TradeWithAdam

TradeWithAdam Updated 

Crude oil has been a tough trade lately as it has remained mostly range-bound in the past few weeks. The lack of trend has been seen in equities too (minus the trading from today). I've mostly stayed away from trying to make calls with the exception of this misstep a few days ago. Being wrong in trading is okay (and inevitable) but, for me, it's an invitation...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

With NVDA lowering guidance today and partially blaming a weakness in data centers, we see AMZN down 2% in sympathy. This is not surprising given that AWS is the most massive data center in the world. This price action perfectly forms the right shoulder of a H&S pattern on the hourly chart. As illustrated above, this very classic pattern comes after AMZN failed...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

After bottoming down at $42, crude oil has made its way back into the 50s and has been range-bound ever since. When this happens, there usually isn't much to do other than sit on your hands or attempt to play setups within the range. In the chart above, a 10-day trendline has formed with multiple touchpoints lending to the idea that this was strong support. The...

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Weibo, a Chinese platform similar to Twitter, was down 13% on a downgrade (buy to neutral) from Nomura today citing slowing growth in China. In 11 years of trading, I've seen analyst actions have both huge impacts on stocks and also no impact at all on the stocks they cover. It mostly depends on the analyst's timing, who they are and their previous track record...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

Gold failed to break out of a wedge pattern recently, but this morning is quickly rushing to break out of what was once overhead resistance as seen in the chart above. This is a quick note to buy gold on a breakout above 1292. Target: 1310 Stop 1284

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The recent strength of the S&P 500 has been undeniably formidable. After the recent breakdown and subsequent sharp sell-off, many traders (including myself) tried to reload their shorts at various places throughout the rally. Unsubstantial news about immediate trade deals fueled the rally last week and the rally refused to falter even when the news was rebuffed...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

Since Christmas Eve 2018 we've seen a vicious rally from the lows. On December 27th, I called for a rally to 2625 before I would try getting short again. Unfortunately, the pain trade has been on as nearly every technician called for resistance in the 2620-2630 S&P levels and my subsequent short call was stopped out. Now that we've seen overall market...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

A quick update to my last S&P 500 idea where I called for a breakout rally to 2620 before getting sold off ( see it here ). The chart above remains the same. I think we are seeing that very false breakout on a bullish wedge at 2600 on the hourly charts. There is a chance the bulls can take it to 2620 before selling it off, but that is less likely. Be...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

Two weeks ago, I made a bullish call on the S&P 500 and suggested that 2625 could be our upside target ( see it here ). Not much has changed. I don't think I'm doing anything novel by illustrating above the somewhat unconventional head and shoulders that has played out on the S&P 500. A lot of people have spotted this and it has driven a lot of technicians to...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

When panic takes over the market, gold is frequently the flight to safety commodity. Why? Something about the currency of a post-apocalyptic world being gold and guns. We certainly saw that flight to gold in this most recent market sell-off and despite the sharp rally we've seen in the S&P, gold has been reluctant to lose value. I've highlighted a bullish...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

In bear markets when volatility is high, so many stocks tend to have a correlation of 1 to the S&P 500 making it very hard to find stocks bucking the trend. Frequently, the only place to find secular bull markets in these environments are in penny stocks or biotech stocks that are in the midst of creating something new and marketable. With the advent of new...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

As I try to let my bullish projections play out , I always find it better to trade single stocks as longs rather than simply trade the futures. If you do it right, you should get a higher bang for your buck. Conversely, in bear markets like these, when it's time to go short you need only to trade the indexes. Highlighted in the chart is yet another inverse...

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I'm trying this again on an H4 chart with a new sell zone and an updated trendline that seems to have successfully served as resistance. The fundamentals still likely favor oil, however, I believe it is currently shortable in the 51.70 - 52.60 range with a stop above $53. The target remains $49.80 - $50

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Continuing with my search for stocks to be bullish on (before I turn decidedly bearish as the S&P approaches 2625), I arrive at the homebuilders. Much like ANF ( as highlighted in my last idea ), homebuilders did not really enjoy the fruits of a massive rally over the past 10 years. In the chart above, we see TOL has formed an almost perfect bullish triangle and...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

This is an update of my oil call from a few weeks ago where I suggested an inverse head and shoulders pattern might turn oil around. I believe that the current fundamental environment for oil is favorable so I would not like to fight the trend on any long term basis, but I do believe we can make a quick trade as oil runs into overhead trendline resistance on...

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I've drawn a lot of trendlines in my life and so many of them have turned out to be meaningless. The truth is that trendlines matter only when enough people (or machines) see them and are willing to trade off of them. I would say the more pivot points on a trendline, the more meaningful it is. And sometimes even after a trendline is broken, it stays very...

TradeWithAdam Updated 

Over the past few months, we've seen oil lead the way on a crash and we've seen equities follow suit. In mid-December, we were able to play a bearish wedge breakdown despite a production cut from OPEC which failed to support prices. Since then, a dip to the $42 level was bought with ferocity before the price stabilized over the past couple...

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Here is a quick update with a new buy-zone in place!