We have what appears to be a H&S pattern on the daily timeframe, with risk sentiment remaining positive in equities we can expect further decline for safe haven flows. US & China trade talks have picked back up on a positive note and DXY has remained firm against G10 counter parts, keep a close eye on the 1300.00 handle failure for P/A to stay above this area can...
BOC kept interest rates unchanged taking a neutral stance on montery policy. After +500 pip decline P/A is finding support around the (1.31830) level with that being said typical corrections can last 50%-100% in time and 38%-78% price for a nice intra day (long) counter trend trade (300) pips, keep a eye on oil prices!
Us&China trade war talks have not seem to convincing that a deal will be struck by March deadline. Fomc meetings this week, with a increasing Dovish tone from feds and miss in key economic data releases midweek as government shut down has come to a temporary halt (Feb15th) the risk exposure is to the downside as outflows from the greenback and inflows into "safe...
P/A is approaching a key psychological level + 61 Daily Fib retrace + strong supply zone, Brexit optimism currently supporting price but fears of a "No Brexit" deal is still on the table absent "Article 50" I favor the risk to the downside if there is a shift in sentiment and risk on tone in capital markets which should keep antipodeans well supported.
Oil prices has hit a major demand zone which can stir a healthy pull back off the a +30% decline for 2018 and with all the uncertainty surrounding the greenback FEDS monetary policy stance, slow in hike cycle, trade wars and global growth slowdown can serve as a catalyst for retracement back towards 1.31000 region
With price now back at September highs of last year (1.20924) slight above a weekly key level of (1.1950), we now have a valid XABCD daily gartley pattern now potentially complete. Despite a Non-Farm Employment Change missing expectations by 50k which the market reacted a rally spike back up to daily high, was quickly rejected showing that a pullback to weekly key...