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US 10Y TREASURY: tariff tensions rattle bonds During the previous week there has not been important US macro data scheduled for a release, however, news regarding tariffs has been the ones which shaped investors sentiment and also, US bond yields. It was indeed a no-clear-direction trading week when it comes to 10Y Treasury benchmark yields. The week started with a strong move to the upside, from 4,32% up to 4,39, then there was a push back, while yields ended the week at 4,41%. News regarding tariffs were the ones that shaped Friday's sentiment on the market. Saturday brought news that the US Administration is implementing tariffs of 30% on goods imports from Europe and Mexico. This information is still not reflected in market yields, but will certainly be with the start of the trading week on Monday. Aside from tariffs news, the week ahead brings some important US macro data, like June inflation, PPI and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday, implying that another volatile week is ahead.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook July 14-18 (updated daily)US Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook for the week July 14-18 (updated daily) Overnight On Friday, the US 10-year Treasury note yield increased by nearly 4 basis points to approximately 4.39%, driven by market concerns over new tariff threats from President Trump. These include a proposed 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1, 2025, and planned 15-20% tariffs on most other trading partners, up from the current 10%. Additional tariffs include 50% duties on Brazilian imports and copper, alongside formal notices to other key trading partners, intensifying trade tensions. Despite these developments, the US Treasury reported strong demand for its recent auctions, with $22 billion in 30-year bonds and $39 billion in 10-year notes. On monetary policy, markets anticipate the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates at its next meeting, with expectations of two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of 2025. Source: TradingView News (Trading Economics) Economic News for the week www.myfxbook.com Daily Technical Outlook With the strong bearish (in price) close on Friday and the week, there’s a chance market will target 4.435% and for the week 4.462%. With the strong influence by fundamental please continue to watch the tariff updates and policy adjustments as this are the strong drivers of market moves the past week. This week will be inflation rate week due on Tuesday. **Disclaimer:** The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
TVC:US10Y
by Junmadayag
GB10Y UK GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD The current Governor of the Bank of England is Andrew Bailey. Appointment: Andrew Bailey has served as Governor since March 16, 2020, and his term runs until March 15, 2028. Role: As Governor, he chairs the Monetary Policy Committee, Financial Policy Committee, and Prudential Regulation Committee. Background: Prior to his appointment as Governor, Bailey was Chief Executive Officer of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and has held several senior roles within the Bank of England, including Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation. Recent Activity: He remains active in shaping UK monetary policy and financial stability, and was recently nominated as the next Chair of the Financial Stability Board, beginning July 2025. Andrew Bailey continues to lead the Bank of England through significant economic and financial developments. Upcoming UK Economic Reports (July 13–17, 2025) Below is a schedule of major UK economic releases and events for the coming week, with local times (BST): Date Time (BST) Event July 13, Sun 06:00 AM Core Inflation Rate MoM July 13, Sun 06:00 AM Retail Price Index MoM July 13, Sun 06:00 AM Retail Price Index YoY July 14, Mon 12:00 PM NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker July 14, Mon 11:01 PM BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY July 15, Tue 09:00 AM Treasury Stock 2032 Auction July 15, Tue 08:00 PM BoE Governor Andrew Bailey Speech July 16, Wed 06:00 AM Inflation Rate YoY July 16, Wed 06:00 AM Core Inflation Rate YoY July 16, Wed 06:00 AM Inflation Rate MoM July 16, Wed 06:00 AM Core Inflation Rate MoM July 16, Wed 06:00 AM Retail Price Index MoM July 16, Wed 06:00 AM Retail Price Index YoY July 16, Wed 09:00 AM Treasury Gilt 2034 Auction July 17, Thu 06:00 AM Unemployment Rate July 17, Thu 06:00 AM Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) July 17, Thu 06:00 AM Employment Change July 17, Thu 06:00 AM Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) July 17, Thu 06:00 AM HMRC Payrolls Change July 17, Thu 06:00 AM Claimant Count Change July 17, Thu 09:00 AM Treasury Gilt 2030 Auction Note: All times are in British Summer Time (BST). These events are subject to change based on official updates. Key releases include inflation data, labor market statistics, retail sales, and several government bond auctions. The Bank of England Governor's speech is also a major event for markets with price volatility . the UK 10-year gilt yield (UK10Y) is approximately 4.63%, having edged up 0.03 percentage points from the previous session. Over the past month, it has risen about 0.15 points and is 0.52 points higher than a year ago, reflecting persistent inflation concerns and expectations about Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy. Correlation Between UK10Y, UK10, and GBP Strength UK10Y Yield and GBP: The 10-year gilt yield is a key indicator of UK long-term borrowing costs and investor sentiment. Higher yields typically attract foreign capital seeking better returns, which tends to strengthen the British pound (GBP). Conversely, expectations of BoE rate cuts or economic weakness can pressure yields lower and weaken GBP. Recent Dynamics: Despite inflation remaining above 3%, the UK economy has shown signs of contraction (GDP shrinking 0.1% in May), prompting markets to price in an 80% chance of a BoE rate cut in August. This has led to some volatility in yields and GBP strength. The BoE’s policy rate has already been reduced from 5.25% to 4.25% over the past year, and further easing is anticipated, which can weigh on the GBP. UK10 (Shorter-Term Yields) vs. UK10Y: Shorter-term gilt yields (e.g., 2-year or 5-year) tend to be more sensitive to immediate BoE policy moves, while the 10-year yield reflects longer-term inflation and growth expectations. A steepening yield curve (rising long-term yields relative to short-term) can indicate confidence in economic recovery and support GBP. A flattening or inverted curve may signal caution and pressure GBP. GBP Strength Mixed; supported by higher yields but pressured by economic slowdown and easing expectations Yield Curve Moderately steep, reflecting growth/inflation expectations In essence: The UK 10-year gilt yield at 4.63% supports GBP strength by attracting yield-seeking capital, but the expected BoE rate cut and economic weakness introduce downside risks. The interplay between short- and long-term yields and BoE policy guidance will continue to influence GBP’s trade directional bias .
TVC:GB10YLong
by Shavyfxhub
UK GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND PRICE GB10Relationship Between GB10 Price and GBP Strength Inverse Relationship: Bond prices and yields move inversely. When gilt yields rise (due to inflation concerns or expectations of tighter monetary policy), gilt prices fall. Conversely, if yields fall, prices rise. Impact on GBP: Higher UK gilt yields, reflecting higher interest rates or inflation expectations, tend to attract foreign capital seeking better returns. This supports demand for the British pound (GBP), strengthening the currency. However, if yields rise due to inflation fears without confidence in economic growth, or if rate cuts are expected, GBP strength may be limited. Current Market Context: The UK economy has shown signs of contraction, and markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a Bank of England rate cut in August 2025. This dynamic creates some volatility: Yields remain elevated (4.63%), supporting GBP. Expectations of easing may cap GBP gains and pressure gilt prices higher (yields lower). GBP Strength Supported by higher yields but tempered by expected BoE easing Market Drivers Inflation, economic contraction, BoE rate expectations Conclusion The current UK 10-year gilt price near 99.0 and yield around 4.63% reflect a market balancing inflation risks and economic slowdown. Elevated yields help support GBP strength by attracting yield-seeking investors, but the prospect of Bank of England rate cuts and economic weakness limit upside for the pound. #GBP #GB10 #GB10Y
TVC:GB10
by Shavyfxhub
UNITED STATE GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD US10Y1. US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) The 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.39%, up about 0.04 percentage points from the previous session (July 10, 2025). Over the past month, the yield has edged up slightly by around 0.02 points and is about 0.20 points higher than a year ago. Market expectations project the 10-year yield to average around 4.28% by the end of Q3 2025, with a gradual decline to about 4.06% in 12 months. The yield increase reflects ongoing market pricing of Fed rate policy, inflation expectations, and economic growth prospects. 2. US Dollar Index (DXY) The DXY is trading near 97.758, reflecting a modest decline over the year. The index is influenced by Fed policy expectations, global risk sentiment, and interest rate differentials. A stronger 10-year yield tends to support the dollar, but recent tariff uncertainties and geopolitical risks have contributed to some volatility. 3. Bond Prices and PIMCO Active Bond ETF (BOND) Bond prices move inversely to yields; with yields rising slightly, bond prices have shown minor declines. The PIMCO Active Bond Exchange-Traded Fund (BOND) is trading around $91.50, essentially flat on the day, reflecting a diversified portfolio of fixed income instruments. This ETF invests mainly in investment-grade debt but can hold up to 30% in high-yield securities, providing exposure to a broad range of bonds. 4. Federal Reserve Chairman The current Chairman of the Federal Reserve is Jerome H. Powell, serving since February 2018 and reappointed in 2022 for a term through 2026. Powell’s leadership continues to focus on balancing inflation control with economic growth, navigating trade uncertainties, and signaling a cautious but data-driven approach to future rate changes. Summary Table Metric Latest Data (July 2025) Notes US 10-Year Treasury Yield 4.39% Slight increase; reflects Fed policy pricing US Dollar Index (DXY) 97.75 Modest decline YTD; sensitive to yields and tariffs PIMCO Active Bond ETF (BOND) $91.50 Stable; diversified fixed income exposure Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell Leading Fed policy since 2018, reappointed 2022 Market Context The modest rise in the 10-year Treasury yield signals market confidence in the US economy but also reflects inflation concerns and Fed policy expectations. The DXY’s relative stability amid tariff uncertainty suggests balanced market sentiment toward the dollar. Bond investors remain cautious, with diversified funds like PIMCO’s BOND ETF offering a buffer against volatility. Fed Chair Powell’s guidance continues to emphasize data dependency, with markets watching closely for signals on rate adjustments. #FEDS #DOLLAR
TVC:US10YLong
by Shavyfxhub
CANADIAN GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD CA10YCanada 10-Year Bond Yield CA10Y The Canadian 10-year government bond yield is 3.43-3.419%% as of July 10, 2025, slightly up from the previous session and close to its level a year ago. Trend: The yield has edged up by about 0.06 percentage points over the past month, but remains below its long-term average of 4.25%. Economic Outlook Growth Forecast: GDP growth for 2025 is now expected at 1.0%–1.25%, revised down from earlier forecasts due to trade tensions and a cooling labor market. Risks: The outlook is tilted to the downside, with rising unemployment (7% in May, projected to reach 7.5% by year-end) and weakened consumer/business sentiment. Monetary Policy: The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.75%, with expectations of a rate cut to 2.25% by year-end as growth headwinds persist. Regional Performance: Some provinces, like Newfoundland and Labrador, are seeing upgrades due to resource production, but overall national performance is subdued. Upcoming Economic News July 15: New Motor Vehicle Sales (May data) and Monthly Survey of Manufacturing. July 16: 30-Year Bond Auction. July 17: CFIB Business Barometer, Foreign Securities Purchases. July 21: Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM release. Ongoing: Industrial production and retail sales data will provide further insight into growth trends. US Tariff Effect New Tariffs: The US announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports effective August 1, 2025, escalating trade tensions. Economic Impact: These tariffs are expected to weigh heavily on Canadian exports, business investment, and employment, given Canada’s high trade exposure to the US. The Canadian dollar fell in response to the tariff announcement, reflecting market concern over the impact on Canada’s export-dependent economy. Sectoral Risks: Manufacturing and auto sectors are particularly vulnerable, with job losses already concentrated in trade-exposed regions. Policy Response: The Bank of Canada has cited trade uncertainty as a key reason for maintaining a cautious monetary stance, with further easing likely if conditions deteriorate. Summary Table Indicator Latest Value / Outlook Notes 10-Year Bond Yield 3.43% Slightly up, below long-term average GDP Growth (2025) 1.0%–1.25% Downgraded due to trade/labor headwinds Unemployment Rate 7% (May), 7.5% (year-end est.) Rising, especially in trade-exposed sectors BoC Policy Rate 2.75% (cut to 2.25% expected) Cautious, possible further easing US Tariffs 35% from Aug 1, 2025 Significant downside risk Key Economic News July 15–21: Sales, PPI, auctions Manufacturing, trade, and price data In summary: Canada’s 10-year bond yield remains stable but below historical averages. The economic outlook is subdued, with downside risks from rising US tariffs, a softening labor market, and weak business sentiment. Upcoming economic releases will be closely watched for further signs of stress, especially as new US tariffs threaten to further dampen growth and confidence. #CA10Y #BOND #BONDYIELD
TVC:CA10YLong
by Shavyfxhub
US10Y: New Multi Decade Highs are coming for Treasury Yields!📈 US10Y: Treasury Yields Are About to Explode Higher Longing bonds was the consensus trade heading into 2025. Everyone expected a “flight to safety” as equities tanked, but guess what? Bonds have been a massive disappointment. Instead, Bitcoin and Gold have stolen that narrative—who saw that coming? But here’s the real kicker… The 10-Year Treasury Yield is now forming a textbook Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #2, and we’re entering Phase B with a potential Upthrust (UT) forming. That means yields could be gearing up for a massive breakout, putting serious pressure on leveraged bond bulls. My projection? We’re heading to the 2.272–2.414 Trend-Based Fib Extension, targeting 5.53% to 6.42%. That’s a multi-decade high in yields. If you’re holding bonds with leverage... 🔥 You might want to sleep with one eye open. And no—this isn’t about the Fed, or politics, or CPI print tea leaves. Fundamentals don’t lead—technicals do.
TVC:US10YLong
by StockScaper
UNITED STATES 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD US10YMarket Context The yield reflects investor expectations for Federal Reserve policy, inflation trends, and US fiscal conditions. Markets are pricing in potential Fed rate cuts later in 2025, but persistent inflation and fiscal concerns are keeping yields and pending a clear directional bias . The US 10-year yield is a key benchmark for borrowing costs and is closely watched as a “risk-free” rate for global financial markets. Summary US10Y is currently at 4.35%-4.332%, The yield awaiting further economic data and central bank signals.
TVC:US10YLong
by Shavyfxhub
US 10Y TREASURY: September rate cut?Jobs data posted during the previous week shaped investors sentiment. The JOLTs job openings in May reached the level of 7.769M, higher from market forecast of 7,3M. The main impact on the market came from the NFP data for June, with 147K new jobs, above market expectations of 110K. At the same time, unemployment fell to 4,1% in June. Strong jobs data significantly decreased market expectations that the Fed might potentially cut interest rates at July's FOMC meeting. Current odds still hold for September's cut. A “higher for longer” is again wording used by market participants. The 10Y Treasury yields adjusted to that expectation by increasing yields from 4,2% toward 4,33% as of the end of the week. In a week ahead, there are no currently significant US macro data scheduled for a release. In this sense, it could be expected a short relaxation of the 10Y yields, where levels between 4,3% and 4,8% could be shortly tested.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
UST 10Y Technical Outlook for the week July 7-11 (UPDATED DAILY)US Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook for the week July 7-July 11 (updated daily) Overnight The US 10-year Treasury yield increased by 6 basis points to 4.34%. A stronger-than-expected jobs report triggered the rise. Nonfarm payrolls reached 147,000 in June. April and May payroll figures were revised higher. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Wage growth slowed to 0.2%. Investors eliminated expectations for a July Federal Reserve rate cut. The probability of a September rate cut fell to approximately 80%. Fed Chair Powell advocated a cautious approach. A significant bill advanced through Congress. Source: TradingView News (Trading Economics) Economic Release week July 7-11 www.myfxbook.com Technical Outlook Monthly Chart, I am expecting a support (in px) at 4.37%, the 50% fib level of previous month. If it continuous to punch through then I would expect a target of previous month high of 4.518% is in play. Weekly Chart, following a sweep of previous week low with strong rejection, I am expecting market to target previous week high (PWH) of 4.407%. It is also worth to note that the week is closing above 50% range of last week with no signs of rejection. Daily chart, , yesterday I mentioned “ wich leads me to expect a continuation to target yesterday’s high of 4.308%” the lvl was reached and market closed through the previous day’s high which leads me to expect the next daily target will be **Disclaimer:** The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
TVC:US10Y
by Junmadayag
US30Y Bullish ideaThis is a potential idea of the 30 year bond yield potentially having movement to the upside. We have already reached into a daily volume imbalance and weekly volume imbalance. We also have a monthly order block that is acting as support combined with our volume imbalance levels. We also have relative strength with the US30Y against the US10Y and US5Y. Could be a potential idea to look for bullish ideas with the the fact that we are in a potential point were we could have a Quarterly shift. *Targeting A move to the upside were we have buyside liquidity and the 4H fair value gap.
TVC:US30YLong
by That_Guy_Trades
9
US 10Y TREASURY: jobs data aheadThe Fed's favorite inflation gauge was posted during the previous week, which impacted some higher volatility in the U.S. Treasury yields. The Personal Consumption Expenditure index ended May by 0,1% higher from the previous month, bringing the index to the level of 2,3% on a yearly basis. The core PCE remained a bit elevated with 0,2% in May and 2,7% for the year. Still, both figures were in line with market expectations, which was the main reason for 10Y U.S. Treasury benchmark yields drop to the level of 4,25% at the end of the week, from 4,40% where the week started. A drop in inflation figures are increasing market expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates in September. However, a week ahead might bring again some higher volatility in the U.S. Treasury yields as the major jobs data will be posted. For the week ahead the JOLTs Job Openings, the Non-farm Payrolls and the June unemployment will be posted. Considering Fed's dual mandate, bonds market participants will be closely watching these data.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook June 30-July 4 (Updated Daily)US Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook June 30-July 4 Overnight On June 27, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.26% after five sessions of decline, as markets anticipate earlier Fed rate cuts. Recent data, including subdued PCE inflation, a sharp drop in May consumer spending, a 0.5% Q1 GDP contraction, and rising jobless claims since 2021, support these expectations. Fed Chair Powell’s dovish congressional remarks and potential new Fed leadership by September or October further bolster a dovish policy outlook. Economic Release for the Week www.myfxbook.com Technical Outlook On the monthly chart, , we can see that price is trading below the 50% level of the previous month’s, May, range showing bullishness in price. Weekly chart, , we can see the previous week low (PWL) has been broken and closed through suggesting the yield could continue to fall and im looking at 4.24% as a target for the week. Daily Chart, we can see that it did not break Thursday’s low instead priced bounced and gave a green candle. This tells e that there’s a possibility of a technical correction. Im looking at the daily supply area (D -OB 4.332%) for a possible target. **Disclaimer:** The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
TVC:US10Y
by Junmadayag
US10Y & ZB1! (Bonds) Weekly AnalysisUS 10‑Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) The 10‑year yield ended last Friday (June 27, 2025) at 4.27% After peaking above 4.46% mid‑week, yields eased late‑week as markets increasingly priced in potential Fed rate cuts—a 25 bp move in July was seen at 22.7% probability, up from ~14% This dovish shift, alongside a softer May PCE print, supported a lull in yield increases Still, Inflation concerns and record debt issuance continue to underpin a term premium on long-duration debt ZB1 – 30‑Year Treasury Bond Futures The September‑expiry T‑Bond futures (ZB1) which trade inversely to yield, saw modest price appreciation, reflecting falling yields. Futures prices responded to the dovish Fed tone and easing global tensions, aligning with stock market gains. The spread between 10‑ and 30‑year yields widened to ~56 bp—the largest since late 2021—illustrating increased yield curve steepening, mirrored in futures. ------------------------------------ I will be approaching the markets differently from now on. Based on the feedback from past analysis, I will be compiling all related pairs into one video, giving you guys the ability to see how one asset affects the other. This is called inter-market relationship and it's something i've been doing for years. It gives you confidence on what pairs are 'Hot Picks' and the ones that have a high chance of not delivering the way you want.
TVC:US10YShort
by LegendSince
Price of fiscal profligacy: US10Y vs DE10Y vs CH10Y Today I will go unconventional in my analysis and look at the yields of 3 major economies with 3 different fiscal trajectories. Today we look at the 10Y Yield of US, Germany and Switzerland. 3 different countries with different Fiscal and Monetary policies off late. The TVC:US10Y after touching the highs of 5% in Oct 2023 has been in a downward trend making new lower highs and lower lows but within the downward slopping channel sweeping the upper bound and the lower bound. Recently, touching the higher bound of the channel at 4.5%, since then it has reversed its course and gone down. On 26th May my article on TVC:US10Y and TVC:DXY forecasted 4.6% as the upper bound for the $US10Y. TVC:US10Y and TVC:DXY Divergence and correlation breakdown for TVC:US10Y by RabishankarBiswal — TradingView . We recently got rejected at 4.51%. So, the obvious direction for TVC:US10Y is lower with 3.5% as the lowest target. Now switching gear to $DE10Y. The German Bunds are doing the reverse. They are making a series of new higher highs and higher lows. With increasing yields on the TVC:DE10Y and fiscal indiscipline on the part of German govt this is going to rise in the medium to long term. Then we finally look at the Swiss 10Y which might touch ‘Negative’ in the near term. The Swiss central bank is on the path to reduce the rates to negative in Sept 25 meeting. The TVC:CH10Y at 0.45% brings back the memory of negative rates. But with global flight to safety and a fiscally conservative government the TVC:CH10Y is in huge demand hence pushing down the yields. Verdict : TVC:US10Y ↘ between 4.3% - 3.5%, TVC:DE10Y ↗ between 2% - 3%, TVC:CH10Y TVC:US10Y ↘ between 0.5% - (- 0.25%)
TVC:US10Y
by RabishankarBiswal
US10Y: Signals Deeper Drop as Rate Cut Hopes BuildUS10Y: Signals Deeper Drop as Rate Cut Hopes Build The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) has broken decisively below a key daily structure zone near 4.32%, marking a significant technical breakdown. If price action holds beneath this level, it increases the probability of a further slide toward 4.14% and potentially 3.09%—levels last seen in early April 2025. From a broader perspective, the yield could eventually decline toward 3.64%, dating back to early September 2024. This bearish momentum may begin unfolding today, especially if the PCE data hints at a potential Fed rate cut. During recent testimonies, Chair Powell emphasized a data-dependent approach, yet didn’t dismiss the possibility of a rate cut in the July meeting. Interestingly, despite US10Y's decline, it may still provide temporary support for the U.S. dollar (USD) in these volatile conditions. The correlation between US10Y and the USD has weakened in recent months. Let's see what happens. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day
TVC:US10YShort
by KlejdiCuni
4
US GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD.The correlation between the US 10-Year Treasury yield (US10Y) and gold prices is historically inverse but has shown periods of divergence due to shifting market dynamics 1. Typical Inverse Relationship Gold and US10Y yields traditionally move in opposite directions due to: Opportunity Cost: Higher yields increase the cost of holding non-yielding gold, pressuring prices. Real Interest Rates: Gold tends to fall when real yields (nominal yield minus inflation) rise, as seen in pre-2024 data. 2. Recent Deviations and Drivers Since 2024, this correlation has weakened or reversed under specific conditions: Geopolitical Turmoil makes Positive correlation (both rise)us10y and gold ,eg Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East tensions, and U.S.-EU tariffs drove simultaneous surges in yields and gold as dual safe havens. De-Dollarization,Gold decouples from yields as mejor Central banks (e.g., China, Russia) bought gold aggressively, offsetting yield-driven pressure. 3. Yield Level: US10Y at 4.26%, Correlation Status: Weakly inverse, but fiscal risks (e.g., U.S. deficit, trade policies) could reignite positive links. Key Influencers Moving Forward Fed Policy: Expected rate cuts (2×25 bps in 2025) may weaken yields, boosting gold. Inflation Expectations: Sticky inflation could sustain gold’s appeal despite yield fluctuations. Geopolitics: Escalations in trade wars or conflicts may re-tighten the positive correlation. Summary While the US10Y-gold correlation remains fundamentally inverse, recent structural shifts—geopolitical stress, fiscal uncertainty, and de-dollarization—have driven periods of alignment. #dollar #gold
TVC:US10Y
by Shavyfxhub