EURO FUTURES (6E) – Weekly Structural OutlookBias: Short (Macro Caution)
Structural Context
Price is currently trading above the 75% Premium line, signaling overvaluation within the weekly dealing range.
To extend this framework, we can introduce the concept of “Extreme Premium”, symmetrical to the Deep Discount (75%), projected at 75% of the top range. This acts as an upper extension where distribution probability increases significantly.
Current Structure
The latest move may be interpreted as local re-accumulation (if institutions continue adding to longs, supported by the Fed rate cut).
However, given the relative price location (extreme premium), the probability of distribution grows, especially if supply zones on the weekly timeframe show rejection and sustained buying volume fails.
Flow Reversal Confirmation
For the weekly bias to shift decisively to Short, we would need:
Clear institutional pressure in COT reports – net positioning flipping from long to short by asset managers.
Break of the daily dealing range, confirming demand failure.
Rising volatility (EVZ) to reinforce regime transition.
👉 Summary:
Structurally, the Euro is in overvaluation territory (>75% premium).
Without confirmation from COT positioning, it is premature to assume broad distribution.
A valid short bias requires notable institutional reversal plus a daily dealing range break.
