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Trend Analysis

GOLD corrects after hot rally, conditions remain optimisticOANDA:XAUUSD has retreated from an all-time high of $3,167.67/oz as investors began to take profits after a “parabolic” rally. While the rally was initially fueled by safe-haven demand stemming from US President Donald Trump’s plans for higher tariffs, questions are starting to arise about the sustainability of the rally as buying pressure wanes and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves into overbought territory. Gold has rallied 19% so far in 2025 and this correction could be temporary Gold prices have rallied 19% this year, supported by multiple macro uncertainties, historic central bank buying and continued inflows into ETFs. Despite the current pullback, from a fundamental perspective, this does not impact the overall bullish fundamental trend and the likelihood of near-term technical consolidation has begun to increase. Trump’s tariffs a “catalyst” supporting the physical gold market? Trump's proposal to impose 10% tariffs on most imports has stoked market concerns about slowing economic growth and rising business costs, while risk aversion has pushed gold prices higher. However, the White House later clarified that "critical raw materials" including gold, copper and energy would be exempt, alleviating some concerns about supply chain disruptions and providing some support to the physical gold market. Market sentiment remains bullish, with strong buying momentum on dips Although the technical side is currently under some pressure, the market's optimism remains unshaken. It is difficult to try to assess the peak near the historical high, but it is clear that every pullback is quickly absorbed by buyers, which shows that the underlying bullish sentiment in the market is still strong. Described by the sharp drop on Thursday, gold recovered very quickly after the drop. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold may enter a correction phase after a long period of hot growth, depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling below the overbought level, breaking the blue bullish channel. In the short term, if gold breaks below the short-term channel, converging with the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level, it will be in a position to correct further with the next target level around $3,066 in the short term, more than $3,040. However, overall, gold still has a bullish technical outlook with the price channel as the long-term trend and the main support from the EMA21. As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the EMA21, the declines should be considered as corrections and not a trend. On the other hand, once gold recovers from the 0.50% Fibonacci extension and holds above the raw price point of $3,100, it will signal the end of the correction cycle, then the upside target will be the 0.786% Fibonacci extension in the short-term. During the day, the long-term uptrend with the possibility of a short-term correction will be noticed again by the following positions. Support: 3,086 – 3,066 – 3,040USD Resistance: 3,100 – 3,106 – 3,135USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3147 - 3145⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3151 →Take Profit 1 3139 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3133 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3061 - 3063⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3057 →Take Profit 1 3069 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3075
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
will gold push higher , given the state of US economyyesterday NY session we did see gold bounce of a major 4 hour support area, & buyers coming into the market with the current situation in the US market & with the DXY pushing down, there is a good chance that gold will be pushing higher. opportunities on gold happen london & the crossover with the new york session, be mindful of NFP & the fed announcement also at 4 pm. i will be looking for buys around the 3.08.00 area, which lines up perfectly with the 0.71 fibbonacci level. extra comformations/ i would want to see a bullish engulfing or another candle formation that is showing bullish price action around this area, before i enter the trade. we may get an early entry london open, or around NFP news release at 1.30 pm please feel free to comment & send me your own mark up, ideas.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by kingjforex12
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed sharply lower due to the aftermath of tariff impositions. Following a significant gap-down, the index broke below the lower Bollinger Band, intensifying selling pressure. Yesterday’s bearish candlestick confirmed a sell signal, leading to an expanded third wave of selling. The index has now reached the previous support zone near 18,500, with additional volatility expected due to today’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report and Fed Chair Powell’s speech. On the monthly chart, the Nasdaq is forming a lower shadow around the 20-month moving average. Given the sharp decline, if further selling occurs, oversold conditions may trigger a strong rebound, making it risky to chase shorts at this stage. The 240-minute chart also shows a sell signal, with heavy selling pressure continuing. However, this is a risky zone to enter new short positions, so it's advisable to monitor short-term price movements before making a move. Regardless of whether you take long or short positions, due to high volatility, make sure to set stop-loss levels and adjust leverage to a manageable risk level. Additionally, the VIX surged, forming a large bullish candle and reaching its March 11 high. With the VIX in an uptrend and a buy signal appearing, further volatility expansion is likely. However, since it has reached a key resistance zone, a short-term pullback in the VIX could allow for a Nasdaq rebound. For the VIX to break above its previous high, a period of consolidation may be necessary. Given the strong buying momentum on both the weekly and monthly charts, this should be taken into consideration when forming a trading strategy. Crude Oil Crude oil plunged following the OPEC meeting, where supply increases became a key issue. While oversupply concerns are a factor, the economic slowdown fears from tariffs have also played a major role in the decline. Previously, $68 was considered a strong support level, but oil collapsed from $72 in a steep decline. The final key support lies around $66. On the daily chart, the MACD and signal line are converging near the zero line, suggesting that once a new wave begins, it could lead to a strong trend movement. Depending on today's session and Monday’s market, oil could see an aggressive breakout in either direction. Current candlestick patterns indicate that the weekly chart remains bearish, meaning holding long positions over the weekend carries significant risk. The 240-minute chart also confirms a strong sell signal, with MACD plummeting. Oil may form a temporary sideways range near the $66 support, but if this level breaks, selling pressure could intensify. Ensure you manage stop-loss risks carefully in case of further downside. Gold Gold declined, reacting to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar's value. The price failed to hold above $3,200 and dropped below the 5-day moving average. Gold has been in a one-way trend, so a bullish approach remains valid unless it breaks below the 10-day MA. However, it has now entered a range-bound phase, and MACD on the daily chart is nearing the signal line, suggesting potential downside risks. The MACD failed to break its February highs, increasing the likelihood of divergence, which could trigger a strong correction if selling intensifies. With rising market volatility and today's NFP release, further wild swings in gold prices are expected. The 240-minute chart has shown a sell signal, leading to a sharp decline. However, the price has found support near a key resistance-turned-support zone. Since the MACD and signal line remain above the zero line, gold may continue trading within a range in the short term. On shorter timeframes, candlestick volatility is high, so reducing leverage and widening stop ranges would be a prudent strategy. During periods of extreme market volatility, technical analysis may become less effective, as market sentiment often overrides chart patterns. As always, trade only within your manageable volatility range. The market is always open, so even if you incur losses, there will always be opportunities to recover. Manage risk wisely, and best of luck with your trades today! If you like my analysis, please follow me and give it a boost! For additional strategies for today, check out my profile. Thank you!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
The Day Ahead US Jobs & FED Powell speech US March Jobs Report Most important release this week. Strong report boosts the dollar and bond yields Weak report supports stocks and pressures the dollar Canada March Jobs Report Strong numbers lift the Canadian dollar Weak numbers weigh on CAD Germany, France, Italy Data Includes factory orders, industrial production, and retail sales Weak data puts pressure on the euro Strong data supports the euro Japan February Household Spending Low spending signals continued Bank of Japan easing, weakens the yen Higher spending may support the yen UK March Car Sales and Construction PMI Positive surprises could lift the pound Sweden March CPI Hot inflation could delay rate cuts and support the krona Cooler CPI may lead to SEK weakness Central Bank Watch Fed’s Powell and Barr Speaking Hawkish tone strengthens the dollar and lifts yields Dovish comments could boost risk assets and weaken the dollar This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Analysis – April 4, 2025Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Analysis – April 4, 2025 📉 🔹 Current Price: $83,131.28 🔹 Timeframe: 15M 📌 Key Supply Zones (Resistance Levels): 🔴 $83,688.08 – Immediate resistance 🔴 $85,287.31 – Major supply zone 📌 Key Demand Zone (Support Level): ⚫ $81,523.24 – Potential downside target 📉 Bearish Scenario: If BTC faces rejection at $83,688.08, it could trigger a sell-off towards $81,523.24, making it a crucial level for further movement. 📈 Bullish Scenario: A breakout above $85,287.31 could lead to further bullish momentum and new highs. ⚡ Trading Tip: ✅ Wait for confirmation at $83,688.08 before entering short positions. ✅ Use proper risk management strategies. ✅ Keep an eye on $81,523.24 as a potential reversal zone. #FXFOREVER #Bitcoin #BTCUSD #CryptoTrading #SmartMoney #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by FXFOREVER_87
USDJPY Buying SetupUSDJPY is currently sitting in a key support zone, signaling a potential bullish momentum build-up. This bias is supported by the formation of a strong bullish candle at the level, suggesting buyers are stepping in. Importantly, price has respected structure—no lower low (LL) was formed. Instead, we’ve got a clean higher low (HL), which aligns perfectly with a bullish continuation scenario. Take-profits (TPs) and stop-loss (SL) levels are chosen with precision, keeping recent market structure and volatility in mind. As always, proper risk management is crucial for capital protection. Regards Sherry
Long
by Trade_With_Sherry
XAU/USD Trend Today - Wide and Unpredictable Trading Range🔔🔔🔔 Gold news: ➡️ The price of gold (XAU/USD) continues its decline after reaching an all-time high on Thursday, though it remains above the $3,100 level in early European trading. Optimistic traders are taking profits and scaling back their positions amid mildly overbought conditions. However, persistent concerns over potential economic harm from President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs are expected to support the safe-haven appeal of the precious metal. Personal opinion: ➡️ The effects of the gold price increase are too much. Therefore, the current decline in the gold price to the 3125 area compared to the peak of 3167 is just profit-taking by buyers. Consider strong technical resistance - support zones to get the best profit for you ➡️ Analyze based on resistance - support levels and Pivot points combined with EMA to come up with a suitable strategy Resistance zone: 3137 - 3150 - 3165 Support zone: 3113 - 3100 - 3184 Plan: 🔆Price Zone Setup: 👉Sell Gold 3150 - 3148 (Scalping) ❌SL: 354 | ✅TP: 3145 - 3142 - 3139 👉Sell Gold 3165- 3167 ❌SL: 3172| ✅TP: 3160 – 3155 – 3150 👉Buy Gold 3086- 3084 ❌SL: 3079| ✅TP: 3090 – 3095 – 3110 👉Buy Gold 3100- 3102 ( Scalping) ❌SL: 3095 | ✅TP: 3106 – 3112 – 3120 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FM-ForexMastermind
1
CADJPY Heading to March's Monthly Low Looking at the CadJpy Chart i can see Price rejecting the Mayor Level 105.000 since Mid March, Now with time price has created some beautiful Market Structure, if we take a look at the Daily Or 4H chart there's a clean clear H&S Pattern printed at the Mayor Level 105. My Analysis for the next move on CadJpy is Price retesting the Monthly low of march ( 101.500 level ) because before price printed the H&S Pattern, price Broke Structure to the downside at the Mayor Level, Made a Higher Low For the Confirmation, and now price is retesting Previous Supply and Demand Zone ( 104. Level ) we do have some Strong news for CAD Friday April 4, I believe if the data does not come out good the the CAD price is gonna drop with some much momentum that the Daily FIB is gonna be fulfilled meaning i can see price drop all the way to 100. Level.
Short
by Jcasanova32
Ford (NYSE:F) Drop 5%+ as Tariffs Threaten Auto Industry marginsFord Motor Company (NYSE: F) is facing a challenging market environment as its stock price fell 5.27% to $9.61 as of 3:24 PM EDT. This drop comes amid declining sales and the looming threat of new tariffs from the Trump administration. In the last 52 weeks, Ford's stock has traded within a range of $9.06 to $14.85. On Tuesday 1st April, Ford reported a 1.3% decline in total vehicle sales year-over-year, delivering 501,291 vehicles in Q1 2025. Despite this decline, retail sales rose by 5%, with a strong 19% surge in March, signaling that buyers may be accelerating purchases ahead of the impending tariffs. General Motors (GM) posted strong results with a 17% increase in sales, delivering 693,353 vehicles in Q1 2025. The company achieved double-digit growth across all its brands, marking its best first-quarter performance since 2018. While GM shares remained stable, Ford shares saw further declines. Tariffs Add Uncertainty for Automakers The auto industry is preparing for the impact of a 25% tariff on foreign cars and parts. The Trump administration confirmed on Wednesday that his 25% global car and truck tariffs would take effect as scheduled on Thursday and that duties on automotive parts imports will be launched on May 3rd. Although Ford manufactures most of its vehicles in the U.S, many essential parts are imported. Higher production costs could push car prices higher, affecting demand. Ford executives have stated they are assessing the impact of these tariffs on their business operations. Chairman William Clay Ford Jr. assured shareholders that the company is prepared to handle geopolitical uncertainties. Despite this, investor sentiment remains cautious, contributing to the recent stock price decline. Technical Analysis Ford’s stock has been trading within a narrow range of $9 to $10 in the last three months. A strong resistance level at $11, tested several times from August to November 2024, remains unbroken. Since failing to break the resistance level, the stock has since then declined. Currently, the price is testing a double support level at $9 comprising of a horizontal key support and a descending trendline. If this support holds, Ford’s stock may attempt another bull phase toward the $11 resistance level. On the other hand, a break below $9 could push the price lower, with the next potential support level at $8.45. The 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages are positioned above the current Market price, at $9.74, $10.08 and $10.70 respectively. This indicates strong bearish pressure, limiting bullish momentum in the near term. Thoughts Moving Forward With tariffs and the auto industry facing supply chain disruptions, Ford’s stock is likely to remain under pressure. The bearish sentiment could persist in the short term, especially if the price breaks below the key $9 support level. If support holds, Ford could see a short-term bounce toward $11. However, sustained bullish momentum would require strong demand and improved market sentiment. This would be witnessed if its earnings report, set to be released between April 22nd and April 28th, 2025, is favorable. Until then, geopolitical and economic uncertainties weigh on the stock.
NYSE:FLong
by DEXWireNews
Ethereum - The Perfect Crypto Trade!Ethereum ( CRYPTO:ETHUSD ) is retesting massive support: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 For the past four years, Ethereum has overall been trading sideways with significant swings towards the upside and downside. As we are speaking, Ethereum is retesting a significant confluence of support and if the bullrun actually continues, Ethereum will rally parabolically. Levels to watch: $2.000, $4.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:ETHUSDLong
by basictradingtv
8