EURUSD | Market outlook EUR shows mixed trading dynamics against USD during the Asian session, consolidating after a strong decline last Friday, which was due to the publication of a strong report on the US labor market for July. EUR continues to trade near the local lows since April 5, waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. However, today there will be few interesting macroeconomic statistics from the US and Europe, and therefore the "bearish" trend can be further developed. Anyway, the data released in the United States reflected an increase in Nonfarm Payrolls in July by 943K after an increase of 938K in June. Analysts predicted a decrease to 870K. The Unemployment Rate in July fell sharply from 5.9% to 5.4%, while investors had expected a decline to only 5.7%.
Wyckoffmethod
XAUUSD STILL BEARISH ON HTFThe HTF is very Bearsih while the LTF is Bullish and on its Range is at Discount Level of which the next logical target is above 1840 as they are relative equal highs and an imbalance that was never filled an also posssible mitigation of the OB that sponsored the big move around 1870 zone......
BTC Update - It was An Accumulation all along, SOSMy mistake was not noticing the glitches in the futures,
I’ll be honest, it’s not the strongst Accumulation I’ve ever seen, and also it was a tricky range, I thought it was a distribution until the very end, but noticing the strong bull movement in the end made me to check again the chart and see the change of character in the end.
Gold prices under pressure | Market outlookGold prices show a rather active decline during the Asian session, developing a "bearish" signal formed the day before, when the instrument was pressured by the growth of US Treasury bond yields and expectations of a tougher position of the US Federal Reserve on the reduction of existing stimuli. At the same time, gold ignored the fact of the decline in USD, which is awaiting the publication of Friday's labor market report for July. Among other things, analysts expect an increase in new jobs in the non-agricultural sector by 870K after an increase of 850K in June. The unemployment rate in the country may fall from 5.9% to 5.7%, which may be a signal for the regulator to start reducing the existing incentives.
BTCUSD Downside Correction Under development? | Market outlookThe positive momentum was fueled by reports that Internet giant Amazon.com Inc. by the end of the year, may start accepting several cryptocurrency tokens (BTC, ETH, ADA, and BCH) to pay for goods. This information led to the liquidation of $111M short positions, which occurred within just 10 minutes. Later, employees of Amazon.com Inc. stated that the company does not have specific plans for cryptocurrencies, but they could no longer influence the growth of the digital asset market.
The instrument met the current week with a pullback. Some investors are fixing profits after a seven-day growth, also, the price is negatively affected by reports of the US Department of Justice's inspection of Tether's activities for possible banking fraud. According to the results of the audit, the organization may be subject to legal action, which will negatively affect the entire cryptocurrency sector since USD 62B worth of USDT tokens are in circulation.
Bitcoin - Wyckoff Chart UpdateAfter 9 straight days* of positive price action, the longest continuous stretch of green days since the low of $3,195 in December 2018!, one can conclude that the Composite Man is in a hurry, so we need to re-calibrate the Wyckoff Chart to the new conditions.
Looking at the current position, BTC has rallied strongly to the critical level of $40.8k level, with just two brief corrections along the way. It is now pulling back toward the Last Point of Supply (LPS) before launching itself “across the creek” towards $46k in a Sign of Strength (SOS) and a period of consolidation to confirm $44k as a strong level of support.
At least that is the theory according to the Wyckoff Method. As such, I feel we have now transitioned from Phase C of the Accumulation to Phase D. As you can see, Phase B was extended with a period of redistribution, but volume has increased significantly since re-testing the $29k level underlining strong buying all through what has been the trading range since May 19.
This confirms that bags are now packed for the journey to the next Distribution phase, with a last stop for all the laggards to re-pack at the LPS.
* I note that the day is 15 minutes to closing and there is potential for the bar to close red, which would make it 8 straight days of green, and the longest run of green since June 26, 2019. Either way it looks like a doji inside bar and suggests a correction.
Possible Wyckoff Accumulation on $ARCTI have been trying to identify and study the Wyckoff patterns ever since the pattern became recognized in the recent bitcoin distribution and accumulation phases. i believe i see accumulation in $ARCT, which is a biotech with mRNA vaccines and treatments. The stock is lower float, heavily shorted, and with current issues surrounding Covid-19, a potential runner. There are several gaps to fill above as well and earnings coming up shortly, with a potential to surprise to the upside.
NZDUSD Upside Correction | Market outlookThe NZD/USD pair corrects upwards after the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision.
USD falls after yesterday's meeting of the regulator and the subsequent comments of its head, Jerome Powell. In general, all parameters of monetary policy remained unchanged, and the quantitative easing program remained in the total volume of $120B. The official named stable inflation around 2% and unemployment of 4– 5% as a key goal. He noted that discussions on changes in the bond repurchase program continued, and members of the department devoted more time to this than before.
New Zealand authorities have decided to restrict the free movement of tourists from Australia. According to reports from the National Ministry of Health, the number of new cases of COVID-19 is on the rise again, and most of those infected are tourists from Australia. Thus, for at least eight weeks, all visitors from Australia will again undergo mandatory quarantine.
The country's macroeconomic statistics are relatively stable. The index of confidence in business circles in July slightly decreased and amounted to –3.8 points, while the index of business activity from the National Bank increased by 26.3%, which is inferior to the growth of June by 31.6%.
AUDUSD Uptrend Development? | Market outlookThe development of the uptrend in AUD/USD is due to yesterday's comments from the US Federal Reserve, which negatively affected the quotes of USD.
Yesterday, the American regulator kept the interest rate at 0.25% and, although representatives of the department admitted that inflation is outside the norm, they said that no serious decisions on monetary policy should be expected in the near future. Investors reacted negatively to the statements of the US Fed, and by the close of trading the USD Index dropped to 92.28.
Meanwhile, AUD/USD still maintains a long-term downtrend, towards which an upward correction is now developing.
OIL EDGES UP | Market outlook
Oil prices edged higher on Friday and for the week after a strong recovery from Mondays steep slide, underpinned by expectations that supply will remain tight through the year.
Currently, the market is under the influence of opposite factors. Investors are alarmed by the growing incidence of the delta coronavirus, which could lead to new blockages and put pressure on global energy demand.
On the other hand, several experts believe that oil consumption will continue to grow soon, despite the increase in production by the OPEC+ countries, which is illustrated by the gradual reduction of oil reserves in the United States.
Technical Analysis
We will likely see one final drop before upside continuation. And it's recommended to buy the dips around 62 area and Sell around the rally around 73 zone. Above 76 we will likely see market make new highs.
BTCUSDIF breaks 41451. THEN buy @ 30933. IF not we wait for a lower entry that fill order imbalance
#wyckoff
BTC big move confirmed. SOS pending? As mentioned in my previous post, I knew a big move was coming.
This move was big. It is as strong as when the price moved to £64,000 the current BTC All time high.
It is too soon to start talking about a long term reversal but this defintiely was a short term reversal.
I have attached a Wyckoff setup and from my intuition a SOS could be the next thing on the cards depending how the price holds at these key resistance lines.
Crypto Markets In Trouble : Potential Wyckoff Warning SignWhat is TOTAL2?
The TOTAL2 Shows us the Total Market Capitilisation of Cryptocurrencies (TOTAL MARKET VALUE) the amount of money in crypto excluding Bitcoin basically.
Investing and trading based on price alone is like seeing the tip of an iceberg in the vast ocean, analyzing the Market Cap of cryptocurrencies is a great way to gauge the strength of Altcoins and the Market in general.
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Potential Wyckoff Distribution:
Trading ranges ( TRs ) are places where the previous trend (up or down) has been halted and there is relative equilibrium between supply and demand . Institutions and other large professional interests prepare for their next bull (or bear) campaign as they accumulate (or distribute) shares within the TR .
In both accumulation and distribution TRs , the Composite Man is actively buying and selling - the difference being that, in accumulation, the shares purchased outnumber those sold while, in distribution, the opposite is true. The extent of accumulation or distribution determines the cause that unfolds in the subsequent move out of the TR ."
See the Wyckoff Distribution Schematic here for comparison:
www.wyckoffanalytics.com
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Thoughts:
In this particular trading range we can see that the SUPPLY clearly outweighs the demand, with the equilibrium now falling below the initial formation of the trading range you can see on the left.
Unless this gets back above 850 billion or so with the creation of a Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern (marked with yellow trendline) we are entering another potential mark down phase for Cryptocurrencies.
Click this image to learn about Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern:
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See my Bitcoin Distribution idea here for comparison:
(Click and hit PRESS PLAY)
Note the clear LPSY Last Point of Supply where BTC rallied with low volume and failed to get back inside the Trading Range. It is one of the key characteristics of DISTRIBUTION patterns.