s AI efforts in the call with shareholders but even the overuse of AI couldn’t bring the feelgood factor.
Microsoft’s AI-powered cloud business, Azure, grew 29% in the three months to June, falling short of expectations and undershooting the 31% growth in the previous quarter. The company rushed to patch it up and assuage spooked investors, saying the slowdown was due in part to demand for AI running ahead of capacity.
Microsoft: Throws $55.7 billion in capital expenditures.
AI: * giggles, burps * "Thanks for the cash."
For the past three months — the company’s fiscal fourth quarter — Microsoft saw its capital expenditures balloon by almost 80% year-over-year to $19 billion. Moreover, for fiscal 2024, total capital expenditures, or how much the company spent on new stuff, hit $55.7 billion — a figure that is likely to get surpassed next year as Microsoft projects increased spending on AI.
Microsoft’s quarterly results are the latest example, after Google’s (ticker: GOOGL ) flop of an earnings report and Tesla’s (ticker: TSLA ) profit-squeezing quarter , of Big Tech’s lofty aspirations when it comes to AI. And the pushback reaction from investors shows that expectations are so high, it’s near-impossible to beat them.
Big Tech is racing to build out the infrastructure layer that will allow AI to scale so it can start churning out a profit. But the going has recently gotten tough. The Magnificent Seven club of tech mainstays washed out more than $1.5 trillion from its collective market value in the past three weeks.
The question that lingers on investors’ minds right now is how long can markets stay patient before they see revenue growth from AI materialize?
Let Us Know Your Thoughts!
With all the hype around AI, do you see a bubble in the works? Or justified no-froth, no-nonsense valuations? Share your thoughts below!
$MSFT ending diagonal? Lower prices ahead?I was long calls of NASDAQ:MSFT into this morning and took profits in the first couple hours of trading.
I initially thought we would see a move higher to the upper resistance at $455 or potentially as high as $465, but price couldn't break that $453 level.
After relooking at the chart, it looks like we're forming an ending diagonal. If we break down from here, I could see a large corrective move back down to that $397 or $370 support level (or potentially to the lower support levels). The risk of downside was not worth the potential $2 gain from here.
There's still a chance that we break higher and tag that upper resistance, but there are signs of weakness showing on the chart to me.
We should see what direction we move by the end of the week. Decision time.
MSFT Microsoft Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven't entered MSFT when they bought a stake in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MSFT Microsoft Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 460usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-11-15,
for a premium of approximately $13.05.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Crowdstrike May Signal Stock Market Top But Crypto Trump Pump!Traders,
I tried very hard to upload a video to the TV platform today but was unsuccessful. It may be that TV is also affected in some ways by the Crowdstrike update, I don't know? Needless to say, my video will not be shown here and due to house rules I am unable to say where you might find it or if it is even available. So, in keeping with those rules, I will only give the written preview of what the video will be when/if I can eventually upload to Tradingview. Sorry for the inconvenience. Here is my prelude to the video that I made for this post.
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To help us understand the broad, over-arching view and where our economy may be headed, both in the U.S. and abroad, we must sometimes tackle some subject matter that appears to be political on the surface and makes some people rather uncomfortable. But if we are going to be accurate traders, then we also need to be honest. Being honest involves setting aside our political dogma and preferences and viewing current events with as little bias as possible. Removing bias involves removing emotion. Let's attempt to do that today as I dive in with a closer inspection of the Crowdstrike-caused Microsoft BSoD outage and discuss Trump's recent assassination attempt. We are going to cover how each of these recent events has impacted the stock market and our crypto space. If this subject matter makes you uncomfortable, you may want to skip this video. I'm cutting straight to the chase here and I'll explain why it matters. You see, I learned the hard way a long time ago that if you want to make money in this market then you have to understand what the world rulers are up to and what their end game might be. It's often uncomfortable to explore motives here because they appear to be so uncompassionate, calloused, and uncaring, but we must put them on the table as options at least if we are going to determine market direction and become the best traders that we can be. Following the money and potential motives of the deep state(s) can help us win. This is what we'll do a bit of in today's video. Enjoy.
Go Long, Go Wealth (Microsoft)Microsoft made a significant move today. Based on my analysis, the price is expected to retrace to either the $438 or $429 level.
I anticipate that the price will stabilize at one of these levels before a potential reversal occurs.
Although I am not directly trading MSFT, I have invested in SPUS, which is following a similar trajectory.
Tesla : Approaching Key Resistance Level After Strong RallyBy analyzing #Tesla 's stock chart, we observe that after hitting the first bearish target last time, the price rose again. However, this time, the price did not drop from that level as we expected. Instead, it managed to rise powerfully to $260! Currently, Tesla is near a significant resistance level, and we need to wait for the initial reaction to this level. This analysis will be updated!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Will Tesla Double in Price This Year, Obliterate Bill GatesIt's gone a week or so, since Elon Musk gave Bill Gates advance warning last Tuesday not to truffle with him again. The Microsoft cofounder faces annihilation if he makes any further attempt to bet against Tesla.
That’s because Musk believes he will have transformed the carmaker into an AI colossus worth a staggering $30 trillion as soon as Tesla completes its pivot from selling EVs first and foremost to operating a lucrative fleet of robo-taxis and humanoid robots.
“Once Tesla fully solves autonomy and has Optimus in volume production, anyone still holding a short position will be obliterated,” he posted to social media on Tuesday. “Even Gates.”
Indeed Tesla stocks recently jumped, erased all the 2024Y losses, to print new 6Mo highs. 52-weeks SMA has been passed through also, while Daily RSI(14) skyrocketed to 85+ area.
Tesla is Dressed To The Nines.
This English idiom meaning “The highest degree of perfection.” Literally, the idiom means “Dressed like a brand new man.”
Btw, in financial circles, this is how they speak about assets after a Super Combo rally of continuous growth in shares or indices , after nine consecutive growing bars in a row (daily, weekly, monthly time frames).
That’s exactly how many (nine) daily growth bars in a row were recorded on the eve of July 8, 2024 in Tesla shares.
In nowadays even Tesla printed not 9-day but even 10-day winning streak, with the stock soaring 44% over the period. Prior to the rebound, shares were down 27% year-to-date, but they're now back in positive territory for the year, up nearly 6%.
And it marked the second biggest combo rally in Tesla shares after May-June 2023, when the stock rose continuously for 13 (!) trading sessions in a row.
It is worth to note that last time, after reaching “The Super Combo” in Tesla shares, Up/Down price deviations over the next 12 months were approximately equal, approximately 30-35 percent in each direction.
Who knows, how many extra days will last this series right now, and where this soap opera ends.
It's clear Mr. Elon wants to zap investors stress fast.
Microsoft following the tech footsteps or major upside to $571.8W Formation formed on Microsoft. The price broke up and out of the formation and now it's heading on up.
We see a similar trend with Apple and the Nasdaq so they are all following suites.
NATURE: High Probability
Price>20
Price>200
Target $571.86
MICROSOFT $450 Target hit. Potential consolidation ahead.Microsoft (MSFT) easily hit our $450.00 medium-term Target that we called on our last signal (May 01, see chart below):
That call came on the most optimal buy entry, with the price right at the bottom of the 18-month Channel Up. The symmetry between the pattern's Legs is very high and based on the previous Bullish Leg (dotted Channel Up), we should now get a medium-term consolidation to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then resume the uptrend.
The Higher High was priced just above the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level. As a result, our next Target is $480.
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MSFT / Microsoft Idea I.Hey guys,
Yearly chart: Bullish Eng.
--> Strong Resistance at 449 and 522
--> This is the first point where some Profit taking could come.
Quarterly: Bullish - although gains are weak compared to the months before.
Monthly: Bullish Candle
--> Stochastic bearish Divergence
--> Bullish Trendline intact
3D: Ascending Triangle Formation
--> break above would be extremely bullish because Bears are meant to take over.
Target Bulls: 485 - 582
Target bears: 410 - 388
Thanks for reading…
Microsoft MSFT - Almost back at All-Time HighsOne confirmation that the market is in recovery: Major stocks, such as Microsoft, are approaching All-time High levels again. MSFT has been trending upward above the 50 and 200 Day EMAa for several weeks. While others are talking doom and gloom for the markets, you have evidence that they missed the bottom and are only hoping for a second chance. Of course fundamentals always trump technicals. Anything can happen. Fed rate hikes with the debt ceiling looming could result in the perfect storm. Setting all of that aside, the technicals say we are going to the moon. So, put on your space suit rocket man.
$msft could trigger nq bearish cascadeNASDAQ:MSFT and $appl both look very similar to me, with a potential swing top forming.
NASDAQ:MSFT has been held up with the rate inflation narrative that pump the mag 7 and now it's connection with OpenAI. The market has signaled a broadening over the last 6 months or so, with most of the remaining opportunity centered around value stocks. If this isn't the swing top for msft, it's very close. once appl and msft go, it will likely signal the swing tops across the market.
TSLA : Big Resistance Ahead ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #Tesla stock chart, we can see that the price has once again reached the supply zone at $185 and has been unsuccessful in breaking through the resistance. For this reason, our previous analysis remains valid. We need to see when this decline will finally start! The supply zone is between $191 and $206, and the bearish targets for this stock are $168, $153, and $139 respectively.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Why Nvidia’s Monster $3T Valuation Poses a Threat to S&P 500Too fast Nvidia climbed the ladder of success and now the broad-based S&P 500 is at risk of getting sucked into a crisis if the chip giant were to trigger it.
Nvidia Value Takes Up 7% of S&P 500
Is Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ), the massive chip company, too big to fail? Shares of the juggernaut in the AI space have soared more than 160% this year and they show no signs of slowing down. That’s all great news for traders who enjoy the daily volatility and love watching billions of dollars slosh around as markets try to figure out Nvidia’s worth.
What markets have agreed on so far is that Nvidia is worth more than $3.2 trillion. The lofty price tag, however, comes with certain dangers. One such danger is that Nvidia makes up about 7% of the S&P 500. The broad-based Wall Street darling, packaged with 500 public companies , is valued at $46 trillion.
The danger isn’t too obvious now for obvious reasons. Nvidia is yet to give back (if it ever does, right?) some of its formidable gains. But there are signs already. Last Friday, this ratio of 93:7 tipped the S&P 500 into a loss just because the hulking size of Nvidia was too much weight on the stock index.
And because the markets aren’t allowing any breathing room and shares are always on fire, we can’t know the impact a crash in Nvidia could have on the S&P 500. But since the pendulum swings both ways, it pays to be prepared.
The Big Three’s Massive Weight
The tech-focused concentration of the S&P 500 doesn’t end with Nvidia. The two other companies that are also worth over $3 trillion each have the same weight on the equity benchmark.
Add Apple (ticker: AAPL ) and Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ) next to the AI chip maker and you’ve got a nice 21% chunk of the S&P 500 concentrated in three companies. In other words, that’s more than $10 trillion of valuation in total and it dominates the large-cap rankings .
What’s the common ground between all three? AI, more or less, with Apple playing catch up pretty fast.
“Why not pick on Apple then, if it’s the same market value?” Apple brings home more than $380 billion in revenue a year while Nvidia can only do $60 billion . Moreover, the iPhone maker has 2.5 times Nvidia’s trailing 12-month free cash flow.
Doomsday Scenario
A possible doomsday scenario in the artificial intelligence corner, every permabear will tell you, can trigger a rude awakening for investors and strip those giants off their record high valuations.
They actually had a moment of victory, although a brief one. In April, Nvidia endured its biggest drop since its recognition as the purest AI play out there. Shares erased more than 10% in the span of a few days. But before permabears had a chance to sip at their mezcal espresso martini and call it a day, Nvidia had bolted past the losses and into fresh record territory.
These days, it’s largely the same few stocks pumping and driving the gains across the indexes. That doesn’t sound like much of a diversification — the narrative pushed by passive investors who choose to shove some money into an index and do nothing. If the S&P 500 served as a diversification vehicle in the past, it certainly doesn’t look like it today.
Your Thoughts?
Will we see the AI bubble burst like the dot-com bubble of the 2000s? Or will Nvidia continue lifting the sea of stocks? Leave your thoughts below.