PHICAPITALINVESTMENTS

PHICAPITALINVESTMENTS

Inspired by today's failed Bitcoin shareholders' vote, I've put up my prognosis for Microsoft MSFT for the next few months. MSFT is down almost 1.5% on the day, rejecting at the 78.8% retracement of the down move from the ATH. There are a couple possible scenarios going forward. Bullish case is that MSFT started a Bull Flag Correction (waves labeled in blue) ...

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THERE'S A CHANCE BITCOIN MAY GO TO $43000. We hit my nominal target of $56000 three times now during this larger time frame correction, which started at the ATH in March. It SEEMINGLY looks like we got the 'final' bounce off the 50% retracement fib @ $49000. HOWEVER, I don't like the way she's just hanging out mid-air between trend lines. This typically gives me...

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Was curious to see the spread between the US National Debt and Real GDP. As we can see, the National Debt was sustainable prior to 2016 as productivity was greater, but this has since changed. How long can we continue this, especially with a looming recession aka reduced productivity in spite of continued deficit spending?

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Just curious to see how the Real GDP chart stands against the National Debt chart. According to this, there is currently almost a 50% spread between productivity and fiscal spending. Is this sustainable?

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Split view showing the previous real rate of Bonds study along now with the actual Bond Yields. This is to gain insight into Demand dynamics for Bonds and what happens to yields when real yields are positive (expectation is that positive real yields will increase demand, reducing supply, and allowing Treasury to increase Bond prices and reduce yields.

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A study showing the real rate of returns on the various US Treasuries. Calculated by subtracting the YoY Inflation Rate (released monthly) from the Yield of the Bond. Real Fed Rate also shown for reference. Above 0 makes Bonds and Savings more attractive, aka more Demand for them. Price may increase and yields decrease, encouraging selling. Below 0 provides...

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Overlaying US Inflation, Fed Rates, Bond Yields, GDP, and Oil Price to determine any relationships between them

PHICAPITALINVESTMENTS

Quick sketch up of some possible paths for TESLA ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) long-term. According to this, we are in the middle of the 2nd leg of a 3-wave long-term weekly correction that started in Nov 2021. Wave A completed at the end of 2022, kicking off Wave B for 2023. Expecting some short-term turbulence on the way up back to the ATH at (B); could see a small dip back...

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🍎 NASDAQ:AAPL approaching a critical juncture, tagging the resistance trendline established from ATH on the Daily. If we take the structure from ATH to now as a 3 wave correction, we could be finished and exiting the structure for upside now. However, we could get a bounce to the downside off the resistance, which would form a 5 wave corrective structure instead...

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Reference chart for my research purposes. This is a study of determining the approximate start of a recession based on short-term bond rates.

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Reference chart for my research purposes. Studying the success of short-term bond rates to front run federal fund rate decisions (in white). Without much inspection, we can say they are fairly reliable.

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Reference chart for my research purposes. US Bond Yields Tracked Over Time

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Possible Double Zigzag (WXY) pattern playing out on S&P500, which started from the ATH in January and is still on going. In my previous analysis from 2020 (linked below), I proposed that the ENTIRE history of the S&P500 so far is simply part of a 5 wave bull Impulse, which is still on going. Within this bull Impulse, we are currently in Wave 3, which itself is...

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We are approaching the end of the 3-3-5 Expanding Flat correction that BTC has been playing out since April 2021. We are currently QUADRUPLE squeezed inside of the 50 DMA, the 78.6% Fib Retracement level, the upper price level of the previous correction (from Dec 2017), and the upper trend channel of Wave C of the current correction, which can build pressure and...

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Seeing an Ending Diagonal forming on Silver at the tail end of a 2 year 3-3-5 Expanding Flat correction. Could see upside soon.

PHICAPITALINVESTMENTS Updated 

Looks like a nominal 3-3-5 Flat correction with some overselling on Gold, should turn for upside soon.

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After breaking below the 50 & 200DMA, there are two areas of local Support remaining for WTI Crude Oil. First one being the major trend formed by connecting the dips in mid-April 2020 and December 2021 and extending outwards. This trend also intersects the 61.8% Fib support nicely at around $88, which we are now approaching. The Fib retracement was taken from the...

PHICAPITALINVESTMENTS Updated 

Looks like the flag on the 30min-1hr timeframe is developing as a 3-3-3-3-3 Contracting Triangle for upside. I believe we are starting the 3rd leg of Wave 4, which should take us up to around $4180 hopefully by tomorrow, followed by Wave 5 to around $4100 thereafter. We should see the larger time frame upside move towards ATH to resume after completion of this...