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Should we keep an eye on China?Sorry guys, but I need to open this debate. Will VALE3 really make a double bottom in the region of 53.64? I honestly have a big doubt right now. I'm starting to question my previous review for only one reason . Is this the real price for the company, that is, is your market valuation the current one? I, looking to the left of the graph, realize that it is not. The fact for this is quite simple. Look at asset prices before the pandemic. It has always been working below the historical top region formed at the time (43.06) in September 2018. Then, of course, you will come up with the following question. -Ah, all commodities had a significant increase in the post-pandemic, so this is the main reason for the increase for iron ore and consequently the share price. And I will answer: -Okay, I completely agree with you, but answer me a question, because the answer you will give me will answer your argument and consequently defend mine: “-Who is the biggest consumer of iron ore in the world? ” You will surely answer me: -China, of course. I will say. - Well then, who controls the price of this commodity is China itself, therefore the valuation of the VALE company is completely linked to the value of iron ore in the international market (ops Chinese). Another factor I'm going to put on the table. Look at the price of iron ore in the pre-pandemic Shanghai market. They are falling, right? Therefore, I believe it to be the recession (real estate) that was approaching and that was confirmed in the sequence with the collapse of the main Chinese civil construction companies (Evergrande and others - recently we had Country Garden). Based on these assumptions, I'm going to kick the bucket and say the following: We will not have a double bottom (BRAZIL) (lol) , because I think that prices will seek two steps below, more precisely the region of 43.06, that historical peak of the time of 2018. Is it too much of a trip for me to think that the asset will not fall, but rather collapse in the coming months? Because if I consider that China's economic power is shrinking, I can have this daydream of seeing VALE's role in seeking the informed region! -Unfortunately for us, only time will tell if my daydream will be correct or not! Then look at the bearish pivot of my daydream's monthly chart! (lol) -Do your analysis and good business. -Be Conscious. If Buy, Use Stop Loss! -See below for other graphic reviews!
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by MacD_Bollinger
Commodities are falling, but for how long?It will be possible? Will we see the formation of the ABC pattern? -Assuming that many commodities are undergoing strong corrections, is it possible that animal proteins will fall even more? -After two straight years of increases, several commodities are going through this process, including animal protein. See below the graph of the future fat ox! -The big question is: If commodities are plummeting around the world, how can we explain that global economies are recovering? And what's worse, they really are recovering! Here we have yet another paradox to be answered. -Another question. If prices are strongly correcting, why is inflation not keeping pace with the correction of commodities and also dropping sharply? In other words, does global inflation remain “somewhat resilient”? -If global price inflation is resilient, will we have the much-feared “bullwhip effect”? After long periods of corrections, it's only fair that prices regain positive ground, right? -Will we see world governments continuing to strangle the robustness of the global economy? FWB:LET 's Graph$ -Long term. After gaining new tops (historical – 15.77), we can see that the asset has entered a downtrend on this chart. The bearish pivot formed in the second month of 2023. From that month onwards, the asset failed to gain positive ground. Will prices seek the previous bottom at 7.88? Or will they go straight through and form the aforementioned ABC pattern, looking for the 6.32 region? -Still talking about the long term, the SETUP used is indicating that prices are trying to form a high pivot in this chart time. But how, if the trend is down? The bottom loss at 9.47 completely rules out the bullish pivot attempt indicated by SETUP. -I only tell you one thing: Who dictates the rules of the game is the market… However, as I have been saying for 2 years, and after countless observations, I will tell you again (KKK): “SETUP’S don’t lie, but the market does”. So, open your eyes. (lol) -On the weekly chart we have prices relying on the help of the long average to remain above the sticking range. Will this average be able to sustain prices and serve as a springboard to drive prices higher? But if there is a loss of this average, it may be inevitable that prices will seek the previous bottom reported above (7.88). -Weekly chart's bearish pivot is active, and if there is a loss of the 9.38 range, things could get quite difficult. -By the daily chart I don't want to say anything, as it is on the verge of pushing everything down the drain. -So, knowing that commodities are suffering, but inflation is falling, but not as it should, will the markets (companies) keep the pace of declines without even making an attempt to rebound? And will governments continue to strangle their economies via interest rates? -Below is the possible ABC pattern that the graph is trying to draw. But will it succeed? -Do your analysis and good business. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop! -See below for other graphic analysis.
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by MacD_Bollinger