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EURCAD BULLISH FOR 100PIPSTechnical Analysis: Chart Patterns: A bullish pattern like an ascending triangle, bullish flag, or double bottom could suggest that EUR/CAD is poised for an upward movement. Support and Resistance: If the pair has recently bounced off a key support level and is approaching resistance, breaking through resistance could result in a 100-pip rise. Moving Averages: If short-term moving averages (like the 50-period MA) cross above longer-term moving averages (like the 200-period MA), it could signal bullish momentum. Indicators: Bullish indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) might also show a potential upward move. 2. Fundamental Factors: Eurozone Economic Data: Positive economic data from the Eurozone (such as GDP growth, employment figures, or inflation reports) could strengthen the Euro. Canadian Economic Data: Weakness in Canadian economic indicators (like poor GDP growth, falling oil prices, or weak inflation) could lead to the Canadian Dollar weakening. Interest Rate Differentials: If the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates or signals tighter monetary policy while the Bank of Canada (BoC) remains dovish or cuts rates, the Euro could strengthen relative to the Canadian Dollar. 3. Sentiment & News: Risk Appetite: A positive shift in market sentiment (risk-on) might lead traders to buy the Euro as the Eurozone economy may be perceived as stable, especially if the CAD is correlated with commodities like oil. Geopolitical Events: News events affecting the Canadian economy (like a natural disaster or a disruption in oil production) might cause a temporary decline in the Canadian Dollar.
Long
by LORDOFTHETRADERS
SHORT GBPJPY GBPJPY Technical Analysis February 7, 2025 Short Setup Analysis Yen Strength Daily: Major support break 4H: Price retesting EMA 21 Higher timeframe trend: Bearish Technical Structure Break of major support level on daily trend line Retest of EMA 21 on 4-hour chart Bearish momentum confirmed Multiple timeframe alignment show of strength in other yen pairs Trade Setup Entry: Short at EMA 21 retest (4H) Stop Loss: Above recent swing high Target: August 2024 support level Entry Confirmation: Rejection at EMA 21 on 4h
Short
by aryoTraderX
GBPJPY BEAR MARKET BEGINS Here’s a polished and professional version of your market update: GBP/JPY Market Update: Key Levels and Macro Context After some time away, we’re back with a critical update. Traders who entered short at 192.5, as we highlighted nearly a week ago, have secured substantial profits. The market has now broken below the ascending parallel weekly channel, which had been respected three times on the weekly timeframe, confirming a clean technical breakdown. Current Outlook & Key Levels • Next Target: 185 region, aligning with daily order block liquidity. • Weekly SMA Analysis: • Price has broken below both the 10 and 50 SMAs, with the 10 SMA now crossing below the 50, signaling weakness on the higher timeframes. • The 100 SMA aligns with the weekly timeframe, acting as a potential support zone. • A break below the 100 SMA could accelerate the selloff towards 181. • Market Structure & Macro Considerations: • No clear upper resistance on the weekly chart, but we do see weekly support at 181. • The BOJ’s tightening policy is strengthening the Yen, adding downward pressure on GBP/JPY. • A break of the daily order block at 190 confirms further bearish momentum. Technical Breakdown – Weekly & Daily Insights • Moving Averages & Trend Analysis: • After nearly two years, the 20 EMA has crossed below the 50 SMA on the weekly timeframe, signaling a potential larger correction. • Ichimoku Cloud: Price is below the cloud, conversion line, and baseline, reinforcing bearish sentiment. • Volume & Momentum Indicators: • Volume Profile: Next high-value node (HVN) at 181, making it a critical level. • RSI (Weekly): 42.02 – Bearish, rejected off its moving average at 194. • MACD: Deep red, confirming momentum to the downside. • ATR: Increased volatility but below its 20 EMA. • OBV: Shows clear signs of volume leaving the market. • ADX: Negative DMI is above positive DMI, ADX at 15.65, indicating a weak bearish trend for now. • Contrarian Put-Call Ratio Analysis: • On January 13th, the ratio was below the lower band, suggesting traders had overloaded on calls, a contrarian signal for a bearish move. Lower Timeframe Market Structure – Daily & 4H • Retracement Levels: • Price has reached the 0.618 retracement level. A key question remains: Will this level provide support, or do we move toward 185? • A break below 169 would invalidate the larger bullish structure since 2023, confirming a longer-term bear market. • Daily Timeframe Insights: • Descending Channel: Price has reacted off the lower boundary. • Bollinger Bands: Price has not entered the upper band since January 8th, indicating sustained weakness. • Key Support Levels: 188.995 has been broken, confirming further downside potential. • Order Blocks: 190.668 bullish order block has been broken, confirming a structural shift toward bearish momentum. Macro & Fundamental Outlook • Yen Strength: Safe-haven flows and BOJ policy shifts support a continued JPY appreciation. • Political Uncertainty: With Trump returning to the White House, geopolitical risks and uncertainty will favor the Yen as a safe-haven asset. • Liquidity Considerations: • Volume is light below 190, meaning moves could be quick and violent. • Traders using high leverage should proceed with caution. Intraday & Countertrend Considerations • 4H & 2H Timeframe Analysis: • 4H RSI at 29.17 – Oversold but no strong reversal confirmation yet. • MACD deep red; ATR shows increased volatility. • 2H ADX at 40.22, indicating strong downward momentum, though momentum exhaustion may be approaching. • Potential Counter-Long Trade: • 188 region could provide a short-term bounce, aligning with a historical pivot point from December 3rd. • For those taking counter-trend longs: Risk should be kept at 0.5%. • Stop-loss and take-profit strategy: TP could align with the bullish OB and descending channel retest near 190.6. Final Thoughts Key Takeaways • Next Major Target: 185 (Daily Order Block), potential move to 181 if breakdown continues. • Bearish Confirmation: Break below 100 SMA & Weekly Ichimoku Cloud. • Yen Strengthening Due to BOJ Policy & Risk-Off Sentiment. • No Signs of Bullish Reversal Yet – Counter-trend trades should be approached with caution. Trade smart. Stay ahead.
Short
by EliteMarketAnalysis
EURUSD EUR/USD Expected Move – Elliott Wave & ICT Breakdown (📌 No Trades, Just Setup & Rules Used for Analysis) --- 📌 Elliott Wave Breakdown – Structure & Expected Path 1️⃣ Identifying the Macro Structure 📊 The larger timeframe on EUR/USD shows a corrective structure after the impulse down from 1.12x, which aligns with either: A Three-Wave (ABC) Zigzag Correction A Five-Wave Impulse with Ongoing Wave 2 Retracement 🔹 Key Considerations: ✅ If ABC correction, we are currently in Wave C towards 1.0850-1.10 before further decline. ✅ If Wave 2 Retracement, then a Wave 3 Bullish Expansion should follow. --- 2️⃣ Elliott Wave Rules Applied to Confirm This Structure 💡 Wave A: The Initial Down Move Consisted of 5 sub-waves, confirming an impulse move downward from 1.12x to 1.018. This move confirmed the start of a corrective phase or the end of a larger impulsive cycle. 💡 Wave B: The Countertrend Retracement (Current Stage) Typically retraces between 38.2% - 88.6% Fib of Wave A. In this case, the current Wave B zone is developing between 1.034 - 1.057. If B Wave is still active, it can extend up to 1.085 - 1.10 before reversal. If Wave B is complete, we are starting Wave C down to create a new low. 💡 Wave C: The Final Move Before Decision Point If we see a full ABC Zigzag, Wave C should extend to 1.0850-1.10, completing the structure. If it fails early (below 1.0680), the structure is invalid, and we re-enter bearish Wave 3 directly. --- 📌 ICT Breakdown – Liquidity, Order Blocks & Market Psychology 1️⃣ Identifying Market Structure & MSS (Market Structure Shift) 📊 The price action broke below 1.0256, indicating a bearish structure shift. 📊 However, the presence of Fair Value Gaps (FVG) & Order Blocks (OB) suggests liquidity pools that must be mitigated before the next major move. 🔹 Key Considerations: ✅ A Market Structure Shift (MSS) occurred below 1.0256, meaning a correction was needed. ✅ A Bullish FVG + Order Block at 1.0200-1.0250 supports an upward move before bearish continuation. ✅ Liquidity pools exist at 1.0570, 1.0850, and 1.10, meaning smart money may push the price higher before reversing. --- 2️⃣ ICT Rules Applied to Confirm Price Action 💡 Sell-Side Liquidity Grab Before Bullish Move Large liquidity pools sit below 1.0200. This was taken out, which suggests a fakeout before a true bullish move. 💡 Fair Value Gaps & Order Blocks for Entries Bullish Order Block (OB) at 1.0218 aligns with Wave 2 retracement. FVG between 1.028 - 1.034 suggests price must return to fill before resuming bullish. 💡 Sell-Side & Buy-Side Liquidity Traps Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) below 1.0200 was grabbed, supporting a bullish reversal. Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) exists at 1.0680, 1.0850, and 1.10, meaning price could target these zones before reversing. --- 📌 Conclusion: Why These Trades Were Chosen 📌 Elliott Wave: The ABC corrective move suggests 1.0850 is a required target before reversing. If this fails to reach 1.0850, it means we enter Wave 3 downward immediately from 1.0570-1.0680. 📌 ICT: Smart money needs to clear liquidity pools before reversing. Liquidity above 1.0850-1.10 must be taken before institutions flip the market bearish. --- 📌 Next Steps for Confirmation ✅ If Wave B extends further to 1.085-1.10, we wait for reversal signs at those levels. ✅ If Wave B has already completed, we monitor for early rejection at 1.0570-1.0680 for a short setup. --- 🚀 This is the combined Elliott Wave & ICT move logic for EUR/USD.
Long
by HuntingTraps
GBPJPYOn February 6, 2025, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey spoke after the BoE Monetary Policy Committee decided to cut the Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it down to 4.5% Key Points from Bailey's Remarks: Rate Cut Justification: The cut was made due to the progress in reducing inflationary pressures in the UK economy, allowing for a less restrictive monetary policy. Future Rate Cuts: Bailey indicated the possibility of further rate cuts as the disinflation process continues, but these will be assessed "meeting by meeting". Inflation Outlook: Inflation is expected to increase to around 3.7% this year before returning to the 2% target. The Bank Rate will be set to ensure this happens sustainably. Economic Activity: The UK economy has been weaker than expected, and GDP growth is projected to be notably weaker in the near term before picking up. Tariff Impact: Bailey acknowledged that the UK couldn't avoid the impact of potential U.S. tariffs, even if not directly targeted2. He noted that if tariffs lead to a fragmentation of the global economy, it would not be beneficial for growth. Gradual and Careful Approach: Bailey emphasized a gradual and careful approach to withdrawing monetary policy restrictiveness, citing increased uncertainty and risks to inflation1. Dovish Reaction: Bailey cautioned markets against overreacting to the policy vote. Uncertainty: The outlook for the British economy remains uncertain. MPC Split: Seven of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) supported the 0.25 percentage point decrease, while two advocated for a more substantial cut of 50 basis points. GBPJPY will correct the long bearish drop tomorrow and hopefully before the end of the month come to my demand floor.
by Shavyfxhub
EURJPY Wave Analysis – 6 February 2025 - EURJPY broke support zone - Likely to fall to support level 156.00 EURJPY currency pair today broke support zone between the support level 158.00 (which reversed the price at the start of this month) and the support trendline of the daily down channel from December. The breakout of this support zone strengthened the bearish pressure on this currency pair, which accelerated the active impulse wave iii. EURJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 156.00 (which has been reversing the price from August).
Short
by FxProGlobal
EUR/USD potential Short setup Here are some key observations: 1. Resistance Zone (Supply Zone): • Highlighted in red at the top, indicating a potential area where price may reverse downward. 2. Support Zone (Demand Zone): • Highlighted in red at the bottom, showing a potential target area for price to bounce. 3. Projected Price Movement: • The black zigzag line suggests a strategy where the price is expected to reach the resistance zone, then reverse downward toward the support zone. • The take-profit level is marked near 1.02000, suggesting a short (sell) trade expectation. 4. Risk-Reward Ratio & Volume: • The shaded purple area represents the potential trade setup. • Volume bars at the bottom show trading activity levels.
by Strike_Trader
2
GBP/JPY: Finally, the Rate Cut Has Arrived!GBP/JPY is facing significant bearish pressure, with the price dropping to around 188.40 in the recent sessions on February 6, 2025. The main catalyst behind this trend has been the Bank of England’s interest rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing it down to 4.5%. This decision has intensified the weakness of the British pound, prompting investors to liquidate long positions and fueling the strong decline in the pair. The market is now pricing in the possibility of further rate cuts in the coming months, which keeps sentiment firmly bearish. From a technical perspective, the breakdown below the key level of 190.50 has confirmed the loss of bullish momentum. Even the recovery attempts seen in previous days, such as the rebound to 193.00 on February 4, have proven weak and incapable of reversing the primary trend. The current phase of weakness could lead the pair to test further lower support levels, with 187.50 and then 185.80 as possible bearish targets unless there is a positive reaction from the pound. On the macroeconomic front, the divergence between the BoE and the Bank of Japan could theoretically provide some medium-term support for the pound, given that the BoJ continues to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy. However, the market currently seems more focused on the deteriorating economic outlook for the UK and the increasing likelihood that the BoE will continue cutting rates, enhancing the yen’s appeal as a defensive asset. If risk-off sentiment intensifies, we could see an acceleration of the bearish trend in GBP/JPY, especially if the global market enters a more pronounced risk-averse phase.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1