EthanOS

EthanOS

Description The purpose of this idea is, based on past recessions, to try to predict when the next one could occur. Many factors could influence the future, but for now, we will focus on two of the most known indicators to predict a recession, the Yield Curve Inversion(ICV) and the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator. Usually, when the ICV stays below 0 for a period of...

EthanOS

The Yield Curve Inversion is considered a good indicator for anticipating a Recession. As we can see in this Idea, in the last 30 years, when the Yields were negative, the recession occurred after several months.

EthanOS

The next year, 2023, represent the third US presidential year. This analysis compares the last 7 presidential cycles with: - SPX - SP500 Index - USINTR - US Interest Rate - SAHMREC - The recession indicator So, we can conclude that most of the 3rd(Pre Election) year from the last 7 Presidential cycles were bullish where: - there was no recession, even though 2023...

EthanOS

This chart intent is to show how SPX behaved on the last 3 recessions.