RealMacro

RealMacro Updated 

Here is a simple ratio chart of Home price/Household Income, YOY rate of change overlaid with plain home prices. A few things we can learn from this chart. 1. A 4 to 5 X ratio used to be the bottom and top for home prices relative to household income. the ratio in 2000 after decades of stability rose to 6X income. Today we have spiked to 7.7X income. Clearly,...

RealMacro

This is a very simple chart to read. Airlines hitting a 7-year resistance trendline. Airlines are very capital-intensive and would greatly benefit from rate cuts. Despite inflation pricing power has not risen sufficiently even nominally. Oil has not helped their situation. We have seen many airlines go bankrupt, close shop, and reduce capacity. This indirectly...

RealMacro Updated 

Usually, I do not put myself out there like this and front-run. However, I have sufficient evidence that makes me comfortable enough to make an exception this time. While I will not go into the methodology here (unfair to my subs) I will tell you that the chart is in a wave 3 up that is now head-testing the previous H&S pattern. Bulls make money Bears make money...

RealMacro Updated 

Unlike the previous call, I made in NVDA that was corrective. This double-top pattern is signaling a reversal pattern. From a trading perspective, this is a great risk/reward setup that is relatively simple. A CRACK! here will likely lead to at least the right side filling, with the potential deeper pullback (reversal) If on the other hand, it pops above...

RealMacro

Money has been around for over 10,000 years! Money is a derivative of private sector(PS) asset/labor producing. Money is not a derivative of Gov Gov borrowing money from the PS with interest to buy money without interest is a recipe for economic disaster. Gov spending currently is over 40% of GDP annually. It used to be under 10% Gov debt benefits the few...

RealMacro Updated 

Inverse H&S setup in play for Gold. At the moment it is high basing. Worth keeping an eye out for a CRACK higher. Just a matter of time in my opinion.

RealMacro

Any Time The Dollar Gets In This Range Bad Things Happen! With the exception of the 2008 GFC which confirmed we have entered Debt Deflation (Meaning the Gov will need to borrow more and more, faster and faster without any benefit to the real economy). A strong dollar is signaling something very bad is coming. Gun to head I would guess something like an Asian...

RealMacro

As rates persist higher as FED lowers rates, small-cap companies with limited pricing power, and high debt, needing to roll over debt are in trouble. The chart is showing a CRACK!

RealMacro Updated 

Unless we get one more up for a double top, mortgage rates have topped out after breaking bearish rising wedge structure. Note topped out does not mean it will collapse. it will take time for rates to drop further.

RealMacro

My initial post on INRUSD was back on Sept 2022 more than 2 years ago. My update is more of the same going forward. INR will continue to collapse despite its nominal economic growth. When the economy is very small relative to its population, the growth rate doesn't matter as if a major economy like the US has similar growth. It's like comparing apples to...

RealMacro

Since my initial post, TSLA has lost usmuch as 24% of its total value. Do not expect new highs anytime anytime soon. At best it will flip-flop at these levels for a while. Again this is the best case scenario. Fundamentally TSLA is way overvalued. it is not even something anyone can debate rationally. Despite the horrible fundies, I did offer a buy signal...

RealMacro Updated 

QQQ relative to money supply reveals that markets have never been this expensive in history, despite all the money that was pumped in over covid. Tulips! Caution is in order despite what "experts" may tell you.

RealMacro Updated 

Multi-year Channel Breaking key area at $120 last time this broke we were in a recession and then Covid hit. A reminder the US entered a recession PRIOR to covid in FEB 2020. most don't know that. Will this time be different? Do we need a recession for stocks to drop? I will answer these questions in the next video.

RealMacro

How expensive is the market? The average wage earner has to work 167 hours to buy 1 share of the S&P 500. A new historic all-time high! The markets are crazy expensive! The inflation no one shows you or talks about is driven by massive deficits and cheap money. Extreme Caution is in order!

RealMacro Updated 

TSLA From Erections Come Corrections while double topping. These are both very powerful structures that have formed and bulls should be very cautious. Taking profits here is advisable. Fundamentally speaking it goes without saying, that TSLA is stupidly expensive. Here is my previous bull call in TSLA that yielded a beautiful 50% plus return.))

RealMacro Updated 

The Crypto market cap is breaking $3 trillion but it is also double topping. Even though we may get a pullback here, I would not panic sell out. I would instead add to my BTC long position as I think it will be short-lived. I did not post my long trade here on TV as it was only for my subscribers. To be updated as needed.

RealMacro Updated 

TSLA cracking higher with a gap up breaking out of a wedge after several attempts this year, Personally, I don't like wedges since they have a tendency to crack one way and reverse the other. But having the entire US gov't giving you a free pass to do whatever you want without fear of being prosecuted for illegal activity and getting even more free money from...

RealMacro Updated 

Great Shorting opportunity in these names as meme stocks fail to make new highs. When Dentists, waitresses, lawyers and taxi drivers become trading gurus its Game Over! Dot com 2.0