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Trend Analysis

End of the BTC Cycle: October or November 2025?The question of the end of Bitcoin’s bull cycle linked to the 2024 halving is currently the hot topic in the crypto market. As often, history does not repeat itself exactly but it rhymes, and studying previous cycles allows us to shed light on the probable reversal zones. In this comparative work, three main criteria are considered: post-halving duration, time since the previous cycle’s top, and time since the beginning of the cycle. The comparative table presented in this analysis puts into perspective Bitcoin’s three past cycles (2012, 2016, and 2020), with a particular focus on the last two, in order to project a time window for the end of the current cycle that began with the April 2024 halving. We also take into account the purely calendar-based aspect of the end of the three previous cycles, which allows us to determine the most likely time frame for the end of the ongoing cycle. The 2012 Cycle: A Special Case The first cycle studied, that of 2012, ended after only 366 days post-halving. In calendar terms, it concluded on December 4, 2013. Its relatively short duration (775 days since the beginning of the cycle) makes it a special case, not to be used as the main reference for current projections. However, it provides an initial marker of the possible variability of cycles. The 2016 Cycle: A First Reference The second cycle, which started after the July 2016 halving, ended after 526 days. That would correspond to September 28, 2025, if our current cycle followed the same timeline, with the actual historical end on December 16, 2017. This cycle lasted 1,472 days since the previous top and 1,068 days since its own beginning. These figures show a clear lengthening compared to the 2012 cycle. The 2020 Cycle: Confirmation of a Pattern The third cycle, following the May 2020 halving, lasted 547 days post-halving, which would project the end of the current cycle to October 19, 2025, if repeated, with the actual historical end on November 8, 2021. Its total duration was 1,424 days since the previous top and 1,061 days since the beginning. These figures are close to those of the 2016 cycle, reinforcing the idea of some temporal regularity in Bitcoin’s dynamics, even if price amplitudes differ. The Average of the Last Two Cycles: A Solid Basis for 2025 Combining the 2016 and 2020 cycles, we get an average post-halving duration of 536 days, i.e. a projection around October 8, 2025, for the current cycle. In calendar terms, this places the end of the cycle between November 20 and 25, 2025. The durations since the previous top (1,448 days) and since the beginning of the cycle (1,064 days) also support this projection, suggesting a likely window between late October and November 2025. The Current Cycle (2024): A Window of Uncertainty The ongoing cycle, from the April 2024 halving, is already at 514 days. Projections based on past durations place a possible end between mid-October and mid-November next year. Calculations relative to the previous cycle’s top also point to October 26, 2025, with a margin extending into November. Conclusion: October or November 2025? Comparative analysis favors an end of cycle between October and November 2025, with a slightly higher probability of a peak in October, but an extension into November remains credible, especially with crypto ETFs. As always with Bitcoin, volatility and macroeconomic events could accelerate or delay this pattern, particularly the Fed’s monetary policy. But this time window provides a valuable framework to anticipate the next major market moves. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. 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INDEX:BTCUSD
by Swissquote
SOLUSD H4 | Bullish bounce offBased on the H4 chart analysis, we could see the price fall to the buy entry, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to the take profit. Buy entry is at 217.27, which is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 200.35, which is a pullback support. Take profit is at 244.30, which is a swing high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:SOLUSDLong
by Tradu
DENT'/USDT UPDATE Confirmation after $0,00093DENT/USDT UPDATE DENT is showing signs of strength, but we need confirmation. Key level to watch: $0.00093 ✅ A clear breakout and hold above $0.00093 could trigger further upside momentum. ⚠️ Until then, price remains in a consolidation zone and risk of pullback is present. Plan: Wait for confirmation above $0.00093 before re-entering longs. Next resistance levels to monitor: $0.00105 – $0.00120 Support remains around $0.00085 – $0.00080 Conclusion: Break and retest of $0.00093 will be the bullish signal for continuation.
Long
by SatochiTrader
Japan 225 CFD SELL?Market overall has been bullish on weekly. Based on daily and 4HR TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal pattern which could lead to a possible reversal. We could see SELLERS coming in strong should the current level hold. Disclaimer: Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. High-Risk Warning Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor
FOREXCOM:JP225Short
by WiLLProsperForex
DOT USD bull market DOT is at the bottom where the Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern was formed and it is in the final stages and I expect to start rising from these levels. The first target will be the top of the pattern at a price of $10. Breaking the top will open the way to the distant targets. I note that a huge limit has been set by Polkadot governance (DAO) on the network, as the total supply of tokens that will be minted has been changed. A ceiling has been set for it at 2.1 billion DOTs , unlike what was previously there was no ceiling, as the number of tokens was be around 5billion DOT in the year 2050. Long-term targets: 22$ 36$ 60$ 90$ 140$
CRYPTO:DOTUSDLong
by alichfrcion
BTC: "Growth Control"On September 2, I opened a long on a 4-hour chart from $110,272 with 20x leverage. The movement was impressive: the price reached $116,579, and along the way I managed to fix three profit levels. The difference is almost $6,300 per coin — this is the maximum that the deal gave within the plan. Here, the structure was decisive. The levels were highlighted in advance, and the deal developed step by step, without haste and chaos. This approach removes unnecessary emotions, makes trading transparent and manageable. When the fixation zones and control points are clear in advance, it becomes easier to hold a position. Even with high leverage, the risk remains under control, and emotions do not interfere with logic. This allows you to take the result systematically, and not rely on chance. The market always remains unpredictable. But discipline and consistency turn every move into part of a strategy, where the result is determined by the structure, not emotions.
by CryptoVision
AUDUSD LONG after professional buying in a bull trendAUDUSD long after professional buying and a successful low volume test above the buying area in an up trend Trade strategy using the Tradeguider VSA Elite software. Papertrade on Tradingview, placing the trade with real money on Activtrades (FX markets). Checklist: • Signal of professional buying at 11/09/2025 12:00 • Successful no demand at 15/09/2025 15:30 • Entry on a bar that closed on it’s high • A background of strength • Bullish trend alignment on 21, 50, 200 EMA 15 min, 20MA 4hr, 20MA daily Management of the trade in accordance with my trading plan on 15 mins
Long
by VSA_Alex_
XAU Daily–Gold at Critical Rejection Zone|Breakout or Reversal?Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading near the critical All-Time High (ATH) resistance zone between **$3,656–$3,674**, where it has faced multiple rejections in the past. On the **1D timeframe**, price action is showing signs of hesitation near this level. If a **bullish breakout** occurs above the marked rejection zone — confirmed by a daily candle close with volume — gold could continue its upward trajectory and potentially form new highs. However, if the resistance holds and no breakout is confirmed, a **bearish reversal** may follow. Key **support levels** are marked just below the current price. A breakdown below these support zones may lead price down toward the **targets at $3,621 and $3,603**. This chart also outlines a possible **parabolic rounding top pattern**, signaling caution. 🔑 **Trading Tip:** Wait for breakout or breakdown confirmation before entering trades. Manage risk properly and always follow your trading plan.
FX:XAUUSD
by SmartEdgeTrading
AIUSDT Forming Bullish PennantAIUSDT is currently forming a bullish pennant pattern, a continuation setup that typically signals the market is preparing for another strong upward move after an initial rally. This consolidation phase shows that buyers are holding control, with price coiling into a tighter range before a potential breakout. With steady volume supporting the pattern, the setup indicates that a significant bullish move may be imminent once resistance levels are cleared. The projected gain of 90% to 100%+ reflects the strong momentum behind this formation. Bullish pennants often lead to sharp rallies, as traders who have been waiting on the sidelines jump in once the breakout is confirmed. The energy built up during consolidation usually results in an explosive move, giving both short-term and long-term investors a favorable opportunity. Investor interest in AIUSDT has been growing, with market participants recognizing the potential upside of this project. As accumulation continues, the technical outlook strengthens, and many traders are anticipating a breakout that could open the doors to a new bullish leg in the market. Watching volume spikes and breakout candles will be crucial for catching the next big move. ✅ Show your support by hitting the like button and ✅ Leaving a comment below! (What is You opinion about this Coin) Your feedback and engagement keep me inspired to share more insightful market analysis with you!
Long
by Alpha-GoldFX
CHFJPY: Trend ContinuationAfter a pullback throughout August, it seems like this pair is gaining its momentum back. Here are my observations over on different timeframes. Daily Timeframe: EMA20 is above EMA60, which signals there's an overall uptrend Price also pulled back and stayed above the DTL, indicating that this breakout is successful H1 Timeframe: Price crosses above the DTL, which is another indication that trend confluence is resuming EMA20 being above EMA60 and diverging is giving indications that momentum is likely picking up
Long
by FinancialGamblR
EURGBP One to One Chart breakdown Q3 W36 D15 Y25EURGBP One to One Chart breakdown Q3 W36 D15 Y25 📅 Q3 | W38 | D15 | Y25| 📊 EURGBP Daily Forecast Update 🔍 Analysis Approach: I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on: Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐 Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅ This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price. 💡 My Motto: "Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge." A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ Losses? They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital — FRNGT 🚀
Long
by JCFRGNT