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Semiconductors

AMAT - Buy the post-earnings dipThe fundamentals: Another quarter of solid growth for Applied Materials, who provide equipment used in semiconductor fabrication. While investors cheer on (the now overbought) MU, AMAT also has room to grow. Even if growth appears to be slowing, this dip puts it at a good price. The technicals: RSI(15) is just under 50, meaning it is neither overbought nor oversold. The current price is also in the bottom half of the Bollinger Bands. EMA50 has been decreasing for the past 2 months, but remains above EMA200. Implied volatility (IV30) is around 30% for options. The play: Long under $52, targetting $58. Buying calls can be a good play while volatility is relatively low. You can also sell covered calls
NASDAQ:AMAT
by dvdgege5
1
[SOX] Bull Flag Breakout! Upside Targets and the Risks for ChipsSemiconductor chips has broken above the horizontal flag it's been in since the strong rally off recent lows. The index ETF charted here, SOXX, was up over 13% from the 4/25 to 5/14! Today breaking out above resistance around $188, SOXX is up nearly 1% and with steadily increasing bull volume last few days. Roughly speaking, looks like the SOX is in an ascending broadening formation. It's hard pin down this pattern because of a lot uncertainty intra-formation. From here, IF this breakout follows through, I'm looking at the $195-$200 area as upside targets for a couple reasons: 1) Ideal Fibonacci extension of 61.8% puts price at $201 and the 41.4% extension level is at the $196 area. The 161.8% looks to be more likely as a top than the 141.4% area, at this point in time, due to the reason #2. 2) Upper trendline here is rising and I've taken the risk of cutting through a few candles at the peaks and using the gaps and gap fills as an alternative guide. This upper resistance aligns almost perfectly, not only with the 161.8% level of $200, but also with a rough estimate of the timing. By literally copy and pasting the solid green arrow (take with a grain of salt), using the same angle of ascent all the way to my upper trendline in purple would indicate a convergence of 3 different indicators around the same point in time and space. Assuming this continuation breakout follows through of course. Fundamental uncertainty is high and unsurprisingly so is volatility, hence the wild broadening formation. The last week or so was the bears' chance to force a head&shoulders pattern, which would have been really bad news for SOX and the entire market. It still can be possible, without a doubt. However, it seems that we have just completed a triangle/bull flag indicating continuation. We got continuation and breakout today to end the week on a positive note for the long weekend, a psychological benefit imo. The Bearish Argument: Volatility is unpredictable, many tweets could be made over memorial day weekend. Volume isn't that high, but very slowly rising. Here's a few things to watch carefully in case of a fake breakout: A) The breakout resistance around $186.50 needs to turn support (dashed red line) in the event that we see a retest. Dropping and holding below that could lead to an acceleration to the downside with or without a pause at the last resort support just below the $182 area (solid red line). This puts longer term downside potential in play if bears follow through. B) Could be nice to take a large portion of profits at target 1 given uncertainty. Perhaps this would be a spot to consolidate or slow down before potentially seeing an exhaustion gap up to the peak of target 2. Ideal scenario though, watch any consolidations or resistances carefully and assess volume intraday. Pull profits periodically on huge surges up. Being inside this large broadening formation means that clear volume spike in either direction isn't gonna be likely on this trade. Large moves can happen on low volume and be easily reversed. Before reaching either target. C) Fundamentally, watch QQQ and XLF related news. Both are looking to breakout of respective patterns but haven't yet. The markets as a whole tend to rally when both these tech and financial sectors are trending up at the same time. And also given geopolitics, I'm watching USOIL and XOP for big changes. Oil is coming off recent highs giving relief to the non-energy production sectors. Sudden moves could throw off any balance between sectors. And obviously, look at Chinese trade negotiations. It's so back and forth, on and off lately that it appears the market is giving up on listening to the developments unless some tangible and measurable actions take place. Which is exactly how the market gets blindsided when something does actually happen. I'm going to try to stay up to date with the news on trade closely even though it seems meaningless to do so.
NASDAQ:SOXXLong
by NYFinancials
AMD ShortAMD 's RSI has been decreasing since 2016 December, and its price seems to have formed a head and shoulders pattern. It had some serious price drops with large volume after its left shoulder and head, breaking the 50 day moving average. After forming the right shoulder and undercutting the 50 MA, it showed a churning day ( high volume during the day, but no significant price progress), couldn't retake the moving average and continued with a definitive downward move. It found a significant support around the 9 level, which if it breaks, it could correct until the 6 level (-30%) since it is the next significant support. If it continues moving higher from the 9 support, the 50 day MA, the yellow trendline and the purple trendline are acting as resistance, which it would have to show significant volume upwards for the trend to change. As long as these levels hold, the trend is still downward.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by BenedekBokor
7
Trade War is ON - Rough Week Ahead for Markets [TECH SECTOR]The Nasdaq-100 is about to have another day in the red. Around 3 am eastern, Nasdaq 100 e-Mini Futures began diving, erasing the minor gains made in the previous session. The futures tend to take big swings during open sessions which IMO means that cable news networks are gonna throw that index ticker up for the day. The drop also comes 5 hours before opening bell which means that futures could be trading even lower by then. The catalysts that'll be buzzing on the news networks: Trump Administration's official release on Monday of tariffs on Chinese Imports. The list is lengthy targeting all sorts of products and very specific at times, specifying that biscuit ovens are to be levied. While I am concerned about biscuits, the main focus is on industrials and tech. Semiconductor materials and other intermediate electronics parts are big targets that could have a big impact on the US markets. Not on the list are some apparel items, because sweatshop made t-shirts are too far apparently. We'll see how Nike and Under Armour fare. Quick retaliation by China. News broke overnight that China will target tariffs on US exports of equal value. Included items are more agricultural related items, Soybeans, Corn, etc. These goods are hard hitting to Trump's voter base. Also included are aerospace and car parts, not good for Boeing and Soybean Futures already dropped real quick. Overall, China does have the upper hand in this trade war, they have growing domestic demand for many American goods and the ability to undercut US companies by growing domestic ones. The US doesn't have that same luxury. Takeaways: These are just plans, an overseas mexican standoff, where both countries hold $50 bln (each) on the line. The goal of this trade war isn't to hurt industry, but to have a reason to beat our chests, rile up some voters, and to agree to fix some boring legal issues. So any short should be a SHORT TERM trade, at least at this stage. It's likely that we'll see new lows and the technicals could be different after this week. There are several, probably bullish, reports coming out this week so it'll be a volatile one. I'm personally looking at the Semiconductor Bearish ETF SOXS because it is the one of the crosshairs of this trade war and has the most to lose with their inflated P/E ratios and more sellers looking to take profits while they can. The tech blue chips also have bearish momentum already from a slew of news items, Amazon, Tesla, Facebook, Intel, and so on and so forth. Technicals: The 200 Daily MA (Yellow line) may be tested as well as the lower uptrend channel support. Breaking through these supports could be a sign of a longer correction. Yet at the same time they could converge to hold us up longer, but I'm not too confident on that scenario. Here's a look at how the e-Mini Futures played out overnight: Let me know your thoughts, if you agree or not and why, i'm curious. Give this post a like if you found it helpful! ~NY ***This is not financial advice in any form, do your own thinking***
TVC:NDQShort
by NYFinancials
3
PHLX SOX Index: Long term reversalWith heavyweight Intel getting hammered today, the outlook of the broader semiconductor index obviously gets dragged along. The already unconvincing outlook of the past months has taken a turn for the worst by breaking below cloud support at 1299. The minor internal trend line at 1272 is now scrutinized but a move lower seems a mere formality. Focus is on the reasonable support zone at 1211 at first. Below that a new primary down trend takes hold towards 1122 (daily projection) and probably a lot lower on a 6+ month horizon. After all, the current breakout means the start of a multi-month corrective phase with very substantial down side risks. Avoid any longs in the sector. New short-entries are justifiable as long as prices hold below ~1345 over the next weeks. Near term trend: negative Long term trend: neutral Outlook: long-term reversal expected Strategy: avoid/exit-long or trading short-entry Support: 1272 / 1211 / 1122* Resistance: 1345 / 1360+ Outlook cancelled/neutralized above 1345
TVC:SOXShort
by buyem_nl
ON Semiconductor Corp LONGLong from $22.70 Market Cap - $10.41B ROE - 21.88% Projected Sales Growth - 2.38% - On has seen a strength in demand across most end markets as shown in its bookings trend over the last four quarters. Distributor inventories increased in the last quarters and re-sales remain strong. - Their automotive segment is a strong growth driver – share gains, unit growth, attractive product offerings, contributes to revenues. - They are very active in M&A. the companies acquisitions of AMI semiconductor, CMOS image sensor business unit, Analog Devices power PC controller business, CMD, Catalyst, SANYO Semiconductor and Sound Design gave it a new scope of technical capabilities. Some products and higher margin products expose to new markets and greater product range. The acquisition of Fairchild’s semiconductor international makes it the leader in the power semiconductor industry helping them diversify across a huge range of markets with a main focus on smart phones, automotive and industrial end markets. ON has successfully managed to integrate big acquisitions like AMI semiconductors in the past so it shouldn’t have any problems with the integration of Fairchild. Management expects the Fairchild acquisition to be an immediate boost to non GAAP earnings and free cash flow. Annual cost savings of at least $150m are expected within 18 months. - ON has a very well diversified business and the company looks to generate a significant percentage of revenues from each sector it is involved in. With this diversification it smooths over the impact of seasonality resulting in balanced growth throughout the year. - Main risks would be the 12 month P/E ratio of 21.09 vs industry average of 16.63 and its significant debt burden NeroTree Capital rates ON Semiconductor Corp as a BUY with a price target of $30 in the next 52w.
NASDAQ:ONLong
by UnknownUnicorn2415222
SOXL: Direxion Semiconductor Bull 3X Leverage ETF Overview This ETF is one of my favourites, with a very consistent return Year to Date* 26.14% 1 Year 171.57% 3 Years 85.12% 5 Years 85.46% 10 Years -- Since Inception 44.61% Has shown a positive return every quarter since Q315 Reuters Lipper Fund Research: Total Return: 5 Consistent Return 5 Tax Expense 4 BETA= 4.16 Holdings: (Top ten. Yes, there is AMD) Dreyfus Government Cash Management (Institutional) Texas Instruments Inc ORD TXN Intel Corp ORD INTC Qualcomm Inc ORD QCOM NVIDIA Corp ORD NVDA Broadcom Ltd ORD AVGO Analog Devices Inc ORD ADI Microchip Technology Inc ORD MCHP Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd DR TSM Micron Technology Inc ORD MU Asset Allocation Equities 65.44% Cash 10.61% Fixed Income 12.15% Other 11.80%
AMEX:SOXL
by UnknownUnicorn2421992
Micron's Strong RallyMicron updated guidance for Q2 and now expects revenue in the range of $7.2B to $7.35B from prior guidance of $6.8B to $7.2B and of consensus estimates of $7.02B. In addition, the company expects EPS in the range of $2.70 to $2.75 from prior guidance of $2.51 to $2.65 and consensus estimates of $2.57. The business couldn't be stronger and while recent volatility in the stock market had taken MU under $40 at Monday's close it looks to have made a double bottom. Looking for MU to continue to rally, however the market is in control here and a continued downward trend will derail the recent move.
NASDAQ:MULong
by gthom9
MU - Is it just a meme?If you randomly picked a few readers of r/WallStreetBets, they'd probably tell you all about Micron (MU) & AMD and how they have fantastic potential. Focusing in on MU: is it going to live up to the hype? From a technical analysis point of view, I'm inclined to agree! A very textbook flag/triangle pattern is forming - these patterns are generally trend continuation patterns. The semiconductor industry is booming. MU put together a very impressive sequence of earnings beats. All in all, I believe we should see a breakout very soon!
NASDAQ:MULong
by dvdgege5
1