Robpoll

Jan 19

NATGAS Well
Production dropped a bit to 100bcf over the weekend. Down from 102bcf.
Exports ran back to near all time highs of 15.8bcf.

Demand including exports has fallen off a bit to 130bcf.
The weather will continue to normalize each week.
I'd expect the down trend to continue, with the odd rally, until somewhere around $3 and $3.2.

Although the weather will be bearish. Stronger power demand from the US this year and even strong exports should support price.
I'd be expecting regular adventures into the 4S as demand ebbs and flows. Summer demand is next up.

As I said a few months ago, I expect we've returned to the pre 2015 times. Where price sat between $3 and $5 during low and peak demand.

That said, we have a lot of catalysts this year that could send price back below $3 if the war with Russia ends, for example, or running past $4 if the US and European Natgas stocks aren't looking like they'll refill ahead of demand seasons.

Remaining fluid and adjusting as the facts change make a great trader. Not getting fixed to any 1 particular idea.
That will be even more important this year.