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Bullish bounce?EUR/USD is has bounced off the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.0354 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.0290 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.0455 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
DAY 18: YOU LEARN,YOU LOSE AND YOU LEARN MORE.I'd say it has been an excellent week but I don't have tomorrow performance to support my statement.We still have more data tomorrow,NFP,which has very strong impact on monthly performance. Today we received rate cuts on the pound which sent it to the ground but for a few hours. I lost 30 pips on a buy @ 1.25 after the pound sunk to daily lows at 1.235. Since then the pound has recovered remarkably as investors seem focused on NFP more than the predictable rate cuts. Waiting on tomorrow to know whether we will break weekly highs @ 1.25400 or use that price as a rebound level towards lower levels @ 1.1900.
Long
by Muchangi
1
Banxico Accelerates the Pace of NormalizationThe recent monetary policy decision by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), which reduced the interest rate by 50 basis points to 9.5%, marks a significant moment in the current cycle of monetary normalization. Although the market consensus already anticipated a cut, the 50-basis-point magnitude reflects the majority of the Governing Board members’ confidence that domestic and external economic conditions allowed for a more substantial adjustment. It is worth noting that the vote was not unanimous, as Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath favored a smaller cut of 25 basis points. This move is in line with the message Banxico issued in December 2024, when it announced that if inflation trends remained favorable and economic conditions permitted, it would consider accelerating the pace of rate cuts. It is the first time in this cycle that the rate has been lowered by 50 basis points, following five 25-basis-point cuts in 2024. The inflation trend has been a key factor: with headline inflation finally falling below 4%—a level not seen since 2021—the central bank has additional room to ease monetary policy without losing sight of its 3% target. In addition to the positive news on prices, the Mexican economy is showing signs of weakness. During the fourth quarter of 2024, GDP contracted by -0.6% quarter-on-quarter, the first drop since 2021. Moreover, consumer confidence fell again, reaching 46.7 in January 2025, indicating increased caution in household spending. These factors, along with the temporary pause in tariffs by the United States, provided a relatively stable exchange environment that made a more aggressive cut feasible. Looking ahead, much of the effectiveness of this less restrictive monetary stance in boosting the economy will largely depend on the evolution of external risks, particularly trade negotiations with the United States. In this context, it will be crucial to monitor whether inflation remains within the target range and whether the peso maintains exchange rate stability. If new external pressures arise or inflation deteriorates, Banxico would very likely need to reassess the pace of upcoming cuts. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
GBPUSD: TP3 Hit +100 Pips (AccuTrade)GBP-USD edged lower ahead of the BoE meeting. The central bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25bp with markets expecting a 100% probability of a rate cut. The BoE members are expected to vote in a 8-1 split with Catherine Mann favoring no change. While the outcome should not have a material impact for GBP, risks remain that the board members vote for a unanimous rate cut or there is a vote for a 50bp cut. The central bank is also set to release its updated forecasts in this meeting (the quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR)), and expectations are for both growth and inflation forecasts to be downgraded given the recent release of downbeat data – weak growth amid a loosening labor market. If the BoE’s outlook for the year turns out to be more dovish than expected, we think there is room for markets to price in more rate cuts for 2025 (currently close to 85bp cuts as per swap market pricing as opposed to Governor Bailey’s suggestion of 100bp cuts), which could cause yield spreads to work against GBP.
Short
by AccuTrade2000
EURJPY: TP3 Hit +127 PipsUSD-JPY moved sideways ahead of President Trump and Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba’s meeting. The JPY has held on to its gains from yesterday, and notably, it has been the best performing currency in the G-10 space this week. The overnight comments by BoJ board member Naoki Tamura also helped, as he flagged the need for more interest rate hikes (Bloomberg). Some market participants might believe the recent fall in US yields – on the back of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on bringing down US 10-yr yields – could have driven the move lower in USD-JPY. However, by our estimates using historical elasticities, the narrower yield differential alone can explain about only half of the JPY’s c2.5% gain since the BoJ meeting. For USD-JPY, we think the market’s focus is on two other factors (beyond yields): (i) US-Japan relations, and (ii) GPIF asset allocation. On the former, Scott Bessent has already spoken to Japan’s finance minister and the BoJ governor. President Trump and Prime Minister Ishiba are set to meet later tonight and markets are on high alert for any potential discussion about USD-JPY (being too high). On the latter, the GPIF’s next 5-year investment plan will start in April 2025 and markets are speculating that the GPIF could start divesting from foreign assets to increase its allocation in domestic bonds. It is worth mentioning that the GPIF has an AUM of USD1.65tn. Given local investors are under-hedged the downward momentum in USD-JPY could quickly take a life of its own.
Short
by AccuTrade2000
UPDATE ON EUR/USD TRADE & ANALYSISEUR/USD 1H - As you can see price has now broken structure to the upside, giving us the confluence to suggest that this market is going to put in further bullishness now moving forward. In order for us to get involved in this market now we need to wait patiently for price to pullback trading into the area of Demand I have gone ahead and marked out, we can expect this to take place as price needs to set a higher low. The aggressive entry is running + 35 pips. (+ 2.3%) 2.3RR Once price trades down and into this area of price we can either wait for price to break structure fractally to the upside again before entering or just place a pending order in an around the zone to be activated once price trades in. You will see above I have a position already marked out, I will leave the details to that below. Any questions drop me a message or comment below!
Long
by Lukegforex
GBPUSD LIVE CHARTFor this week trading, i would prefer looking for buying opportunities on all foreign currencies reason for this is simply. DXY Dollar index has shown significant signs of weakness from last week trading very bearish. if the dollar index is trading lower, its reasonably to expect GBPUSD to trade bullish since they are corelated. Although am bullish but its preferable for price to trade lower and attack the sellside liquidity before we expect any form of a sustain price run higher to reach for the buyside lquidity. This is just a trading idea. stay safe
Long
by Adamusharu
1
Cable update BoE rate cutSo it looks like the trend will continue here from the previous update. With the equality in rates between the fed and the BoE, both long and short are on the table, but an advance to the upper targets, at least for now, seems the most likely. If it is to do so in an impulse pattern, however, it would need to break above this base channel, which is expected for a wave 3 of an impulse. Around the 1.28 level looks like the next target - perhaps for a 3rd wave termination point - let's see.
by JCore7
AUD/CHF "Aussie vs Swiss" Forex Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Thieves, 🤑 💰🐱‍👤 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the AUD/CHF "Aussie vs Swiss" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise Place Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at the recent / nearest low level Using the 4H timeframe, SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 0.57740 (or) Escape Before the Target Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook: AUD/CHF "Aussie vs Swiss" Forex Market market is currently experiencing a bullish trend,., driven by several key factors. ⚪Fundamental Analysis - Australia's economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace, driven by a strong labor market and rising commodity prices. - Switzerland's economy is also expected to grow, driven by a strong banking sector and a highly skilled workforce. - Interest rate differentials: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep interest rates on hold, while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to maintain its negative interest rate policy. 🟠Macro Economics - Global economic growth is expected to slow down in 2025, with a forecast of 3.0% global GDP growth rate. - Trade tensions between the US and China are expected to continue, which may impact Australia's export-driven economy. - The Swiss franc is expected to remain a safe-haven currency, attracting investors during times of market uncertainty. ⚫COT Report - As of the latest CoT report, non-commercials (speculators) are net long 15,000 contracts, indicating a bullish sentiment. - Commercials (hedgers) are net short 10,000 contracts, indicating a bearish sentiment. 🔴Sentimental Market - Retail traders are net long 60% of their positions, indicating a bullish sentiment. - Institutional traders are net long 55% of their positions, indicating a bullish sentiment. 🟡Positioning - Institutional traders are holding long positions in AUD/CHF, with an average position size of $1.2 million. - Retail traders are holding long positions in AUD/CHF, with an average position size of $12,000. 🔵Overall Outlook AUD/CHF is expected to trend bullish in the short term, driven by the bullish sentiment among retail and institutional traders. However, the pair may experience a short-term correction due to the bearish sentiment among commercials. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
Long
by Thief_Trader
USDJPY (Bearish Flag at Resistance, Watch for Breakout)HELLO TRADERS The chart shows the U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen pair in an ascending channel, with a strong fall followed by a bullish rally. Currently, the price is near the resistance line at 156.770, where it faces potential downward pressure, indicated by a bearish flag. A break below this could push the price to the support zone near 152.656, with a further downside target at 151.451. However, if the bullish trend resumes, a breakout above 156.770 could drive prices towards 158.615. Market sentiment, including the Fed’s and Japan's economic policies, will influence these movements.
Short
by ArinaKarayi
GBP/JPY Trade Setup – Supply & Demand Zones Smart Money ConceptAnalysis Overview The price is in a clear downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. A strong supply zone (red) around 190.514 acted as a resistance, leading to a sharp rejection and further downside movement. Key Levels: 🔴 Supply Zone: 189.800 - 190.500 (previous area of institutional sell orders) 🔵 Demand Zone: 188.000 - 188.300 (potential liquidity grab) 🟢 Entry Confirmation: A small consolidation before a bullish retracement. Trade Setup: Entry: Based on rejection from demand zone (188.000-188.300) Stop Loss: Below 188.018 (previous low) Take Profit: 190.514 (previous resistance) 📌 Market Bias: Bearish until price breaks above the supply zone. A retest of the demand zone could lead to a short-term bullish retracement before continuing the downtrend. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Trade with proper risk management! 🚀
Long
by naumanfx_