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Decline in the 10-year Treasury yieldsThe US office market is facing challenges, with a decline in the 10-year Treasury yields, and the value of distressed US offices reaching $24.8 billion, surpassing that of malls. This trend indicates a severe challenge in the distressed office market. Distressed offices refer to office buildings facing rising vacancy rates, declining rental income, and financial difficulties. Over the past few years, the demand for office buildings has declined due to the accelerated trend of remote work and increased economic uncertainty, leading to distress in many office buildings. The reflection of this data suggests that the shopping center industry is no longer the primary focus in the commercial real estate market, as distressed offices have become the center of attention for investors. Investors' focus on distressed offices may stem from their potential investment opportunities, such as acquiring undervalued office buildings and gaining returns through leasing and repositioning. Due to lackluster new housing data, the US Treasury 10-year yields experienced a decline on the day. The disappointing new housing data may trigger market concerns, indicating a sluggish performance in the real estate market. Investors typically pay close attention to the performance of the real estate market as it has significant implications for interest rates and economic growth. Treasury bonds are essential investment instruments, and their yields are considered indicators of market sentiment and investor risk appetite. When new housing data shows signs of weakness, investors may lean towards purchasing safer assets such as Treasury bonds as a hedge. However, it is important to note that a single data point cannot entirely determine market trends. Fluctuations in Treasury yields are influenced by various factors, including inflation expectations, monetary policy, and the global economic environment. Therefore, investors should consider multiple data points and market factors when making decisions. In summary, the US Treasury 10-year yields declined on the day due to the release of disappointing new housing data. Investors expressed concerns about the sluggishness in the real estate market, potentially leading them to favor relatively safer assets such as Treasury bonds. However, fluctuations in Treasury yields are influenced by multiple factors, necessitating a comprehensive consideration of other data and market factors.
TVC:US10YShort
by financeporter
US 10Y TREASURY: waiting for Fed Debate over the question whether FED should further increase interest rates or not is still quite active among economists. A Nobel-prise winner and economist Christopher Pissarides is of the opinion that there is no need for the US to further increase interest rates, as noted in an interview with CNBC. Many other influential economists share his opinion. However, Fed Chair Powell previously noted that two more rate hikes should be expected till the end of this year. At the same time, CME's Fedwatch is showing investors expectations of 92% for a 25 bps rate hike at July`s FOMC meeting. Until the final decision, US Treasury yields might express higher volatility, as seen during the previous week. 10Y US Treasuries reached the level of 4% two weeks ago, still, during the previous week, yields have dropped to the short term stop at 3.8%. Lowest weekly level was at 3.76%. Volatility around 3.8% might also continue during the week ahead. At this moment on charts, there is a low probability that yields might return to 3.6%. They will rather oscillate around 3.8% or higher, waiting for the FOMC meeting as of the end of July.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Most banks are below March crisis level, what's happening?We saw an improvement in the CPI numbers at 3%, but the PCE number is what Fed is concerned with as it is still lingering around its high point. Out of the approximately 4,000 banks in the United States, it seems like JP Morgan, among these top 7 banks we are seeing here, is the only bank that has climbed back up from the March banking crisis. The rest are still well below their March levels. If interest rate continues to rise, will that trigger another banking crisis? Some reference for traders: Micro Treasury Yields & Its Minimum Fluctuation Micro 2-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 5-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 5YY 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 10-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 30-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 30Y 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
TVC:US30Y
by konhow
US10Y A break below the 1D MA50 will trigger a 2nd sell-off.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that has been supporting the price action since May 16. The long-term trend since the October 21 2022 market top has been bearish, guided downwards by a Lower Lows trend-line but since February it has transitioned into a Rectangle. The recent July 07 High was a direct hit at the top of the Rectangle, so this week's rejection comes as a very natural consequence. If the price closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50, the 2nd part of the Rectangle's bearish leg will most likely be triggered. As you see during this long-term pattern, we've had two -19.70% decline sequences and if the current one turns out to be of that magnitude, we are looking at a 3.300% target. Note that 4 days ago we formed a 1D Golden Cross, technically a bullish pattern, but the previous 1D Death Cross (bearish pattern) turned out to be the Rectangle's bottom. On that notion, the Golden Cross may have formed the top. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
3
US10Y: Excellent long term sell opportunity.The US10Y turned neutral on the 1D timeframe today (RSI = 51.795, MACD = 0.074, ADX = 33.857) after it got rejected on R1 two days ago. It is likely to see a sharp fall as on the March 2nd rejection, and in that case S1 and S2 won't pose any bullish pressure to the downtrend, nor should the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200, which in the past 12 months haven't had any such significance. Consequently, we consider the current level early enough for a low risk sell position on the long term, targeting the S3 (TP = 3.300%). As you see, the trading structure follows quite similar legs since November and right now we are most likely on a leg 2. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
9
US 10Y TREASURY: 4% will holdFor some time charts were pointing to a potential for US10Y to reach 4% level, which finally occurred during the previous week. Job figures released for June show that average hourly earnings continue to be increased, 0.4% m/m in June or 4.4% on a yearly basis, which might bring inflation further to the higher grounds, which will push FOMC to further increase interest rates. Market sentiment for an increase in July reached 92%, but whether the Fed will have the same perception is about to be seen as of the end of July, when the FOMC meeting is scheduled. 10Y Treasuries started the previous week around 3.8%, however, after released jobs data, yields jumped to the highest weekly level at 4.09%. Considering current sentiment, it could be expected for yields to continue to be elevated during the week ahead. At this moment, there is decreased potential that they might revert to the previous, 3.8% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
Is it time to switch "treasures"?-The US government's 2-year bond is trying to form a new bullish pivot on the monthly chart. -I believe that it will not have enough strength to go further, that is, to break the pre SUBPRIME peak of 2008, in the region of 5,283, as inflation at the moment (short term) seems to want to cool down. -But long-term inflation, I'm sorry to say that you may not want to let your guard down, so 5 and 10 year bonds may reach new highs. -On the weekly chart we have an accumulation of prices, and the projection of this accumulation suggests the region of 5330 as a possible maximum destination for the prices of the 2-year bond. -The SETUP used also projects purchasing power up to the range of 5,338 according to the high pivot also shown by the SETUP used! -The daily chart already shows exhaustion, so you need to pull back on the long average just below if you really want to look for the 5,338 region. -Do your analysis and good business. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop! -See below for other graphic reviews!
TVC:US02Y
by MacD_Bollinger
US 10Y yield levels following the break of its 9-month dtrendDisclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10YLong
by The_STA
It might be the right time to buy 10 year TreasuriesI see a big opportunity on treasuries with the rates that the treasauries are trading at. Why? Inflation has been going down consistently from 9.1% to 4% and the PPI (which is the Producer Price Index) from 11.1% to 1.1%. These indicators usually draw near the core CPI which has been sticky above 5% and has been the aim for the FED. Rents and some services have been raised this year and are not going down or stabilizing 12 year compared until next year. There is a lag effect in the economy regarding the rate hikes of about 12 to 18 months and we are still to see many of the effects noting that they have been restrictive for just 9 months. Another nice data is the base, 12 month old prices. May and June are the top of the prices from last year due to the supply chain issues and the Russia Ucranie war. Oil went up to 130 dollar a barrel and most of commodities topped last year. So the CPI next week should be a 14 year high real yield high when a 3.2 to 3.5% print on the CPI should show more inflation loosening. Economy is stil in a tight spot, with a strong labor market which made the last rate decisión of the FED a prediction of two more rate hikes this year. Eventhough since then 2 voting members have seen the posible mistake of keep hiking and have said that they should still see the effects of the 500 rate increase and not hike more for at least this year. This alone should drive a big buy througout the curve. Economy is not that strong to see a 14 year high in real yield for a 10 year high with much analysts, including the FED are expecting at least a mild recesión. So rates are very high taking into account the análisis made. A 3.50% on the 10 year and a 4.30% on the 2 year are the aims. But the market has been frightened and selling due to the losses they took from anticipating this move too early. The recent debt limit helped a lot recently for those losses, but its an issue that has been dealt with. A frightened market ussually is an opportunity and I think this is one of them. We still need to see the other 7 memebers of the FED agree, but in an educated guess the next week CPI data must do the job.
TVC:US02YLong
by acrispino
1
No coincidences hereThis is a new type of experiment regarding the simulation of scenarios. I am bullish biased on this one because of the candlestick pattern on the Daily chart. Looking forward to see if there is any meaning to these drawings and their correlation with the future price action. Strategy and money management are key to success? The law of large numbers has its own story and puts everything in context. The context of probabilities and potentials. I am more interested in creating drawings that make sense after the future unfolds, exploring the computational potential of the unconscious brain activity, if it exists.
OANDA:DE10YBEUR
by nen