Primetrdr88

Primetrdr88

Well, now that Australian unemployment surprisingly dropped it gave the central bank’s hold-steady stance on rates some creedence. With Aussie sitting in the lower portion of ranges (E.G. here with AUDCHF)I like buying and holding the asset for longer time horizons. Small sizes, and take profits at levels, like the 200 MA, and jumping back in on pullbacks.

Primetrdr88

Swiss franc looking on its heels ahead of inflation figures later this week. Opposite, Yen may have buyers with recent hawkish rhetoric relative to past signals. I like the swing into previous support here. So I am take a short position with a wait-and-see stance. Looking for 40 pips or better depending on the market action.

Primetrdr88

UK delivered higher than expected inflation numbers overnight. The overall trend for the pair still on the upside trajectory. In the current environment GBP is a good asset to hold long. Although chart shows a range bound price action over time, technically looks like a buy. Note oversold momentum on stochastics. I took a long portion this morning and my target is...

Primetrdr88

Looking at this daily, you see the impact post-election “Trump-Trade” has had on the dollar, and also we see a weaker Euro, as German government is rattled, and economic data has not been very promising. Still the ECB hasn’t guaranteed cuts and has continued to emphasize inflationary pressures. One can easily argue either bullish or bearish for this pair at the...

Primetrdr88

After election moves, I still like adding longs under 1.08. Target is lower now - 1.09 Target for my troubles. Good bounce from below 1.07 yesterday shows decent support for the pair. Pullbacks could create good opportunities around FOMC. Don’t get stuck pre-announcement by oversizing.

Primetrdr88

Generally I like commodity assets after the election - which can be viewed as contrary to consensus - but GBPNZD should get some help lower after BOE rate cut. I am already in profit and added a second bullet taken this morning. Red lines are entries areas and green and yellow are targets 1 and 2. Trade small and handle drawdowns with proper techniques. See links...

Primetrdr88

With election volatility ahead, I’m adding small “bullets” to the third I still have in my EURUSD long last week. I expect dollar-selling going into Tuesday and with cut-bets on the table for this week’s Fed decision. This is a nice place to add longs (yellow circle). Target is 1.0960

Primetrdr88

Euro data overnight showed slowing manufacturing but expanding services PMI. While Eurozone offers a mixed bag, the outlook for a large or sped up rate of cuts at the ECB does not seem guaranteed at the moment. I will add to EURUSD longs under 1.08 handle and see the pair up to the daily 200 MA. Is the USD strength going to continue? It is possible but we are...

Primetrdr88

Risk Off Sentiment bringing commodity pairs lower. NZDUSD breaking into previous resistance pretty easily. I won’t consider longs until price gets to dashed green line.

Primetrdr88

Retracement to green line as it seems oil won’t go crazy from Mid East war shocks. Will reassess shorts at that level given upcoming ECB decision. Slow Monday overall with not many tasty setups.

Primetrdr88

Recent weak PMI data and geopolitical conflicts (Middle East, mainly) have me losing confidence in the risk-on environment. I am looking for shorts in AUDUSD and other commodity pairs and exotics. Watching hourly and 4-hr charts for strong sell bars. Stochastics already show we may be at the tops momentum-wise.

Primetrdr88

Now that the FOMC meeting has completed and we are left with rates 50 basis points lower, we expect a risk-on sentiment continuing in the markets. Australia’s labor report came in slightly better than expected and given those two factors, Aussie should push higher against the dollar. While the daily chart shows the park playing with recent highs, there is room to...

Primetrdr88

Fundamentally, Aussie is a buy since the Aussie Central Bank remains steadfast in keeping rates higher for longer. But we do see a clear downtrend formed on the 4-hour chart with lower highs and lower lows. With a plethora of central bank releases next week, as well as Aussie employment change release on Wednesday, this pair can present some volatility and good...

Primetrdr88

Continuing the descent, CPI did not change rate viewpoints at least for the sensible 25bps cut. These are the setups you take. Bounce tight key fib level AND 50 MA. Holding for 150 PIPS target. Check out my previous USDJPY short analysis for target on longer range horizon.

Primetrdr88

No surprises from CPI this morning. EUR has had a few days of selling pressure going into today’s session and CPI didn’t help Bulls. I’m not buying anymore EURUSD until the 50MA on the daily. However, I do still believe bulls are driving the ship and long range trend is of course long.

Primetrdr88

It is clear the Fed will cut later this month. This creates clear divergence from BOJ and I will be selling spikes all the way down to green line. Be careful and trade small as this is a volatile pair as any yen pairs are.

Primetrdr88

With the US ADP numbers this morning kind of disappointing, and with NFP tomorrow, markets are not “all-in” anywhere really. I see a decent scalping opportunity as EURUSD shows a strong hourly sell bar. I am looking for EURUSD to complete the drop to the 50MA HRLY (also the 15min 200MA). This is a scalp and my stop sits 5 pips above previous hourly bar (red dotted line).

Primetrdr88

Interesting pair to watch with major Non Farm Payrolls coming up Friday. A strong beat above estimates could send pair higher, passed previous failure at 20.22 level. Daily channel favors bulls however I expect a tough push higher unless economic data supports USD strength. Bearish for now with light shorts.