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Trend Analysis

BTC Dominance logarithmic cycle105 days from the previous cycle top to low market dominance at 39%, should see BTC fall into the red zone around mid february and the end of the market. Also a likely scenario that invalidates this, is a further purchasing in BTC to 150k following on the 3rd wave of the elliot wave pattern from it's previous low. However in terms of both it's current dominance being lower than previous markets, and DOW, S&P and Russel 2000 being higher in fibonacci at their 4.236 from each market high to low, it's likely BTC hasn't got the strength left in it to perform, considering this is also the end of a 12 year debt cycle It's unlikely BTC has anything futher. Additionally Pi cycle top indicators on both BTC Market cap and Price haven't triggered yet, so there is a potential it crosses soon. In which case Alt season runs adjacent with BTC price moving to 150 but Dominance slowly falls to 40% or lower over the next 2 months with no alt season continuing on BTC retracement. This essentially marks the retracement period has started, but will push for a higher price, which is similar to the 2021 market with a double top rather than 2012, or 2017 where BTC topped, and then retraced to 0.702 from a 20% correction.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by Kempiet
Key Insights from the BTC Market Analysis1. Market Overview BTC Price: $102,624.90, up +3.83%. Market Cap: $2.03T, with 24h Volume at $103.12B (+13.99%), signaling robust trading activity. Dominance: 56.34% (+0.43%), showing BTC’s growing share of the market. 2. Indicators of Sentiment Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 75, indicating strong "Greed" and bullish market sentiment. Exchange Balances: BTC exchange balance slightly decreased (-0.06%), suggesting hodling and reduced selling pressure. 3. Derivatives Insights Open Interest (OI): Up +5.39% to $149.62B, showing new positions are opening, potentially setting up larger moves. Funding Rates: Positive across major exchanges, indicating more bullish positions. Long/Short Ratio: Mixed sentiment with Binance net long (1.66) and OKX net short (0.67), which may lead to pockets of volatility. 4. Technical Indicators Support: $101k–$101.5k, deeper support near $100k if a pullback occurs. Resistance: $103k–$103.3k. Breaking above this could push BTC toward $105k. RSI: Cooling slightly (~58–60), signaling consolidation or potential pullback after recent gains. 5. Short-Term Scenarios Bullish: A reclaim of $103k could push BTC to $105k. Neutral: Consolidation between $100k and $103k. Bearish: Profit-taking near $103k might drop BTC to $100k or lower. 6. Confidence Level Overall Bias: Moderately bullish. Positives: Increasing OI, reduced exchange balances, and bullish funding rates. Cautions: Slightly cooling RSI and large options OI increase (+45.30%) suggest potential for high volatility. Final Thoughts BTC remains in a strong position as long as it holds above $101k. A breakout above $103k could lead to further upside, but cautious risk management is essential given mixed sentiment across derivatives and short-term cooling indicators.
by titankarma
ES/SPX Morning Update Jan 17thAt first glance, the market’s final hour yesterday looked bearish. However, for those who dont trade with retail..but trade against retail, things were simple. Just wait for retail to get trapped..aka failed breakdown setups (highlighted in plan for today), it was a clear long opportunity. We dipped below the 5974 and 5966 major zones, trapped shorts as usual, and triggered longs for buyers. Now, just hold runners—no further action needed, approaching our 6016 target. Remember, most professional traders dont trade on Fridays, and i rarely do as well. It's usually just managing runners from Thursday…if i have any. Capital preservation should be your main goal every Friday, with the only set ups being took are textbook failed breakdowns.
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by ESMorg
The Market Maker Playbook: Signature Friday Payday ReportThe Ultimate Market Maker Playbook: Signature Friday Payday Report "Trade like a predator, not the prey." Market Maker Psychology: The Puppet Master of Liquidity The market maker isn’t here to "trade" like the rest of us. He’s here to manipulate, to hunt liquidity, and to profit off emotional traders. Think of him as the predator, while retail traders are the unwitting herd of prey. Retail traders trade price; market makers trade liquidity.
The market maker knows where stop-loss orders are, where breakout chasers are piling in, and where fear is strongest. His only job is to push price into these traps, collect liquidity, and then reverse the market. Whales and market makers are in sync.
Unlike retail, whales understand liquidity zones. They position smartly, wait for retail to get wiped out, and then ride the waves the market maker creates. The market maker aligns with whales at key levels, ensuring survival alongside the big players. Friday Payday: The Juiciest Day for the Market Maker It’s Friday, the day when everyone wants to cash in their weekly profits. For retail traders, this means rushed decisions, emotional trades, and trying to "end the week strong." For the market maker? It’s feeding time. Today’s setup on XAU/USD (Gold) is textbook market maker manipulation. Here’s how it played out from Asia to NYC: 1. Asian Session: Planting the Seeds of Manipulation The Asian session is the quiet before the storm, with lower volume and slower movements. But this is exactly when the market maker begins laying the groundwork for the day's liquidity grabs. What the Market Maker Did: The Fake Push to $2,724: Price climbed steadily toward $2,724 (VAH), a key resistance level. Retail traders saw this as a breakout in the making and started piling into long positions early. The market maker built short positions here, knowing he’d flush these buyers later. The Stalled Momentum: At $2,724, price began to stall. Retail breakout traders got trapped, expecting a rally that never came. The market quietly reversed back toward the POC ($2,711), shaking out weak longs and creating fear. The Trapdoor Opens: The market maker let price drift lower, hinting at weakness. Retail sellers started entering, convinced gold was heading down to $2,689 (VAL). 2. Pre-NYC Session: The Real Bait is Set In the pre-NYC session, the market maker gets serious. This is when retail traders wake up and take positions, not realizing they’re stepping into well-laid traps. What’s Happening Now: Fakeout Above $2,724: Expect the market maker to push price above $2,724, triggering breakout buy orders. Retail longs will enter aggressively, thinking the rally is real. This creates a fresh liquidity pool for the market maker to sell into. Reversal to $2,711 (POC): After trapping longs, the market maker will reverse price sharply back toward the POC ($2,711). Retail longs will panic, closing their positions at a loss. Sweep Below $2,689 (Support): The next stop is $2,689 (VAL). Retail shorts will flood in, convinced that gold is crashing. The market maker will use this liquidity to build long positions. 3. NYC Open: The Juicy Carnage The NYC session is where the market maker delivers the final blow to retail traders. It’s fast, it’s volatile, and it’s perfectly designed to trap both buyers and sellers. What the Market Maker Will Do: The Liquidity Hunt Below $2,689: Price will likely break below $2,689, triggering stop-losses for retail buyers and attracting new retail short sellers. The market maker will quietly align with whales here, building long positions while retail shorts get too confident. The Short Squeeze: After accumulating longs below $2,689, the market maker will reverse price aggressively toward $2,724. Retail shorts will scramble to close their positions, fueling a powerful rally back to resistance. The Final Trap at $2,740: As price approaches $2,740, retail traders will FOMO into long positions, convinced the rally is unstoppable. The market maker will offload his long positions here, creating one last sharp pullback to end the day. XAUMO Entry Plan: Trade Like a Market Maker 1. Short Entry (Pre-NYC Fakeout at Resistance) Type: Sell Limit Entry: $2,724 Stop Loss: $2,740 Take Profit: TP1: $2,711 (POC) TP2: $2,689 (VAL) TP3: $2,670 (H4 SMA 50) Trigger: Fake breakout above resistance with bearish candlestick patterns and volume divergence. Confidence Level: 85% 2. Long Entry (Liquidity Trap at Support) Type: Buy Limit Entry: $2,689 Stop Loss: $2,680 Take Profit: TP1: $2,711 (POC) TP2: $2,724 (VAH) TP3: $2,740 (Momentum Extension) Trigger: Sweep below support at $2,689 with bullish RSI divergence and volume spike. Confidence Level: 90% 3. Breakout Entry (Short Squeeze Above $2,724) Type: Buy Stop Entry: $2,726 Stop Loss: $2,711 Take Profit: TP1: $2,740 (Liquidity Zone) TP2: $2,750 (Breakout Target) TP3: $2,760 (Extended Target) Trigger: Bullish breakout above $2,724 with volume surge and MACD histogram expansion. Confidence Level: 80% 4. Final Short Entry (NYC Euphoria Trap) Type: Sell Limit Entry: $2,740 Stop Loss: $2,752 Take Profit: TP1: $2,724 (VAH Retest) TP2: $2,711 (POC) TP3: $2,689 (Full Reversal) Trigger: Exhaustion candles near $2,740 with bearish divergence on RSI. Confidence Level: 75% ———————————————————————————————— Market Maker’s Key Lessons The Game is About Liquidity, Not Price: The market moves to where liquidity is: above resistance and below support. Retail traders lose because they chase price and trade emotionally. Retail is the Food, Whales are the Allies: Retail traders create liquidity through bad decisions. Whales align with the market maker at key levels to dominate the game. Patience Pays: The market maker manipulates, traps, and profits. If you want to trade like them, wait for liquidity zones and confirmations. 💡 "Stop being prey. Start trading like the predator."

FX:XAUUSD
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
The golden is aggressive! The gold price trend recently showed that the price of gold has shown a relatively stable upward trend for a period of time. It can be seen in the one -hour chart: 1. Rising channel: The price of gold is running in a clear rising channel as a whole, which indicates that the current market trend is too much and the buyer's power is strong. 2. Key price points: several important price points, 2,664, 2,619 and 2,724. These points show the fluctuation law of gold prices in the channel, forming a series of high and low points, which reflect the market resistance and support. 3. Return recovery and breakthrough: The current gold price has just fell from the resistance level at the top of the channel, and the support area of ​​the channel midline was close. The price is expected to continue to rebound after being supported near the midline, further testing higher resistance. Based on the current trend, the price of gold in the future may show the following situations: 1. If the gold is supported from 2,710 to 2,698 near the middle line of the channel, it is expected that the price may rise further. The target is the upper area of ​​the channel, which may touch 2,730 or higher. 2. Low risk: If the price falls below the central line support, it may be further adjusted to the lower edge of the channel near 2,665. But considering the upward trend, such situations may only be brief adjustments. 3. Key support and resistance: supporting positions around 2,698 and 2,685, and the resistance levels are 2,724 and 2,730. In terms of operation suggestions, short -term traders can pay attention to the opportunity to rebound in the mid -line support, while medium and long -term investors can continue to watch more gold prices, but they need to be alert to the risk of failed support. The current macroeconomic environment and market emotions, such as the US dollar index and inflation data, may become the main driving force affecting the trend of gold, and should pay close attention to the release of relevant data. Advice Gold once again rushed to participate in the vacant order under the pressure of 2720, stop loss of 2735. The downlink target 2710, 2700. Below the golden recovery supports the rise of 2698-2695, and participate in multiple single layouts. Raise the situation on the 2720. Break 2685 under the stop loss as the basis for stop loss.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by RonPeter_Trading
USDCAD - which direction will the Canadian dollar go?The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving within the range. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying position. The upward movement of this currency pair will make its selling positions attractive. Canada has initiated efforts to mitigate the economic impacts of new U.S. tariffs. These measures include the creation of a critical minerals management unit and defense procurement activities. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau emphasized that Canada would respond firmly and decisively if the U.S. imposes tariffs. Bloomberg reported that Canada is prepared to impose tariffs on $105 billion worth of American goods should the U.S. act first. Quebec’s Premier stated that no official announcements about retaliatory actions would be made until Trump’s plans are clearer, but no options are off the table. Ontario’s Premier added that any retaliatory measures against the U.S. must be stringent. Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, campaigned on promises such as imposing heavy import tariffs, tightening immigration policies, reducing regulations, and downsizing the government.However, the economy he is set to oversee may require a different approach from the policies implemented in 2017. Currently, the U.S. economy is growing at an above-average pace, unemployment is near full employment, and inflationary pressures remain significant. This suggests that the U.S. economy might not need fiscal stimulus measures like tax cuts. Furthermore, high asset valuations and rising bond yields could expose the economy to sharper corrections. When Trump took office in 2017, the U.S. economy was still recovering from the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Policies such as tax cuts and import tariffs had varying impacts then. However, today, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, mortgage rates are near 7%, and government bond yields are close to 5%. These rising yields may reflect market concerns about inflation control and America’s fiscal discipline. In a recent Reuters survey, 25 out of 31 economists predicted that the Bank of Canada would cut interest rates by 0.25% at its January 29 meeting, while the remaining six expected rates to stay unchanged. Gravelle, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, stated that quantitative tightening (QT) is expected to conclude in the first half of 2025. He noted that ending QT would require settlement balances to rise to a range of CAD 50-70 billion, up from the previous estimate of CAD 20-60 billion. Treasury bond purchases are set to commence in the last quarter of this year, initially in small volumes. Following the release of recent data, projections for real personal consumption expenditures in Q4 have risen from 3.3% to 3.7%, while real government spending growth for the same period increased from 2.9% to 3%. However, forecasts for real private domestic investment growth have been revised downward from -0.4% to -0.8%. In its updated forecast, Wells Fargo indicated that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates twice this year by 0.25%, once in September and again in December. Previously, three rate cuts were anticipated for the year.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Gold Price Analysis January 17Fundamental Analysis Growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve will pause its rate-cutting cycle later this month and bets on a rate hike by the Bank of Japan next week are weighing on non-yielding gold. That said, expectations that softer inflation in the US will allow the Federal Reserve to cut rates further this year, leading to recent declines in US Treasury yields and the USD, will limit losses for XAU/USD. However, XAU/USD is still on track to end in positive territory for the third consecutive week. Technical Analysis Gold’s path of least resistance remains at 2622-2632-2648, which is seen as a target for BUY signals. Currently, if the gold price closes above 2713, we can BUY now with SL Stoploss set below 2710. In case the H1 candle cannot close above 2713, we will sell to 2700 to have a BUY strategy around the support of 2700. Break 2700, do not buy anymore and wait for 2665 to BUY.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Gold will have a correctionThe US core CPI was lower than expected, a positive sign for gold, increasing the likelihood that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates this year. The market now expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 40 basis points by the end of the year, compared to around 31 basis points before the inflation data. Meanwhile, gold is stuck in the crosshairs of Donald Trump, who is about to start his second term next week. Experts say that imposing tariffs on many types of imports could increase inflation and further limit the Fed's ability to cut interest rates. Many believe that precious metals will have no shortage of bullish catalysts in 2025. According to Chris Mancini, portfolio manager of Gabelli Gold Fund, the main catalyst he is watching is economic uncertainty and the impact on consumer prices.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
BITCOIN Will Move Higher! Long! Take a look at our analysis for BITCOIN. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 101,434.06. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 103,866.34 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by SignalProvider
1
ETHUSD POSSIBLE BUY?The market is currently testing the current Weekly area. Based on Daily TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal pattern which could lead to a possible reversal. We could see BUYERS coming in strong should the current level hold. Disclaimer: Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. High-Risk Warning Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by WiLLProsperForex
"US2000 / Russell / Small Cap" Indices Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "US 2000 / Russell / Small Cap" Indices market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : You can enter a Bull trade after the MA Breakout of 2280.00 however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 4h period, the recent / nearest low or high level. Goal 🎯: 2350.00 (or) escape Before the Target. Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release. Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️ "US2000 / Russell / Small Cap" Indices Market is expected to move in a bullish trend. ECONOMIC INDICATORS: GDP Growth: The US GDP growth rate is expected to remain strong, with a forecast of 2.5% for the next quarter. Inflation: The US inflation rate is expected to remain low, with a forecast of 2.2% for the next quarter. Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates low, with a forecast of no rate hikes for the next quarter. CORPORATE EARNINGS: Earnings Growth: The US2000 index is expected to report strong earnings growth, with a forecast of 10% for the next quarter. Revenue Growth: The US2000 index is expected to report strong revenue growth, with a forecast of 5% for the next quarter. SECTOR ANALYSIS: Technology: The technology sector is expected to lead the US2000 index higher, with a forecast of 15% growth for the next quarter. Healthcare: The healthcare sector is expected to report strong growth, with a forecast of 10% for the next quarter. MARKET SENTIMENT: Bullish Sentiment: 60% Bearish Sentiment: 30% Neutral Sentiment: 10% Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan. Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
TRADENATION:US2000Long
by Thief_Trader
BTC LONG TP:102,000 08-01-2025Bitcoin recently underwent a manipulation that hindered its ability to continue the anticipated growth. However, the key levels have been respected, allowing us to expect a potential upward movement in the coming days. It is likely that the price will return to 102,000 within a span of 4 to 5 days, which shouldn't pose a significant issue. In this context, we will be looking for opportunities to open long positions in the ranges of 94,000 to 92,000, where we believe good entry points may arise.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by ReyDragon21
2
USNAS100 / Pivot Break Could Define Trend DirectionUSNAS100 Technical Analysis The price needs to break the channel and pivot line at 21,380. Closing a 4-hour or 1-hour candle above this level will signal a bullish trend, targeting 21,630. Alternatively, as long as the price remains below 21,385, it is likely to test 21,215. A break below 21,215 would confirm entry into a bearish zone, with further downside targets at 20,980. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 21,385 Resistance Levels: 21,520, 21,630, 21,760 Support Levels: 21,215, 21,090, 20,980
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SroshMayi
BTCUSD LONG SETUP [Read Caption]Hey guys I am here to share you one of the best BTCUSD setup, so do not forget to share your opinion about my chart. Kindly follow me and boost my charts for best BTCUSD setup. BTCUSD is at a major resistance zone 97700/96700 now it is going to break it cause BTCUSD in full bullish trend and it is also making a W pattern so it is possible that BTCUSD can break the resistance and will go to the next resistance that is my first target 99000/99700 and then if it break this resistance then will reach to the next target near 101500/102500. BTCUSD will complete its W pattern if it reach to my target 2. KEYPOINTS: ENTRY 97000 TARGET 1 99000/99700 TARGET 2 101500/102500 CANCEL TRADE 95000 Kindly boost my charts and do not forget to share it with friends and follow me for latest updates on BTCUSD..
OANDA:BTCUSDLong
by Elliana_17
3
Continuation of the consolidation on BTC, short opportunityBesides all the hype around the inauguration of Trump and the technical rebound we have received. the technical picture and the dynamic of the earlier discussed move in my pod suggests the further consolidation, which is likely to continue while also disappointing the crowd We have come to the bearish fvg where also the 50% of the initial manipulation is located , we are also at the psychological 100 k level, which acts as a strong price point either way. I believe we might receive the final sweep locally on 15 min TF where possibly the setup can be found to enter the trade
Short
by itismetrading