Pure Bearish Divergence on the MonthlyThe trend is your friend. Late to the party anyone? Tech is going to be so big this year, I know it.SHORT QQQ
ETF market
EEM - LongFundamental Analysis:
The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) tracks the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which includes stocks from developing economies like China, India, Brazil, and South Korea. These economies often experience higher growth rates than developed markets due to industrialization, increasing consumer spending, and favorable demographic trends. Here are some fundamental reasons to consider buying EEM:
Growth Potential in Emerging Markets:
Emerging markets are expected to grow faster than developed markets, driven by factors like expanding middle-class populations, urbanization, and increasing adoption of technology.
The IMF projects strong GDP growth for countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index over the next few years, which could support corporate earnings growth.
Valuation Discount:
Emerging market equities currently trade at a discount to developed markets, such as the U.S., on a price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) basis. This presents an attractive entry point for long-term investors.
Weakening U.S. Dollar:
Emerging market assets tend to benefit from a weaker U.S. dollar, as many countries in the index rely on exports priced in USD. Recent signals from the Federal Reserve about slowing interest rate hikes or potential rate cuts could lead to dollar depreciation, boosting emerging market equities.
Commodity Strength:
Many countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index are resource-rich, and rising commodity prices due to global infrastructure spending and energy transitions could support their economies.
China Reopening and Recovery:
As the largest weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, China's post-COVID recovery could be a significant tailwind for EEM, supported by stimulus measures and a rebound in domestic demand.
Technical Analysis:
From the chart provided, several technical indicators suggest now may be a good time to initiate a position in EEM:
Support at Regression Channel:
The chart shows a multi-year linear regression channel with price currently testing the lower end of the channel (red zone). This lower boundary acts as strong support, suggesting a potential reversal to the upside.
Fibonacci Support Level:
EEM is holding around a key Fibonacci retracement level, a zone often associated with buying interest. Historically, this level has acted as a reliable support zone.
Oversold Conditions:
Price action appears oversold relative to the broader trend within the regression channel. The recent pullback provides an opportunity to buy near technical support rather than chasing prices higher.
Volume Confirmation:
The volume profile indicates a higher level of activity around the current price range, signifying potential accumulation by institutional investors or long-term buyers.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio:
Initiating a position near the bottom of the regression channel provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Upside potential extends to the mid or upper parts of the channel, while downside risk is limited by nearby support.
Bollinger Band and Mean Reversion:
Although Bollinger Bands are not explicitly visible in this chart, prices appear to be in an extended move toward the lower range of the regression channel, which typically precedes a mean-reversion move higher.
Strategy:
From a fundamental perspective, EEM is attractive due to its valuation discount, expected GDP growth, and macroeconomic tailwinds (e.g., a weaker dollar, commodity strength).
From a technical perspective, the ETF is at a strong confluence of support levels, providing an excellent entry point with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
Investors can consider initiating a position now and scaling into it further if EEM confirms a reversal upward. Setting a stop-loss just below the lower regression channel boundary will help mitigate downside risk.
You said:
I like this but remove the fibonocci entry.
ChatGPT said:
Here’s the revised analysis without mentioning Fibonacci levels:
Fundamental Analysis:
The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) tracks the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which includes stocks from developing economies like China, India, Brazil, and South Korea. These economies often experience higher growth rates than developed markets due to industrialization, increasing consumer spending, and favorable demographic trends. Here are some fundamental reasons to consider buying EEM:
Growth Potential in Emerging Markets:
Emerging markets are expected to grow faster than developed markets, driven by factors like expanding middle-class populations, urbanization, and increasing adoption of technology.
The IMF projects strong GDP growth for countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index over the next few years, which could support corporate earnings growth.
Valuation Discount:
Emerging market equities currently trade at a discount to developed markets, such as the U.S., on a price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) basis. This presents an attractive entry point for long-term investors.
Weakening U.S. Dollar:
Emerging market assets tend to benefit from a weaker U.S. dollar, as many countries in the index rely on exports priced in USD. Recent signals from the Federal Reserve about slowing interest rate hikes or potential rate cuts could lead to dollar depreciation, boosting emerging market equities.
Commodity Strength:
Many countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index are resource-rich, and rising commodity prices due to global infrastructure spending and energy transitions could support their economies.
China Reopening and Recovery:
As the largest weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, China's post-COVID recovery could be a significant tailwind for EEM, supported by stimulus measures and a rebound in domestic demand.
Technical Analysis:
From the chart provided, several technical indicators suggest now may be a good time to initiate a position in EEM:
Support at Regression Channel:
The chart shows a multi-year linear regression channel with price currently testing the lower end of the channel (red zone). This lower boundary acts as strong support, suggesting a potential reversal to the upside.
Oversold Conditions:
Price action appears oversold relative to the broader trend within the regression channel. The recent pullback provides an opportunity to buy near technical support rather than chasing prices higher.
Volume Confirmation:
The volume profile indicates a higher level of activity around the current price range, signifying potential accumulation by institutional investors or long-term buyers.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio:
Initiating a position near the bottom of the regression channel provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Upside potential extends to the mid or upper parts of the channel, while downside risk is limited by nearby support.
Bollinger Band and Mean Reversion:
Although Bollinger Bands are not explicitly visible in this chart, prices appear to be in an extended move toward the lower range of the regression channel, which typically precedes a mean-reversion move higher.
Strategy:
From a fundamental perspective, EEM is attractive due to its valuation discount, expected GDP growth, and macroeconomic tailwinds (e.g., a weaker dollar, commodity strength).
From a technical perspective, the ETF is at a strong confluence of support levels, providing an excellent entry point with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
Investors can consider initiating a position now and scaling into it further if EEM confirms a reversal upward. Setting a stop-loss just below the lower regression channel boundary will help mitigate downside risk.
Entry Price $41.50 - $42.50
Lont Term Price Target $47.00
GLD cup and handle bullish breakout Gld currently in a consolidation phase. Forming a cup and now handle, a breakout gives a price target of 260$ with a stop at the bottom of the handle at 245$ this gives a 3:1 risk reward trade set up. And a new ATH for GLD
GLD cup and handle Gld currently in a consolidation phase. Forming a cup and now handle, a breakout gives a price target of 260$ with a stop at the bottom of the handle at 245$ this gives a 3:1 risk reward trade set up. And a new ATH for GLD
Next target around $62The last few days showed a clear retest of the the upwards channel.
Moneymakers, algo's and the big boys showed that the previous weekly and daily demand levels held very firmly as they didn't even enter the zone, but rather stayed/behaved nicely in the channel.
With Trump and team talking office in about 5 days, we have a very compelling set of rule changes that are going to be implemented shortly (and play out at least over the next 2+ years!) that will benefit all businesses including the small caps, and in anticipation of the this, the truck was backed up and loaded to the brim.
We were lucky enough to participate both in the first zone, and the second zone below that, to load up. Always good to buy in 1/3 increments to keep your powder dry.
The upper test of the $54 area showed that there is heavy selling pressure there, but we have weakened the supply zone substantially as we stayed there for quite a few days.
Expectations are that this move will play out over the next several months, possibly into the summer and ultimately end somewhere around the $62 range as highlighted by the green circle.
There is another supply zone above that, which we've never retested, so that means it will bounce hard off that selling pressure.
Good luck to all, and do your own due diligence.
This post is for entertainment purposes only.
And for me to document my own journey in this trade for my kids to see how it works, then call me out as either a dad than knows what they're doing, or call my bluff.
Update on UNG longUpdating my previous long trade initiated when UNG broke through the 200 DSMA two weeks ago.
At the same time, the 200 DSMA turned upwards after having been in a downtrend for over two years.
Note also the huge increase in volume since the 200 DSMA was breached.
My current target is former tops formed in May/June 2024 in the 21.00 to 22.00 area. (I would close at least 50% of my current position and raise my stop in that case.)
Not great for bulls, but whose trying to short a hole?Lot of gap downs, lot of rallies getting faded.
Bears are cautiously in control. News can change things in an instant.
I do believe we are closer to the end of this correction, but geopolitical issues are starting to come up that may keep things suppressed or sideways.
Biggest risk/reward is aiming for a rally up by EOM. Perhaps when bad news takes a break. We do have an inflation reading release next week, could be nail in the coffin.
Overall, I am starting a bullish position. More likely we see pops a relief gap ups from here.
Maybe/probably wrong, but anyone opening a short position down here is clearly chasing and may find themselves becoming liquidity for overnight moves where all they can do is watch...
SPY ROAD TO THE TOP 2025 I will post this as your road map to the final 5th wave from oct 13 2022 low to top of wave 5 of 3 in the super cycle . the likely date for the final 5th wave is now a window from 2/14 to 3/13 I will talk more about 3/13 soon I am not ready for the public to view this turn date . best of trades Wavetimer
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 1-15 Followup: Rally Into Jan 20-23This video was started to highlight the incredible predictive capabilities of my SPY Cycle Patterns and longer-term Cycle Research.
It seems almost impossible to be able to somewhat accurately predict future price moves - but I'm able to do it with moderate success - sometimes months and years into the future.
What does that mean to you - well, it should mean you want to pay attention to my research/videos and learn how to take advantage of my continued research.
This video highlights why the Doom-sayers are wrong. The markets will continue to trend upward until the 2030-2033 peak. That's when traders need to be prepared for a broad market downtrend.
But, it sure is fun getting emails and announcements from all the people that are now calling for a "great reset" to take place.
It may happen in certain countries, but this is a market of economies - not a single economic market. What happens in some countries does not always happen to all countries.
As the old saying goes - this is a market of stocks, not a stock market.
Get ready - the next 5+ years should be full of incredible opportunities for skilled traders.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
The chart I am posting is The road map for QQQ The chart I am posting is that of the QQQ and what should be the pattern if We are going to see a Final 5th wave to 561 plus or minus 2 . I called for a major turn 11/29 to 12/5 from this we should see a panic or a corrective wave structure I have a grouping of 6 spiral turn from jan 19 to the 25th .I have sold All my longs as we hit price targets for the first leg up and to form the ABC rally .What next possible pattern is abc up for wave 1 or A we should see now a pullback in an abc decline back to 50 % from this we should see wave C up in the form of 12345 a 5 waves rally and break Above the down trend line as Most everyone will then get on board . The MATH projection IF and I say IF the turn of 11/29 to 12/5 was just the top of wave 3 of 5 then we will see the HIGH for 2025 at 561 plus or minus 2 I have dates of FEB 14 and march 13th As MAJOR turns based on the fib cycles and Spirals . You should wait to see conformation . in the pullback before buying longs again . BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER
Could be a false breakout. Be careful here….Right shoulder could form for a lower drop or keep going to help engulf the weekly. Trump in office next week so right now just sit tight and watch the chats gap up may be a stretch so really be careful!
VIX againUVXY is landing in a short term trendline. SPY is heading to a resistance zone. I bought the ETF (no calls this time) I'll keep buying if it gets to the support at 18.30. I think the market is consolidating and we will have ups and downs like crazy. I'll take advantage of it. My first TP at 22, then will see.
VIX putsUVXY is hitting an important resistance level. It is usually rejected from that level. I bought some puts Jan 31, strike 22.
@SPY bulls can take advantage and retest 600 SPY have been under pressure from short sellers for some time now but looking at this channel we could see buyers stock advantage and to reload their position at 575 and with a break through from 590 ,SPY could be on its way to retest the 600 which serves as a previous resistance .
Opening (IRA): ARKK February 21st 49/54 Short Put Vertical... for a .65 credit.
Comments: An additive long delta adjustment here to cut net delta of my position in half ... . It still leans slightly net delta short with a delta/theta ratio of -10.04/6.26, so not quite where I want it at <1.00.
$SPY GAP UP HELD UNDER ELECTION ANCHORAMEX:SPY has gapped up above all major AVWAP points in 2024 and is stuck under elections supply. Follow-through is needed for extended momentum to the .
Opening (IRA): URTY February 21st 41 Covered Call... for a 39.07 debit.
Comments: Adding in at strikes better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. I would prefer using TNA, since it's more liquid and has more expiries available, but already have a position on in TNA where the short call strike is at or above the -75, so don't want to add here.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 39.07/share
Max Profit: 1.93
ROC at Max: 4.94%
50% Max: .97
ROC at 50% Max: 2.47%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out the short call if the setup doesn't hit my take profit.
Opening (IRA): TNA February 21st 34 Covered Call... for a 32.45 debit.
Comments: Adding at strikes better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 32.45/share
Max Profit: 1.55
ROC at Max: 4.78%
50% Max: .78
ROC at 50% Max: 2.39%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max ... .
Opening (IRA): TAN Nov 15th 37 Covered Call... for a 35.89 debit.
Comments: Relatively decent IV here at 42.8%. Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a +25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 35.89
Max Profit: 1.11
ROC at Max: 3.09%
50% Max: .56
ROC at 50% Max: 1.55%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll out short call on test.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-15 : Inside BreakawayToday is going to be a very interesting day.
Mortgage data came in very strong, while CPI data came in moderately weaker. That is setting up a very strong GAP RALLY phase in the markets.
Shorts are going to get SQUEEZED HARD this morning, and I suspect we may see a carry-through rally lasting most of the day.
Be cautious of a pullback after the big GAP opening (higher) this morning.
Gold and Silver are attempting to move higher - which is perfect if the US Dollar weakens moderately. Overall, Gold and Silver are attempting to hedge risk factors into 2025.
Bitcoin will likely run into resistance just below $100k and attempt to fall downward again.
This is a very exciting week because it appears the markets are shaking off the debt/credit/yields concerns and moving back to normal.
Remember, where else will investors place their capital for Growth and Returns - other than the US? As I see it, the US markets are still the 900lb Gorilla in the global markets simply because of the ability of the US economy to rebound and recover much quicker than other foreign economies.
Get some.
BIG SHORT SQUEEZE this morning.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY January 15th, 2025AMEX:SPY January 15th, 2025
15 minutes
As the numbers are below 200 averages in 15 minutes, I will short.
For the fall 595 to 575 we have ascillator divergence, therefore, taking 575.35 as the low, drawing extension for the move 575.5 to 585 to 578.35, we have a first target of 588 and second target of 594 levels
For the fall 597.75 to 575.35 we have 0.618 retracement at 590 - 591 levels.
That is the level I will short.
However, we have 200 averages at 588 levels, therefore the short will give us only $2 profit.
Since the risk to reward is not good, we have to wait for the first 15 minute bar to form to see how the close is located, either near top or near bottom.
As written many times, gaps which are unfilled are strong, therefore if we get the first bar close near top, keeping the low of the bar as stoploss, we have to go long.
The reason is the values become above 200 averages, therby triggering a buy.
Contrarian Sentiment Signal in Gold (GLD)This chart highlights the significance of contrarian sentiment indicators in identifying potential buying and selling opportunities in gold (GLD). The sentiment indicator below the price chart oscillates between -100 (extreme pessimism) and 100 (extreme optimism). Historically, extreme pessimism sentiment levels have marked pivotal turning points in gold's price action.
Key Observations:
Contrarian Buy Signals (Extreme Pessimism):
Around 2015, 2018, and 2019, extreme pessimism (-100 sentiment) coincided with major bottoms in GLD prices. These were ideal long-term buying opportunities as gold subsequently rallied significantly.This behavior underscores the value of using sentiment as a contrarian tool, where extreme fear often leads to mean reversion or trend reversals to the upside.
Potential Exit Points (Extreme Optimism):
This chart highlights key potential exit points for gold (GLD) traders and investors, marked by the yellow arrows. These exit points align with significant price peaks where momentum began to stall, often signaling the end of strong bullish trends. These signals are based on price action and historical resistance levels, rather than sentiment extremes, offering an actionable approach for managing profits during rallies.
Current Sentiment and Price Action:
As of now, gold sentiment is at a high level (71), suggesting optimism but not yet at the extreme threshold of 100. The current price action is near the recent highs, and traders should monitor sentiment closely. A surge toward 100 could signal a potential top, while a decline in sentiment could reset conditions for another leg higher.
For Bulls:
If gold experiences a short-term pullback and sentiment drops significantly (below 0 or even -100), consider entering long positions with a focus on support levels near $200 or $180.
Use trailing stops to protect gains if gold continues to rally without reaching extreme optimism.
For Bears:
If sentiment surges toward 100, consider taking profits or opening short positions with tight risk management.Watch for bearish divergences between price and sentiment to confirm potential tops.
Market Overview: More Real Life Patterns!!!I cover the Argentina banking sector and how a lot of stocks are covering the same patterns. I also discussed the complex pullback pattern that has been so prevalent in this market. We can see them in stocks like NASDAQ:LULU NYSE:WES NASDAQ:UAL and the short setup today, $S.
There is also quite a few long setups. One that I like in particular is $ENB.
The AMEX:SPY is in a steady range with a slight bearish bias.
If you're short stocks, make sure you are reducing risk and taking your 1:1!
Good luck and Good Trading!
