NicTheMajestic

NicTheMajestic

- Yellow line is the VWAP from Jan 2022, last times we tested it the market sold. - White line is the 200 period SMA, last times we tested it the market sold. - Orange dashes is a simple regression channel, last time we tested it the market sold. - Red/green areas show over sold conditions from the Vix ratio and MMTW. - Vix ratio is (VIX9D/VIX1Y) it shows short...

NicTheMajestic

We just had FOMC. "Inflation just as bad as the start of the year" "Less chance of soft landing" "We are ok with over tightening because we have tools" "Too early to even think about talking about a pause" "We have powerful tools for the hot labour market to make it soft"

NicTheMajestic

Nics Plan for Q4. Waiting for IV to compress post earnings. Plan is to short now, and on the way up with a cover in Q1 or when over extended on the down side.

NicTheMajestic

The Economy is breaking. - Fed needs to kill inflation. - Fed is measures future (core) inflation by looking at employment. - Jobs are still strong. Practically, look at XLE, all those oil jobs. - That said, fed can only deal with demand side inflation and has no plan for supply side inflation. - Supply side inflation is the real problem and is controlled by OPEC...

NicTheMajestic Updated 

Here's the formulas I currently use to determine fair value: Fair Value = (Fed Bal Sheet - TGA - RRP)/1.1 - 1625 twitter.com

NicTheMajestic

Or is it ? 4200 was the bottom of pricing in QT. 4000 was the bottom of pricing in Inflation. 3700 was the bottom of pricing in recession. We have solved inflation and recession. so we should hit 4200. 4250 is the VWAP from the high. 4300 has lots of dead buyers. "Solved" I think we can have earning misses in Q3 earnings.

NicTheMajestic

SPX went to the gap, and failed. as predicted. A complex top and test of the 50 SMA is possible. That said, with earning and FOMC next week, grows less likely. A failure of this rally could get bloody, fast.

NicTheMajestic

SPX Touched the JPM Call Wall to the dollar, and hard rejected. I closed longs and now watching as earnings bring the bulls celebrating "4400 is next" back to earth. "Elmo Fire"

NicTheMajestic

Inflation expected to be elevated - White House. CPI Preview of 9% - UBS Last time we had CPI, things went poorly. If this is true, I do not expect the current range to hold.

NicTheMajestic

$SPX JPM quarterly collar just traded for September selling the 4005 calls and buying the 3580/3020 put spread, 45000X. Should be interesting if market ceiling at 4005 now

NicTheMajestic

Next moment of risk is 7/5 to 7/27. We should look for a high between 420 and 390. Dont get greedy.

NicTheMajestic

- How to chart VIX and find the next top. - Find the overall pattern (a wedge). - Look at the angle of last decays - Extrapolate

NicTheMajestic

Market hanging on by a thread. - After testing overnight lows, we had a reversal of market internals (UVOL / DVOL, TICKS, Breadth) and rocketed higher closing the day in the highs. - PCC gave a buy signal mid day, VIX Ratio almost gave a buy signal. - My take away is we should bounce here, but we need to look for a failure near the daily SMAs (20, 50, 100,...

NicTheMajestic

SPY At Trend Resistance, Have a good day! Also seeing poor breath, poor volume, extended RSI, and Vix Correlation

NicTheMajestic

Looking for a slight pullback here. That said, market internals are healthy and looking for 480 EOY.

NicTheMajestic

Still room to run on this rally. Statistical we are due for a 2% correction here. Perhaps to the 20 day SMA. That said, a end of year rally to 480 is technically fine.

NicTheMajestic

Every trader worth their salt needs to trade in at least one crappy biotech. I say trade, but chances are you will end up an investor... just like those guys who bought at $100. AXSM has a very nice pipeline. The drop was due to incorrect FDA filing. Perhaps the clean up their act and release some drugs for all the kids (and elderly) to enjoy.

05:00

NicTheMajestic Updated 

I was meditating on the container ship issue. The root issue is China does not need raw materials for construction, because they overbuilt. Theis is due to the evergrande situation, and the collapse of their real estate sector. Their alternative to real-estate was tech, specifically the Digital Yuan. The problem was it was bad, really bad. Instead of making DY...