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The Dimon Bottom Hype Is OverCNBC has loved to refer the recent pullback in the SPX as the "Dimon Bottom" because CEO Jamie Dimon purchased roughly $26 million worth of JPM shares. However, it's not looking for those wanting to hold to believe in the recovery dream. Whether investors want to believe it or not, the U.S. economic cycle is rolling over; and, considering the very high correlation to the SPX, J.P. Morgan shares will unlikely be saved. Since 2014, I been warning of potential headwinds from energy exposure in U.S. banks. It may not cripple the sixth-largest bank in the world, but death by 1,000 cuts won't be any better for shareholders. On Tuesday, JPM reported a 20 percent decline in trading revenues, as well as a $500 million increase in provisions (up 60 percent) due to their energy exposure. Fee revenues were down 25 percent. Technically, the weekly chart is showing more downside is to come. Traders are watching a 20-weekly bearish convergence with the 50- and 72-weekly EMA. Price action is, also, currently below the 200-weekly EMA. The inability to show support above this level and challenge $59.60 could poise further stress on shares. Near-term, we'll see price action test the trend/price demand between $52.30-$53.50. A close below $52.30 would open up $48.3 and trend lower to $43.74. If looking at Fib. retracements, a close underneath Aug 24, 2015 Black Monday low, 1.618 Fib. extension would stand at $37.54. This would be my target for Q2-17. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
NYSE:JPM
by CommoditiesTrader
Brent Near-Term OutlookBrent crude has been able to rally on little volume during the U.S. banking holiday and rumors surrounding a potential unified OPEC production cut, issued by the UAE energy minister just as WTI was carving out a 12 year low (and in the middle of the night, local time, no less.) Four days later, there has been no new reports of said production cut proposal, but something interesting has been reported by Charles Kennedy at Oilprice.com - " UAE Offers India Free Oil To Ease Storage Woes ." There is still no reason why OPEC would cut production now given the distress its tactics are already causing in the U.S. shale space. To cave in now, OPEC's squeeze on U.S. shale would be a failure and U.S. shale would be a beneficiary. The same UAE that sparked the latest crude short-squeeze has so much oil, it's bribing India with free oil in order to access a underground Indian storage facility to park abundant reserves. Go figure. Despite OPEC's true unwillingness to cut production, the technical outlook for Brent could prove positive unless risk sentiment is turned off. Currently testing price resistance at $33.81, Brent crude has found support at two key weekly support levels: $27.83 and $31.59. The ADX is showing a lack of momentum in the current move, but +/- DMI could, potentially, have a bullish convergence. The growing tensions between Saudi, Turkey and Syria could reignite risk premium, but many analysts have suggest that any substantial premium is unlikely due to the current supply glut. Even so, resistance at the 50-day EMA coincides with a minor downtrend. However, a break north could test $38.46 to $40.34. If price breaks down, Brent could easily retest $27.83, while more talk of not cutting production would send the international benchmark to $22.98. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
C
by CommoditiesTrader
Crude Technical OutlookCrude started the new year with volatility, as prices initially rebounded into price resistance near $38/bbl on geopolitical tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. However, the rally was short-lived and there looks to be no follow through in today's session. There are a few key factors to take into account: slow global growth, a decline in global demand growth and a supported dollar. As posted here and here , near-term resistance is near $38/bbl which has been tested and failed twice in the last two days. Technical breadth still remains negative, and the lower have of the demand zone is the next area of support between $33-34/bbl. If the bottom of the range breaks, $27 is open for the taking. As mentioned in August : "On a market technician's viewpoint, if fundamentals do not shape up quick with support from consumption economies, like the U.S. and China, crude could break 2009's low of $33.20 per barrel. I also expect the dollar to continue to rise, increasing deflationary pressure throughout 2016. Price support is currently $42.02, just $2.22 per barrel less from where it is trading today. 2008's high of $147.27 per barrel creates a "V" shaped support and resistance price channel, which will likely hold prices. If prices break through this key support level, selling could amplify if there is no catalyst to bring prices back north. A "demand" zone - an area where confirmed buying took place - between $38.34 and $34.04 will be the last line of defense for crude prices. A close below this level, and a target of $27.14 per barrel is initiated." Take it back further to last February : "A bottom in crude will be formed when a series of indicators and data show confluence." "Growth has been lacking, and it is concerning that China – the largest consumer of oil – is showing real signs of trouble. GDP recently hit two decade lows, and the most recent import/export data is troubling. China saw a 3.3 percent decline in exports and a whopping 19.9 percent decline in imports YoY, the worst since 2009. It was was 16 percent lower than the general consensus. There is also disinflation. Whether it is in the US, Eurozone, or China, prices for commodities will remain low. Crude is no exception. A bottom in crude will not likely begin until fundamentals mingle with price action. Inventory builds of 5, 6, 10 million barrels per week will not help the case for higher prices, and oil companies could be forced to further slash rigs, jobs and CAPEX. And considering the deteriorating economic data, more so in the US, 2008’s low could be retested." If bulls could retake momentum, upside potential could reside at $42.75 and, potentially, $48.55. The situation remains dynamic as an unexpected production cut from a large producer could spark huge short-covering (unlikely to change long-term sentiment). Although, OPEC and Russia look to remain active, while production in the US is still near historical highs . Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
NYMEX:CL1!
by CommoditiesTrader
21
MACRO VIEW: WTI OIL UPDATE: BREAKDOWN FROM THE RANEFollowing the OPEC decision to avoid cutting their oil production, WTI Oil has again broken down from its relevant range border, this time it looks like for good. Price is now significantly below both 1-year and 1-quater distribution, trading above below 1st standard deviations from 1-year and 1-quarter mean - signaling more downside probability. The move will be fully confirmed by WTI Oil breaking below its 2015 low at 37.70 (lowest point since 2008/9 crisis)
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Killy_Mel
3
OPEC to continue selling on strengthIn this chart we can see a pause in the decline, probably induced by short covering in a massive scale. Despite this new-found bullish strength, oil indicates it wants to resume the downtrend anytime soon, by displaying a flag pattern, for geometric chart pattern traders, weak bar closes and attempts at extending the range upwards being met with strong selling and decreasing volume on rallies. Tim West's indicators point to a bearish bias, with the range expansion volume bars showing only red bars. Rgmov is currently ranging but any breakout of the last new low in this indicator will probably lead and confirm the short. It's clear to me that the technicals in this chart indicate the best risk/reward will be offered by short positions, with an invalidation level on a clear breach of the white line in the chart, and a target at 50.25 initially. Good luck to all traders, and enjoy the cheap gas while it lasts. Cheers, Ivan.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IvanLabrie
3
UKOIL Bearish Flag and Pessimistic OPEC Expectations (June 5th)UPDATE: Closed at 61.50 EDIT -- ZOOM OUT TO SEE FLAG, take no notice of the Harmonic Pattern This is a clear bearish flag, no doubt about it. Been rebounding in the channel since the start of Jan2015. A break of the lower part of the channel could signal a further fall continuation to previous Supports/Resistances of 54.58, 52.17 and more severely, the Jan low of 45.56. We've also got Feb 2009 Supports of 39. Psycological levels of course 60, 55 (based off of confluence see rectangle Feb 2015), 50, 40 and so on. Stops @ 66.10 Reason for this is that I'm not aiming for "a trade" where my Risk/Reward would usually be 1:1 More of a long term target with a short-term stop On the Fundamental Side this is relating to USOil Price Action, but the underlying idea is the same Seeing that after the November 27th meeting, when OPEC decided not to cut production, Oil ended up plummeting ~$30. A couple of weeks ago, the OPEC Head, or the Iranian/Saudi Oil Minister, i can’t remember which one, said that it is highly unlikely that we’ll ever see oil at $100 again. With that in mind, seeing that Oil is now flirting around the $60 handle, any decision to cut production on June 5th, could send Oil a great deal higher, maybe ~$20-$30. Therefore, that being the case, it seems extremely plausible that OPEC do end up sticking to the status quo. In which case, hello $40 again. Fully welcome any ideas to prove me wrong/different viewpoints.
FX:UKOILShort
by petermp25
2
USOIL: Bullish signalsDowntrend failure inminent, I suspect the OPEC meeting outcome will seal the dollar and crude oil's fate here. Analysis on chart, we have what looks like the beginning of a fifth wave here, after the current daily downtrend signal was reached ahead of time. Price is about to cross above the mode after two strong daily bars, where buyers were in control. I'm tempted to declare this as the start of a strong uptrend, but for now, the targets are on the chart. This is very bullish for the Euro and bearish for the Dollar accross the board. Cheers, Ivan.
FX:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
15
Crude Cuts Up LongsI haven't posted about crude in a few weeks because the fundamentals and technicals simply have told the same story over and over again. Bulls get bullish because A) they believe the global economic growth falacy or B) it's so oversold it must go higher. My charts did not change, and, yes, it has played out well technically to the downside. It is ever closer to the $42.13 longer-term trend line (purple dotted line). OPEC... or Saudi Arabia, rather, will continue to put the big hurt on US shale plays. The EIA crude inventory report shown a surplus of 8.9 million barrels, following a increase of 10.1 million barrels the following month. The API data was even more bearish, suggesting an increase of over 12 million barrels. US shale companies will continue to pump, even as rigs fall to multi-year lows. Even given the 120+ days of declining gas prices, demand is still not there. Potential long accumulation could be interesting in low $42, perhaps lower. However, $80/90 barrel oil is not even going to be possible. $55/60 seems more realistic.
NYMEX:CL1!
by CommoditiesTrader
4
FLY THE FRIENDLY SKIES?The price of oil has been sliding in the second half of 2014, but airlines have not lowered their prices. Or brought back free meals. Or allowed domestic customers to check in luggage free of charge. So how can one turn flying friendly? Perhaps by purchasing U.S. airline stocks. The cost of oil has plunged nearly 48% since the end of June and the market remains stuck in one direction. OPEC nations might make less profit and Russia, Iran and Iraq might be faced with significant economic and social issues. However, individual customers should be in the winning column. Customers have not fully benefited from oil’s collapse. While gas is cheaper at the pump, food, clothes and airline tickets haven’t declined appreciably. Since these companies will not pass on even some of their profits to customers, then customers will need to extract benefits on their own. U.S. airline stocks such as American Airlines (AAL) and Delta (DAL) have been surging since October 10, as they became easy choices for investors and short-term speculators. These stocks have been moving in the opposite direction than oil (CL1!) and they will remain in demand for as long as oil will be cratering. The four-week correlation between oil and American Airlines is near perfect high negative levels. It rarely drops below -.8, and then the correlation doesn’t last more than a few weeks. Things have changed — the high negative correlation has been in place for 1 ½ months. Only a bounce of the four-week correlation above -.8 would suggest profit taking on American Airlines and Delta.
NYMEX:CL1!
by charttrader
9
GBPCAD Trade IdeaIt would appear that this is the second time pair is bouncing up from below 1.76 which is now determined to be very strong support. As with the last price action it then moved up above 1.8. Looking at the MACD, we can see that there is consolidation and a cross over about to occur. I think within the next candle we should know if this is a buy opportunity. Only consider buying if the price enters the support and resistance zone. Although the crude oil price/canadian dollar correlation has loosened, I would still think a strong move higher will happen if OPEC does not cut production.
by maccabean