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US 10Y TREASURY: the FOMCDuring the previous week markets full attention was on PCE data which were published on Friday. The PCE index rose 0.1% for the month, and 2.5% on a yearly basis, which was fully in line with market estimates. The evident slowdown in inflation in the US increased the probability that the Fed might make the first cut in September this year. The 10Y US benchmark yields were reflecting the investors sentiment during the week, moving from 4.3% at the start of the week, and ending it at 4.19%. As the FOMC meeting is scheduled for the week ahead, some increased market volatility is quite expected. Market is not expecting that the Fed will cut rates during this meeting, however, any change in rhetoric of the Fed Chair Powell might trigger higher market volatility. At this moment, there is a high probability that the market will test 10Y yields for a potential for lower grounds from the level of 4.20%. Some short move to the levels above 4.20% is also possible, but these levels are not expected to hold for a longer period of time.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
A Recession Is Coming - Brace for Impact First things first What is a Recession? A recession is a period when the economy isn't doing well. It means businesses are selling less, people are losing jobs or not getting raises, and overall, there's less money being spent. It's like a slowdown in the economy where things are not growing, and sometimes they shrink. This period of economic decline usually lasts for a few months or longer. Usually, when we have two consecutive quarters of negative Gross Domestic Product (GDP) we say that we are in a recession. Now, let's look at previous recessions to see if we can find some patterns that help us predict the coming one. 😊 This is how you can navigate through the chart: - past recessions are highlighted with orange colored boxes based on the data from "FRED economic data". - The purple line chart shows the US inflation rate. - The US GDP is shown in a green step-line chart. - The US interest rate is shown with an orange line. - The Yellow line chart shows the unemployment rate in the US. - The most important line chart here is the blue one that shows the spread between the 10-year bond yield and the 3-month bond yield (Yes we could also use 2-year instead of 3-month). This blue line, the yield curve, is important to us because it's a reliable indicator that almost every time gave us a heads up for a recession (if you were looking at it of course 😁). When it falls below zero, we call it the inverted yield curve and we hit a recession almost every time it gets back up after spending some time below zero. An inverted yield curve tells us that the market participants are concerned about future economic growth It can lead to tighter financial conditions, reduced lending, and lower consumer and business spending, which can contribute to a downturn in the economy. With that said, take a look at the chart and you can easily spot the repetitive pattern of interest rate hikes/cuts, unemployment rate, and the inverted yield curve just before each recession. With the strong possibility of having the first rate cut in September, and the patterns you see on the chart, can you say that we are going to have a hard landing and a recession? I would say yes. If you say we are not going into a recession and your counter argument is backed by a low unemployment rate and a positive GDP and a declining inflation rate, this chart does not support the idea. I know there are other factors that might support the soft landing scenario, and I would like to have your point of view on this. So, please share your thoughts in comments section if you are reading this post through Tradingview. 😊 For further research, you can pull up the charts of indices like S&P500 or commodities of your choice to see how they moved during each recession. This will help you find some patterns that might assist you in your future investments.
TVC:US10Y
by SamanFx0
US10Y - Lackluster TradingBased on the weekly timeframe, candlestick closed out as a bearish shooting star, alongside a gap opening @ 4.235 - 4.217% which can be classed as a volume imbalance. The weekly timeframe has left a sour taste in buysides mouth as the upper wick has poached the mean threshold of the 1st -8th Jul monthly timeframe before closing lower. The two days that we have seen massive impact is Thursday and Friday, with the weekly order block being tagged on the Thursday and the Thursdays daily low taken out on the friday via a candlebody closure below sellside. This indicates further weakness and a possible continuation to the downside, at least to 4.144% weekly sellstops. With a slight adjustment of the weekly order block, (so, instead if the 4th March 24 OB, 29th Jan 24 OB) i can see that last weeks trading range was 1 tick off from the array @ 4.145%. With unfinished business at this region, it's safe to say that if the market continues lower, 4.038% will be the end target for next week as a draw on liquidity
TVC:US10Y
by LegendSince
$US02Y $US10Y $GLD $IVOL $TLT - The Chart tells the futureHere we have a historical chart showing what will likely be obvious in 2 quarters. The chart bats 100% on the issue but not on the resolution. As you can see with LTCM and the Bhat crisis in the late 90s. This chart is great for signaling when to risk-off, it does not signal risk on, for that I use the CBOE:BXY . The way I play the waiting game after going risk off is exposure to AMEX:IVOL NASDAQ:IEF AMEX:GLD NASDAQ:TLT AMEX:UUP Cheers,
TVC:US02YLong
by rwoods187
US10Y yield to 8%+I know most people don't think this is a possibility, but I think it's highly probable. I think we'll see the US10Y break the recent highs and head to 5.59% as the first target to the upside. Then I think we'll continue the bullish trend and end the bullish move in yields at 8.13%, I think at that point, that's when you'll want to go long risk for the long term. I think shorting the 10yr and 20yr bonds, might be a great trade over the next 6 months. I think the start of the move might take a little bit to play out, but should really gain steam from March onwards. Let's see what happens over the coming months.
TVC:US10YLong
by benjihyam
3
US 10Y TREASURY: waits for PCE dataAs there has not been currently important macro data posted during the previous week, the investors were weighing comments from Fed officials on a potential course of action when interest rates are in question. In this sense, Mary Daly, Fed President of San Francisco, noted her hopes for more data which would indicate that the inflation is on its way to the 2% target. She commented on some good progress in this direction, but concluded that “we are not there yet”. Fed Governor Christopher Waller also commented on the potential for rate cuts in a similar manner. Fed Chair Powell should also be mentioned in this context, as he noted that the first rate cut will occur before the inflation reaches the 2% target. The 10Y benchmark Treasury yields continued to trade with a downtrend during the first half of the week, reaching the lowest weekly level at 4.14%. The second half of the week they reverted a bit to the upside, ending the week at the level of 4.24%. The US PCE data are set for a release during the week ahead, which would most certainly bring some higher volatility to the Treasury yields. As per current charts, there is some probability that the level of 4.3% could be tested, however, the long term perspective of the yields is to the downside.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y Expecting a bullish reversal at the bottom.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) initially expanded but then took a breather on the new Bullish Leg, as per our January 24 (see chart below) buy signal, before hitting our Target: The price is now approaching the bottom of the 2-year Channel Up yet again and by next week a 1D Death Cross will be completed. The 2 previous such formations within the Channel Up, have both been made right on its Higher Lows. As a result, we consider this a great bullish opportunity for the medium-term. Our Target is intact at 5.000%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YLong
by TradingShot
US10Y Q2-Q3 FY24 FORECAST : WHATS NEXT BROThis is one of those calls i hope dont play out cause with dxy indicating higher for longer and rates being held and cuts being reduced to one for the year its clear that next years estimates will be revised as well. Expecting a continuation at the 2nd level if that breaks look like we officially in bear country. Any logical investor will be defensive especially if Jamie Dimon warning wall street (flexing he's finance influencer side hustle) everyone is preparing dont be optimistic never too bullsih never to bearish just accept the cause to an effect. But since everyone is expecting a recession i wonder how random it will be.
TVC:US10YLong
by Bekiumuzi_Dube
US 10Y TREASURY: easing with lower groundsInflation data posted during the previous week were the ones that the market was closely watching. A better than expected inflation in June in the US made an impact on Treasury yields. The consumer price index in June was down 0.1% from the figure posted in May, bringing CPI to the level of 3.0% on a yearly basis. At the same time core inflation was higher by 0.1% on a monthly basis, bringing core inflation to the level of 3.3% y/y. The evident slowdown in inflation figures supported market expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates in September this year, in which sense, 10Y Treasury yields dropped to the level of 4.18% as of the end of the week. In terms of technical analysis, the 10Y Treasury yields are still testing the 4.20% level. In this sense some lower volatility might be expected in the week ahead. The market might turn once again to the upside, to the levels modestly above the 4.20% level. Charts are indicating probability for 4.30%, however, this might be the case for a week or two weeks ahead. In any case, the longer term perspective for Treasury yields is further decreased.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX