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Volatilitycontraction

AUDJPY: Bearish Wave Poised for Targets around 98.77Hello Traders, Trust trading has been awesome. Find below my analysis of AUDJPY currency pair. Current Price: 99.738 The pair shows bearish sentiment across the H4, H1, and M30 timeframes, with a downward trend firmly established (as price keeps making lower highs and lower lows). Momentum indicators suggest strong bearish pressure; however, the price is currently consolidating within a narrow range, limiting immediate directional movement. Bias: Bearish, as long as the price remains below the key resistance level at 99.997, and we see a breakout of the consolidation range (Squeeze). Targets First Target: 98.770 Second Target: 98.108 Ultimate Target: 97.816 This bearish outlook is further supported by Elliott Wave analysis, with the potential for a downward move fulfilling the Wave 5 projection of the current impulsive wave, provided the price stays below 100.048.
Short
by Samuel124
1
Clearwater Analytics, volatility contration before breakoutClearwater Analytics provides SaaS solutions for investment data aggregation, accounting, analytics, and reporting services The 3-month highs and 6-month highs list is full of financials with some software, and NYSE:CWAN is making 52-week highs Is the #1 in the IBD industry rank with a 91 relative strength rating, clearly a market leader and is only making its first base within its uptrend Its key the price respect the $22 zone for its trend to continue.
NYSE:CWANLong
by dpuleo19
1
MAX INDIA - Excellent Daily VCP Poised for a minimum 20% upmove.1) The stock is in uptrend in all major timeframes. 2) The stock is in weekly consolidation since JAN 2024 - 4 Months old weekly consolidation. 3) The stock shows strong volatility contraction in Daily, looks poised for breakout. 4) Weekly,Daily,4H & 75 min RSI Intact - Momentum in play. Entry around 230, Best - Between 215-220. SL - 214 Daily closing basis. Target - 330. Follow me on my channel for regular updates.
NSE:MAXINDLong
by Rugminik
1
BTCUSD in reversal SHORTBTCUSD on a 60-minute chart had been ascending in a channel but now has broken down and has dropped below the channel support trendline. As to whether it will retest that trendline which is now resistance remains to be seen. However, the MACD lines are under the zero level and RSI lines under 50, lends support to a reversal at this time. Volatility is contracting and price compressing in a symmetrical triangle with the bias bearish at this time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by AwesomeAvani
Bollinger Bands—Part 1: The BasicsIntroduction Imagine that you are placed on an island with only a trading platform (TradingView of course) and the island gods only permitted three indicators. What three indicators would you carefully select? At the top of my list would be the Bollinger Bands. Some people seek out complex or cryptic indicators in search for a better edge. Of course, some indicators and modes of anlaysis can be very useful despite being complex. But some indicators like the Bollinger Bands, can be valuable because of their simplicity, and they can also have a wealth of analytical value that is more complicated than would appear at a glance. In 1983, John Bollinger invented the eponymous Bollinger Bands. This valuable indicator operates centrally on the concept of standard deviation. In other words, standard deviation is a basic statistical concept behind the indicator, i.e., this concept is basic for mathematics professors and experts, but perhaps intermediate to advanced level for others. Standard Deviation One can easily find the common standard-deviation formula on the internet from many reputable sources. But one doesn't have to master the formula to use the concept of standard deviation—standard deviation essentially measures the variation in the data points around a mean (or average). Khan Academy offers a very useful and insightful guide to those who want to learn the core concepts of standard deviation. Supplemental Chart A contains Khan Academy's standard-deviation illustration and its well-worded explanation, although no one alive today can take credit for discovering and establishing this formula. Supplemental Chart A (Credit to Khan Academy's website for illustration with explanation of standard deviation) Here is a short, somewhat summary explanation of standard deviation's formula (though it doesn't apply to standard deviation of samples, a slightly different formula). Calculate the mean of a data set (e.g., a price series). Calculate each data point's distance, or variance, from that mean. The distance between each data point and the mean is then squared. Sum all the squared distances between each data point and the mean. Divide the sum of the squared distances by the total number of data points, or values in the data set. Take the square root of the quotient from the previous step, which is the average of all data points' squared distances from the mean. Moving Calculations Having identified the statistical concept at the heart of the bands' operation, it helps to remember that the moving average at the center of the bands, sometimes called the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, mean that the entire indicator should be considered a "moving indicator." In other words, even the standard-deviation bands, plotted a given number of standard deviations above or below the moving average, are moving based on the price data that evolves as time passes. Just like the moving average at the center of the bands continues to calculate the mean based on a moving lookback window of 20 periods or some other fixed number of periods, the standard deviations above and below the mean also derive from a moving lookback window. Analysis / Interpretation Bollinger Bands, as John Bollinger described in the journal Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, "answer the question whether prices are high or low on a relative basis." He further explained that the "bands do not give absolute buy and sell signals simply by having been touched; rather, they provide a framework within which price may be related to indicators." He essentially recommended comparing price in relation to the bands and then using the action at the edges of the bands and using such signals in combination with another well-selected indicator (e.g., one might consider RSI). As created by Bollinger, the bands are typically set at +2 and –2 standard deviations above the mean. This can be adjusted on TradingView's platform. A well known trader, Anthony Crudele, uses the Bollinger Bands set at +3 and –3 standard deviations from the mean. He also uses the bands extensively as part of his system, and he does so with some unique and interesting features that he added. This author recommends following his videos regardless of whether his strategy is ultimately followed or adopted or whether some other strategy is adopted as most suitable for a particular asset or time frame. The bands not only measure whether price is high or low on a relative basis. But importantly, they reveal realized-volatility conditions in the market. If price volatility (or variation from the mean without regard to direction) is expanding in a trend-like move on the specific time frame being examined, whether hourly, daily, weekly, monthly or longer, then the Bollinger Bands reveal this by opening and widening, much like jaws. The jaws of the bands contract when volatility is contracting. Volatility—implied and realized—tends toward cycles and mean reversion. So the bands helpfully show traders where volatility is within its cycle. Some traders, for example, use the bands to trade squeezes, and when the bands contract for a substantial period of consolidation and narrow significantly. The squeeze helps increase the probability of a volatility expansion, a potential a widening of the bands as price moves either in the direction of the prior trend or a reversal. As with other indicators, the significance of the signal should be interpreted in the context of the time frame being analyzed. Supplemental Chart B In Supplemental Chart B, notice how the Bollinger Bands contracted as price consolidated in the latter part of last year on the weekly chart of SPY. The Bollinger Bands have been expanding as price has pushed higher to new highs at the degree of trend shown, i.e., the uptrend from 2022 lows to present. Conclusion The Bollinger Bands provide more analytical tools and features than the ones described today. If readers are interested in a more in-depth post on Bollinger Bands (perhaps a Part 2 as contemplated by the title), please indicate this in the comments! Look forward to hearing from you. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by SquishTrade
2
DIA DOW ETF ShortDIA tracking the DOW widely in an ETF format on the two hour chart had a 7% rise in the past month which was widely followed in the investment media. I believe that it was a bull trap. In the past week price action has been sideways while the Stochastic RSI shows bearish divergence as does the zero lag MACD. Tradign Volumes has fallen off since burst of buying volume in mid and late November which pushed the price up 7%. In the past week, relative volatility has fallen off in general and now negative volatility exceeds positive. I believe that this is a top for the time being. A short position will be taken of 10 shares with a stop above the top at 363 The target is 342 just above the POC line, where high liquidity and volatility will return as long positions, would pile back in there and get a bounce or even a squeeze. This would be about a reward of 8 for a risk of 2, which seems reasonable. I will however take a 1/3 partial at 350 where the Fibonacci retracement comes into play. The SDOW ETF would be another way to play this idea.
AMEX:DIAShort
by AwesomeAvani
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/15/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2023 - PR High: 15316.25 - PR Low: 15273.75 - NZ Spread: 95.0 08:30 – Retail Sales Maintaining relatively wide NZ Spread - MNQ Balance: 15295.25 - 15314.25 - Strong inventory response prev 2 sessions' low - Daily pivot created, engulfing Friday's range Evening Stats (As of 12:15 AM) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Session Gap: -0.33% (open > 15807) - Session Gap: -0.11% (open > 15939) - Session Open ATR: 233.68 - Volume: 33K - Open Int: 260K - Trend Grade: Neutral - From ATH: -8.7% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 16105 - Mid: 15247 - Short: 14961 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQU2023
by mv3trader5
Will $MSTR finally become a market leader?The leader of the industry right now is NASDAQ:MDB , but those not have any exposure to the #crypto market. MicroStrategy provides enterprise-ready analytics, mobility and security software platforms for various industries. Historically, NASDAQ:MSTR has outperformed AMEX:BITQ , I chose this ETF as a proxy of its peers as is better balanced than $AMEX:CRPT. Since the beginning of the year, the stock its been in a bottoming process as the volatility continues to decline. And its relative strength line is in a trading range. Recently, they announced a new multi-year partnership with NASDAQ:MSFT that will integrate MicroStrategy’s advanced analytics capabilities with Azure OpenAI Service. Maybe this added to the volatlity contraction can help the price to breakout above $350 and start trending higher.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by dpuleo19
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/14/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2023 - PR High: 15123.00 - PR Low: 15104.75 - NZ Spread: 40.75 !FOMC DAY! Holding the highs of yesterday's range. High volatility expected, AMP increased margins to 25%. Economic Events: 08:30 – PPI 10:30 – Crude Oil Inventories 14:00 – FOMC Economic Projections FOMC Statement Fed Interest Rate Decision 14:30 – FOMC Press Conference Evening Stats (As of 12:15 AM) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Session Open ATR: 214.20 - Volume: 15K - Open Int: 199K - Trend Grade: Neutral - From ATH: -10.0% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 15247 - Mid: 14675 - Short: 14103 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQM2023Short
by mv3trader5
The Fed Must Pivot When This Happens...We can try to predict when the Federal Reserve may pivot to a less hawkish stance by using charts. Below are some helpful charts. 1. Money Supply The chart shown above is a monthly chart of the U.S. money supply (M2SL). The white line shows the money supply over time. Below the white line is a stepped moving average (9 period), which I consider the 'steps of a debt-based economy'. In order for our debt-based economy to persist, the money supply must continue moving up these steps endlessly. For reasons beyond the scope of this post, if the money supply falls much below this level a financial crisis is likely to ensue due to credit and liquidity issues. Below are some examples in which money supply came down to the stepped moving average before climbing higher. Not even during periods of higher inflation did the Federal Reserve let the money supply fall below this level. Therefore, the closer the money supply comes to this stepped-moving average, the more likely we are to see the Fed pivot to a less hawkish stance. Since money supply is largely negatively correlated to the value of all assets priced in U.S. dollar, reaching this level may also be somewhat of a buy signal for these assets (e.g. stocks, Bitcoin). Indeed, the fact that money supply always goes up is a large part of the reason why the stock market always goes up, too. Whereas if inflation becomes so severe that it forces the Fed to take the unprecedented step of dropping the money supply below this critical level, then a financial crisis will likely ensue. Indeed, under the surface a crisis is already brewing. (You can see my posts linked below for more charts on this). 2. Eurodollar Futures It is generally accepted that the Eurodollar Futures chart is one of the best leading indicators for the Fed Funds Rate. (Don't know what Eurodollar Futures are? See the link at the bottom of this post.) Therefore, when Eurodollar Futures plateau or begin dropping, we can expect a Fed pivot. However, this assumes that the Fed Funds rate has actually reached the terminal rate implied by Eurodollar Futures, which has not yet happen because the Fed is so far behind the curve with hiking. Keep an eye on how markets react to quad witching on September 16th, the time at which stock-index futures, options on stock-index futures, single-stock options and index options simultaneously expire. This period has been known to generate significant volatility. See the bottom of this post for more information about quad witching if you're unfamiliar with it. 3. Yield Curve Inversion Usually around the time or shortly after the yield curve inverts, the Fed pivots to a less hawkish stance. Right now the 10-year and 2-year yields on treasuries are inverted. Below is a chart of the US10Y/US02Y ratio. In the below chart, I marked the points at which the Fed pivoted in the past (pivots were measured by marking the last date the Fed raised rates). The values that you see labeled on the bottom right are the values of the US10Y/US02Y ratio at the time the Fed pivoted in past hiking cycles. In the chart below, I zoomed into the current time. As you can see, the US10Y/US02Y ratio is currently below all the levels at which the Fed previously pivoted. Green is the highest ratio at which the Fed pivoted and red is the lowest ratio at which the Fed pivoted. The chart above shows that we are in uncharted territory in the scope of yield curve inversion that the Fed has created. The fact that the Fed has forced the yield curve invert to this extreme degree and has still not pivoted is likely reflective of one or both of the following hypotheses: (1) The Fed started hiking rates too late. (2) The factors of inflation from the demand side and/or supply side are worse than we experienced in the past (since at least 1988 -- the period covered by the data in the chart). Nonetheless, the Fed must pivot soon or risk causing a financial crisis. My hypothesis is that an inverted yield curve can have the effect, among others, of destroying money. Since some banks borrow at short term rates and lend at long term rates, an inverted yield curve makes this less profitable or even unprofitable. Therefore some banks will lend less. Since bank lending creates the most money, an inverted yield curve can decrease the money supply substantially. The Fed cannot let this monetary phenomenon continue for long without causing significant issues. 4. Inflation Of course the biggest consideration for the Fed is the rate of inflation. The next CPI report is not scheduled to be released until the morning of September 13, 2022, but we can use chart analysis to, with a high degree of certainty, predict the rate of inflation. The above chart is a chart of the price of gold (GOLD) multiplied by the Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC). This chart allows us to extrapolate both the supply and demand side of inflation to a high degree of certainty. It is a statistically valid leading indicator for the inflation rate. You can see how drastically it has fallen recently. You can also see how closely it matches the chart of the inflation rate on a lagging basis. For those interested in the statistics GOLD*DBC correlates to USIRYY as follows: r = 0.904, r-squared = 0.8844, p = 0 In the chart above I provide an even better correlation to the rate of inflation. In this chart I provide the total securities sold by the Federal Reserve as part of their overnight reverse repurchase facility, I then attempted to improve the correlation values by adjusting the value by using the price of gold as a multiplier. Although this may sound complex to those who are not familiar with the repo facility, in short it just represents the amount of dollars that the Fed is pulling out of the banking system. To diminish the effect of any non-inflationary factors that would cause the Fed to do this, I adjusted the value using the price of gold. Recently, the Fed has been pulling less dollars out of the system and on some days it has actually been putting more dollars back into the system. The Fed would not be putting more dollars into the system if inflation were still spiraling out of control. While anything can happen in the future, and additional inflationary shocks can occur, this equation gives us a tool to predict the rate of inflation before the CPI report is published. For those interested in the statistics, GOLD*RRPONTTLD correlates to USIRYY as follows: r = 0.954, r-squared = 0.94, p = 0 In the chart above, I've adjusted the values to match the inflation numbers as best as I could (I simply used a divisor that equates the peak values in both charts). It is far from perfect and it is definitely not something that you should use to trade on. The number that is actually reported by the government could be way different. The best that we, as traders, can ever do is use charts to try to predict what may happen, which is what I've done here. More information about Eurodollar Futures: www.investopedia.com More information about Quad Witching: www.investopedia.com
FRED:M2SL
by SpyMasterTrades
108
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/7/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2023 - PR High: 12537.25 - PR Low: 12510.00 - NZ Spread: 60.75 Evening Stats (As of 1:15 AM) - Weekend Gap: -0.35 (open > 12616) - 8/19 Session Gap: -0.04% (open > 13237) - Session Open ATR: 276.69 - Volume: 20K - Open Int: 273K - Trend Grade: Bear - From ATH: -25.3% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 12959 - Mid: 12392 - Short: 11820 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQH2023Long
by mv3trader5
Specialized education that secures jobs equals +100% from lowsAdtalem Global Education is a leading healthcare educator that partners with organizations to address workforce needs and empower career development across the medical and healthcare industries. I've been watching this stock for a while and finally is signaling an actionable pivot buy. Price is close to its 50-day MA which can act as a good support level. I'd place mi stop just below it. Yesterday's volume was above average so I'll wait until near the close to assess today's volume. This stock is up +100% from its February low, that's right it bottomed in February. If this is not leadership, don't know what it is.
NYSE:ATGELong
by dpuleo19
Can $DLTR push higher from here?Notes: * Very strong up trend on all time frames * Great earnings in the recent quarters and in general * Creating a base on base pattern for the past ~8 months * Price is mostly keeping above its 50 day line since mid April with a few dips below * Volatility is contracting with signs of accumulation Technicals: Sector: Consumer Defensive - Discount Stores Relative Strength vs. Sector: 2.58 Relative Strength vs. SP500: 3.05 U/D Ratio: 1.24 Base Depth: 36.34% Distance from breakout buy point: -3.83% Volume 17.45% above its 15 day avg. Trade Idea: * You can enter now as the price is just above its 50 day line with increasing volume * If you want a better entry you can look for one around the $163.7 - $162.1 area as that should hold as support * This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 15.72% above its 50 EMA * Consider selling into strength if the price closes 15.52% to 15.92% (or higher) above its 50 EMA * The last closing price is 2.4% away from its 50 EMA Caution: * Earnings are coming up and the stock could move either way. If you want to play it safe, wait till after earnings to jump in.
NASDAQ:DLTRLong
by HaseebKhan_90
S&P500 Short, The rise of globalizationWith the US. Economy showing signs of a decline in growth be it through the freezing of hiring of new employees, personal savings decline even worse than before the pandemic, sky-high interest rates, etc. and with conflicts arising in Eastern Europe and the South China Sea putting a strain on resources, it brings to question whether or not everything should be globalized to efficiently manage resources like a bee hive, as a means to prevent global conflicts and give everyone a decent standard of living. SP500 bottom is a long way to go. 5th Generational warfare will likely play out as foreign currencies cash in on this opportunity to establish global dominance IF world leaders decide not to participate/continue plans for a technocracy. Blockchain technology can be the vessel to help govern us w/o bias from tradeoff, taking into account/analyzing the metadata we (individuals and corporations/stakeholders) provide through our thoughts and transactions. People may hate or dislike the WEF or the Bilderberg Group. Still, I believe they are Earth’s best hope for the continuation of government and civilization even if it means at the temporary cost of human life and individual quality of life via sustainability. A correction is coming either by force from mother nature or by choice from world leaders. I say this given the scarcity of resources and lack of continuous innovation to efficiently use the available pool of resources to sustain the infrastructure of society as it stands. Trade E: 412 SL:450 TP:273 Key dates to take note of: Sept. 26th Oct. 28th Resistance in from 440 to 410 given: -PA near VWAP sourced from Point of Deflection -PA near 0.5-0.618 fibs of wave A -PoC of wave A being defined as the upper limit at 440 Confirmation of signal will happen once we close under 410 on a daily candle. Dates noted earlier are like when volatility ends or begins. HV indi on the daily gives warning of vol expansion soon, but the weekly vol contraction is at play meaning we may distribute/consolidate around 400-430 for the next 3 months under the dates noted earlier to trigger the final nail in the coffin to ~$200 . BTC will likely consolidate as well during this time staying at a neutral bias until 21k is broken to the downside or it continues to coor. with SP500.
AMEX:SPYShort
by linebands
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 7/15/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2022 - PR High: 11843.75 - PR Low: 11808.00 - NZ Spread: 79.75 Evening Stats (As of 1:00 AM) - Weekend Gap: = -0.09% (not filled) - Session Open ATR: 346.81 - Volume: 31k - Open Int: 254k - Trend Grade: Bear - From ATH: -29.5% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 12390 - Mid: 11820 - Short: 10680 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQU2022
by mv3trader5