I am writing this post to organize my thoughts on ATR and Volatility. I have noticed that there are three different phases of Volatility. Low Medium High Using the 1 period ATR on the Daily chart, the high to low movement indicates what kind of Volatility one can expect. Low Volatility is when, on average, the daily high to low is around 300 ticks...
Looking over Long term bull trends, this current bull run from 2009 to present day, more resembles the 40's bull run vs the dot com bull run. I placed a red dot where I believe we COULD be in the current bull run if using the 40's run as a guide. If this is to be true, then we can expect a deep pullback into the 32,000's in a giant range, consolidation....
So far price is setting up for a trend day based on how it is looking. I will wait for a pullback down to the Low of Day and or the Daily open for NY to open. A trend day starts off with NY opening.
I am making this post for my own improvement of my entries. If this helps anyone else, then that is a plus as well. Entry Type 1: Bearish Engulfments These types of entries are when NY opens and spikes right through the High of day and engulfs a high bull bar. Entry Type 1: Bearish Pullbacks These types of entries are when NY opens after a...
Using the monthly chart, I am looking at another bearish month of consolidation. I expect a wick up to February's open in orange and a wick down to January's Low. I then expect a close around 2025's Open at 42,929. I then expect May to be a monstrous month taking out all of this consolidation and continuing the bullish trend. I am looking for price to slow...
If I see a double bottom low forming at the beginning of the new month of March, then this will confirm that there is no dump coming and the highs of February will get taken. The support from January CPI is holding so far. Because of this Giant range around 44,000, any dumps seem to be getting bought up. 2025 will be a very ranging year and probably...
I will be watching this last bearish candle and how price pullsback into it. I am looking at the daily chart for a doji day and a rolling over of price action. I am expecting it to be near the end of the month. There is only 5 trading days left of February. Thursday broke out and closed below the last 6 days. I am letting the market set up and waiting....
Triggered now, is a Long trade at 44,260-275. I currently am Long now at 44.260 using the 2-hour chart. I am using a fixed 125 tick stop and a fixed 500 tick target for a 4 to 1. If you enter this trade as well, risk appropriately and realize that any trade can fail. 8 Hour Doji forming 2 Hour what I am thinking. A basing near the highs of this candle...
I am anticipating a down doji year of 2025 with the high being put in place now. I am expecting a deep pullback to 40,000, followed by a sharp rally back up to the 2025 open of 43,000 and a slow, retracement to close the year at 42,000. This will give the year a -2.5% return this year. 2026 I am expecting a massive bullish year after this doji year. I am...
Looking at the Daily chart, the entire range is from 42,000-46,000. Price is bumping its head up against 45,000 multiple times and forming a bearish range. Major support is down at the 2025 Open from 42,000-43,000. It looks like one more pump up to around the 45,000 area before the dump. 8 Hour Chart 2 Hour Chart 15 Minute Chart and how selling at...
I will be giving a breakdown on my own personal strategy on how I trade the Dow Jones Futures. I am writing this post for two reasons. First and foremost, to help people. Secondly, to help myself in better understanding. The way that I trade is using support and resistance, only I don't use the traditional sense of support and resistance that is taught. I use...
Going into next week, I am looking for a consolidation/layering into the middle of the range and into 44,500. If price sets up, I will look for the Long back up. In my opinion, I believe price to not return back under February's open, notated in orange. Price should stay above the middle of the range if it will break out bullish. After the break bullish, I...
I am expecting price to pull back bullish into my resistance area of around 44,600. Price is still in its bearish move from the high of the range down to the low of the range. Currently, price has been chopping around the middle of the range this week. This will be my last trade opportunity of the week. I want to see how price reacts into resistance. I will...
Looking at the 3 month chart of Dow Jones, with a little under 2 months to go until the close of the current 3 month bar, I believe it will close near the highs. The last 3 month bar was a reverse hammer, a very bullish candle and a buy signal. This current week's candle gave me a huge clue as to what will most likely happen next. It is creating a gap spacing...
I will be trying out a new holding style for my trades going forward based on my journal and statistics. Instead of having a fixed target, I will instead hold my trades all the way until 04:00pm market close. Pros: Letting trades run. I don't know how far a trade will go. By not having a strict target, I can lock in those big running days. Not stressing over...
This post is purely speculation, and I will admit I have no idea what is to come. Just was doing some research and study and I happened to see a striking number of similarities between 2007 and supposed 2027. 2007 2027 Please let me know your opinions. Am I smoking something here? Are they really planning on dumping after 48,000?
I am seeing a two-legged pullback forming on the weekly chart with a possible higher low forming at the 2025 open. To me, it is looking like price is rolling over from 45,000. Of course, what I would need to see is an engulfment candle next week to confirm. Once and IF this happens, I will be looking for price to slow down and layer into the 2025 open for the...
Thursday on the Daily chart flashed a sell signal for a rejection off of 45,000. I am going in Friday with a bearish bias. Of course, I have no idea what will happen and could always be wrong. To me, this makes the most sense. A sell off to close the gap. From 45,000 down to 44,300 is a 700 tick move, not unreasonable for a NFP day. Notable profit...