Parallel Channel
Gold - Starting A Major -25% Correction!Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) is starting to reject resistance:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After rallying an incredible +35% during 2024, Gold is now (finally) starting to show some expected weakness at a major resistance trendline. Following this quite significant overextension, it is quite likely that we will see at least a short term bearish correction now.
Levels to watch: $2.700, $2.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
ETH over the last year and now todayI wanted to zoom out of the chart that I provided yesterday identifying this potential for buying the dip. We did break down through bottom of ascending channel for just a fast wick but it likely indicates we are breaking out of this ascension. As you see there is a lot of potential for a sideways channel here at the top of the larger (slightly descending) sideways channel, here we could consolidate in the top third of the channel and then build up the courage to try to break out of top of this year long channel again, or break down and potentially trace all the way back to bottom of channel which as you see is as low as $2200. If we break that $3500 support, I will become short term bearish. Market has been strong though so good chance we maintain top of channel and try to break out again in the near future.
IMO daily candle charts are the most important and reliable charts. I do like 4 hour candles as they are more granular for seeing trends and are pretty close to as reliable and I often look at 1 hour candles for a pulse on the now but generally speaking, the shorter candle you use, the less you can rely on it.
Lets take a look at the break down of the daily candle.
---------------------------------------------------------------
# ETH/USD Analysis – Daily Chart 📊
## Structure and Price Action:
**Ascending Channel with Breakdown Risks**
ETH/USD is currently trading within a **parallel ascending channel**, with price oscillating between its upper and lower bounds (green lines). Recently, the price sharply rejected at **$4,100** and is now testing the **lower trendline support** near **$3,500**.
**Bearish Rejection Near Key Resistance**
Sellers emerged strongly at the **$4,100 Bearish Order Block (OB)**, leading to a steep reversal. This highlights a significant supply zone at this level.
**Approaching Key Demand Zone**
The price is nearing **Bullish Order Blocks (OB)** around **$3,500–$3,600** (green zones), where buyers have defended historically. This is a critical support area within the larger channel.
---
## Support and Resistance:
**Immediate Resistance**
- **$3,600–$3,700**: Overhead resistance zone, aligned with EMA 20 and mid-channel range.
- **$4,100**: Major supply zone, previously rejected at this level.
**Key Support Levels**
- **$3,500**: Current demand area reinforced by a key trend line
- **$2,800–$3,000**: Next structural support if breakdown occurs.
---
## Indicators
**EMAs (20/50/100/200):**
- The price has dropped below **EMA 20 ($3,800)** and **EMA 50 ($3,750)**, indicating short-term bearish momentum.
- **EMA 100 ($3,610)** is providing immediate dynamic support.
- **EMA 200 ($3,380)** remains a critical long-term support level.
**Parabolic SAR**
- SAR dots are below the candles indicating an up wave in progress but it seems muted.
**Volume**
- Recent sell-off saw a **volume surge**, confirming active participation in the pullback.
**Stochastic RSI**
- Currently **oversold** (9.30/26.79), favoring a short-term bounce from this zone.
**Money Flow Index (MFI)**
- MFI is sitting at **51.26**, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions but showing signs of selling pressure easing.
---
## Pattern Analysis:
**Ascending Channel Breakdown Risk**
ETH/USD is testing the **lower channel boundary ($3,500)**. A breakdown below this level could invalidate the top of channel, leading to bearish momentum targeting lower support levels.
---
## Probabilistic Outlook
**Bullish Scenario (Primary Case):**
If buyers defend the **$3,500–$3,600** zone with rising volume:
- **First Target**: $3,800–$3,850 (EMA 20 and mid-channel resistance).
- **Second Target**: $4,000–$4,100 (upper channel resistance).
**Bearish Scenario (Alternate Case):**
If the price closes below **$3,500**:
- **First Target**: $3,200 (next structural support).
- **Second Target**: $3,000–$2,800 (psychological level and major demand zone).
---
## Key Signals to Watch:
1. **$3,500 Support**: Holding or breaking this level will decide the next move.
2. **Volume Confirmation**: Rising volume on bounce or breakdown strengthens directional bias.
3. **Stochastic RSI Oversold Levels**: Signals a possible bounce unless selling pressure increases.
---
## Order Book Update:
Order books continue to look dirty but with potential for recovery. Both asks and bids tracking a downward trend, asks is staging a potential ascending channel though many times asks have lost a bit more than bids on pullback, indicating negative trader sentiment or fear in the market, it is in a position to change course over the next days but until it does, books are under pressure.
---
## Conclusion:
ETH/USD is at a **critical inflection point**, testing the lower trendline of the ascending channel converting to a sideways channel to consolidate before breaking out or breaking down. Bulls need to defend **$3,500** to sustain the medium term bullish structure. A successful defense targets **$3,800–$4,100**, with anything higher than $4100 starting a new breakout and while failure to maintain $3500 opens the path toward **$2,800** or lower.
🔍 **Monitor volume, key support levels, and stochastic momentum for confirmation.** 🚨
NFLX pullback to $803MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make.
Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated.
My trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels.
I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels.
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price at top of channels (period 100 52 39 & 26)
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at overbought level
VBSM is positive
Price at 4.618 Fibonacci level
Down from $876.75
Target is $803 or channel bottom
will manually stop loss
Z tags $85, pulls back to $75MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make.
Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated.
My trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels.
I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels.
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price at or near top of channels (period 100 52 39 & 26)
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at overbought level
VBSM is spiked positive
Price at or near Fibonacci level
Buying a put if price reaches $85
Target is $75 or channel bottom
Stop loss is TBD
META pullback to $586MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make.
Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated.
My trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels.
I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels.
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
2HR CHART (expect target to hit THIS WEEK)
Price at or above top of channels (period 100 52 39 & 26)
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at overbought level
VBSM is spiked positive
Price at or near 3.618 Fibonacci level
Target is $586 or channel bottom
USDCHF: Bullish Move Confirmed 🇺🇸🇨🇭
It looks like a local correctional movement is over on USDCHF
and the pair is returning to a bullish trend.
The release of the today's US fundamentals made the pair
violate a resistance line of a narrow consolidation range on an hourly.
The price will most likely go up to 0.9007 level.
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Focus Shifts to Greenback and the 10-year TreasuryThe Federal Reserve triggered violent drops in stocks yesterday and two key charts could be attempting important breakouts.
We first consider the U.S. Dollar Index with weekly candles. There’s a falling trendline along the peaks of October 2023 and late April. DXY rallied through that resistance and turned it into support earlier this month. That may be consistent with an uptrend.
Second, DXY has advanced in 11 of the last 12 weeks. That could also suggest direction is accelerating higher.
Third, some traders may now eye the October 2022 high around 114 as the next key level.
Next is the 10-year Treasury Yield with 3-day candles (to clearly display almost 2 years of history):
A falling channel began in late 2023 at the same time stocks began their latest rally, but TNX didn’t reach the lower end of the channel. That was the first sign that yields might still be rising.
TNX also failed to reach its March 2023 low and refused to stay below its December 2023 low.
The index dipped last month but held its mid-July low above 4 percent.
Next comes the historically important long-term peak of 4.34 percent from the start of the Global Financial Crisis. After that, TNX closed above its November daily high.
Each of those points additionally suggest that that yields are moving higher. They also shift attention to the next big level near 5 percent from October 2022.
Given the importance of DXY and TNX for risk appetite, some traders may find potentially useful intermarket signals on their charts.
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POLYMATH has some very interesting long-term upsideThere's potential here for a long term break-out. It's looking like there's a huge upside potential if we can break free of this channel. Perhaps, we've on wave 2 of the highest degree of trend with wave 3 ready to burst through the upper trend line. The sooner it does, the more violent we will go to the upsde. Let's keep a close eye on it as the longer the projection, the more there is likely to change. In any case, huge potential upside here. Follow for more.
EconOptic| We are still in the ascending channel Bitcoin Analysis in the 4-Hour Timeframe
Yesterday, Bitcoin experienced a price correction, reaching the lower boundary of the ascending channel, as the midline of the channel lacked sufficient strength to support the price.
The observed correction and decline were stronger than the previous upward wave, which may indicate the sellers' dominance. However, since the price remains within an ascending channel and the overall trend is bullish, I do not recommend opening short positions at this time.
My first trigger for a short position would be a lower high formation and a confirmed break below the ascending channel's bottom line.
For long positions, the safest entry remains above the green line at **107,538**. Alternatively, another viable option could be waiting for price consolidation and the formation of a new breakout trigger, likely around the midline of the ascending channel. This scenario would be ideal if accompanied by a decrease in red candle volume and an increase in green candle volume, signaling momentum building in favor of the trend.
i recommend you to use safe stoploss .
Conclusion:
While the recent correction suggests increasing selling pressure, the overall bullish trend and channel structure indicate better opportunities for long positions. A confirmed breakout trigger with momentum support will provide the most favorable entry for buyers.
Thank you for reading this analysis.
-EconOptic
ETHEREUM → Consolidation after a bearish trend breakBINANCE:ETHUSD is consolidating within the flat boundaries of 4085 3530. In general, there is a bullish trend, the fundamental background is also favorable except for yesterday's news, which creates a small risk...
The price is at a strong resistance between 4090 and 4100 and it will take a lot of energy to break this area. Yesterday's news was generally controversial but with a negative bias. Despite the decline in interest rates, there were strong hints of stopping the decline and taking a hawkish course. Bitcoin is giving a small correction against this backdrop, which is negative for altcoins.
Ethereum technically did not break the bullish structure, a very strong support area of 3530 - 3440 is formed on the chart and with high probability a retest is possible, a liquidity grab with the aim of further growth. There are risks for further fall, they can be taken into account, but we can consider an attempt of growth as a priority.
Resistance levels: 4086, 4100, 4372
Support levels: 3530, 3440, 3261
Since the price is inside the consolidation, our strategy is simple - trading from the channel boundaries. Accordingly, based on the current situation, we should consider a retest of support before further growth.
Regards R. Linda!
NZDUSD → The price could fall another 2.5%FX:NZDUSD is forming a return to a strong support zone after testing it after a year. Against the backdrop of a rising dollar, the chances of a support breakout are growing.
The downtrend, rising dollar, weak fundamental background for NZD play a key role in forming a bear market. The price is testing the key resistance and trying to enter the selling zone. At the moment the price is restrained by the descending channel support and if the price manages to break this line and consolidate below, strong selling may be formed further, as there are no obstacles below it until 0.562.
Resistance levels: 0.577, 0.5817
Support levels: 0.575, 0.562
I do not exclude the possibility of correction if the buyers hold the support. But there is no chance of a trend change. Another retest of the support may lead to a breakdown and further fall to 0.562
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD (XAUUSD): Massive Breakout
FED rate decision and FOMC made Gold very bearish yesterday.
The price violated a support line of a wide horizontal range on a daily.
Its breakout signifies a strong bearish pressure.
It opens a potential for more price depreciation.
Next support - 2563
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Bitcoin - Finally time for a drop! (alien technology)Bitcoin (crypto) is a technology that was brought to planet Earth by alien species. You probably heard of Grays, Reptilians, and Dracos from TV or YouTube. These days they are everywhere, and they are represented as evil to humanity. They infiltrated the government, presidential candidates, and big companies. They are here, but you don't see them. You can watch the following interview with a reptilian: www.youtube.com
Crypto technology is not new in the galaxy, and humans didn't invent it. But let's take a look at the price action. The Bitcoin bullish cycle is coming to an end. I think the end will be around 125,000 USDT, so you don't want to buy the TOP. We can expect a 60% to 50% correction in 2025/2026 - that would be 60k per Bitcoin.
At the top of each bullish cycle, many people get stuck with their holdings by buying near-all-time highs, then experience a massive crash in their account due to extremely high Bitcoin volatility. In the short- term, I expect a pullback to the bottom of the parallel channel, profit 1: 99405, profit 2: 94700.
Write a comment with your altcoin, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Also, please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Gold - Prepare For A Devastating Drop!Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) will create a massive correction:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Gold rallied more than +70% over the past couple of months, basically without showing any real correction. Therefore it is no surprise that after retesting the channel resistance, Gold is now showing some weakness. It is quite likely that this is just the beginning of a significant drop.
Levels to watch: $2.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Looking for a pullbackMy trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels.
I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels.
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price above channels (period 100 52 39 & 26)
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at overbought level
VBSM is spiked positive
Price at or near 2.618 Fibonacci level
In at $477
Target is $352 or channel bottom
EURO - Price can continue to decline inside falling channelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price broke $1.0560 level and fell to support line, after which rose to resistance line and continued to fall.
Then price made a gap and fell to support level, after which some time traded near and then made upward impulse.
Price broke resistance line with resistance level, and rose to $1.0630 points, but then it started to fall.
In falling channel, price broke $1.0560 level again and fell to support area, after which bounced up, making a fake breakout.
Next, Euro started to grow and now it continues to move up, therefore I think it can almost reach resistance line.
After this, price can turn around and start to fall to $1.0470 support level inside falling channel.
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EURO - Price can bounce up from support level to $1.0650Hi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A few moments ago price declined inside falling channel, where it fell from resistance line to $1.0765 level.
Then price rose to resistance line of channel, making first gap and then making a downward impulse, exiting from channel.
Also then, EUR continued to decline inside a downward pennant, where it broke $1.0765 level and later fell to $1.0470 level.
Next, price declined to support line of pennant, after which made a second gap and rose to resistance line of pennant,
After this, Euro declined to $1.0470 level and some time traded near, but now it trades close support line.
Possible, price can fall to support level, exiting from pennant and then bounce up to $1.0650
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USDJPY → Consolidation of price in the sell zoneFX:USDJPY reaches a strong resistance at 153.87 within an uptrend. Will this direction continue, as the Fed rate meeting is ahead....
Fundamentally, today is a big day for the markets. At 19:00 GMT the Fed rate meeting, where with a 93% probability the decision to cut interest rates by 0.25% will be made, which will make the dollar less attractive, but for how long, given Trump's policy?
Accordingly, the dollar is in a consolidation phase, traders are waiting. If the dollar starts a downward correction, it will affect the currency pair accordingly. But I do not exclude that on the background of high volatility the price may form a retest of resistance and a false breakout.
Resistance levels: 154.95, 156.75
Support levels: 151.44, 159.69
At the moment, after the retest of 0.79 fibo and the key resistance at 153.877, the price is consolidating in the selling zone. The fundamental background may increase the pressure, which may lead to a fall.
Regards R. Linda!
Apple Wave Analysis 17 December 2024
- Apple rising inside impulse wave 3
- Likely to reach resistance level 260.00
Apple continues to rise inside the accelerated impulse wave 3, which previously broke the resistance zone located between the resistance level 242.00 and the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from the middle of September.
The active impulse wave 3 belongs to the extended upward impulse sequence (3) from the start of August.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Apple can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 260.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).