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US02Y-US10Y

Perhaps a 'Santa Rally' is just one step away to begin in 2024Stock markets often enjoy a seasonal share boost during the festive period. It's been two unpredictable year for stock markets after gloomy 2022 but all we are, traders, investors, TradingViewers are hoping for a successful end-of-year boost in the form of a so-called Santa rally. Shares have much wide, breather and better performance so far in 2024, amid trade and geopolitical tensions, high inflation and high interest rate. So... while children are compiling their Christmas lists, traders also want some sweet candies. Traditionally, festive cheer and holiday household spending make the markets more optimistic during the holiday season, boosting investor portfolios. But will 2024 follow the trend? The "Santa rally", a term coined in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, "describes a tendency for the stock market to go up by 1% to 2%" over final five trading days of the outgoing year and the first two of the new one, said Forbes Advisor . This period has "historically" shown higher stock prices in the S&P 500 SP:SPX 79.2% of the time, says Investopedia . What drives the Santa rally? Reasons for the Santa rally are vary and one explanation is the cheery "end of year mood" that means investors are in more of a "buying temperament" rather than selling shares, which pushes up stock prices Will there be a Santa rally this year? Probably, Yes. September quarter capped off the best 12-months return (+36.36%) for S&P500 Index since the pandemic stock market recovery in 2020, so there are a lot of hopes that stars will align, and momentum in the markets, helped by declining U.S. interest rate, will push prices higher in the run-up to Christmas. Sure, there is "no guarantee", though. Sometimes it happens. Sometimes it is not. The odds of a Santa rally may be in your favor, but the "best option" (author's opinion) is to do nothing, remain invested and be "pleasantly surprised" by another strong month by the new year. The main technical graph for S&P500 Index says that we right now.. already somewhere above to 6'000 points for SPX Index, and just one step to break it out to reach the next one half-a-mile, i.e. 6'500 points by the end of the year. Just follow the major upside trend, that's been taken earlier this summer. And that is all. Merry Christmas y'all, TradingViewers! See you in a Happy New 2025 Year! 💖💖
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by Pandorra
3
Very close to Yield Curve Inversion, AGAINAfter #InterestRates were cut people were expecting a furious wave of buying, this has not come into fruition. Recent events: 2Yr Yield rallied substantially. 10Yr #Yield bottomed when we called it, has not run as much as it's shorter term counterpart. We're close to inversion again! Colored areas = POTENTIAL Inverse Head & Shoulder = BOTTOM. Worth noting, TVC:TNX has a higher right shoulder. Further analysis: We are seeing a Negative Divergence on $DJI. Volume has been lessening as the days go by. TVC:RUT Small Caps are LOWER and trading in a tightening range.
TVC:US02Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
U.S. Dollar Index is near to fall. Soon..The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against basket of other six major currencies, extends its losses for the 5th consecutive week in a row, hovering below 102 points during the U.S. regular hours on Monday, August 19. Over the past week, Gold spot (XAUUSD) has topped $2500 per ounce psychological high also, minting new all the history peak, while Forex Eur/Usd (EURUSD) pair just has flashed a positive 2024 YTD return, jumping above 1.10 psychological degree. The US Dollar continues to weaken following dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, which have increased a new portion of expectations for an interest rate cut by the central bank in September. Furthermore, last week’s US economic data revealed that both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) suggest that inflation is easing. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly stressed on Sunday that the US central bank should adopt a gradual approach to lowering borrowing costs, according to the Financial Times. Daly countered economists' concerns that the US economy is facing a sharp slowdown that would warrant rapid interest rate cuts. Additionally, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee cautioned that central bank officials should be careful not to maintain a restrictive policy longer than necessary. Although it's uncertain whether the Fed will cut interest rates next month, failing to do so could negatively impact the labor market, according to CNBC. Additionally, the decline in the US yields contributes to downward pressure for the Greenback. 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds stand at 4.05% and 3.85%, respectively, at the time of writing. This week, all eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech. In a bottom line, the major technical graph for the US Dollar Index (DXY) indicates on possible huge decline for the next upcoming 12 to 18 months. The secondary RSI(14) graph indicates also, the bearish sentiment prevails.
TVC:DXY
by Pandorra
Gold predicting that Big falling rates cycle has almost overThere are several factors that can drive gold prices up in long term. Some of the key factors include: 1. Global Economic Uncertainty: Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty or market volatility. Investors tend to flock to gold as a store of value when traditional investments like stocks and bonds are perceived as risky. 2. Inflation: Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation. When inflation is high and inflation expectations are going even higher, the purchasing power of fiat currencies decreases, leading investors to turn to gold as a way to preserve their wealth. 3. Geopolitical Tensions: Political instability, conflicts, and geopolitical tensions can also drive up gold prices. In times of uncertainty or conflict, investors may seek the safety of gold as a reliable asset. 4. Central Bank Policies: The monetary policies of central banks, such as interest rate decisions and quantitative easing measures, can impact gold prices. While investors thoughts that lower interest rates and expansionary monetary policies tend to be supportive of higher gold prices are widespread, in reality - higher due to inflationary concerns interest rates are more supportive for gold prices. 5. Demand and Supply: Like any commodity, gold prices are influenced by supply and demand dynamics. Factors such as jewelry demand, industrial demand, and gold production levels can all impact the price of gold. These are just a few of the factors that can drive gold prices up. It's important to note that gold prices can be influenced by a wide range of economic, geopolitical, and market factors. The main Graph is an Annual chart for ratio between Gold prices in US Dollars (XAUUSD) and US Inflation (USCPI). In technical terms this graph indicates that 40-years deflationary plateau, and monetary cycle of falling USD rates has almost over, while due to mentioned above reasons, Gold can start its ride to outperform inflation within many upcoming years.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Pandorra
Yields are in a do or die situationYields are pulling back a bit from the run they had yesterday. It was expected to have a bounce at the support levels. The 2Yr & 10Yr #Yield both look as if they want to settle a bit but time till tell . We will see how Yield reacts over the next few days. It is important as a crashing yield can mean higher prices all across the board in many assets. We've stated before that they CANNOT lower rates but at the same time CANNOT raise them. Seems as if they are playing around a bit providing liquidity to keep markets propped up a bit AND they may keep rates steady or just have 1 rate drop, before election. TVC:TNX
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Interest Rates look decently strongThe 2Yr yield has paced itself recently. The 10Yr #yield is picking up steam. Both went from a bearish moving average crossover, circles, to a bullish (Data not seen here, more info in profile) 2Yr is almost @ last years bank failure rates. 10Yr has been trading mostly above. Weekly 2Yr looks like it wants to skyrocket, if breaking out of the ascending triangle pattern. 10Yr has been treading higher, along its trend line. TVC:TNX Fed is in a catch 22. Cannot raise rates, more things will break BUT it but cannot lower, inflation.
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Long 10Y, Short 2Y on Yield Curve NormalisationWorld's most important and the largest financial market is the US Treasury. Annual issuance of U.S. Treasuries has exploded. A record USD 23 trillion of treasuries were issued in 2023. This market is experiencing gradual but notable shifts due to the Federal Reserve (Fed) recent tapering of quantitative tightening and the Treasury buyback. Collective impact has led to demand divergence across different maturities. The yield curve starting to normalize once more. Economic outlook impacts the yield curve. Not only that, the Fed’s quantitative tightening (“QT”) campaign also has an enormous influence. At its most recent FOMC meeting, Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed would start to slow its balance sheet runoff. The runoff results in supply contraction enabling greater demand for long-term treasuries and a subsequent yield curve normalization. Runoff refers to the reduction in Fed’s balance sheet as they opt to let their treasury holdings mature without renewing them. This activity leads to a supply contraction. RECENT HAWKISH FED MEETING CAME WITH A CAVEAT Since 2022, the Fed has been engaged in a QT campaign. Raising rates is its primary tool. Balance Sheet reduction is an additional strategy to manage monetary environment. The Fed first announced that it would start to reduce holdings of US treasuries at a fixed pace at its May 2022 meeting. The pace of reduction accelerated as Fed stepped up QT. Treasury runoff has continued at a fixed pace since then. At the April FOMC meeting, Fed announced its decision to slowdown the runoff. In other words, Fed would start to let treasuries to mature at a slower pace. Starting from the first of June, the Fed will decrease the maximum amount of treasuries that can mature without being replaced from USD 60 billion per month to USD 25 billion. Fed’s outlook on rate cuts was hawkish. But its resolve to taper runoff is dovish signalling the Fed’s end of QT campaign through balance sheet reduction. Treasury runoff tapering impact will be noticed additional liquidity before rate cuts arrive. HOLDINGS & RUN-OFF IS AIMED AT LONG-TERM TREASURIES Fed’s QT via treasury holdings is implemented through the non-renewal of existing holdings. Crucially, the impact of letting treasuries mature is more pronounced on long-term treasuries than short term ones. As short-term treasuries mature more often, the impact of this run-off on near-term treasury demand is limited. In contrast, the impact on long-dated expiries is more pronounced. Analysing the cumulative run-off since May 2022, the largest impact on long-term treasuries has been on 5 to 10 years category which consists primarily of 10-Year notes. This run-off has been particularly high over the last few months. On the contrary, the holdings of 10+ year treasuries have increased. Source – Federal Reserve TAPERING RUNOFF SUGGESTS IMPROVEMENT IN LONG-TERM TREASURY DEMAND Impact on benchmark 10-Year treasuries will be most pronounced as the Fed moves to slow the pace of its runoff. Longer maturities have lagged near-term ones at recent auctions. It was most apparent at the latest auctions. The 10-Year treasury auction raised USD 42B, that is far higher than the average over the last twelve auctions at USD 31B. While the bid-to-cover was higher than the previous auction in April, it was below the average over the last twelve auctions. Indirect bidding was below average at 65.5%. Overall, this suggests an unimpressive result. In sharp contrast, 3-Year treasury auction showed strong demand. It raised USD 58B, the highest since 2021. Bid-to-cover was higher than the last auction. Non-dealer bidding was also above average at 85.1% (81.7% average). Similarly, the Treasury 5-Year auction raised USD 70B with an above average non-dealer bidding. Both 3-Year and 5-Year auction results were much stronger. As observed through the CME TreasuryWatch Tool , the demand for 2-year treasuries has been noticeably higher, as suggested by the bid-to-cover ratios, compared to 10-year and 30-year treasuries. Source – CME TreasuryWatch FED’S TAPERING TO FUEL 10Y SPREAD TO OUTPERFORM 5Y SPREAD Yield curve is normalizing once more following the decline in the 10Y-2Y spread at the start of 2024. This trend is likely to continue as yields for longer dated maturities rise higher than near-term maturities. Mint Finance highlighted previously that the 5Y-2Y spread is likely to outperform the 10Y-2Y spread. However, as Fed starts to taper its balance sheet run-off, the impact is likely to be felt strongest at the 10Y maturity allowing demand for these treasuries to rise once more. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Fed’s balance sheet runoff slowdown and the underperformance of the 10Y-2Y spread relative to the 5Y-2Y spread, the 10Y-2Y spread has potential outperform in the near term as the yield curve turns to normalcy. To harness gains from this normalization, investors can opt to execute a spread trade consisting of Yield futures. CME Yield futures are quoted directly in yield with a one basis point change in the yield representing a P&L of USD 10. As yield futures across various maturities represent the same notional, spread P&L calculations are equally intuitive with a one basis point change in the spread between two separate maturities also adding up to a P&L of USD 10. • Entry: -32.3 basis points • Target: -28.3 basis points • Stop Loss: -35.3 basis points • Profit at Target: USD 400 • Loss at Stop: USD 300 • Reward to Risk: 1.3x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by mintdotfinance
$US10Y -Important Close *Weekly- US 10 Years Government Bonds(Yield) TVC:US10Y experienced a pull back in the fourth week of August, after having rallied previously for five (5) consecutive Weeks, printing only green *W candlesticks. The Weekly pullback retraced to a Weekly price level of 4.09% for $U10Y (key level marked on dashed green line) We can clearly see TVC:DXY being dragged higher as well during Yields uptrend (indicating a weak and fearful state of other Major Financial Markets). Seen on Weekly Timeframe, we can easily spot a triangle pattern being formed on $US10Y. Triangle Pattern's Apex can be stretched as far as 238Days from where it currently is. In case Pattern is violated to the downside, a considerable Support-Resistance zone lays just underneath dating back ever since 1912. Below that would be the catching up dynamic support of 200EMA on the Weekly, as well the support-trendline coming from Pandemic Lows. TVC:US10Y uptrend resumption seems very likely from here, especially after bouncing at the key level marked on dashed green line. What is more important to be monitored is the correlation of TVC:DXY going higher in the same time with TVC:US10Y . That would be a nightmare scenario for an investor, and a golden opportunity for those who are on the sidelines and waiting to be heavily invested in diversification .
TVC:US10Y
by Mr_J__fx
🧽 Mister Poper. Meet The Cleaner Of Your DreamsCopper price continued to provide negative trades affected by the frequent stability below the additional barrier at 3.7280, to manage to reach some negative stations by touching 3.6100. Also, RSI stochastic continues to provide the negative momentum to allow us to suggest forming new negative waves to attack the additional support near 3.5000 followed by monitoring its behavior to manage to confirm the upcoming trend. The expected trend: Bearish
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Pandorra
Combined Macro Charts For You!I'm a big fan of exotic charts. It is often tough to gauge the current markets by looking at individual charts so sometimes I like to combine them together. Here is a rough rationale of this chart: TOTAL Crypto Total seems to have a good representation small cap behavior and is often a leading indicator of the broader risk-on market. S&P Large caps, historically it's a trailing indicator, but doesn't have such a long tail as Treasury Yields. 1/DXY Relatively good indicator of impedance changes. If I'm going to convert my dollars to something else, and then back again, it represents relatively how efficient the economic circuit is. More volatility = conflicting expectations by the market. It is sometimes inversely correlated with risk assets but not always. US02Y/US10Y Inverted 10Y/02Y. How are investors feeling about the short-term economy vs long-term? When this symbol experiences large downward volatility, the relative health of debt in the economy is unveiled and investors flee risk-on assets. I weighted each of these symbols 25% by using the 3 Year MA: ...........................3Y.MA......................factor TOTAL................1049933961759.....1 ES1!..................3723.74..................281956839 1/DXY...............0.010448................100491382251052 US02Y/US10Y..0.4784....................2194678013710 (sorry about all the dots, I had to use it to make it line up) Here is the resulting symbol: CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839+US02Y/US10Y*2194678013710 Normalized to 100: (CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839+US02Y/US10Y*2194678013710)/67060000000 Here is the index without Treasury Yields, so each remaining symbol is now 33% of the chart: CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839 Normalized to 100: (CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839)/53870000000 Here is the chart, normalized to 100 along with some rough expectations: I hope that this is somehow useful. The overall conclusion here seems to indicate the macro environment is currently not friendly at all. Thanks for taking a look and I hope you enjoyed this idea. Hopefully it makes sense and I don't believe there are any major mistakes. If you spot a mistake, or have an exotic chart of your own you would like to share, please let me know! Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets. Take care and be safe. - your fringe chartist
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by fringe_chartist
2
Forget All Other ChartsIgnore all the other charts right now. They are based on DOLLARS. The dollar is permanently unstable and your imperialist overlords are here to take away your spending power. We're due to see bearish action similar to April 5th (pink dot). The question is, will we see a lower high in relative yields, or will we set a higher low and possibly become uninverted, and return above 1.0 once again? Consider that we just set a higher high in the S&P medium term and it could have simply been a move to fool the crowd. On the other hand, debt is at all time highs, and rates even at this level mean systemic insolvency. Raising rates further means quicker insolvency. I say just get it over with or don't do it at all. Inflation year over year is, realistically, 20-40%, each year since 2020. Key interest rates aren't even 10% of that. There is no way they will be able to control this in any way, shape or form, or manufacture a so called "soft landing". Rates rise >1.0 = total collapse, then easing Rates bounce <1.0 = unrealistic rally blow off top, more tightening to trigger the crash I think I used too many arrows but hopefully it makes sense. Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets.
TVC:US10Y
by fringe_chartist
11
Yield curve inversion cyclesUS10Y treasury yield minus US02Y treasury yield is an accurate predictor of impending economic recession. Here we compare the 10 Aug 2022 yield curve inversion low point to the low points in 2007 and 2000 that pre-dated the Great Recession and Dot Com stock market crashes. While a small inversion (below 0) does not always pre-date a recession, inversions as low as the current 10 Aug 2022 always have. Even more interesting is when you zoom in to the daily chart. Here we see the 10Y - 2Y moving back towards 0 from 10 Aug 2022 through 22 Aug 2022, even as stocks have begun to decline since release of the Fed minutes and recent commentary from Fed officials about the importance of continuing with additional rate hikes based on current inflation data.
TVC:US10Y
by theagileagent
5
US10Y-US02Y Yields Are Steepening NOWAhead of incredibly important CPI data to be released tomorrow, we are seeing yields steepen in a very dramatic fashion. In comparison to each of the last 3 inversions, this one is not even close to the past. It is important to understand that when yields steepen , it systematically leads to downside in the SPX/NASDAQ. It has been the indicator of almost every recession since 1980 . Now we can't jump to conclusions just yet, we can only try to anticipate what comes next. Tomorrow key CPI data gets released which is why markets are selling off in the face of it. This data will be the reason for the next move up or down. Focusing back on the chart, we can see just how far yields have deviated from the 200MA. In comparison to the past, this is the farthest divergence on record. IF yields were to retest that 200MA, it would almost certainly lead the markets down a very dark path rather quickly. We are seeing a clear momentum gain on the RSI to match this. Now let's take a look at the previous two inversions not shown in the chart; (2000, 2008) First, take note of where the 200MA is here in comparison to now. Second, notice when yields are Steepening the SPX is falling. They have an inverse correlation. Take a look at how extended the NASDAQ is still; The same can be said about the SPX; There are very significant moves being made in the markets at this moment, and it will take absolute diligence to ensure survivability if the markets take us down a dark path ahead. For now, pay attention to the data tomorrow. If it is optimistic, we could see some short-term relief. If it is worse than anticipated, watch CLOSELY! The projected CPI tomorrow is 8.4% . That's your best case going into tomorrow (April 12th) . Use it as a measure.
TVC:US10Y
by NoOneWhoIsSomeone
4