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USD/CAD Daily AnalysisPrice has been moving in a steady uptrend since the last quarter of 2024 with the big number 1.4600 next in sight. However, an observation to note is that that the MACD has recently made a lower high, contradicting what is happening with price. We call this divergence and it's a sign that in this case buyers may be losing their grip of the market. We could see either a short term or longer term sell off, but while price remains above the swing low of 1.42612, it would be advisable to remain patient and wait for a sell setup below this key price point.
by FusionMarkets
1
EURUSD Wednesday Jan29 AnalysisEURUSD Wednesday Jan29 analysis In Asia price is in a premium. Price pushes to the buy stop liquidity. London-Expecting lower prices at 2 London macro price hits the mog and seeks sell side liquidity from Tuesday. This an obvious move, in premium took buy side and has the equal lows for target to head to a discount. This candle formation is low resistance run on stops and FVG. Range box is 13 pips 2 macro to 3 run is 26 pips 4 macro Price bounces back up to the 50 level sets up for 4 macro to 5 price lower another 27 pips. With clear target and understanding the retracement levels and holding with partials I can build tolerance to trust price to hold longer in low resistance conditions. NY session-5 to 8 consolidates, fake run at 8, price is in a deep discount. 9 macro price comes up to the 50 level by 10:30. 9:15 to 10:30 27 pips to the FVG. -Note that price rebalanced the intraday FVG created in London for price to rebalance in NY. -Note the event horizon was the magnet for price at the 8 macro. -Note that price lowered to the CE of the FVG at 8 before the 9 macro.
by LeanLena
EURUSD Jan 27 Monday Analysis EURUSD Jan 27 Monday Analysis Monday-Price is in a discount in Asia in typical consolidation. Price takes equal lows and digs into a FVG. Judas swing to come back down and to test the FVG. Hovers around the MOG. Got to watch for the fake move. At 3 macro launches to the 50 by 4pm. 24pips At 5 macro at the 50 launches to the equal highs from Friday. Range box was 33 and total rally from 3:09 to 8:06 is 70pips. Londons range. NY At 9 2022 model breaking structure at 9:45 and heads for the 50 and get there by 12. 22 pips Back testing the fib with liquidity runs is the purpose of this detailed analysis.
by LeanLena
The Loonie's Fate: Can CAD Hold Against USD?The Canadian dollar (CAD) has been losing ground against the U.S. dollar (USD) for years, and this chart suggests that weakness could continue. Since 2015, every time CAD has tried to strengthen, it has failed to break below 1.20, showing a long-term downward trend. USD/CAD at 1.47: A Critical Turning Point Right now, the exchange rate is sitting at 1.4527, just below a key resistance level (1.47). Historically, this level has acted as a ceiling where CAD has struggled to hold its value. Two Possible Outcomes: 1. If CAD Holds Below 1.47 → Potential for Stabilization A rejection at 1.47 would mean CAD could regain some strength, at least in the short term. This could happen if the Bank of Canada holds rates steady while the U.S. Federal Reserve signals rate cuts. If USD weakens, CAD could stabilize around 1.39 or lower. 2. If USD/CAD Breaks Above 1.47 → CAD Could Sink Further A breakout above 1.47 would mean further CAD weakness, and we could see 1.60 or even 1.80 in the long run. This would be bad news for Canadian consumers, as inflation would likely surge. The Bank of Canada might be forced to act aggressively, keeping interest rates high for longer to stabilize the loonie. The Big Picture: Could We See 1.80? The chart suggests that if USD/CAD breaks out above 1.47, the next long-term move could reach 1.80, which would mean an additional 21% devaluation of CAD against USD. What That Would Mean for Canadians: More Expensive Imports: A weaker CAD means higher costs for goods priced in USD—electronics, vehicles, food, and even vacations in the U.S. Higher Inflation Risk: Imported goods would become more expensive, keeping inflation high and making it harder for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to cut rates. Potential Rate Hikes: If CAD weakens too much, the BoC may need to raise interest rates again to stabilize the currency, which could keep borrowing costs high. What Canadians Should Watch Oil Prices: Canada is a commodity-based economy, and higher oil prices typically strengthen CAD (since Canada is a major oil exporter). If oil prices rise, CAD could get some strength back, slowing the decline. Bank of Canada vs. U.S. Federal Reserve Policy: If the Bank of Canada keeps rates high while the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts rates, CAD could strengthen. But if the BoC cuts rates too early, CAD could fall further. Global Market Sentiment: In a risk-off environment, investors flock to USD for safety, weakening CAD. If risk appetite returns, CAD could stabilize. What Canadians Can Do to Prepare If USD/CAD Breaks 1.47 and Moves Higher: Hedge Against a Weak CAD: Consider holding some USD-denominated assets (U.S. stocks, USD savings). Lock in Loan Rates Now: A weakening CAD could keep rates high longer—fixed-rate mortgages may offer stability. Invest in Inflation-Protected Assets: If CAD weakens, commodities, energy stocks, and foreign investments could help hedge against inflation. Buy USD for Future U.S. Expenses: If you travel to the U.S. frequently, it might make sense to buy USD now before CAD weakens further. If USD/CAD Gets Rejected at 1.47 and CAD Recovers: Monitor U.S. Rate Cuts: If the Fed cuts rates, USD may weaken, giving CAD a chance to rebound. Be Ready for Short-Term Relief, But Plan for Long-Term Weakness: Even if CAD strengthens in the short term, the long-term trend still suggests CAD is vulnerable. Final Thoughts: The Loonie’s Fate Rests on 1.47 Right now, CAD is at a make-or-break level. If 1.47 holds, CAD may see short-term strength. If 1.47 breaks, CAD could face a significant decline, making life more expensive for Canadians. With inflation, interest rates, and oil prices all playing a role, this is a crucial time to pay attention to macroeconomic trends, as the next move in USD/CAD will impact Canadians' cost of living, mortgages, and investments. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
by LGLMUCHO
CADJPY - Buy Setup at Clear Support LevelOANDA:CADJPY is approaching a strong support zone, an area that has previously attracted buyers. The recent bearish momentum has pushed price closer to this zone, making it a key level to watch for potential buying interest. If buyers step in and confirm the support with bullish price action—such as rejection wicks, bullish engulfing candles, or increasing buying volume—I anticipate a move toward 107.710. However, if price breaks below this level, it could signal further downside and invalidate the bullish outlook. This is not financial advice but rather how I approach support/resistance zones. Remember, always wait for confirmation, whether it’s a strong rejection candle or a spike in volume, before making a move. Your support means the world! Every like and comment motivates me to share more insights. Also, let me know your thoughts in the comments—I’d love to hear your perspective! Best of luck , TrendDiva
Long
by TrendDiva
1
EUR/GBP Bearish Momentum – Eyes on Support Zone!📊 EUR/GBP Daily Chart Analysis (28th Jan 2025) 🔹 Overview: Pair: EUR/GBP Current Price: 0.83855 📉 (-0.10%) Key Indicators: 200 EMA (Red Line): 0.84129 (Price is below the EMA, indicating bearish sentiment) Resistance Zone (🟠 Orange Box): ~0.84200 - 0.84400 Support Zone (🟢 Green Box): ~0.83200 - 0.83400 🔻 Bearish Outlook: Price recently rejected the resistance zone and started declining. It is now trading below the 200 EMA, suggesting potential further downside. Next Target: The support zone (~0.83200 - 0.83400) is likely the next major level. 📉 Possible Scenarios: 1️⃣ Bearish Continuation ⬇️ If the price maintains momentum, it may head toward the support zone (~0.83200). A break below support could trigger further downside. 2️⃣ Bullish Rebound 🔄 If the price finds strong buying interest at support, a rebound toward the resistance (~0.84200) is possible. A breakout above 200 EMA could shift momentum back to bullish. 🎯 Trading Considerations: Short Opportunity: Below 0.83800, targeting 0.83400. Long Opportunity: If support holds around 0.83200, aiming for a move back to resistance. Breakout Watch: A move above 0.84200 could trigger bullish momentum. 🔥 Conclusion: Currently, the trend is bearish, and price action suggests further downside toward the support zone. Keep an eye on price behavior around 0.83400 for potential reactions.
by MrStellanSight