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Short**Market Outlook and Technical Perspective** **Key Price Levels:** - **Resistance Threshold:** 113.030 – A decisive break above this level would negate the bearish outlook, suggesting potential trend reversal. - **Support Targets:** Immediate downside targets are 106.332 and 104.805, with a critical *Major Support* at 102.800. A close below 102.800 confirms renewed selling momentum. **Chart Pattern & Trend Dynamics:** - A **descending flag pattern** is emerging on the chart, typically a bearish continuation signal. This reinforces expectations of a downward leg, targeting the noted support levels. - Price remains below the **WEMA21** (21-period Weighted Exponential Moving Average), which now serves as dynamic resistance. Any upward retracement could face selling pressure near this moving average. **Momentum Analysis:** - **RSI (Relative Strength Index):** At 41, the RSI reflects bearish momentum but is not yet oversold. A sustained downtrend in the RSI (marked by its own unbroken bearish trendline) aligns with the price’s weakness. - **Recent Price Action:** The peak at 111.550 (20 Nov 2024) established a lower high, signaling fading bullish strength and opening the door for further declines. **Scenario Analysis:** 1. **Bearish Continuation:** While price holds below 113.030, the path of least resistance favors a drop toward 102.800, especially if sellers breach 106.332. 2. **Bullish Invalidation:** A close above 113.030 or a break of the RSI’s downtrend line could signal short-term bearish exhaustion, warranting caution for downside bets. **Conclusion:** The confluence of the descending flag, resistance at WEMA21, and RSI momentum supports a bearish bias. Traders should monitor reactions at 106.332 and 104.805 for downside acceleration, while guarding against a surprise break above 113.030 that would challenge the current thesis.
Short
by Rohan_Jas
AUDNZD - 29 Jan 2025 SetupAUDNZD Market structure are making N pattern on the market structure with strong Bearish drop. Spotted supply area on H4 Timeframe (Red Rectangle). its a good structure after the price creating a new Low breaking our last bearish structure to the downside. Entry Position : Short Profit Target : 1:3 Shown on the chart image (Green Line) Stop Loss : Slightly above supply area (Red Line) Follow me if u guys making any gains from this idea. Thanks Coffee Trade Team
Short
by CoffeeTrade_Official
idea on a chartWe have a great chart where price could go.One of the biggest reasons the euro has been rallying against the Australian dollar is due to the fact that the Chinese economy has been so sluggish. The Australian economy is highly levered to what’s going on in China, as a huge portion of the commodities in Australia ended up on the Chinese mainland. As long as the Chinese economy is sluggish, it does make a certain amount of sense that the Australian dollar will fall. At this point in time, the 2 economies are so interlocked that it’s essentially a proxy for Chinese economic performance.
by EZIO-FX
USD/CAD Analysis: Market Surges on Tariff NewsFundamental Overview: The USD/CAD currency pair experienced a sharp surge, reaching its highest level since April 2003, trading around 1.4710. This movement was triggered by recent trade policy announcements and economic data affecting both the U.S. and Canadian economies. Trade Tariff Announcement: U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 25% import tariff on Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy exports. These protectionist measures have heightened trade tensions and weakened the Canadian dollar. Economic Data: Canadian GDP showed a 0.2% decline in November 2024, with a preliminary estimate of a 0.2% rebound in December 2024. The mixed data has failed to instill confidence in the Canadian dollar, keeping downward pressure on it. Treasury Yield Impact: U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated as investors move their funds to safer assets, further boosting demand for the U.S. dollar. The combination of trade uncertainty, weak Canadian economic data, and robust demand for U.S. assets continues to fuel USD/CAD bullish momentum. Technical Outlook: On the technical front, USD/CAD bulls remain firmly in control as the pair trades near the critical psychological level of 1.4700. Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4750. A break above this level could pave the way for further gains, targeting 1.4800 in the near term. Support Levels: On the downside, initial support is at 1.4630, followed by the pivotal 1.4500 level. A breach below this zone could trigger a correction toward 1.4430, which aligns with the daily 72 EMA.
by softt_inc
Dollar Rebounds as Tariffs Take the SpotlightThe US dollar is bouncing back after a couple of weeks of losses, showing it's still a strong currency. This comeback is thanks to good economic news in the US, different central bank policies around the world, and the recent US tariffs. Let's take a closer look at what's making the dollar stronger and what might happen to other currencies this week. The Dollar's Comeback: Why is it Happening? The dollar's recent rebound isn't just a random event; it shows how strong it really is. A few things are making it more powerful. First, the US economy is doing better than many other countries. We've seen good GDP growth, a strong job market, and inflation that's sticking around. This makes the US dollar a good option for investors who want stability. Second, the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the US is keeping interest rates high, while other big central banks like the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) are actually cutting rates. This makes the US dollar even more attractive because investors can get better returns here. Finally, the US has put tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. This might not hurt the US economy much directly, but it could cause more trade problems and make things uncertain, which could actually make the dollar even stronger as people look for a safe place to put their money. Looking at the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against other major currencies, we can see this rebound in action. The DXY had a strong week last week, forming a bullish candlestick pattern. This suggests that the dollar's upward momentum could continue. The next key level to watch is around 110. If the DXY can break above this level, it could signal further gains for the dollar. US Labor Market & FED The US job market is a big reason why the dollar is doing well. Unemployment is really low, new jobs are being created, and wages are going up. This strong job market keeps inflation around, which is why the Fed keeps interest rates high, and that helps the dollar. This week, we'll get some important reports about jobs, like the JOLTs report, ADP private payrolls, and the big Nonfarm Payrolls report. If these reports show the job market is still strong, the dollar will likely keep getting stronger and the Fed will probably keep interest rates high. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which decides on interest rates in the US, is meeting soon. What people will really be watching is what they say about the future. With the economy doing well and those new tariffs may be causing inflation, the Fed will probably keep talking about leaving rates where they are in the near future. This would make the dollar even stronger given the difference in policy approach compared to other central banks. Trade Wars: Trouble for Other Currencies Those new tariffs have people worried about trade wars and what they might do to the global economy. The Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar are especially vulnerable because they rely a lot on trade with the US and China. The Canadian dollar has already dropped because of the tariffs, and it might fall further if trade gets worse. The New Zealand dollar is also in a tough spot because the Chinese economy is slowing down, which could hurt New Zealand's exports. On top of that, the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand might cut interest rates, which would make their currencies even weaker. USD/CAD has surged higher, breaking above its recent trading range and gapping up significantly over the weekend due to the new US tariffs. The Canadian dollar is in a precarious position, facing substantial weakness against the US dollar. While many traders anticipate further upside, the level for a short-term reversal is not clear. Key levels to watch include 1.4600 and the lower gap boundary around 1.4500, which could act as potential turning points. Given the Canadian dollar's vulnerability, a reversal could occur at any moment. What About the UK and Europe? The Bank of England (BoE) in the UK is also likely to cut interest rates because their economy is slowing down and there's a lot of uncertainty. Most people expect this rate cut, but it's still important to listen to what the BoE says because any surprises could trigger a lot of volatility in the pound. The Eurozone is also facing challenges, with mixed economic data lately. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep things loose in terms of its policies, but any bad news could make the EURUSD pair fall to parity. The British pound has been in a downtrend for a while now. GBP/USD is currently attempting to fill the weekend gap, with a potential move up to 1.2380 before resuming its downward trajectory. Unless the Bank of England surprises with unexpectedly hawkish commentary, a longer-term decline towards 1.2100 seems likely. *This is a market analysis, not trading advice. Trade responsibly and do your own research.
by E8Markets
Update : NZD/USD Closed +140 Pips 0 Drawdown , Did You Enter ?Here is our NZD/USD Setup Hit Final Target +140 Pips 0 Drawdown , And Now We Have A Big Gap and i`m waiting until tomorrow to see what will happen and i will update it if i have any new setups on it . Congratulations . This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
Short
by FX_Elite_Club