KrunchieKilleen

KrunchieKilleen

My previous prediction has been knocked out of kilter by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has shocked the European economy. Further shocks can be anticipated as Europe grapples with its determination to drastically reduce its imports of Russian oil and gas and braces itself for possible extension of the war zone. Since this security is not a straight...

KrunchieKilleen

The trend of EUR/USD from here is upwards, though we can expect a bumpy start, as happened before.

KrunchieKilleen

So, the Euro has sprung back against the Dollar. It may be at a local peak, as it hits soon-to-be-redundant old Resistance Line A for the last time. Will it drop back from here, or will it finally break through this Resistance Line? The probability of a drop back is strong, as it swings down in its upward-facing Range. It could even drop through Support Line C and...

KrunchieKilleen

So, I reckon that the EUR/USD is now at or near the bottom. Soon it should spring up.

KrunchieKilleen

The orange-shaded zone depicts the upward Range the EUR/USD is following. The pink lines clone the down-slope of the most recent dive and measure it against previous dives and the possible dive of the near future. If it dives to the same extent now as previously, it will see the security crash through the bottom line of the depicted Range, but this will only be a...

KrunchieKilleen

My previous long-term Resistance Line A, though not yet breached, is quite irrelevant now, as I see the security moving within the orange-tinted range bound by Resistance Line B and Support Line C. The security will probably dip but, receiving Support at Line C, it is now unlikely to fall very far below $1.12. The over-all direction is up, but it will, of course,...

KrunchieKilleen

Resistance Line B has become redundant, and Resistance Line A offers its last gasp. The Euro is moving into an upward range against the US Dollar, but may still dip to find support at the floor of its upward range.

KrunchieKilleen

Resistance Lines A and B and Support Line C are carried forward from my previous post. It looks likely that the Euro will continue to test the bottom for another month before commencing its New Year upward trend.

KrunchieKilleen

Resistance Lines A and B will hold for the moment, but support will be found around $1.12. Support Line C may be temporarily breached, but the price is unlikely to go below $1.10. The rising trend will set in for sure around New Year's Day.

KrunchieKilleen

EUR/USD has fallen more directly than I anticipated and quickly approaches the bottom of its downward range, from which it must rebound into an upward trend sooner than I previously expected.

KrunchieKilleen

The horizontal yellow band represents my view of the EUR/USD normal range. The median value is $1.23. The first 10 years of the Euro's existence were marked by continuous media speculation about its imminent demise, which sent it into the nether regions. The Financial Crash at the end of the Noughties sent it into the stratosphere. Long-term it will oscillate...

KrunchieKilleen

The steep downswing of the last few days must run out of steam, predicating a flattening of the graph again over the next few weeks. The downtrend, nevertheless continues, bringing a further drop in the medium term.

KrunchieKilleen

The red resistance lines indicate the upper edge of the down-trend, the thickest line being the most likely. The current flat range is approaching its end, whereupon the down-trend will resume.

KrunchieKilleen

It looks likely that the EUR/USD will continue flat for the next month.

KrunchieKilleen

The green band in the chart shows the current range of EUR/USD. Red trend line A shows the down-slope norm. The sharp fall over the past month has caused the price to dip below that norm, so we can expect a levelling out over the next few weeks as it graduates back to trend-line A.

KrunchieKilleen

The Euro is now moving in its median range against the Dollar (which I reckon is between 1.12 and 1.25. It will continue downwards over the next few months and will either reach 1.12 or level off before then.

KrunchieKilleen

In my last post, I missed the mark, and this security rose instead of falling. However, the current chart shows it ready to tumble now, four days later.

KrunchieKilleen

The top chart shows the EUR.USD over its lifetime, i.e., 1994 to today. I have drawn a median (green) band that encompasses the normal range for the security, and three main Channels that show its great down-trends and up-trends. 2015, emerging from a down-channel into an orange-tinted up-channel, I have encircled its recent weeks in a blue-tinted disk and depict...