Investment Analysis of a Long Gold/Dollar Trade: Entry and Exit Analysis of the Buying Position on Gold Against the Dollar:
Entry and Exit Points:
- Entry Price: 3325
- Targets:
- TP1: 3350
- TP2: 3370
- TP3: 3400
- Stop Loss (SL): 3270
Technical Analysis:
1. Trend Lines:
- Uptrend Line (Green): Indicates the general upward trend of the market, enhancing the chances of success for the trade.
- Downtrend Line (Black): Represents the resistance that the price may encounter. If this line is broken, there could be additional upward momentum.
2. Support and Resistance:
- Supports (Green): Provide a protective level for the trade, where the price can bounce back.
- Resistances (Red): Represent obstacles that need to be overcome to reach the specified targets.
Trading Strategy:
- Entry: Made at 3325, which is close to the support level, providing a good opportunity for price rebound.
- Stop Loss: Adhering to a stop loss at 3270 is necessary to minimize risks in case of market reversal.
- Targets:
- TP1: A near level that could be easily reached if the upward trend continues.
- TP2 and TP3: Higher levels requiring a breakout of resistances and a strong upward momentum.
Recommendations:
- Monitoring: Keep an eye on price movement around trend lines and resistances.
- Financial Management: Stick to the stop loss and target plan to achieve the best possible returns while minimizing risks.
The trade appears positive under current conditions and relies on the continuation of the upward trend and the breaking of specified resistances.
Futures market
XAUUSD BUYING TARGET (XAU/USD) 4H Technical Analysis – July 10, 2025
Gold is currently trading around $3,324.45, showing minor bullish movement. The chart highlights a key support zone between $3,100 and $3,200, marked in green. Price has tested this zone multiple times in the past, confirming it as a strong demand area.
The analysis suggests a possible drop towards the support zone before bouncing upward. If the price respects this support again, we could see a strong bullish move targeting the resistance level at $3,500, which has been tested previously and acts as a major supply zone.
Key Levels:
Support Zone: $3,100 – $3,200
Current Price: $3,324.45
Target / Resistance: $3,500
Outlook:
Wait for a retracement to the support zone. A bullish reversal from there could offer a long entry opportunity with a target near $3,500.
Am I looking for longs on XAUUSD?Hello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair .
💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
XAUUSD Near Channel Resistance as Price Rebounds Toward 3,340Gold climbed toward $3,320 per troy ounce as trade tensions and Fed uncertainty boosted safe-haven demand. A weaker dollar supported gains after President Trump escalated tariff threats, this time targeting Brazil, deepening concerns about global trade disruptions. Meanwhile, the Fed's June meeting minutes revealed a divided stance on rate cuts as some officials favored easing as early as July, while others saw no need for cuts this year.
XAUUSD is trading near the top of a descending channel, hovering around 3,322 after rebounding off support at 3,280, indicating a possible challenge of the channel's resistance near 3340.
If XAUUSD breaks above 3,340, the move could trigger further upside toward the next resistance at 3,360.
Conversely, a rejection from current levels and a drop below 3,280 may see the price slide back toward the lower support at 3,250.
By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness
Sell GC based on 15M bearish unicorn breakerGC swept previous day high, 4h high during London open. It reversed sharply making 15M bearish change in state of delivery (CISD) and moving through 15M breaker and forming 15M FVG. Nice ICT unicorn breaker!
I have my sell limit placed at the low of 15m FVG. Will be targeting RR 1:2.
XAUUSD Idea: 4H Trendline First Breakout - Liquidity PlayFOREXCOM:XAUUSD
🔍 Analysis Overview:
Price has just broken above a 4H descending trendline for the first time. However, I remain cautious due to the following key observations:
📌 NOTES:
The broader market sentiment is still bearish due to recent tariff-related news, which often fuels risk-off behavior.
Historically, the first breakout of a strong trendline often fails, trapping early buyers.
This breakout is likely attracting buy-side liquidity, giving institutions an opportunity to hunt stops.
My observation shows buying interest started around the 3308–3313 range, suggesting smart money accumulation and a possible trap.
📉 I'm watching for a fake breakout and potential reversal targeting the liquidity zones marked below around 3307 and possibly lower.
The liquidity sweep below equal lows could offer a better risk-reward setup.
💡 Conclusion:
If price fails to hold above this breakout and shows signs of rejection, I will be anticipating a return towards the previous demand zone for a liquidity grab.
#XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #SmartMoneyConcepts #LiquidityGrab #ForexTrading #TrendlineBreak #MarketPsychology #TradingSetup #SMC #PriceAction
7.10 Gold Analysis7.10 Gold Analysis
I. Fundamentals
(1). Escalating trade frictions boost safe-haven demand:
On July 9, the Trump administration imposed tariffs (20%-30%) on six countries including the Philippines and Brunei, and announced a 50% tariff on copper imports from August 1, sparking concerns about the global supply chain.
The EU is accelerating negotiations with the US (aiming to reach an agreement before August 1), but differences in automobile tariff quotas remain, and policy repetition continues to amplify market uncertainty.
Impact: Safe-haven funds flow into gold, and gold prices rebounded rapidly from the previous day's low of $3,282 to above $3,320.
(2) Fed policy differences suppress expectations of rate cuts:
The minutes of the June meeting showed that the Fed was divided into three factions: the mainstream supported rate cuts this year but excluded July; the hawks tended to stay put; and the doves advocated immediate action.
Trump pressured for rate cuts (saying that the interest rate was 3 percentage points too high), but strong employment data (June non-farm payrolls) made the Fed cautious, and the market expected the first rate cut in September to be the most likely.
Impact: The US dollar index remained stable near 97.4, limiting the upside of gold prices; the decline in US Treasury yields (10-year to 4.34%) provided some support
2. Technical patterns and key positions
Daily structure
Core resistance: 3330 (5-day/10-day/60-day moving averages densely intersecting area, short-term long-short watershed)
Core support: 3300 (May-June rising trend line support, long defense line)
K-line signal: Wednesday closed with a lower shadow positive line, fell to 3283 and then rebounded to regain 3300, confirming short-term stabilization, but it needs to break through 3330 to open up upside space.
Short-term momentum
Break through the 3296-3282 oscillation range, reaching a high of 3317, and continue the upward trend in the early trading, showing that the bulls are accumulating strength.
If it stabilizes above 3300, it is expected to continue the rebound and test 3330.
3. Long and short logic sorting
Bullish basis:
1. Technical repair completed: After the sharp drop on Wednesday, it quickly fell and rebounded, closing with a positive line to repair part of the decline, and the short-selling potential weakened.
2. Support effectiveness: The 3300 trend line support has been tested for two consecutive trading days (3282 on Tuesday and 3282 on Wednesday), forming a double bottom prototype.
3. Momentum continuation: The rise continued in the early trading, and breaking through the overnight high of 3317 can strengthen the confidence of bulls.
Bearish risk:
1. 3330 strong pressure has not been broken: the triple moving average pressure (5/10/60 days) needs to be broken through with large volume, otherwise it is easy to trigger a sell-off.
2. US dollar pressure: The high level of the US dollar limits the upward space of gold prices.
4. Specific operation strategy
Core idea: Buy on dips, short on key resistance areas
1. Long strategy:
Entry position: Buy after retracement to 3300-3305 (trend line support + neckline of the previous day)
Target: 3320→3330 (lightening area), break through 3330 to see 3345-3350
Stop loss: below 3295
2. Short strategy:
Trigger condition: The first touch of 3330 is under obvious pressure (long upper shadow/1-hour stagflation)
Target: 3315→3305
Stop loss: above 3335 (stop loss when breaking through the moving average concentration area)
3. Breakthrough follow-up strategy:
If the volume breaks through 3330, chase after 3320-3325, target 3345-3350
If 3300 is lost, short at 3305, target 3285-3282
Key reminder:
Focus on the attack and defense of 3300 support and 3330 resistance in the Asian and European sessions, and operate with a light position before the US data.
3345-3350 is a strong resistance area, and long positions can be actively reduced in this area.
V. Risk events
Waiting for the release of US unemployment data: If the data is lower than expected (showing strong employment), it may suppress the expectation of interest rate cuts and be bearish for gold.
Speech by Fed officials: Pay attention to whether the signal of "opposition to July rate cuts" is released (the minutes of the meeting show that most officials tend to wait and see).
Thank you for your attention, and I hope my analysis can help you.
XAUUSD on Falling channel H4 Timeframe Analysis
Gold is currently holding Rangebound 3330-3290 structural piviot points
along with falling wedge pattern.
What's possible scanarios we have?
(PREFERRED )
▪️if the H4-H1 candle remains below 3330-3335 then keep sell at every high and set targets at 3307 then 3290.
Additional TIP:
Above 3335 I will wait till 3345 for resell if we got confirmation( H4 closed below).
All the entries should be taken if all the rules are applied
#XAUUSD
Gold H4 | Rising into a swing-high resistanceGold (XAU/USD) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 3,336.84 which is a swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 3,370.00 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 3,289.33 which is a swing-low support.
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XAU/USD (Gold) chart EMA-based structureXAU/USD (Gold) chart EMA-based structure :
Trend Overview:
* **Short-term bias is bullish**, as price has broken above recent structure and is currently forming higher highs and higher lows.
* Price is **above the 7, 21, and 50 EMAs**, which are aligned bullishly and sloping upward — confirming upward momentum.
Key Levels:
Current Price:** \~\$3,319
* Trading just below **a strong resistance zone** (highlighted in green), indicating a potential challenge ahead for bulls.
Resistance Zone: \~\$3,323–\$3,336
* This area has previously acted as a **supply zone**, where price was rejected.
* Bulls need to break and hold above this level for continued upside toward **\$3,340+**.
Support 1 (S1):** \~\$3,314–\$3,310
* A recent breakout zone; if price retraces, this could be **retested as support**.
* If held, it may offer a **bullish continuation** setup.
Support 2 (S2):** \~\$3,302
* If S1 breaks, price may fall further to this **deeper demand zone**.
* A loss of this level would likely **shift short-term bias bearish** and target lower lows.
Scenarios
Bullish Path:
* Price holds S1 → pushes up → breaks resistance (\~3,323–3,336)
* Target: **\$3,340+**, then possibly \$3,350+ if momentum continues
Bearish Path:
* Price breaks below S1 and EMA support → retests S2 (\~3,302)
* If S2 fails, potential drop to **\$3,284–\$3,276 zone** (previous weak low zone)
Conclusion:
* **Bulls in control** short term as long as price stays above **EMA cluster (\~3,310–3,306)**
* A clean break above **\$3,336** confirms bullish continuation
* Break below **\$3,302** shifts bias bearish
XAUUSD Loses Short-Term Support – Deeper Decline May FollowAt the current moment, gold (XAUUSD) has made a significant breakout, surpassing the key resistance zone at 3,326 USD and is now trading around 3,328.94 USD. This breakout confirms that the short-term bullish trend remains strong.
1. Short-Term Trend: Bullish Momentum Expands
After holding the key support zone around 3,311 – 3,315 USD (aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement), XAUUSD bounced back and broke above the previous high at 3,326 USD. The current uptrend is confirmed by higher lows and a clear breakout candle from the recent consolidation.
2. Updated Support and Resistance Zones:
Immediate Support: 3,318 – 3,320 USD, near the rising yellow trendline and breakout retest zone.
Next Resistance Target: No clear barrier on the 15-min chart, but psychological levels and Fibonacci extensions suggest 3,332 – 3,335 USD could act as the next upside targets.
3. Price Action Highlights:
The breakout candle closed strongly above the 3.618 Fibonacci extension level (3,326.26 USD), showing solid buying pressure.
A bullish signal ("B") from LuxAlgo was triggered near the minor pullback at 3,318 USD, adding further confirmation.
4. Key Technical Signals:
Price has broken out of the purple rectangle consolidation zone, expanding its trading range.
The 0.618 Fibonacci level at 3,311.78 USD continues to act as firm support.
The ascending yellow trendline remains intact, providing dynamic support to the bullish trend.
5. Suggested Trading Strategy:
Buy on Pullback: Consider long positions around 3,318 – 3,320 USD if price retests this zone with bullish confirmation.
Breakout Continuation Buy: A firm close above 3,330 USD with high volume could signal a move toward 3,335 – 3,340 USD.
If price falls below 3,315 USD and closes weakly, the bullish momentum may begin to fade.
XAUUSD is in an extended bullish phase after breaching the 3,326 USD resistance. As long as price holds above the 3,318 – 3,320 USD zone, there is room for the uptrend to continue.
Do you think gold will break above 3,330 USD? Drop your thoughts in the comments and let’s discuss trading strategies together!
Gold Short Term OutlookGold continues its short-term recovery after bouncing from the Support Zone and reclaiming the $3,300 level. Price is now testing the $3,328 resistance zone, with both the 50MA and 200MA converging just below price.
A confirmed break and hold above $3,328 would open the door to higher resistance levels. However, failure to clear this zone could lead to a retest of the Support Zone. If that fails to hold, a deeper retracement toward the HTF Support Zone may follow.
📌 Key Levels to Watch
Resistance:
‣ $3,328
‣ $3,341
‣ $3,356
‣ $3,383
Support:
‣ $3,313
‣ $3,300
‣ $3,267
‣ $3,241
🔎 Fundamental Focus
All eyes on U.S. unemployment claims today
Expect volatility around the release – stay sharp.
IBEX 35: Summer Rally or Final Top?By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Consolidation and Vertigo at Peak Levels
In 2025, the IBEX 35 has staged a moderate yet consistent rally, reaching levels not seen since 2015, recently hitting 14,373 points. After a strong start to the year, fueled by the stabilization of interest rates in the eurozone and a recovery in the banking sector, the index has been consolidating within a sideways-upward channel. This consolidation phase has acted as a pause after the significant gains accumulated since October 2023, when the index hovered near the 9,000-point mark. However, the current high zone represents a technically demanding barrier. If broken, it could pave the way for one final upward move before a potential correction.
Last Push Before the Turn
Fundamental Analysis
The performance of the IBEX 35 in 2025 has been mainly supported by solid corporate earnings, particularly within the financial sector, which continues to benefit from the elevated interest rate environment. Banks have reported robust interest margins, playing a key role in driving the index higher. Additionally, defensive stocks like Iberdrola, Endesa, and Naturgy have provided stability amid persistent macroeconomic uncertainty.
However, growth forecasts for the Spanish economy are beginning to be revised downward, and persistent core inflation casts doubt on the ECB's ability to cut rates swiftly. Thus, although the base scenario still favors a continued recovery, risk factors are starting to build, which could impact the index’s trajectory in the second half of the year.
Furthermore, regulatory changes in regions such as Catalonia concerning the housing sector are affecting rental companies and platforms like Airbnb in cities like Barcelona. Tensions between the Ministry of Transport and construction companies are also mounting over the planned reversal of concession contracts for 11 first-generation motorways, spanning nearly 1,000 kilometers—a dispute that could end up in court. Publicly traded firms involved include Abertis, Acciona, ACS, Ferrovial, and FCC.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, the IBEX 35 is trading within a sideways-upward channel that has served as a consolidation phase since May, following a strong rally that began in late 2023. The upper resistance of this channel is around 14,373 points, while the lower boundary extends to 13,615 points, acting as the main support level. As long as the index remains above this threshold, a breakout to the upside remains plausible.
Currently, the point of control is showing bearish delta pressure just above, suggesting that the July 7th upward move is holding above the 13,930-point area. This level coincides with the 50-day moving average, which indicates that the price may still have bullish momentum and could attempt one last summer rally.
However, if this level is breached, the upward move may be limited, especially since trading volumes have remained relatively stable. The RSI is slightly overbought at 60.79%, and the MACD is trending above its signal line—pointing to a potential buy signal and continued upward movement.
In this context, investors should closely monitor the upcoming sessions: a clear breakout above resistance could trigger fresh buying, but failure to overcome the congestion zone could increase the likelihood of a deeper corrective phase.
Portfolio Rotation? Alternative Markets to Watch
With the IBEX 35 hovering near relative highs and showing potential long-term exhaustion signals, some investors may consider rotating toward markets with greater upside potential:
EuroStoxx 50: Still has room to set new annual highs. As long as it holds above 5,200 points, it remains in an upward channel. A breakout above 5,430 could trigger a new rally.
Chinese markets (CSI 300 / China A50): The index recently reached new yearly highs, breaking above levels not seen since December 2024. Despite structural economic weaknesses, government stimulus could support short-term momentum. It’s worth noting that while the China A50 index has a slight bullish bias, it has remained range-bound since October last year. Being composed of the country’s top companies, this might reflect a more subdued economic reality compared to the more volatile CSI 300.
Tech indices (Nasdaq 100): Easing bond yields in the U.S. and strong tech earnings could continue to support the Nasdaq, particularly in a growth-seeking environment.
Commodities and emerging markets: With a potential correction in Europe, investors may also consider real assets and more cyclically sensitive markets such as Latin America or emerging Asia.
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POSSIBLE BEARISH MOVE SCENERIO Currently we're monitoring 30M time frame chart. I’m expecting a sell move from the P.O.I zone marked on the chart. Since today is the first day of the week, the market volume is a bit low. Now let's see when the price reaches our P.O.I zone, and once it does, how the price behaves. We'll be watching for any bearish signs or confirmations. We’ll only enter the trade after getting a proper bearish confirmation. We'll also wait for the NY session to open before making any decisions. Let's see how this trade setup plays out.
Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
#GOLD 30M Technical Analysis Expected Move.
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) 4-Hour Chart4-hour chart from OANDA shows the price movement of Gold Spot (XAUUSD) with a current value of $3,325.625, reflecting a $11.925 increase (+0.36%). The chart highlights key levels including a sell price of $3,325.290 and a buy price of $3,325.960, with a spread of 67 points. Technical analysis includes a resistance zone around $3,359.388 and a support zone near $3,317.966, with recent price action showing a potential upward trend from a low point. The chart spans from June to early August 2025.
Gold expected moves Strong bullish impulse 3300 to 3323 suggests buyers are stepping in. Prior bearish legs showed decreasing momentum, and the last drop failed to break the previous low sign of potential bullish divergence.
Area to Watch
If price breaks above 3345 with strong volume and closes above expect continuation toward 3370–3382 zone.
If price fails to break above 3345 and forms a lower high, expect another rejection and move down toward 3295.
Why Your Orange Juice Costs More?The price of orange juice is surging, impacting consumers and the broader economy. This increase stems from a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic pressures, and severe environmental challenges. Understanding these multifaceted drivers reveals a volatile global commodity market. Investors and consumers must recognize the interconnected factors that now influence everyday staples, such as orange juice.
Geopolitical shifts significantly contribute to the rising prices of orange juice. The United States recently announced a 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports, effective August 1, 2025. This politically charged move targets Brazil's stance on former President Jair Bolsonaro's prosecution and its growing alignment with BRICS nations. Brazil dominates the global orange juice supply, providing over 80% of the world's trade share and 81% of U.S. orange juice imports between October 2023 and January 2024. The new tariff directly increases import costs, squeezing margins for U.S. importers and creating potential supply shortages.
Beyond tariffs, a convergence of macroeconomic forces and adverse weather conditions amplify price pressures. Higher import costs fuel inflation, potentially compelling central banks to maintain tighter monetary policies. This broader inflationary environment impacts consumer purchasing power. Simultaneously, orange production faces severe threats. Citrus greening disease has devastated groves in both Florida and Brazil. Extreme weather events, including hurricanes and droughts, further reduce global orange yields. These environmental setbacks, coupled with geopolitical tariffs, create a robust bullish outlook for orange juice futures, suggesting continued price appreciation in the near term.
XAUUSD Bullish Setup (30m) 📊 **XAUUSD Bullish Setup (30m)** 🟡
Gold is showing a potential bullish continuation after breaking structure and retesting the lower Gann box range.
🟩 **The price is currently holding within the Gann Box**, respecting both time and price symmetry, and bouncing off the **0.382 Fibonacci level** — indicating a healthy correction in an uptrend.
📌 The confluence between:
* Fibonacci retracement
* Gann box support
* EMA dynamic support
...could provide the fuel for the next bullish impulse.
🔹 **Entry Zone**: 3,321
🔹 **Stop**: 3,316
🔹 **Target 1** 🎯: 3,340
🔹 **Target 2** 🎯: 3,360
🔹 **Risk-Reward**: Up to 1:8 ✅
🧠 Key confirmations:
* Bullish price action inside Gann box
* Holding above dynamic support (white EMA)
* Time symmetry favors bullish momentum
🚨 Wait for a bullish candle close within the upper half of the Gann box to confirm breakout continuation.
USOIL🛢️ USOIL (WTI Crude Oil) – Technical Outlook & Forecast
Current Price: $64.55
Bias: Bullish Only
Forecast Levels: $82.00 → $85.00 → $90.00+
🔍 Market Overview:
Crude oil (USOIL) is currently trading around $64.55, showing early signs of a potential bullish reversal from multi-month lows. Despite recent volatility and macroeconomic uncertainties, the technical structure indicates the formation of a solid accumulation base, potentially preparing for a significant upward move.
📈 Technical Perspective:
Price Action: Oil is attempting to reclaim key support zones that have held historically during large-scale recoveries.
Momentum: Oscillators (like RSI/MACD) may be turning up from oversold territory (subject to chart confirmation), further supporting the bullish scenario.
Volume Profile: Accumulation at lower levels hints at smart money interest around the $60–$65 zone.
🎯 Bullish Targets:
$82.00 – Psychological and technical resistance
$85.00 – Previous swing high / Fib extension zone
$90.00+ – Medium-term projection if momentum sustains
🧭 Conclusion:
The bias for USOIL remains bullish only while the $60–$62 zone holds firm as support. Breakout above near-term resistances could open the way for a strong move toward $82, $85, and even $90+. Keep an eye on macro events and inventory data for short-term volatility.
🟢 Trade Setup Idea (For Reference Only):
Long bias above $64–$65 support zone, targeting $82–$90 over the coming weeks/months. Use proper risk management.