Crypto-Swing

Crypto-Swing

While the world plunges into a complex array of issues that threaten social destabilization across multiple fronts, Bitcoin has shown an unexpected level of resiliency. Through the past two weeks is has climbed from $53.4k to $67.4k and in so doing has confirmed a large Inside Bar in the weekly timeframe (orange circle). This is a bullish formation, typically...

Crypto-Swing

Well, it’s a week after my previous post on the directional prospects for Bitcoin and it was the bearish case that won out. I noted a 3 Black Crows pattern in the weekly candlesticks had formed and bearish momentum in the MACD, which overwhelmed the levels of support that were in play. This week we can see the bearish momentum has continued with a large (16%)...

Crypto-Swing

As we prepare to roll into the 11th week after the Bitcoin Halving event, we can see that the typical price oscillations creating fear, uncertainty and doubt in the new investors have been playing out. However, there are many indicators that suggest that the BTC price is well supported and is setting up for a nice rally into OCT-NOV 2025, but of course, there are...

Crypto-Swing

Looking across the Altcoin market, wondering whether we have capitulated or not, I notice DOGE presents a very useful example of the perilousness of the Alt-coin situation. Looking at the standard daily chart, let’s consider the bearish and bullish cases: Bearish Case Firstly, we see a multi-month Head & Shoulders pattern, with pricing sitting just above the...

Crypto-Swing

Observation After 58 weeks of price rising within a well-defined channel, Bitcoin has hit the top of that channel, while tracing out an almost perfect Cup formation. Considering the sustained over-bought conditions of the weekly RSI and a MACD that is rolling over, it seems that BTC is ready to correct and build a Handle to complete the Cup formation. ...

Crypto-Swing

Looking at the recent interest in BCH and the short-term strength being displayed in BTC, I notice there is the potential for BCH to continue to out-perform BTC in the next move. In this chart we see what appears to be a wave 4 correction and a bullish pennant that looks to be breaking to the upside. All this is occurring above the weekly pivot point with the...

Crypto-Swing Updated 

In this study, I take a close look at the Elliot Wave structure of the movement since March 10 to make sense of this crazy consolidation we have been witnessing since March 23, in the 4-hr chart, refining the wave count of the previous study. Currently sitting on the weekly pivot of $28k, I see a corrective wave structure that has developed, that not only...

Crypto-Swing

With the Price Divergence growing stronger in the RSI, MACD and Volume, the recent peak to $29.1k in BTC looks like a point from which to correct. In this study, I show the convergence at the $25.5 zone of the 0.5 level of the rising channel, the 1W200MA, the 1D50MA, the 0.618 level of the rally to $29.1k and the Unconfirmed Support level at $25.2k. What do...

Crypto-Swing

Considering the similarities between the current recovery from the November 2022 lows and the 2019 recovery, which would you consider the most likely target for this rally:- $33K, $36k, $43k, or $48k? I will point out that the: 1) Current rally is bouncing off a Wave 2 pivot at $19.5k, with Waves 3-4-5 to go. 2) Weekly RSI is above 52 (a condition for...

Crypto-Swing

As the number of newly transacting Bitcoin addresses continues to surge in the wake of the SVB Bank Run and failure, the price of Bitcoin is showing a clear Sign of Strength in Wyckoff terms, by rallying strongly through the $25k zone of resistance. In more general TA terms, we can see this as a move above the neckline of a large Inverse Head and Shoulders...

Crypto-Swing

In this study, I show the Rising Wedge that has broken down, driving the recent drop, with price finding the support line of the Bullish Megaphone structure for a 3rd time. The current challenges in this chart for bulls to overcome are: The break of the Wedge projects a movement below the support of the Megaphone; A Bear Flag is formed The downward...

Crypto-Swing

In this study I contrast the 2018 bottom and 2019 recovery with the 2022 bottom and 2023 recovery, in the weekly chart, focused on the respective vertical lines. In each case you will note that the 1W 12MA (purple line) has crossed bullish over the 1W 20MA (brown line), while the 1W 50MA (Golden line) offers resistance to the price action. In 2019 this was...

Crypto-Swing Updated 

Bitcoin rising to a higher-high resolves the prior minor wave forms into an irregular expanded flat correction, completing an atypical Wave 4 to now be in the throws of tracing out a Wave 5. Consistent with the market structure outlined in my post from Jan 25. What do you think? Is Bitcoin commencing a minor Wave 5 for another rally to higher highs, or are the...

Crypto-Swing

With price divergences in the daily and hourly charts suggesting a correction of the rally is due, we see an interesting situation playing out with BTC in the weekly chart. A critical support level exists at around $18.4k that, if broken below, eviscerates the bullish case for a continuation of the rally to a higher-high and instead, opens the doors to a new...

Crypto-Swing

In this study I point out a few of the artifacts in the BTC chart that provide a view of the structural weakness in Bitcoin while hinting at a target end of the bear market. The major elements are: A broken uptrend today of the recent rising channel (pink) at the same time as the larger declining channel (black) intersects its support line, demonstrating its...

Crypto-Swing

In this 4-hour chart I consider the Elliott Wave count and what this might mean for the current posture and ultimate low. I also point out a prior line of resistance is as yet unconfirmed support and the break above the neckline hasn't manifested in bullish confidence or volumes. In doing so I feel I might have answered the question I posed in the last post,...

Crypto-Swing

In this chart I note the completion of an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that and a bullish Inside Bar formation following the $15.5k low. I consider the line of support offered within the Fibonacci Channel that has defined the entire Bitcoin bear market to date and wonder if this is not a natural bottom for Bitcoin. What do you think? Is the bottom in? Or...

Crypto-Swing

In this study on THETA, you will note the breakdown of the longer-term consolidation over the past two weeks, as THETA has broken through support at $0.95 to form a bearish triangle that also looks to be breaking down. A Fibonacci projection of this drop below support of the longer-term channel presents a few targets; $0.748, $0.648 and possibly $0.485. Do you...