@SPX500 bullish structurebulls will have to break previous 102 which could signal a strong bullish continuations trend, with a 20 day SMA break-through on the daily chart, i believe a break out from 102 will be very possible
SPX500 trade ideas
Huge Harmonics Big W structures are all over the market.
Harmonics are probably the most useful thing I know in terms of accurately predicting the important inflection points in markets. When there are harmonic reversals, they tend to come in essentially right on the nose (with a bit of stop hunting) and the failure of harmonics as a reversal is typically a strong trend continuation formation.
I love it when big harmonics set up because I almost always make money. Sometimes I make money in the reversal, sometimes I make money in the breakout - and I am equally happy with either one.
Unless I have extremely good reason to fade the harmonics, I'll tend to default to betting on the reversal. Few reasons for this. One is I love to trade asymmetrical RR and harmonic reversals always offer this. Second is harmonics will often at least fake a reversal and give scope to get stops into even and freeroll the reversal.
Finally, I somewhat feel harmonic reversal trades are "Free to lose" because 90% of the time I'm going to make between three to seven times what I lose when I see the pattern has failed and flip bias.
When big harmonics form, big decisions are made. At this point I basically consider this to be a Law of the market. Generally agnostic on if it will be up or down, but strongly expect it will pivotal decision.
Here's a dump of massive harmonics.
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They are ... everywhere.
Something exciting is going to happen. I find it essentially impossible there this big a confluence of harmonic patterns and something spectacular does not follow.
US500 longus500
LONG
💎Please don't be greedy
ENTRY : yellow point
TP : blue lines
SL :
below red line for LONG position
above red line for SHORT position
⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 1:
Please respect the yellow entry point, otherwise you risk entering too early before my strategy or too far, thus reducing gains and aggravating losses in the event of a stop loss
⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 2:
For risk and money management:
5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20
And
3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20
19.12.24 SPX 5872 : Sector RotationRegarding the last 15 to 20 months, on monthly chart, you will find the comparison between the major sectors within the SPX: semiconductors, finance, retailer goods, information technology.
What is interesting: sector information technology still rising, no cut, no descending, linear rsining, not hyperpolic, which is still a sign of exuberation.
The largest companies in this sector:
Oracle, Microsoft, nvidia, adobe, accenture, intel, cisco, salesforce, apple.
So main question is: if information technology is our favorite for 2025, which of the companies are the relative strongest and at fair price/earning. Answer will be given in separate chart.
And then we will well prepared downmove in SPX which i expect in jan/feb for 10-20%.
Dan, 19th of September.
Big channelLooks like S&P is heading towards the top of a big channel that began from October 2023 low. This is an attempt to predict when and where it would happen, which is approximately on November 18 at 6115.
Downward pressure on S&P 500 Index intensified past daysYesterday's sell-off damaged the S&P 500's 50-day moving average. While we initially saw a bounce back at the opening, it didn't hold. This makes the 5925 level a critical point to watch as we head toward the end of the year.
For those keeping an eye on the charts, a trendline has been intact since the low in October 2023. Although it was breached during the August downturn, we managed to rally back into the bullish channel that's been forming since the fourth quarter of 2023. This channel offers support around the 5800 mark, and I anticipate this level will hold as we close out the year. Should we dip further, the following support levels to watch are 5690 and 5525.
While I don't foresee us dropping to these lower levels before year-end, it's essential to acknowledge the potential downside risk. The market sentiment shifted following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, giving sellers the upper hand for the first time since the summer.
Weekly 'composite index' RSI signals sell - 2000 repeat coming?Combined market indices divided by DXY has accurately signaled market expansion and contraction for more than 30 years. In the 'Internet Bubble' timeframe, although a RSI sell signal occurred, the market regained lost ground in 2000 prior to a multi-year sell-off. We see a similar run-up, sell signal, recovery now.
Is this time different? Or will we see a decline beginning January-February 2025.
SPX500 H4 |Potential bullish bounceSPX500 is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 6,033.76 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 5,950.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 6,121.24 which is a level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level.
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Accumulating VOO ETF This is the ETF that I am invested in for the long haul......So, if my prediction is right, this fall to close the gap would provide a good opportunity to add more.
Last night , 3% fall is pretty scary , due to Fed's announcement of rate cut so it might not play out as I had shown in this chart. That means, after closing the gap, there is a possibility that it might falls further.........
Please DYODD
The S&P500 is struggling to reach its previous peak
The S&P500 is approaching the 5914-5892 support range on the one-hour timeframe after a price decline. This area acts as strong support due to previous reactions and a crossover with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
The price reaction to this support area indicates buyers’ willingness to increase their strength. The bullish candles that will form after hitting this level indicate a possible price reversal.
If this level holds, a move towards the targets of 6033 and then 6126 is possible in the short term. However, a break of the support level of 5892 could lead to a further decline and a drop to lower ranges. Traders should pay attention to the price reaction to these ranges as well as trading volume.
Market Breadth showing Weakness Market Breadth showing Weakness. Drops back below key level.
Yield curve starting to steepen, breaking the longest inverted period in history.
Looking for the next red monthly inside candle early next year to start getting bearish.
Only two rate cuts anticipated next year instead of four.
NEW IDEA FOR S&P500The S&P 500 index is engaged in channel ceiling resistance at 6084 points on the four-hour timeframe, and given the bullish tendencies of the Alligator indicator, there is a possibility of the price increasing to the 161.8% Fibo resistance at 6150 points.
US500 evening analysisTechnical analysis of US500.
This analysis has price in wave 4 of (5).
Wave 4 would appear to be an Elliott Triangle Wave.
If accurate, wave 5 of (5) would provide one more all-time-high to complete top (unless truncated).
Price is very unlikely to tag median line of pitchfork (red line), a bearish side which suggests price should fall back to 5835.6 at a minimum.
Count valid for price below 6197.
SPX500 Nears Key Level, Test PossibleHello,
VANTAGE:SP500 is currently lingering near the previous high of 6102.46. At this point, there's a possibility that the 1M PP could be tested soon!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the trading session this week, the S&P 500 index has exhibited a consistent steady to a lower trajectory, progressing towards our newly established support target of 6034. There remains the potential for a further decline to the subsequent Outer Index Dip level at 5980. Conversely, a notable upside movement via the previously retested Key Res 6090 level is anticipated, which may facilitate a rally to the Outer Index Rally target of 6123; this development will likely pave the way for the next phase of the bullish trend.
S&P500 - The Most Important Channel Breakout!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is retesting a crucial breakout area:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
During 2024, the S&P500 rallied more than 25% after we already saw a very bullish year of 2023. However, momentum is always more likely to continue and since the S&P500 is currently retesting a major breakout level, this bullish momentum could lead to a final breakout.
Levels to watch: $6.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
S&P 500 - sidewaysUS stock indices finished lower on Tuesday with the broad-based, domestically-focused Russell 2000 leading the decline. The Russell represents US mid-to-smaller-cap stocks, and closed down 1.2%. It has now lost over 5% since making a fresh all-time high three weeks ago, after rallying 11% in the aftermath of Trump’s election victory in early November. The Dow has dropped around 3.5% from its own record high in early December. Yesterday’s loss meant that the old school, price-weighted index has registered nine successive losing sessions, its worst run in over six years. In contrast, the S&P 500 continues to consolidate just below all-time highs, while the NASDAQ 100 posted its own record high on Monday. Tech stocks continue to garner investor interest, despite their considerable outperformance in 2024. This morning, Tesla dropped 3%, pulling back a touch from its own all-time high hit on Monday. This followed news that the EV giant’s Shanghai plant manager is leaving the company. In contrast, NVIDIA jumped 3%, bouncing off the nine week low hit yesterday. Longer term US Treasury yields continue to creep up. The yield on the 10-year is back to a fresh four week high, above 4.40% and closing in on the potentially problematic level above 4.50%. This level could prove to be a headwind for equities. Bond yields will be in sharp focus this evening as the Federal Reserve announces its final rate decision of the year. The consensus expectation is that the Fed’s FOMC will cut by 25 basis points, taking the Fed Funds rate to 4.50% for a total 100 basis points-worth of rate cuts this year, beginning in September. But likely of greater importance will be the FOMC’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) where members give their forecasts for GDP growth, unemployment, inflation and the Fed Funds rate for next year and beyond. This will provide a set of guidelines for investors who currently predict just 50 basis points of additional cuts in 2025. Contrast this with September’s SEP when the FOMC forecast 100 basis points-worth of cuts next year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will also host a press conference which will be of great interest to market participants. The prevailing view is that the Fed will accompany the rate cut with hawkish comments, indicating that it’s time to take a pause in loosening monetary policy. This seems wise, given the incoming Trump administration, the recent uptick in inflation, decent US economic growth and the strength of the US stock market.
SPX: another ATHThe positive track for S&P 500 continued for another week. The index reached a fresh new all time highest level during the previous week, at the level of 6.090. November jobs data were in the center of attention of investors, which witholded the positive sentiment during the first week of December. The US economy added 227K new jobs, which was modestly higher from the market estimate. Despite the relatively stable jobs market, the CME FedWatch Tool is showing the expectation of market participants that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps at their December meeting, with 85% odds.
Tech companies were again in the spotlight of investors. However, this week, same as previous, retailers were also in the focus. It comes after a summary of estimates of sales for holidays in the US, where Black Friday shopping was the first estimate. The traditional New Year holidays season is coming as of the end of December, from which retailers should additionally benefit.
At the dawn of a new year, HSBC provided their estimates for the year 2025. As per their analysts, the S&P 500 could continue to reach higher levels. HSBC estimate is the level of 6.700. They are supporting their view on the index, with the slow but resilient US economy, “and some margin expansions”.
SPX path from here 12/6/2024Refer to the chart for two potential scenarios in the SPX:
Bullish Scenario: A break and sustained hold above 6100 could confirm an upward move.
Bearish Scenario: The current level may act as resistance, leading to a gap fill at 6050, followed by a retest, offering a strong shorting opportunity targeting 5750-5850.
SPX 6086 - VIX and Put/Call Ratio : the market combines it all.How to read the Chart?
SPX in main picture an below - with own scales- you find the Put/Call Ratio and and bottom the VIX.
Put/call Ratio tells us, how much euphoric is in the market. Values below 0.65 , market is bullish.
VIX tells us, how much volatilty is in the market. Values below 13 tells us normally, that market is prepared for larger or bigger movements. Values also important, for calculate price of warrants etc. Low VIX cheaper prices for warrants.
So: in the chart now you can see several time stamps with green marks on price SPX, VIX and P/C Ratio.
The meaning of this all: high coincidence with low values in VIX and P/C Ratio will high indicator for downward moves. The deeper values on VIX and P/C Ratio, the stronger the downward move.
Dan, 11th dec 2024
SPXUSD Daily Has A Inverse Cup & Handle Hey fellow traders and followers! I have to point out a possible inverse cup & handle and targets if she plays out in SPX Oanda.
Breaking point on daily is 5881.6 after which would trigger bears to take over the show and bring us down to the measured move of 5751.3 area. If that area breaks after being tested with a fail we falllll ---
-----
--5643.3------------
Market sits in no man's land I like to call it being bulls and bears on both sides of this rope in a tug of war. Be very very cautious at this time as charts in bigger TF's are starting to spell( FALL )
Don't get hurt on this one as this fall will give you more than just a scrape on the knees, more like a broken leg or worse.
Trade with caution and best of luck in all your trades. Cheers!
THE ONLY BULLISH WAVE COUNT The chart posted is the only bullish wave count based on what I see . I will await confirmation and take only a small long and Move to a 100 % puts if we rally above 6108
SPX × US10Y: A Signal for Market Tops and Economic Shifts1. Combining Equity Levels and Yield Sensitivity
SPX (S&P 500) reflects equity market strength and investor sentiment. When SPX is rising, it typically indicates optimism or strong earnings growth expectations.
US10Y (10-year Treasury yield) reflects the cost of capital and inflation expectations. Rising yields can signify tightening financial conditions or economic overheating.
When you multiply these two metrics, the product magnifies the impact of simultaneous market exuberance (high SPX) and rising yields (high US10Y). A very high SPX × US10Y value could indicate a market environment where valuations are stretched, and higher yields are increasing the cost of capital—often a precursor to market corrections.
2. Historical Patterns
In prior market tops, both equity valuations (SPX) and yields (US10Y) often peak together before significant corrections:
Dot-Com Bubble (2000): SPX was highly elevated, and rising yields signaled an end to loose monetary conditions.
2007-2008 Financial Crisis: SPX was at record highs, and US10Y yields were climbing, reflecting tighter monetary policy.
2021-2022 Post-Pandemic: SPX hit record highs, and yields started to rise sharply as inflation surged, leading to a market correction.
The SPX × US10Y value tends to peak during these moments, providing a warning signal of market excess.
If you are using the SPX × US10Y (multiplication) instead of division, it can still serve as a market indicator, though the mechanics are slightly different. Here’s why the product of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield (SPX × US10Y) might be relevant for predicting market tops:
3. Economic Logic Behind the Indicator
A. Reflects Cost of Capital
Rising US10Y yields increase the discount rate used to value stocks. High SPX × US10Y suggests equities are vulnerable to revaluation if yields continue to rise.
B. Overheating Economy
High SPX × US10Y often coincides with an overheating economy, where inflation pressures push yields higher, while equities are driven by optimism. This imbalance can quickly reverse if monetary tightening occurs.
C. Peak Growth Phase
A peak in the SPX × US10Y value might signal the economy is at the late stage of the business cycle, where growth slows, and equities face headwinds.
4. Why It May Predict Market Tops
Valuation Excess: A high SPX × US10Y product reflects elevated valuations combined with tightening financial conditions.
Transition to Risk-Off Environment: Rising yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, potentially triggering equity outflows.
Fed Policy Influence: If yields are rising due to Federal Reserve tightening, equity markets often react negatively as borrowing costs rise and liquidity is withdrawn.
