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Based on the methodology mentioned in the previous two Market Prediction posts here I set target level for the recent bull market cycle. As seen on the chart 2.618x projection of wave 1 accurately set target for wave 3 around 1355. Market peaked slightly above that level. 1.618x projection of wave 3 gives target level 1680 for the last bull wave. I consider...

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This post is continuation of the "Market Prediction 1994-2000" post. For the bull market 2002-2007 same target setting conditions apply as for the previous cycle. The outcome of the analysis is pretty accurate. Wave 3 target set by 2.618x projection of wave 1 was 1255. The S&P peak was at 1244. Wave 5 target was set at 1522. As seen, the index stalled around that...

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Using the basis of Eliot wave analysis in combination with Fibonacci ratios, in particular 1.618x and 2.618x, gives powerful tool in target setting of the bull phases of market cycle. For the bull market 1994-2000 wave 3 target set by 2.618x projection of wave 1 was 1065. As seen on the chart the target was surpassed. This is not exception for wave 3 as it is the...

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After trading in a triangle consolidation for the last year gold finaly broke the triangle in friday. The implications from technical point of view mean that the next target could be $2000. This level is formed as projection of the triangle height is added to the breakout level.

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On the chart I have used simple analysis which follows the strength of the recent bull markets and the range of the bear ones as a base for building projection for the next NASDAQ target. The foundation of the projection is the summer bottom of 2439 registered on 1st of June. Adding the average gain for the previous two cycles (around 750 points) gives a target...

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Can we use gold to preserve our assets from market crash? In that regard is observation of the 6 year performance chart of gold, represented by (GLD), and S&P500 index (SPX) which lead to the following conclusions: - For the last three years Gold (GLD) followed SPY corrections with certain lag - Market corrections tend to be more severe compared to gold...

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This chart combines two previous charts into thorough stock price analysis. Most important findings: - AAPL experiences strong bull markets in Autumn-Spring period - New product releases usually pump the price - Post release period is followed by correction within larger consolidation The support level has been moved upward to $565 (200 MA) More analysis at...

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The highly anticipated iPhone 5 release has pumped Apple price to new records as investors jump in the strongly desired stock. It is interesting how does the Apple shares behave around important product release dates. Here some findings: There are some common price patterns repeated almost around every product release date: - The price peaks few days before...

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In paper named “Presidential Elections and Stock Market Cycles” Marshall Nickles, EDD thoroughly describes the evidence for such a connection, examining 15 stock market cycles that have occurred From April 1942 to October 2002 as well as presidential elections for that period. Here I intend to use that methodology to review the last two stock market cycles and...

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Apple proved to be strictly trading in seasonal pattern. From the observation of daily chart since mid 2009 we could state that there are two repeating patterns every year since 2009. The first is a bullish market which usually starts during autumn (September-November) and lasts until spring (April). The second is consolidation period which occurs in summer...

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Apple support range appears to be $520-540. That is the area close to triangle support line and projected 200 day moving average, both strong support levels. It is questionable whether investors would let AAPL stock touch those levels thus price under 560 is acceptable. The short term target is $642, the April peak.

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S&P500 index is showing really disturbing signals. The fact that we got fresh new lower highs suggests negative trend formation. Another worrying fact is the divergence between the index and the histogram of the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator. This suggests trend reversal. Using 2011 bottoms as reference and the parallel channel of the...

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Breakthrough of the parallel channel confirmed the bearish trend of the silver. The precious metal tried to reverse last two months but growing concern over China (demand) has pressured the price further. Still SLV is trading within the long term triangle consolidation. If we see breakthrough of the triangle resistance line (another bearish sign) levels of $22.40...

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In post published five months ago I set target (the range $520-540) for Google based on the seasonal deviations and repeating patterns of the stock. Now the analysis proved to be consistent and Google reached $557 in late June. Still the target stays intact, however if broad market rally occurs we could easily see the tech giant trading above its 200 moving average ($602).

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In post published three months ago named "Qualcomm seasonal trading" I have pointed out the repeating seasonal pattern of this stock. Since then the share fell from $62 at the end of April to the bottom of $52.9 in mid July. Probably the correction has not finished yet however there are signs that we are approaching the end of summer bear market as second half of...

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Ten year chart of EURUSD shows two cycle pattern. The bullish market, which started 2002, lasted 6 years. The peak was formed in 2008 when the crisis erupted. If we assume that the bear market would be with the same duration as bullish one the end of this cycle could be dated at the end of 2013 or the beginning of 2014 with target 1.08. Of course such assumption...

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After the neckline of the “head and shoulders” figure was broken the target for the bearish case in EURUSD was breached and the figure has been completed. In March 26th post the target I set was 1.2690 which after several updates has been lowered to 1.2620. Although not exactly reached, the EURUSD min was 1.2635 (vs. 1.2620 expected), the accuracy of this analysis...

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In the previous post labeled “EURUSD in triangle consolidation” I pointed out the two possible outcomes for the pair. Recent indecisiveness seen in consolidation around 1.30-1.32 was interrupted by neckline brake under 1.30 level which means that next target could be 1.26.