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Interesting trend line confluence on QQQ: Bull CaseNobody knows what is going to happen, but this confluence of trend lines is at least interesting.
There is a short term uptrend since the August low that converged pretty perfectly with a longer term trend line that seems to have had some weight as resistance since summer of 2023. It has been broken at times, but price has always come back in and has spent a lot of time respecting it.
This month we broke above it again and then on Friday we opened below both lines, only to rally back up and close above them.
There is also a resistance line that along with the short term support line can be seen as a rising wedge that was broken on December 4th. This latest drop took us down through the front of that wedge but on Friday we closed back above it.
Now the market of course does not have to follow any of these lines, but I thought the confluence was interesting. Could this all just be a retest of the wedge we just broke out of to the upside? Could the longer term resistance line finally be flipping to support? In that case, we could be at the beginning of a much bigger upside move.
To be clear, I do also see credible downside possibilities, but there is some confluence and some strength worth noting here.
Stepping back and looking at the big pictureOverview of the SPY price expansionary and retracement periods.
SPY On The Rise! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for SPY is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 590.89
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 598.49
My Stop Loss - 586.83
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
IWM 4h Testing 8/5 Pivot VWAP, Forming Potential Falling Wedge.IWM 4h Testing 8/5 Pivot VWAP, Forming Potential Falling Wedge. Also a volume shelf setup. LONG
$SPY correction incoming? Back below $550AMEX:SPY is putting in a short term top here.
All of the signs are there if you know what to look at. For example, NASDAQ:TLT up 2% today. AMEX:SPY sold off throughout the day. Crypto selling off. Volatility starting to react at the bottom of the range. Dollar continuing to rise.
The chart also is failing at resistance.
I could see one more attempt at a move higher, and if we fail at $602 or lower and fall back below $597, it'll be extremely bearish and the confidence in this move playing out strengthens.
I think we'll see $527-531 over the next couple of weeks. Playing the move through CBOE:UVXY calls.
$USO crash before the bull market starts?I originally thought that we'd see a move higher off the bounce from $69, however the chart has now morphed and looks more bearish than it did over the summer.
If we break the trend line to the downside, then I think it's likely that we can see a crash to the $40 region before the bull market in oil really starts.
Let's see how it plays out over the coming months.
IWM | Bullish AMEX:IWM
Resistance Levels:
There is a significant resistance level at around 224.02. The price needs to close above this level to confirm a breakout.
Another resistance level is at approximately 233.64.
Support Levels:
The immediate support level is the trendline, which has been acting as a resistance until now. This trendline is likely to act as a support if the breakout is confirmed.
A secondary support level can be seen at around 227.13.
Potential Targets:
If the price closes above 224.02, it signifies a breakout from the current price channel.
The first target after the breakout would be around 233.64.
The second target, based on the price projection, would be approximately 244.46.
Indicators:
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently around 63.34, which is above the neutral 50 level but not yet in the overbought territory. This suggests there is still room for upward movement.
The price action shows higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish trend.
Volume: The volume seems consistent, supporting the upward price movement. Higher volume on a breakout above 224.02 would confirm the bullish sentiment.
Conclusion:
If IWM closes green today above 224.02, it indicates a breakout from the current price channel, suggesting a potential further upside. The first target would be around 233.64, followed by 244.46. This position could be highly profitable for call options and futures contracts if the breakout is confirmed and sustained.
SMH | SHORTNASDAQ:SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) Weekly Analysis:
Current Price Action:
SMH is trading at $218.43, down 9.10% for the week.
Price has breached the upward trendline support, indicating potential further downside.
Key Levels:
Bearish Line: $214.18
Target Price 1: $199.15
Target Price 2: $172.35
Target Price 3: $155.65
Target Price 4: $136.10
Support Zones:
Immediate support is expected around $199.15.
Further support levels are $172.35, $155.65, and $136.10.
Resistance Levels:
Resistance is at the broken trendline near $240, followed by the recent high around $300.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
RSI is at 53.98, trending downwards, suggesting weakening momentum.
Volume:
Volume is significant at 75.462M, indicating strong selling pressure.
Conclusion:
SMH's breakdown below key support levels and significant bearish momentum suggest further downside potential. Watch for reactions around $199.15 and $172.35 for potential entry points or further declines.
Why not?See the pattern? SPY closed within the ascending channel. We might see a green weekly candle next week.
IBIT Bitcoin Trust ETF Technical Analysis Trade This chart highlights a parabolic uptrend in IBIT, with price making a significant move from consolidation to new highs. The chart includes pivot levels (S1, R1, R2), dark pool levels, moving averages (8 EMA and 21 EMA), and volume, all of which help in understanding the current price action and predicting potential moves.
Key Observations:
1. Trend Structure:
The chart shows a strong uptrend supported by the 8 EMA and 21 EMA.
A breakout above the 61.99 resistance (R1) occurred recently, but price has since pulled back slightly, consolidating near 56.10, which aligns with a dark pool level.
2. Support and Resistance:
Resistance Levels:
61.99 (R1): The key breakout level, which price is currently retesting as resistance.
68.77 (R2): The next significant resistance and a long-term target for bulls.
Support Levels:
56.10: A dark pool level and immediate support zone.
53.00: Key short-term support near the 21 EMA.
47.30 (S1): A deeper support level in case of a larger pullback.
3. Volume Analysis:
A high volume breakout occurred recently, suggesting strong interest from institutions or retail traders.
However, recent volume bars are slightly lower, indicating that the bullish momentum is consolidating. This could lead to either a continuation higher or a pullback to support.
4. Moving Averages:
The 8 EMA is currently acting as immediate dynamic support, while the 21 EMA (~53.00) provides a secondary layer of support.
As long as the price remains above these moving averages, the uptrend remains intact.
Trade Setup:
Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation
Trigger: A breakout above 61.99 (R1) on high volume would confirm bullish continuation.
Profit Targets:
68.77 (R2): The next major resistance level.
70-75: A potential extension zone in a strong parabolic move.
Stop-Loss: Below 56.10, as a break below this level would signal a loss of bullish momentum.
Scenario 2: Pullback to Support
Trigger: If price fails to break above 61.99 and pulls back, look for buying opportunities near:
56.10 (dark pool level): Immediate support.
53.00 (21 EMA): A stronger support level for a bounce.
Profit Targets:
61.99: Retest of the breakout level.
68.77 (R2): Higher target if the trend resumes.
Stop-Loss: Below 52, as this would indicate a breakdown below the key EMAs.
Scenario 3: Bearish Breakdown
Trigger: A strong close below 53.00 with high volume would signal bearish momentum.
Profit Targets:
47.30 (S1): First major pivot support.
41.00-43.00: A retest of previous consolidation levels.
Stop-Loss: Above 56.10, as a reclaim of this level would invalidate the bearish thesis.
Final Thoughts:
Short-Term Outlook: Consolidation near 56.10 suggests the potential for either a breakout above 61.99 or a pullback to key support zones.
Long-Term Outlook: The parabolic nature of the trend suggests strong bullish sentiment, with deeper pullbacks offering opportunities to re-enter the trend.
Watch volume closely to confirm either a breakout or a breakdown, as institutional activity (dark pool levels) will likely play a significant role.
QQQ Trade AnalysisThis chart represents the daily timeframe for QQQ, showcasing a mix of technical indicators like pivot points (S1, S2, R1, etc.), exponential moving averages (EMAs), trendlines, dark pool levels, and volume. The chart indicates a recent pullback in a long-term uptrend, with price sitting near a key support zone.
Key Observations:
1. Trend Analysis:
Long-Term Trend:
The green ascending trendline suggests a consistent long-term bullish trend.
The price is still well above this trendline, indicating the broader trend remains intact.
Recent Pullback:
Price recently tested the R2 pivot (534.52), indicating an overbought condition, and has since pulled back.
It is now consolidating near the S1 pivot (490.80) and the 21 EMA, which are critical short-term support levels.
2. Support and Resistance:
Resistance Levels:
R1 (522.13) and R2 (534.52) are the immediate resistance zones. Price rejection at these levels confirms sellers’ presence.
R3 (553.45) is the long-term target if the bullish trend resumes.
Support Levels:
S1 (490.80): Current support level and pivot zone.
S2 (471.87): A deeper support zone near the green trendline, likely to act as a strong barrier.
Dark Pool Levels:
508.70 (recent activity) may serve as minor resistance.
496.39 and 480.70 indicate institutional interest zones that could provide support.
3. Volume Analysis:
Recent volume spike on the pullback indicates increased participation, potentially signaling a shift in momentum.
Red candles with high volume often signal distribution, but if price stabilizes near support, this could indicate accumulation by institutions.
4. Moving Averages:
Price has fallen below the 8 EMA, signaling short-term bearish momentum.
However, the 21 EMA near 490.80 acts as a critical level. A rebound from this area could indicate a resumption of the uptrend.
Trade Setup:
Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal from S1 (490.80)
Trigger: A bounce off the S1 pivot and reclaim of the 8 EMA (~508.70) would signal a bullish continuation.
Profit Targets:
508.70: Dark pool resistance and 8 EMA level.
522.13 (R1): Swing high and key resistance zone.
534.52 (R2): Longer-term resistance.
Stop-Loss: Below 486, as a break below this level would invalidate the bullish thesis.
Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Below S1 (490.80)
Trigger: A strong close below the S1 pivot with increasing volume would confirm bearish momentum.
Profit Targets:
480.70: Dark pool support.
471.87 (S2): Pivot support and intersection with the green trendline.
459.48 (S3): Deeper downside target.
Stop-Loss: Above 500, as this would indicate a reversal back above key support.
Scenario 3: Long-Term Reversal Near Trendline Support
If price continues lower, the green trendline near 471.87 offers a high-probability buying opportunity, especially if accompanied by lower volume on the decline.
Final Thoughts:
Short-Term Outlook: Consolidation near S1 (490.80) requires confirmation of direction. A breakout above the 8 EMA would favor bulls, while a breakdown below S1 opens the door for further downside.
Long-Term Outlook: The green trendline and dark pool levels suggest strong institutional support on deeper pullbacks, keeping the broader bullish trend intact.
S&P 500 Reached The Top - Correction UnderwayThe S&P 500 looks to have reached a significant top - being rejected from the 1:1 Fibonacci extension on the Weekly Timeframe.
With other confluence like the rising wedge, high weekly RSI levels, and a decreasing momentum on the MACD, all things point downwards for the stock market in 2025.
The next target would be the blue zone where a potential chance for reversal could occur.
A top in the S&P 500 could also signal tops forming on major stocks like NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:TSLA , etc. so keep a lookout.
SPY Technical Analysis PredictionThis chart is a daily timeframe for SPY (S&P 500 ETF), displaying multiple indicators such as pivot points, dark pool levels, trendlines, moving averages, and volume. The current market structure suggests a potential trend transition phase, with price currently consolidating near critical support levels.
Key Observations:
1. Trend Structure:
The long-term uptrend is still intact, supported by the green ascending trendline originating from prior lows.
The recent pullback breached the 8 EMA and 21 EMA, which implies short-term bearish momentum. However, price is consolidating near the S1 pivot level (579.18), suggesting possible support.
Higher Highs (HH) were achieved earlier in the trend, but the failure to maintain levels near the R1 pivot (614.64) indicates resistance and profit-taking.
2. Support and Resistance:
Resistance Zones:
600-604: A psychological resistance level and the approximate region of the 8 EMA.
609.07: The previous swing high and a critical level for a bullish continuation.
R1 (614.64): A strong pivot resistance level.
Support Zones:
Immediate support at S1 (579.18), which aligns with current consolidation.
Lower supports are seen at S2 (555.80), S3 (543.72), and the ascending green trendline (~524).
Dark pool levels between 513.20 - 522.91 represent critical institutional zones, which may act as strong support.
3. Volume Profile:
Significant volume spike on the most recent red candle indicates institutional activity.
If price remains above key supports (S1, S2), this could suggest accumulation. A breakdown below S1 would imply further distribution and downside.
4. Dark Pool Levels:
Dark pool prints at 522.91, 518.92, and 513.20 mark critical price levels for institutional interest. A break into these levels would indicate bearish momentum but could offer significant buying opportunities near those zones.
Trade Setup:
Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal from S1 (579.18)
Trigger: A strong bounce off S1 with price reclaiming the 8 EMA (currently near 600) would confirm bullish momentum.
Profit Targets:
595-600: The immediate resistance zone and EMA alignment.
609.07: The swing high from earlier in December.
614.64 (R1): A longer-term target at the pivot resistance.
Stop-Loss: Below 575, as this invalidates the bullish setup.
Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Below S1 (579.18)
Trigger: A break below S1 with high volume and price failing to reclaim the 8 EMA would confirm bearish continuation.
Profit Targets:
565.16: The prior swing low and intermediate support.
555.80 (S2): A strong pivot support level.
543.72 (S3): A deeper downside target.
Stop-Loss: Above 595, as it would indicate a reversal back above resistance.
Scenario 3: Long-Term Reversal Near Dark Pool Levels
If price falls into the dark pool zones (522.91-513.20), this could offer significant long-term buying opportunities, especially near the ascending green trendline (~524).
Final Thoughts:
Short-Term Outlook: Consolidation near S1 requires close monitoring for either a bullish reversal or a bearish breakdown. Volume and price action at the EMAs and pivot levels will be crucial indicators.
Long-Term Outlook: The green trendline and dark pool levels represent strong support zones, offering potential for accumulation if prices drop further.
Thank You, TradingView Community!I want to take a moment to express my heartfelt gratitude to everyone in this incredible community. The opportunity to share my Technical Analysis (TA) and connect with so many of you has been an amazing journey.
I’m truly humbled by the kindness and appreciation I’ve received. Many of you who have achieved significant wins have even sent me thoughtful gifts as a token of thanks, while others who are still on the path to recovery have reached out to share their gratitude as well. Your support means more to me than words can express and motivates me to keep contributing and improving in the coming year.
Whether you’re celebrating victories or working toward a brighter trading future, I’m here to support you every step of the way. Let’s make 2025 a year filled with growth, learning, and success!
Thank you for being part of this journey and for allowing me to share my passion with you.
Cheers to a bright future ahead!
See you next year!
Spy Whats Next NowWell everyone I've been calling for a 3% drop for the past 10 days and caught it lol!!!! I hope all of you that followed me crushed again and made money!!! Update to the New Narrative Trend Which the stock was Ticker QUBT I entered at $6.50 exited at $23 that I posted this week Resulting in a 4x stock move in 4 days causing some of my options plays to 10-15x insane in 2 days lol!! So What's next for Spy I Believe there will be a dead cat bounce resulting in a price to hit a target of 595-600 this year!!! I believe QQQ SPY both topped out for this year!!! So I Will be investing in The number 1 stock for 2025 resulting in a safe 10x trade by March content out now Good Luck Traders!!!
SPY will drop ... until Christmas, Part 2In my last chart I didn't account for the market trading sideways before heading downward so I have decided to do another chart.
There is a FED meeting this week. I suspect on the day of the announcement on Wednesday, Dec 18, the SPY will be more volatile like it has been on the last few announcements from the FED. Then on Thursday and Friday following the announcement, the SPY will continue to go lower (regardless of what the Fed states) stopping before Christmas. I trade based on what the charts indicate not on current events. The charts will often account for future events.
If you look at the weekly charts, it is also indicating a downward trend.I will try to post a weekly chart to this idea so you can see what I am talking about.
I have marked where I think the SPY will drop to on the chart (around 584)
This is just a short term downward trend. I believe on Thursday and Friday, the SPY will drop about 9 points each day and on Monday and Tuesday it will drop a little or trade sideways. After Christmas, I believe the SPY will go back up. But I will draw another chart showing what I believe will happen after Christmas.
If you look at the previous months, after an upward trend of about 10 to 14 days, the market retraced for a few more days. The SPY could retrace to any point on the Fibonacci numbers. But I just believe it will drop for 3-4 days (like it did in the previous months) to a 100% drop before continuing it's climb upward.
I am using the Heikin Ashi Candlesticks as I find you can see a definite directional pattern with them on the chart itself. Typically, I will just trade with the dominant trend and I will wait for 2 green Heikin Ashi Candlesticks before I enter. But this time I am showing the brief retracement that will happen before Christmas. I will probably enter this short trade briefly to make a little money.
Happy trading everyone!
$50 by Nov 5
Appears we've had an accelerated move to the low $40's already. Was expecting this by x-mas.
Now expecting a move to $50 by election day. There is some uncertainty who will win, but a push to the 88.6% fib is highly probable.
Depending on who wins, we will see a push to between $54-62 range, or a temporary retrace.
Feds have cleared the way for more rate cuts. Mostly likely another .25 before election day, just so they look good, but not "influencing" the market/election in any way, of course.
SpyIts looking like 566 will come ..
I talked about this sell on Dow,NYA and Iwm in my spy post (See link).. its happening.. once QQQ breaks below 514 spy will target 575 20sma and it may dead cat bounce but the full target is 566... All you have to do is watch QQQ , once 514 goes, its Good night.. I wont go into the technicals because you can go over my previous post on Spy and QQQ and see every thing is playing... If qqq doesnt break 514 then no sell.
And for those wondering about a christmas rally , qqq went from 498 to 540 in the first 2 weeks of Dec. U got your rally!
Doubt Me If You Want, But My Strategy Speaks for Itself!NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY
Do you see how my Williams CB is one of the best strategies out there for predicting markets short & long term moves? How coupled with my H5 trading strategy it gives me the best chances to beat these crazy markets.
Two weeks ago we were at the top and called for a no more than 3% market pullback. I was wrong and right at the same time. We got a pullback but it wasn't what I anticipated but who anticipated the FED nuking the markets yesterday? Nobody but the FED.
I show you this so you understand when we get to the barrier we don't know what it's going to be that pulls the market back or causes us to consolidate and peel off the red barrier. BUT, we need to understand where we are at and that running into the barrier is not the time to be adding to trades or exploring new ones. It's the time to take profits, consolidate, and maybe hedge a little.
I'm not putting this out to be applauded or to act like I'm some type of Oracle. I simply want to show all my friends who have decided to stick it out with me the last few days when others chose to leave that you can entrust in my strategies and I will teach you everything I know so you can beat the markets on a consistent basis too!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : Big Rally Closing Out 2024Over the course of the past 6+ months, I've been sharing research and content to try to help traders all over the world learn to profit by making better decisions.
Some of the comments I've received have been very positive. But some of the comments I get are negative and some people have explained how they continue to lose money trading.
In my mind, if you are gambling with your trading account - you will likely lose money.
If you are actually trading (trying to book profits ASAP) and grow your account efficiently, you can make consistent money trading small amounts.
In order to try to illustrate this example of trading, I created a $1000 trading account and limited myself to only trading $333 (MAX) per day.
Here are the rules I set for myself...
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Trading Plan
- Start with $1000 in capital
- Break that capital into 1/3 Daily limits
- Trade no more than 2-4 times a day
- Try to target 1-2 short term-trades and 1-2 intermediate-term trades each day
- Attempt to keep my losses limited (depending on market volatility)
- If I lose more than $300, I will stop trading and reevaluate what I’m doing right/wrong
The Daily Average Goal is 15-35% or more over a 30-day period of time.
I will try to execute the trades early in the morning and share the trades with Ment.com members.
I will attempt to pull the short-term trades off as early as possible (trying to lock in gains).
I will attempt to let the intermediate-term trades run a bit longer (possibly more than 1-2 days) in an effort to catch bigger price swings.
I will not attempt to chase market trends unless I see a very clear A-B-C type of price pattern.
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After just five days of trading, my account is up over $45% and I've never risked more than $250 - $300 per day trading Options.
Anyone can do this - you just need the right tools and guidance.
You can DOUBLE your $1000 trading account every 20 to 30 days if you are diligent, consistent, and really learn to trade (not Gamble).
What is it going to take for you to learn how to trade efficiently?
I'm trying to show you HOW to do it and HOW to learn the skills to improve your life.
Get some.
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QQQ Bearish Engulfing Candle on Weekly TimeframeAccording to our models QQQ will keep correcting for another 3-4 Weeks and approximate correction would be 8%
Entry Short: 524
Exit Short: ~ 480
All the best.
Marketpanda
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