Trendreversal
Bayer (BAYN): End of a long 9-year correctionBayer (BAYN): XETR:BAYN
Upon request from one of our members, we're taking a closer look at Bayer AG. We believe that we are still in an overarching Wave II. This wave finds its last true support at the 88.2% retracement level at €24.51. Falling significantly below this level would likely lead us to see a 100% retracement down to €8.48, which would be severe for a company like Bayer, considering its all-time high was at €144. Observing the chart on a 2-day basis, we note that the Wave 5 extension falls into the zone between 50% and 61.8%, which also includes the 88.2% level. This truly is the last turning point Bayer might have.
NVDA dip or correction?
Let's consider the conditions for both scenarios:
1. The Dip and the Continuation of the Trend Scenario
- MACD lines do not cross over. The MACD histogram is starting to rise.
- The force index is rising again.
- The bulls are looking for a bounce from the first line of defense, around the low of the day at $124.40. This is exactly what is happening so far today.
2. The Correction Scenario
- The first line of defence is breached.
- The second line of defence is breached.
- MACD lines cross over, and the MACD histogram falls below 0.
- The force index falls below 0.
What do you think? Please comment below with Scenario 1 or 2.
STRKUSDT | Change in Trend?Is this the bottom? STRKUSDT is showing a potentially game-changing head and shoulders pattern, and we've just seen an impressive 8H candle bounce off the resistance level!
Trade Setup
This setup looks incredibly promising, with the target price of 1.8 aligning perfectly with the head and shoulders pattern target. With a solid 3:1 risk-reward ratio, this trade is shaping up to be a fantastic opportunity.
Could this be the trend reversal we've been waiting for? Let's see how it plays out!
USD/CAD Trend reset - Buy ContinuationMomentum preceeds prices!
The USDCAD has had a trend reset (Secondary Trend), which is key to the Up-trend continuation.
The structural point for trend reversal is 1.3656, we want to see a second breakdown below the structure without breaking below 1.3624. A trade back above 1.3656 will be the first buy, confirmation will be a trade above 1.3671.
In terms of Target, we will use the Fibonacci retracement from the low to the high of 3.
Target 1: 1.3780
Target 2: 1.3838
Initial Stop Loss: 1.3624
GU needs to give us a directionLast week was impulsive and continuing to push bullish. The dollar has not has any significant news to push it in either direction so the rest of the market is moving in response to the dollar. As this week opens we are getting close to summer months. Will allow price to open and find a direction before reacting.
Buy the wave of disbelief - GBP/USDThe downtrend has been confirmed after a break of 1.2466.
We have just seen the Official Bank Rate in the GBP, the news summary is below:
Bank Rate held @ 5.25%
Monetary policy is working as expected and inflation is expected to reach its target of 2%.
However, they do not feel the time is right to cut the interest rate.
Andrew Bailey said he cannot rule out a small rate cut in June.
GBPUSD:
The idea is to buy the current swing (wave of disbelief), this is expected to be a strong reversal to clear all the stops above the current price. This wave should not take the high of last week's 1.2634, but we are expecting the 1.2564 to be broken before we can start to think of selling again.
4015_Possible Trend reversal (Bullish setup)4015
**Bullish Points:**
Price at significant support level (Volume profile) confluence with 78% fib level
Bullish divergence is observed
Small entry can be taken now (Aggressive)
Further entry can be taken after descending channel breakout, or
at next support level 118.6 (DCA strategy)
**Bearish Points:**
Price is moving in downtrend, series of LH/LL
H&S pattern breakdown and retest of neckline
Current stop loss is specified
Trail stop loss if price goes up
Place SL below 118 (DCA strategy)
Downside Participation - AUD/USD Buy Now, Sell laterHi Traders,
Based on my Weekly Trade planning session, we have seen an indication that the USD is strengthening again. The AUD/USD has broken down two consecutive structures (Downside Participation), a clear indication that the trend is resuming to the downside.
However, immediately after participation, the traders will demand a discount. The simple reason is; that the price is too low and doesn't represent a good value. If the request is successful, the price will rally to the last structure without breaking the high that created the Downside participation.
This is the scenario that is currently happening in the AUD/USD.
This is a low-risk trade; Stop Loss:0.6464, profit target: 0.6537.
USDCAD Analysis: Shorting Opportunity with Head and Shoulders Se- Trade Strategy: Head and Shoulders Trading
- Key Levels: Retest of Right Shoulder at 1.3778
- Profit Potential: Initial target of 50 pips, with potential for further downside
Analysis:
- Trade Strategy: Shorting Opportunity with Head and Shoulders Setup
- Key Levels: Looking for a retest of the right shoulder at 1.3778 or neckline
- Profit Potential: Initial target of 50 pips, with potential for greater downside movement
Trade Plan:
- Shorting Opportunity: Consider shorting upon retest of the right shoulder at 1.3778 or neckline
- Profit Target: Initial target set at 50 pips, with potential for further downside movement
- Risk Management: Implement effective risk management techniques to mitigate potential losses
Insights:
The USDCAD presents a compelling shorting opportunity with the formation of a Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4-hourly chart. While the initial target offers a modest profit potential of 50 pips, the broader setup indicates the potential for further downside movement. Exercise caution and closely monitor price action for confirmation of the trading setup.
📉 Seize the shorting opportunity presented by the USDCAD's Head and Shoulders pattern, with potential for significant downside movement beyond the initial target!
NASDAQ: Potential Bearish Reversal - Short SetupThesis:
Geopolitical uncertainty (war) may trigger risk-off sentiment.
Sideways price action suggests distribution pattern forming.
Bearish divergence on higher timeframes indicates weakening momentum.
ABCD pattern supports a potential reversal from the distribution zone.
Entry:
Short below the distribution support level (yellow rectangle on your chart).
Stop Loss:
Above the distribution resistance level (yellow rectangle on your chart).
Target:
Open to interpretation based on your risk-reward profile, but consider key support levels below.
Risk Management:
Clearly define your risk tolerance and position size before entering the trade.
Notes:
This is a swing trade idea, so a longer time horizon may be required.
Keep an eye on news and economic data releases that could impact market sentiment.
Manage your trade actively and adjust your stops as needed.
SMCI LONGBullish Context: Monthly uptrend, weekly uptrend
Price Position: Near last month low
Pattern: price has shaped daily uptrend (higher low and higher high); weekly higher low is set
This is an opportunity for LONG play with profit target near previous month high. In order for this setup to work price must first break through synthetic diagonal resistance; in case of pullback bulls must protect last daily low (881)
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
Tencent Major Trend ReboundHKEX:700 after years of down trend it is showing some sign of trend bottoming. Mainly supported by company share-buyback in the past few weeks.
While selling pressure from the market is not strong to pull the price lower after each selling. This is indicating that the selling pressure is weak. Which supports the kick start of a bullish trend.
In short term, the price movement continue to show bullish where the selling pressure erased with price marking back higher after sell down in the past 3 trading days. A short term rebound from recent retrace is on the way.
S&P bears attack, bulls still holdLast week was marked by the aggressiveness of sellers and the resilience of buyers. On Monday Buyers were ideally positioned for another break out but they didn’t have enough steam to accomplish it. Sellers, long awaiting their opportunity, pushed the price down, breaking the weekly support. However, they couldn’t develop this into something more significant, as the bulls returned with a firm "no". The rest of the week continued in the same tug-of-war fashion.
The most confusing days were Thursday and Friday. Thursday started very bullish but ended with a dramatic bearish turn. Friday, expected to be bearish, unfolded under the bulls' control.
This was a story. Now, let’s now review all the signals more formally:
Bearish Signals
• Confirmed downtrend on the daily chart, indicated by a lower high and lower low.
• Weekly consolidation has begun.
Bullish Signals
• The week closed right at the previous week's low after price shaped hourly higher low
• Friday’s value zone is within the value zone of the previous four days.
The context remains very bullish – price is in a strong weekly uptrend, last month closed very strong. Overall, it is a very ambiguous case with neither side having a clear advantage. Buyers are exhausted, yet not willing to capitulate. Bears are attempting to play their game but lack sufficient strength.
The short-term outlook is neutral. From this position market can go in any direction. We need additional signs of one side gaining an upper hand. Until then, it is not advisable to place big bets on either side.
Wednesday is a very important day, with both the release of inflation data and the FOMC meeting
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.